Ncaab ATS Streak Breakers for 2013/2014

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#2626 Report User
Posted:

Boise,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
 
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#2627 Report User
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0-4  to cover record (67-68 )currently since 2/2 (4-17Xavier covers
i doubt these 4 can do the same,Time to get that wager back & some
Madison
Pitt
Boise 
T Martin

0-4  to cover record (67-68 )currently since 2/2 (4-17) Past

0-4  to cover record (68-71 )currently since 2/2 (5-20)
 
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#2628 Report User
Posted:

Central FL 
 
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Q Ball 
 
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Posted:

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

posted this in anothers thread so thought i'd add here for FYI

I like to follow the top win streak and loss Streak teams after the first week of ST as i find a lot of teams go on long win streaks due to their hitting and Pitching although no body rarely plays the entire game or at least finish game until near the end of ST and games can get called early due to many things

I have records of last 3/4 years of ST for all teams so i usually look to see who did the best over the last few years although i know a new year but managers usually go in same direction and you do see a standard in game flow as how manager runs his trials of players and pitchers

last year Kansas City had 10 game win streak so i will be watching them 
Seattle lost its first game and then went on a 9-0 win streak
Cinn had a 1-8 loss streak in their first 9 games

Not saying all these teams will repeat but some will as they always do

In 2012 Toronto went on an 18 game win streak
Seattle went on a 6-1 win streak its first 7 games
Oakland had a 7-0 win streak but was at mid season in ST
If you can catch these win and loss streak teams early you can usually get a good start into season with a nice bank roll

Another weird strange stat

Arizona,Cubs,and Cards have lost is first ST game in each of the last 3 years
Likewise Colorado,Marlins,Brewers,Detroit, all have won their first ST game in the last 3 years

Cinn last year although scoring 25 runs in their first 3 games in ST in 2013 they Lost all 3 games 10-11,10-13,5-7
 
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#2631 Report User
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back to ncaab as we have a lot today
Odds makers getting better control of STREAKS per records

0-3 record to cover (121-144)
Temple
Creighton
Uab
Csf
s dakota
Rider
Jax St
__________________
0-4 streak record to cover (68-71)
West Kentucky
Loymyr Mt
N Dakota St
____________________
0-5 Streak record to cover (31-33)
Grn Bay Pheonix
S Alabama
N Colorado
__________________
0-6 win streak to cover (13-16)
Ole Dom
Cal poly
N Ariz
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3-0 win streak to NOT Cover (154-124)
Smu
Tulsa
Fla Atl
Pepp
Neb Omaha
Fairfield
E Wash
_________________________
4-0 streak record to not cover (63-55)
Tx St
San Diego St
___________________
5-0 streak record to not cover (19-30) looking to continue to 6-0
St Johns
Murray
Sac St
____________________
6-0 win streak record to Not cover (15-12)
Cleve St
L Beach St
 
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#2632 Report User
Posted:

Stevo,  help me to understand please.  St. Johns has covered their last 5.  If they are looking to not cover, how will they be going to 6-0?
Thanks. TTK

 
 
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yes they are on a 5-0 win streak and system is looking for them to not cover at record 19-30 but the 5-0 record is they will cover at record of 30-19 so we reverse play and see them go to 6-0
 
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understand the streak system says all streaks must stop both win and loss otherwise everybody would play win streaks to continue and loss streaks to continue thus play opposition
Odds makers job is to balance both and records show where they do good and not do good 

Records show how many do stop and how many continue so if a team on a 5-0 win streak are expected to not cover then you play them to not cover but if record is 30-19 they continue then we go with the streak record that 5-0's will continue to 6-0
 
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#2635 Report User
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30 covers to go to 6-0 percentage record is 61% play they will go to 6-0 and just 39% they don't cover
 
 
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the no cover record dictates the way to go for all win streak and just the opposite for loss streaks but their records of how they are doing dictates approach esp with high %'s to the play

60% is borderline as i like 70% or better for larger Wagers 10 units or more but at 60% stream minimum we play for 1 unit
 
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#2637 Report User
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Is the reverse play a strategy you have instated to offset the BM's?
 
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look at 0-3 loss streak there have been to date 265 Loss streaks at 0-3 to date as of yesterdays close
121 have covered and 144 have not and gone to 0-4
Thus you have a percentage of 46 % they will cover and 44% they go to 0-4
do to low % we pass all plays at 0-3 as streak minimum must be at 60 or higher for a play and the higher the larger the wager
 
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I follow the records as that tells me the odds makers ability to apply the proper point spreads on teams as this system does not care about the teams or the point spreads as its all about the odds makers ability to place the correct point spreas on games to balance out the play
 
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By just looking at streak records i know all the teams a week b 4 they play who i will be on as to me it does not matter home/away,who's playing in game as to me that is the odds makers job to figure out all that.All i do is follow their records of past games and the 5-0 streak records say 5-0 streak teams will continue to 6-0 as their record is 30-19 they will regardless of everything else,
 
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Don't give your secrets Stevo1. People who ask too many questions about how you make your picks work for LV. So please for the love of breaking Vegas books dont explain too much. They will adjust. Thanx!!!!!
 
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Understand these records are the odds makers report card on how well they do on placing correct point spreads on plays with win and loss streaks and Vegas IMO charts their ability to place the correct spread as they are the ones loosing $$$ money if odds makers screw up

Surely a guy who sees a team on a 5-0/10-0 win streak is surely more likely to play them to win and Joe Public and his 10 dollar and 10 unit wager will be on them along with many others as its just common sense to follow a winner and fade a looser and that is when the odds makers correct their errors of past and screw both
 
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they can't adjust as it then places them into another problem and it has been going on for years

Just look at NBA they are right on but with Ncaab your dealing with a bunch of 20 year olds more interested in getting LAID than playing ball
 
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#2644 Report User
Posted:

how many of you guys would place a wager on a team at 0-11
 for 10 units

I would as no team this year has gone to 0-12
 
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and yes there were 2 at 0-11 that covered and that is now 200% to cover at 0-11
 
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So what's the final plays today Steve? I love when u preach like this it gets me all pumped up for the night!
 
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We only have 3 plays t nite 

5-0 streak record to not cover (19-30) looking to continue to 6-0
St Johns
Murray
Sac St
gonna play them all for 5 units each and parlay for 1 unit although at just 61% to cover but just 39% reversal

 
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0-4  to cover record (68-71 ) since 2/2  (5-20)1-3 yesterday(reverse 3-1)

we have 3 teams at this level 
West Kentucky
Loymyr Mt
N Dakota St
have to play opposition at 20-5 = 80% 
5 units each

 
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USC +4 tonight Stevo lets see if i can keep this roll going i have picked up everyday this week ( knock on wood)  
  n  
 
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sorry almost forget my 0-4 streaks to not cover

so with 6 plays that's enough
Play these teams opposition
West Kentucky
Loymyr Mt
N Dakota St

5-0's to cover
St Johns
Murray
Sac St

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