It is brutally cold in Philly and one team will shrivel like a prune in a Acapulco sun! WRITE-UP!!!!

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My teams are the Jets and Giants.

What have I given you in the NFL this year?

Jets +3.5 over Tampa  W
Pats -13 over Jets L
Jacksonville +27 over Denver W
Buffalo -2 over Jets W
Cowboys +2.5 over Giants W
Dolphins +2 over Jets W

Only 6 NFL games out of 16 weeks? Yes. Because I don't give a crap about capping every week. I look for one winner and if I see it I share it so we all make money.

I live near Philly and I can say, right now, it is an ice box over here. This game will hit the teens with the wind chill.

You want no part of the outside. It is death weather, that is, if you accidently lock yourself outside of your house with no one around and you have no jacket, you will die. And I mean that. And it won't take long either. There is snow on the ground that isn't going anywhere anytime soon compounding the already frigid temperatures.

How are the Saints on the road and outdoors?

In the regular season, the Saints scored an average of 16 fewer points per game on the road than they did at home while allowing opponents to score six more points per away matchup. Their turnover differential of plus-six at home was flipped to minus-six on the road. They led at halftime of their home games 160-77 this season. On the road, they trailed at halftime 122-81. TheSaints were, for all practical purposes, a mediocre team when not in the confines of the Superdome.

Even worse was how the Saints performed in open-air contests, going 2-4 outdoors and 9-1 indoors -- a marked drop from the 6-1 outdoor mark they posted during their Super Bowl season. According to NFL Media's research department, under Payton, the Saints have a 2-5 regular-season record when the temperature is under 40 degrees and 0-1 in the postseason. 

This is not your typical road game given the cold and this will not be the same Saints team. There will be a raucous, drunken crowd on hand in Philly for this game. And the extra cold will do the Saints in. This is a pure situational play against the Saints on a brutally frigid day against a team that is surging.


 
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The Eagles have a tremendous ground game and they will pound it down the Saints throats today, where the game should be played, on the ground instead of through the air (FIRST in the league in rushing by a landslide averaging 160 a game!). 

What are you looking for if you are the Eagles? Keep the ball out of Brees' hands. 

How do you do that? Keep it on the ground and control the clock. Keep him cold and keep him in the sidelines. You have the BEST GROUND GAME IN THE NFL right here to bet on.

Also remember Rob Ryan is the Defensive Coordinator for the Saints. This is another guy you should fade when the heat is on. And the Eagles offense will be the only source of heat on this day. I know him well from those days against the Giants and when there was a pressure filled situation, he never had the gameplan to save his team (even lost on the road to the Jets this year if you remember when the Jets season was about to spiral out of control).

Another thing that bothers me is the line on this game. I waited all week for it to drop back down to 3 and it hasn't.

3 is a very tough line against the Saints and reminds me of the last minute Panthers cover against them this year where Saints backers were royally screwed. Vegas collected nicely on that game. I can't think this isn't sharp money on the Eagles keeping it at this key number. The Saints are the biggest public darlings for betting and anytime they get points the public salivates and can't get to the window fast enough.

If it were mild weather on the East Coast for this game, I'd lay off in this spot but given the snow, ice and below freezing temps., coupled with a hot Eagles team who dropped 54 on the Bears when they could have rested their stars (a must-win for the Bears), and a team that won on the road in Dallas with their season on the line silencing 91,000, the play is the hotter Eagles team.

Remember, the Saints are just one year removed from Bounty-gate. Making the playoffs with a coach who might not have returned because of the scandal is largely a success. It has been a big bouce-back year for them. But this game in this spot in this cold is going to be too much to bear for the Saints.

This isn't one of my most analytical write-ups but the situation calls for it. Tough line and tough pick to make but this is no time to run for the hills. With all the line movement on the KC game, I'd LOVE to see this one drop to 2.5 for some extra padding but it doesn't look like it will happen.

Eagles win this game and we swallow the points for the home field covered with ice.

The pick:

EAGLES -3 over SAINTS
 
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Totally see your angle but I think this saints team had enough of hearing they can't win outdoors.The defense is better than usual and the game against Carolina went down to the wire.


I will take a shot with the saints and 3.


Good luck

 
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Great write up and perspective.

I've been leaning Saints, thinking they might surprise with a good effort in bad weather outdoors. 

Will probably be pass, unless there's a late line move off of 3 (either way).

Cheers


 
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I live close to Philly but it's not that cold, cold enough though that it will affect the Saints.

That's a great point that nobody talks about, it's amazing how Ryan keeps getting jobs.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by ILPRATO:

Totally see your angle but I think this saints team had enough of hearing they can't win outdoors.The defense is better than usual and the game against Carolina went down to the wire.


I will take a shot with the saints and 3.


