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Record: 25-28      +2.23 units

 

1-2 yesterday, losing about a quarter of a unit. Good win with San Diego. Three for today, still considering the Astros.....

 

South Siders +138 Not sold on Josh Johnson at all right now.....

 

 

Diamondbacks +113 I'm taking the better team......pitching is probably about even both can be good and both can be less than good. I think the D'backs have an advantage offensively.

 

 

Kansas City +172 Hate going against Medlen and the very hot Atlanta Braves but I think the number justifies it. Guthrie has been excellent with KC. Both teams have excellent bullpens.......game should be a close, low-scoring affair.

 

 

 

 

Good luck all!

 
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Thinking of adding the Royals. Line is about 20 cents to high to me. 
 
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Hoping to see you on SEA today with Harang as I always know if you are on my dog it is a live one.  BOL today Mac!
 
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another wannabe sharp taking the largest dog of the day for "value"...fading the braves with medlen on the mound? Can't wait to see your bet lose.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Minesweeper:

another wannabe sharp taking the largest dog of the day for "value"...fading the braves with medlen on the mound? Can't wait to see your bet lose.

a wannabe? mmac's plays are a must read DAILY! get lost and take your garbage somewhere else
 
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Quote Originally Posted by BIG_E711:


a wannabe? mmac's plays are a must read DAILY! get lost and take your garbage somewhere else


he'll go 2-1. Not a bad percentage at all. But his rationale for the royals ML is terrible....

"Hate going against Medlen and the very hot Atlanta Braves but I think the number justifies it." so that means if the price was lower (say, +145) you wouldn't be fading a red hot team with its top (at worst #2) pitcher going at home? Cool story bro.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Minesweeper:



he'll go 2-1. Not a bad percentage at all. But his rationale for the royals ML is terrible....

"Hate going against Medlen and the very hot Atlanta Braves but I think the number justifies it." so that means if the price was lower (say, +145) you wouldn't be fading a red hot team with its top (at worst #2) pitcher going at home? Cool story bro.

If you don't understand the rationale you really should stop betting.  He is taking a strictly mathematical approach and feels that the Royals have a better shot a winning the game than the odds dictate and is taking a mathematical gamble.  There are TONS of people that take the same approach.  To answer your question the answer is YES if the odds were different he would not take this gamble.
 
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Looks good, mac. BOL today.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Minesweeper:



he'll go 2-1. Not a bad percentage at all. But his rationale for the royals ML is terrible....

"Hate going against Medlen and the very hot Atlanta Braves but I think the number justifies it." so that means if the price was lower (say, +145) you wouldn't be fading a red hot team with its top (at worst #2) pitcher going at home? Cool story bro.

You're right that I wouldn't play KC at +145.......didn't think that was too hard a concept to grasp.

And you're right that this play will probably lose, it will lose more often than it will win, another concept that isn't too hard to grasp.

But, I assume the Braves and Medlen will both lose games this year......maybe I step in garbage and today's the day. Guthrie has very solid numbers since he joined KC.........He has the ability to keep the game close and in a close game anything can happen and by betting KC, I only need the ball to bounce my way 37% of the time.......maybe it does, maybe it doesn't.

Baseball is a marathon and not a sprint.......I'm going to lose a lot of games this year. I don't have a crystal ball and don't know which ones will win and which ones will lose prior to the game so I try to give myself an advantage in every game I play......hopefully it works out over the course of a season. But I don't obsess over whether or not I win any particular game, that's just foolish.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by jesron1269:

Hoping to see you on SEA today with Harang as I always know if you are on my dog it is a live one.  BOL today Mac!

I'm actually still considering Seattle.....may play later.


GL today jesron

 
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And by the way, KC is not the largest dog of the day
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Minesweeper:

another wannabe sharp taking the largest dog of the day for "value"...fading the braves with medlen on the mound? Can't wait to see your bet lose.

You have no concept of what he is doing here so please refrain from commenting on it. 
 
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I would like to fade JJ, but these Sox have burned a couple times this past week. Hope they cash for you, mac.
 
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GL   Leaning Atlanta RL.
 
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Good luck mac!
 
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