Ohio State/Northwestern breakdown

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Posted: #1

I had the Bucks teased down last week over Wisky....but I did not like what I saw out of the defense at home.  That was a situation that should have been a "shut down" type of atmosphere, and yet they gave up right at 400 yds of offense.

Northwestern can attack  in a multitude of different ways, with Cain Kolter running read option, and Trevor Simien throwing the ball.  I think that Simien is the dark horse in this game......he has the ability to light it up if need be, and should have success against OSU through the air..they leaked 295 to Stave for Wisconsin.  Strikes me as a bit much to give up at home.

This Game could develop into a shootout.  One has to figure that Braxton Miller is going to get his #'s....Northwestern is going to need to have a gameplan in place to stick the wood to him when he runs, or it will be a 42-35 type of shootout.

I think Fitzgerald is up to the task, but NW is going to have to let it all hang out to win; and Fitz has a tendency to go conservative in spots and trust his D a little too much....and that is not good when your D is ranked 119th vs the pass.  Not good at all.

Of course, the D numbers for NW are skewed a bit because they have boatraced weaker opposition thus far, and have gone to a baggy zone early on in games, and also played everybody on the roster.

There is value here, but I have to go deeper to find if it is worth my money.

Any input is welcomed.....

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Posted: #2

ohio st +7.5 and over 45.5 here in two of a 4 leg 13 pt teaser.....I can't see it losing.


 
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Posted: #3


I see it 37-31 ohio state.

flat I would take over and pass on the ohio state side.
 
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Posted: #4

38-28 OSU
 
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Posted: #5

I'll offer you what I can.....

**  Ohio State offense can, and will score on NW defense.  NW will not be as tough on the run game, LB'ing is not the same caliber as Wisky

**  Ohio State will be able to pass effectively aganst NW also, as you stated NW pass defense is definately a weak spot.

**  NW will have the advantage of knowing that CJ Barnett is out for the year at Safety, and Roby is coming off the worst week of his career.  But does NW have a receiver the quality of Abroditis to take advantage of the relatively weak OSU d backfield.  Don't know for sure, but I think Abro is all big 10.  I think the buckeye D backfield might look a bit stronger in this game.

**  How can you say that Ohio State's defense was poor at home?  They held the BEST running team in the Big 10 to slightly more than 100 yards rushing...I think you discount the quality of team that Wisky has, they are good and they always play well in Columbus.

This is going to be a good and tough game.  In the end, the key factor for me is that I dont think NW is going to be able to keep up scoring with Ohio State.  Haven't looked at the over on this game yet, but I might be tempted to take it....

Personally, I will have something on the buckeyes to cover this....but will likely wait until gametime to see the line...and might even buy the points down like I did last week against wisky...couldn't take the 7 points, bought it down to 5, and won my bet....

Good luck this week....

 
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Posted: #6

They shut down Wisconsin's running game which was the game plan, and just as they hoped Stave couldn't throw enough to win the game.
 
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Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by buckeyechuck:

I'll offer you what I can.....

**  Ohio State offense can, and will score on NW defense.  NW will not be as tough on the run game, LB'ing is not the same caliber as Wisky

**  Ohio State will be able to pass effectively aganst NW also, as you stated NW pass defense is definately a weak spot.

**  NW will have the advantage of knowing that CJ Barnett is out for the year at Safety, and Roby is coming off the worst week of his career.  But does NW have a receiver the quality of Abroditis to take advantage of the relatively weak OSU d backfield.  Don't know for sure, but I think Abro is all big 10.  I think the buckeye D backfield might look a bit stronger in this game.

**  How can you say that Ohio State's defense was poor at home?  They held the BEST running team in the Big 10 to slightly more than 100 yards rushing...I think you discount the quality of team that Wisky has, they are good and they always play well in Columbus.

This is going to be a good and tough game.  In the end, the key factor for me is that I dont think NW is going to be able to keep up scoring with Ohio State.  Haven't looked at the over on this game yet, but I might be tempted to take it....

Personally, I will have something on the buckeyes to cover this....but will likely wait until gametime to see the line...and might even buy the points down like I did last week against wisky...couldn't take the 7 points, bought it down to 5, and won my bet....

Good luck this week....

Thanks for the input....interesting points. I agree with nearly all of them that you made for Ohio State....they will score, running and throwing.  NW will be flying early vs the run, but they will wear down, and eventually begin to leak.   "Eventually" means mid 2nd quarter.