Good luck


I can assure you, this isn't just an 'outdoor' game and whether they like it or not, they will deal with the frigid cold unlike anything they've seen this year in the dead of winter. That is just one aspect to why if lay the points here. Good luck.
 
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Weather will effect both teams. Nasty. The team with the better QB, coach, TE and D will win this game the rest is a wash. Saints!

Eagle fans are all horny cause they come in almost with a losing record having beaten Chicago and Dallas. 

I dont care if this game is on the moon Eagles are getting their fools beat
 
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Saints are $$$. 
 
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Aren't prunes already shriveled??
 
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Quote Originally Posted by tboon:

Great write up and perspective.

I've been leaning Saints, thinking they might surprise with a good effort in bad weather outdoors. 

Will probably be pass, unless there's a late line move off of 3 (either way).

Cheers



It's tough to lay the 3 here I just think the weather definitely allows you to pull the trigger. Snow ice cold? Perfect Eagles ground game weather. 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

I live close to Philly but it's not that cold, cold enough though that it will affect the Saints.

That's a great point that nobody talks about, it's amazing how Ryan keeps getting jobs.

Yeah, but when you say 'not that cold' you have a bias as a northeasterner. 

It will get damn frigid as this game goes on. It was much colder last night but when it gets to low single digits, I get worried for both teams so I'll take the mid-teens.

Rex and Rob: snake oil salesmen who will be employed at some level for many years to come...
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Coatsy:

Weather will effect both teams. Nasty. The team with the better QB, coach, TE and D will win this game the rest is a wash. Saints!

Eagle fans are all horny cause they come in almost with a losing record having beaten Chicago and Dallas. 

I dont care if this game is on the moon Eagles are getting their fools beat

This is Eagles weather.

This is definitely not Saints weather.

Plain and simple. 

The contrast will be obvious.
 
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GL scalabrine

Eagles

 
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Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:

Aren't prunes already shriveled??

Well yes but to word 'plums' in the thread title just doesn't have that 'oomph' factor
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Macwestie1:

GL scalabrine

Eagles

 
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I get your thinking here but many Saints players have played in outrageously cold games in college. Brees at Purdue, Sproles at K State, Colston at Hofstra, Kenny Stills at OK and so one. Peyton has pulled out all the stopes here. Hell the Saints bus actually has a HUGE BULLSEYE on the outside of it (Seriously) encouraging Philly fans to throw garbage at it! Our D line has been much better against the run and you are sporting a rookie QB. Saints will be angry and looking to play their behind off. If they get beat by 4 or more I'll be shocked. I am betting they come in with a huge chip on their shoulder. Payton's been waiting all year to play the us against the world card and here it is.
 
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It's not that cold out.
Mid 20's & 5 mph wind

Will get in the teens tonight but again, no wind
 
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Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


This is Eagles weather.

This is definitely not Saints weather.

Plain and simple. 

The contrast will be obvious.

  TOTALLY agree with you. cold..does saints in But 1/2 point if you are uncomfprtable, but I am going to play Eagle alternative lines
 
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Scalabrine,   Great write up. I've been on the fence with this game all day, but i couldn't agree more that this game will be a ground battle. I live in " The great white north " called Canada. I know exactly what you are saying about the weather affecting any aerial attack tonight. 

I'm sold........Eagles it is

BOL to us 
 
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Thank you 
 
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What are you talking about in regards to the line?  You could of gotten under a field goal almost the whole week at many books.  
 
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Drew Brees top 3 QB in the NFL...I cant go against him tonight.
Brees will outplay Nick foles in my opinion... well one of us is getting paid tonight

 
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i'm almost always with you on these threads but not this one.  good luck anyway. 

and i promise not to bump your preseason thread in which you yelled at me for making a case for the jets season wins total to go over. 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Saint_John:

I get your thinking here but many Saints players have played in outrageously cold games in college. Brees at Purdue, Sproles at K State, Colston at Hofstra, Kenny Stills at OK and so one. Peyton has pulled out all the stopes here. Hell the Saints bus actually has a HUGE BULLSEYE on the outside of it (Seriously) encouraging Philly fans to throw garbage at it! Our D line has been much better against the run and you are sporting a rookie QB. Saints will be angry and looking to play their behind off. If they get beat by 4 or more I'll be shocked. I am betting they come in with a huge chip on their shoulder. Payton's been waiting all year to play the us against the world card and here it is.

Being in the cold in college is not the same as being in the cold 5 or 10 or 15 years later when you play in a dome half the season.

It's all about conditioning. You can train for a marathon and run one and be successful. But after a year of living in a pent house on park ave. and eating the finest foods, you can't rest on your laurels when the next marathon rolls around just because you trained for one and know the conditions associated with one. You are a different animal at that point.

This is a dome team and the stats bear that out. That can be exploited when we go to bet this game.
 
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