nhl under dogs system

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This system is courtesy of ECC  over in the rx  forum


 
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Last year I finally came up with a system that worked. I did it on my own so it's not posted anywhere but I took the system into NHL as it has the same concept as this MLB RL system. You can find my NHL Puck Line system posted here http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=984316 If you followed that this year at $100 a unit as you can see the profit is at $4,865 right now. And that is in Hockey...tough to do. Only difference in MLB is a roster has a rotation of pitchers where NHL uses 1 or 2 goalies....Regardless the concept is the same. 

How it works: Well some of you will shy away from it as this IS a chase system. A 4 game MAX chase as after 4 games the Units risked is too high. Here's the concept. Using OVERALL standings we pick the bottom 3 teams to fade. The goal is to bet against a crap teams so you'll be wagering their opponent's RUN LINE -1.5 (99% of the time this will be +$$) If the team we are FADING is the Favorite then you play their opponent's MONEY LINE instead of RUN LINE. This change to ML is made because we are only looking for +$$ payouts! So the Unit scale is as follow;
GAME 1 = 1 UNIT (a loss is only -100)
GAME 2 = 2 UNITS (loss -200 = 300 total)
GAME 3 = 3 UNITS (loss -300 + 300 = 600 total for the chase)
GAME 4 = 6 UNITS (loss starts chase over and system sustains a loss, a win here at even +105 range is +630)

We start this after 2 full weeks of games so the teams have time to squeak out their wins and losses they usually don't get except in the first week of the season and usually the last week of the season due to player changes. So the system starts 2 weeks into the season and will end somewhere around the time where teams bench players or have a lot of call ups playing. Last year I only did the first half of the season and was up more money than I ever was playing MLB wagers...It's beyond me why I didn't continue to play this but I got caught up in other crap at work and home etc etc. So will be tracking this here this year. I have not backtested this besides the first half of last year on my own and if you want to count the concept of the system in NHL which is proven to be profitable.

So if you wish to follow, Enjoy and GL
If you wish to fade, GL 
If you wish to watch and or wait....thats fine too. I do suggest to start on GAME 1 of chases and not immediately into a 6 Unit play. But no one is stopping you from doing so. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong I will be doing a lot of posts from my phone.
Either way. GOOD LUCK & see you soon.

ECC
 
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Thanks for sharing another simple thought process.

I will not be playing, but the more thought processes that go into these forums the better.

 
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Thanks for sharing another simple thought process.

I will not be playing, but the more thought processes that go into these forums the better.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:

Thanks for sharing another simple thought process.

I will not be playing, but the more thought processes that go into these forums the better.


I like posting profitable systems the more the better
 
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Thank you for sharing
 
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Looks great will be following and can't wait for April as well!
 
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this sounds like a good plan. my question is, once the first 2 weeks are up, how often do you change teams to fade? is it just as the standings change (potentially daily)? so if we're in the middle of a chase and the standings change, we would finish that chase and add the new team?
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Ordinaryday6:

this sounds like a good plan. my question is, once the first 2 weeks are up, how often do you change teams to fade? is it just as the standings change (potentially daily)? so if we're in the middle of a chase and the standings change, we would finish that chase and add the new team?

finish the chase and add a new team,

 the only time he didn't play if when starting a chase one bottom team is  playing another bottem team.
 
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I'm going to try to keep track of units.
 
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How do you pick a spot where to start the chase? Is it away or home games? or just as you won the bet you start fading that team again on the next game? 
 
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I think it doesn't matter where to start from.  
 
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I show Edmonton and Buffalo as the first fades on the 22nd unless Edmonton wins on the 20th, then it's just Buffalo.

I have Edmonton, Buffalo, Carolina and Colorado as bottom 3 (there's a tie) and I'm using points, not records to track this.
 
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ECC uses points.  I think were good to go on the 22nd. I was going to try to keep track of units. but maybe we should just list plays. I think in case of a tie all  teams tied in bottem 3 get faded. so it could end up being like 4 teams, til  they start to separate more, 
 
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Curious, what do you do if they play each other? 

Say Buffalo plays Edmonton.  

both unit 1 plays? 
OR
buffalo unit 3 edmonton unit 2?

 
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play em both 1 on ML and 1 on -1.5?
 
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Quote Originally Posted by kevnb:

I show Edmonton and Buffalo as the first fades on the 22nd unless Edmonton wins on the 20th, then it's just Buffalo.

I have Edmonton, Buffalo, Carolina and Colorado as bottom 3 (there's a tie) and I'm using points, not records to track this.

Colorado has 3 points, Winnipeg only 2.

I show Edmonton (1 point), Wpg, Carolina and Buffalo (2 points each) as the bottom 4. If you need to remove one team from that it should be Carolina as they have only played 4 games while the other 2 point teams have player 5 and 6.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Colorado has 3 points, Winnipeg only 2.

I show Edmonton (1 point), Wpg, Carolina and Buffalo (2 points each) as the bottom 4. If you need to remove one team from that it should be Carolina as they have only played 4 games while the other 2 point teams have player 5 and 6.

that sounds good
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Alldaygambler28:

play em both 1 on ML and 1 on -1.5?

haven't thought about it.  hopefully won't run into it.
 
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current  fades

ed  gm1   1unit

buf  gm1   1unit
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Alldaygambler28:

Curious, what do you do if they play each other? 

Say Buffalo plays Edmonton.  

both unit 1 plays? 
OR
buffalo unit 3 edmonton unit 2?



ECC's RULE:

If the bottom teams we are fading face each other its a NO PLAY.

 
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So Fading Buffalo qualified as a play last night and the play was a win. They also qualify as a play tonight. Do you keep going against them?

I think Yes.


 
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Quote Originally Posted by kevnb:

So Fading Buffalo qualified as a play last night and the play was a win. They also qualify as a play tonight. Do you keep going against them?

I think Yes.


yes
 
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results   1-0

current fades

mn  1 unit

car  1 unit

buf  1 unit
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