Money Ball 4.18.2013

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http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101568922

If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.

 

MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI

MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI 

MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units

4.17.2013, 5-3, -+13.55 Units, +33.9% ROI

YTD – 41-39-10, +29.07 Units, +7.42% ROI

5 & 9 Innings – 4/13/13 ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays

All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted

Mets F5 (-105) FG (+130) (Niese / Garland)

Nothing against Jon Garland here, overall I like his consistency, but the Mutts offense projects much better against him than does the Rockies versus Niese. The Rockies have seen 4 lefty starters this year and to date are averaging only 1.59 earned runs per 9 innings. That is in 22.2 innings versus a pretty average group. They are just 1-3 in the 9 inning game and 0-3-1 for 5 innings. Even Aaron Laffey won  a 5 inning decision against them; although that was a slugfest they went on to win, their only win versus a lefty starter and one that does not belong in the major leagues (imo).

Diamondbacks F5 (+102) FG (+106) (Corbin / Hughes)

Someone on the board suggested yesterday the D-backs, especially the younger players, were “intimidated” by their visit to Yankee Stadium. That guy needs to get his head on straight as far as I am concerned. Today’s young players, especially the projected stars of tomorrow, are not intimidated by anything. Mike Trout carried the Angels on his back last year, Bryce Harper thinks he belongs in the HOF already, and Wade Miley didn’t look intimidated at all yesterday, besting Sabathia for the first 5 innings and giving us a nice dog winner at +142. Patrick Corbin is a comer and I doubt he is intimidated either. At 2-0 with a 1.50 era and a victory over Kershaw why should he be? Phil Hughes has had plenty of time to look like the next great Yankee starter and hasn’t shown diddly squat in my opinion.  

9 Inning Totals

Rays-Orioles Under 7.5, -115 (Muchlinski (neutral)-Price-Gonzalez)

When I play an under I have to think of the umpire as part of my “team”, so today my team is Muchinski, Price and Gonzalez versus the offenses of the Rays and Orioles. I think my team has a very clear and decided advantage. The wind should be about 16 mph from right to left at game time and possibly shifting a little more out to left as the game goes on, but I don’t expect the lefty Price to give up any jacks in that direction and the Rays are not likely to take anybody deep in any direction, wind assisted or not.

BOL

 
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Nice writeups. Stay hot! 
 
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Nice little roll you're on.......keep up the good work.
 
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like em all
 
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Like the +130 with the Mets. Where did you find that price?

Good Luck.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Luckydan:

Like the +130 with the Mets. Where did you find that price?

Good Luck.
Sorry, it is a typo. Probably left over from last night. I keep the format and fill in the new info. Should be +115 and I will get it straight in my record.

 
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GL Key, I always enjoy your write-ups and feel that we look for similar stats sometimes.  I'm with you on the Mets 1st 5, and considering how bad the Yankees are against lefties, may join you on the Zona 1st 5.


 
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Mets are red hot! Amazing how they traded a great pitcher and now they are killin it...

TOR stinks now

Angels stink to high heaven. Hunter and Wells are doing great.

Go figure...maybe it's the organizations?

 
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Good luck tonight, KE  
 
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Good luck Boss!
 
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What are your thoughts on the Sea-Det game, Det-162 & 6.5, Sea is  UN 14-38 in day games last 2 yrs.. Iukuma is 2-0 with a 2.18 era, but the over in the series  has gone Over alot when Verlander is pitching against Sea. Sea or the o/u?
 
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Quote Originally Posted by gbpackman:

Mets are red hot! Amazing how they traded a great pitcher and now they are killin it...

TOR stinks now

Angels stink to high heaven. Hunter and Wells are doing great.

Go figure...maybe it's the organizations?

And add A.J. Burnett to the list. There are sometimes no apparent reasons for the complete turnarounds we see. The only answer seems to be to be to keep up with the latest info, gauge it, and roll with the punches.

 
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Oh, and by the way, organizations are what they are, but more consistent good or bad than the players.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by gbpackman:

Mets are red hot! Amazing how they traded a great pitcher and now they are killin it...

TOR stinks now

Angels stink to high heaven. Hunter and Wells are doing great.

Go figure...maybe it's the organizations?


 They just got swept in a doubleheader two days ago , and are .500 for the year 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by ShootDaClubUp:


 They just got swept in a doubleheader two days ago , and are .500 for the year 

Just saw that

 
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GL, on rays under large. hit em all.
 
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GL today.

Took the Rockies/Mets Under after not being able to go solely with the Rockies
 
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GL  
 
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Whether the Mets or Rockies are hot seems to be a debatable topic, but has very little to do with today's matchup. Just having some fun with the numbers here, but

Rockies, 5 & 9,  1-6-1, 1.59 offensive era versus lefty

Mets 5 & 9, 8-8, 7.64 offensive era versus righty

 

 
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Best of Luck .....
 
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Thought I'd see you on Iwa at +150.... 

Iwa > Verlander

Good luck today 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by purpledays:

Thought I'd see you on Iwa at +150.... 

Iwa > Verlander

Good luck today 

I guess I have made it clear I love the kid, but the combined advantages of Verlander and the Tigers offense put it a little out of reach, even as a value play. Sorry.

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