I question about trends

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Posted:

If you flip a coin 100 times and there are occasions when heads comes up six or seven times in a row, is that a trend or just luck. Isn't it a 50-50 proposition every time, no matter what has happened in the past? "Trends" seem  to be the same thing . I welcome input on this because that's the way I see these so-called trends.
 
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Posted:

Depends on the trend.
 
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Posted:

In the NBA you look at patterns - which are constant

Trends can easily be broken. 

In your analogy, you need to take a hard look at that coin and make sure one side isn't weighted more than the other (which most coins are to some extent).  If you truly the coin is weighted to the point where your chances become around 55-60%, you may want to look into playing that side every time.  Over 100 flips, you'll be up a little. 

As best said by kap on this forum, sports betting is a marathon not a race.  Get rich quick schemes will bury you quickly. 
 
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Okay, for linewatcher, provide me a trend that you are talking about.

As for your post Mikado, even the most rookie gambler knows about the marathon/race thing. If you don't realize that, you need to stop gambling. In your initial example, I don't believe the sportsbooks are so stupid to weight the coin on one side or the other. The oddsmakers aren't gong to put themselves in that position, so I don't buy your argument at all.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by atlas1234:

Okay, for linewatcher, provide me a trend that you are talking about.

As for your post Mikado, even the most rookie gambler knows about the marathon/race thing. If you don't realize that, you need to stop gambling. In your initial example, I don't believe the sportsbooks are so stupid to weight the coin on one side or the other. The oddsmakers aren't gong to put themselves in that position, so I don't buy your argument at all.


The books don't have to win every game you know.  They concede from time to time to create the illusion that the public is the winning side. 

Why wouldn't oddsmakers put themselves in that position every once in a while making an off line - it happens every week during the regular season and a few times during the playoffs.  Not even saying this line is off.  Why can't a game 7 be one of those games where the line is altered a bit to attract more one sided action.  Most of those who win tonight will just give it back to the books anyways.
 
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Posted:

unlike flipping a coin, there is athletic ability involved and the motivation behind that ability which isn't as simple as 50/50 each game.  Although some trends are in fact fairly worthless, such as a team playing on Wednesday's, etc.
 
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Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by Mikado:



The books don't have to win every game you know.  They concede from time to time to create the illusion that the public is the winning side. 

Why wouldn't oddsmakers put themselves in that position every once in a while making an off line - it happens every week during the regular season and a few times during the playoffs.  Not even saying this line is off.  Why can't a game 7 be one of those games where the line is altered a bit to attract more one sided action.  Most of those who win tonight will just give it back to the books anyways.

I agree with you 100 percent on that. Lines can be off. But what does that have to do with trends. You look at a line, determine that it is off, and then you make the play based on that. But not on what the "trend" is.
 
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Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by dimndimn:

unlike flipping a coin, there is athletic ability involved and the motivation behind that ability which isn't as simple as 50/50 each game.  Although some trends are in fact fairly worthless, such as a team playing on Wednesday's, etc.

And that's what I'm saying. If a team has won five straight games on Wednesday, does that REALLY mean they have a better chance of winning on a Wednesday. I think that is an anomaly in the results, but not at all an indicator that a team wins more on Wednesdays than Thursday or Fridays.
 
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So you saying, OMG, it's Wednesday, and Team A always wins on Wednesday, then there's a better chance they're going to win. I've got to beat on Team A tonight.


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