I'm on the same exact 4 as you Stats. I see the 20 car dominating and getting snookered by Smoke like last year. Kenseth has to have the long green flag run to win these plate races, otherwise he craps the bed on a crucial restart.
Might throw a bit on Juan and Burton, they are driving better of late, and I will probably hedge a bit and put some on the 48. He usually crushes everyone when he has been wronged the week before.
Only thing about Joe that concerns me is he doesn't know how to get out front. He's only led 4 laps in the last 3 yrs at Daytona. But I agree he'll be worth a look if the odds are right.