I am not really interested in recapping last Saturday's Wisconsin game, but I do think that Wisconsin was forced out of the run game because they got behind...10pts at half, and 17 in the 3rd quarter.  Situationally, Wisconsin wasn't allowed to pound it.  I think that if the game was closer, or Wisky got a lead, then the rushing yards would be substantially higher.

Wisconsin is a good football team, I am not arguing that point. But OSU was playing essentially a National Title Quarterfinal game....at home, vs a respected opponent as the Game of the Week.  For a squad that has not lost a game in nearly a season and a half, the defense did not blow me away...I was expecting to see Wisky get stoned, much like Ole Miss did in Bama (not an SEC idiot Homer making the comparison of OSU to Bama, just using Bama shutting out Ole Miss as an example of a high ranked team playing dominate defense at home.)

In my humble opinion, the situation will never be better to play defensively for OSU than it was in the Wisky game....and they still gave up 400yds of O and 24 pts. 

And if that is the best that OSU can play on defense, then yes I have questions about them holding up on the road vs a team that will attack in many different ways, enter NW.

A few more things on OSU D....they gave up 503 yds vs Cal, but dominated vs SDSU, Buffalo, and the other cupcakes...in my eyes that could be why the defensive stats look pretty good for OSU.

In any case, thanks for the input and discussion...still sorting threw all of this stuff, and it may fall into a no-play or a shot on the over.

 
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Posted: #8

I actually like the way OSU's defense matches up against NW. Don't bet NW.
 
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Posted: #9

Ohio State is in a flat spot IMO, coming off a big night game at home.

I'm a die hard Buckeye fan, wouldn't play it -7.

However.

2 team 6 point teaser

Buckeyes-1
Over 55
 
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Posted: #10

ohio st went in run only mode in the 2nd half and did all it could to keep it under the game still got to 55... how this doesn't go wayyyyy over the total is beyond me.. noway im on the under .. 
 
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Posted: #11

Good discussion.  Very interesting game between 2 pretty good teams.  

NW Positives: Off bye week; have prepped for this game for awhile; had CMU and Maine the 2 weeks before their bye game so a lot of OSU prep; kept Mark out of those games to make sure he is healthy; do not have a WR like Abbrederis - however they have a much deeper group of WRs in general which should match up well vs. OSU secondary; not a power running team but more zone read which OSU has had some trouble with (Cal) more so than power running teams; Fitzgerald a very good coach, but pretty much negated by Meyer.

NW Negatives: NW has lived off of defensive turnovers and turnovers for scores this year; OSU is NOT loose with the ball at all; very poor pass defense in the secondary; 

OSU Positives: As balanced an offensive team as there is in B1G; getting much healthier on offense; have the weapons to attack NW through the air given the success of their running game; OSU can score a lot of points and going against a pretty poor defense minus the turnover scores.

OSU Negatives: 6th straight game for OSU w/ no rest; coming off of a very tough/physical game which pretty much decided their B1G division; playing at night at a very tough place to play at night despite small crowd.

Should be a very entertaining game; Vegas has it as a OSU 34-27 victory.  IMO the Over is probably the best play.  Both teams averaging over 40 pts/game and don't think either defense matches up well to shut down the other team.  I would have to lean to NW on the side, but not really confident in that.  Normally love NW as a home dog, but OSU is tough as the coaching advantage is negated.  NW is well rested and should have a very good game plan given the schedule prior to this game.  But not confident NW can keep it within the number if they don't win the TO battle.  Still lean NW but think that is a good number just like last week vs. UW.
 
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Posted: #12

If you lean northwestern. ...you have never seen either of these teams play
 
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Posted: #13

Northwestern is a good solid team. They are not a great team. There is not comparison between these two. I have seen both played. Urban Meyer will not get out coached, as he is one of the best coaches in the nation. Let's remember if Ohio St was not banned from bowl eligiblity last year, it could of very will have been Alabama vs Ohio St for national championship. Ohio st is the better team overall, I thought this line should have been at -14.5 but Ill take the single digit favorite any day. Let make $$$$ BOL boys!!
 
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Posted: #14

Think about the mindset of State, coming off an undefeated probation year, they have to be thinking if we do that again then we are playing for a chip, people say they went undefeated last year because there was no pressure on them, I tend to believe if that was the case they should have been caught sleeping at least once last year but no, no true letdowns last year and I dont see it in this game.
 
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Posted: #15

does n western play fast?
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