nhl under dogs system

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#26 Report User
Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by coolspot:

results   1-0

current fades

mn  1 unit

car  1 unit

buf  1 unit

Based off how you laid out the system you are supposed to bet only when you have a + return on the bet, so why does fading buf count when it is LA -1.5 for -115?  I like the idea on this system, I am a firm believer that simpler is better.
 
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#27 Report User
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99% of the time it's going to be an underdog.  I'm playing la because buf is in the bottom 3. you can skip it if you want. I feel the line is low enough that if la looses I will still make money with betting against buf as a dog for 2 units.  I wasn't sure what to do so I put it down. 
 
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#28 Report User
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i take it you're going by points, rather than w/l record?

i'm going to attempt to back test using w/l record, rather than points. it makes it more clear cut. that would give you buf, col, car.

might add in a few teams, and make the qualifying WP 33% or less (if you're getting + money or laying a little juice at those percentages, that's still a sick profit).

against a terrible team like buf, i'm of the opinion that it doesn't matter if you're laying minor juice on the puck, because they are now 1-7 SU, and thus 2-6 ATS. even if you're laying a little juice, that's still a great profit.
 
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#29 Report User
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anyone know of a good puck line conversion chart, or a way to estimate it?
 
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ok, i just did it without odds/units.

did it based on ML each day, if the WP was tied for 3rd worst, i used both teams. ended up with max 4 teams at one time. last day to start a chase was 11/30/13, because i didn't feel like going further.

a game vs another worst team resulted in a skip.

i played out all chases until there was a win, betting -1.5 if faded team was dog, ml if faded team was fave.

A 15
B 9
C 3
D 3
E 3

I 1 (FLA - this is skipping a game with EDM, which would have resulted in a win on G)

only teams used were NJD, PHI, BUF, EDM, FLA.

it sounds like you have more fluidity in which teams you're betting, which is probably a good thing. i don't know how to backtest past points, but i'm not going to try. i like this strategy, but it's obviously not perfect. clearly, you already know that, as your system description prepares for losses on game 4. gl to you. i'll be following along.
 
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#31 Report User
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results  3-0

fade  ed  2 units

fade  col  1 unit
 
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#32 Report User
Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by Ordinaryday6:

ok, i just did it without odds/units.

did it based on ML each day, if the WP was tied for 3rd worst, i used both teams. ended up with max 4 teams at one time. last day to start a chase was 11/30/13, because i didn't feel like going further.

a game vs another worst team resulted in a skip.

i played out all chases until there was a win, betting -1.5 if faded team was dog, ml if faded team was fave.

A 15
B 9
C 3
D 3
E 3

I 1 (FLA - this is skipping a game with EDM, which would have resulted in a win on G)

only teams used were NJD, PHI, BUF, EDM, FLA.

it sounds like you have more fluidity in which teams you're betting, which is probably a good thing. i don't know how to backtest past points, but i'm not going to try. i like this strategy, but it's obviously not perfect. clearly, you already know that, as your system description prepares for losses on game 4. gl to you. i'll be following along.

the skip on worst teams playing each other only comes at the beginning of a chase. I think we finish all chases out even i some teams were acing are in bottom 3.
 
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#33 Report User
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Is the play EDM -1.5?
 
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#34 Report User
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there both ml  dogs I just bet
 
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#35 Report User
Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by coolspot:


the skip on worst teams playing each other only comes at the beginning of a chase. I think we finish all chases out even i some teams were acing are in bottom 3.

oh ok. so that changes the date of 2 wins, not the game number they won on. the problem, again, is that FLA vs EDM series with the loss.

11/21/13, they play each other. it's during a chase on both teams, game G on FLA, and game C for EDM.

EDM wins by 3 goals, and they're the favorite. do you just go with the chase that's further along? or do you bet both sides at plus money and continue both chases?
 
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so, i was looking along the lines of your same system, but using the sdql, and this is what i found. i don't know if you guys use it, but if you do the query

WP>55 and o:WP<30 and season!=2012 and playoffs=0 and month!=10 and month!=2 and month!=4

i've included 2012 separately because the months are different, with the lockout, and the 3 months i'm not including all lost money over the past 8 years (october, the teams aren't established yet, i've always thought of february as a dog month, and april is crazy because it's the end of the season).

so you're betting on teams with a win percentage greater than 55% vs teams with a WP worse than 30%. i've done the ML as well as if you take the -1.5 if F or ML if D. i've included the return on investment for the ML, obviously i don't have that for the puck lines.

2013
ML: 27-9 (+12.5% ROI)
-1.5/D: 21-15

2011
22-8 (+16.3% ROI)
16-14

2010
14-10 (-5.5%)
10-14

2009
10-5 (+3.2%)
7-8

2008
12-2 (+20%)
7-7

2007
0-2 (-100%)

2006
24-7 (+13.6%)
11-20


2012 (again, no month specifications for this season)
23-10 (+20%)
14-19

so it's not perfect, there have been losing seasons, but you can make money just on the ML by betting these teams, though obviously the juice is higher. i wish there was a good system or conversion chart for ML to PL, but i've never been able to find one.

i've always been a fan of betting the ML of a fave, and wagering less on the puckline, ensuring a win if the Fave wins at all. perhaps the system i posted would lend itself to that.

not trying to hi-jack your thread, at all. just always interested in simplifications.
 
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#37 Report User
Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by Ordinaryday6:


oh ok. so that changes the date of 2 wins, not the game number they won on. the problem, again, is that FLA vs EDM series with the loss.

11/21/13, they play each other. it's during a chase on both teams, game G on FLA, and game C for EDM.

EDM wins by 3 goals, and they're the favorite. do you just go with the chase that's further along? or do you bet both sides at plus money and continue both chases?

I would go with chase thats further along
 
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#38 Report User
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results  3-0


fade  buf   1 unit

fade   mn  2 units
 
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#39 Report User
Posted:

This fade MN chase is brutal.  Glad I took the over in that game though.  
 
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#40 Report User
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results  3-0


fade  col  2 units
 
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#41 Report User
Posted:

3-0

fade mn  3  units

fade  ed  3 units
 
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#42 Report User
Posted:

4-0

current fades

mn  6 units

car  1 unit

buf  2 units

win  1 unit


 
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#43 Report User
Posted:

4 wins  1 loss

current fades

ed  6  units
 
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#44 Report User
Posted:

7 wins  1 loss

current fades

win  2 units

buf  1 unit

 
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#45 Report User
Posted:

7  wins  1  loss

current fades

win  3 units

buf  2 units
 
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#46 Report User
Posted:

8 wins 1 loss



current fades

win  6 units

car  1 unit

ari  1 unit

buf  1 unit

 
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#47 Report User
Posted:

8 wins 2 losses

current fades

car  2 units

ari  2  units
 
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#48 Report User
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results  8-2

fade   buf
 
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#49 Report User
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fade  buf  2 units
 
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#50 Report User
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current wins 8 wins  2 losses

current fades


car  3 units

ari  3 units

buf  3 units


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