Finished Year 12-12-1 with a couple dog ml loses too.
3-0 run in VCU game was very good. Maybe I am poised for my usual run late sorta like Temple
Anyways, this thread is a breakdown of who plays who, some matchups, chances of winning and all that...first on to who plays who...
Thursday Opening Round: #8 Richmond vs. #9 Charlotte 12:00 p.m. #5 Butler vs. #12 Dayton 2:30 p.m. #7 Xavier vs. #10 St. Joseph's 6:30 p.m. #6 Massachusetts vs. #11 Geo Wash 9:00 p.m
Friday Quarterfinals: #1 St. Louis vs. #8/9 Winner 12:00 p.m #4 La Salle vs. #5/12 Winner 2:30 p.m #2 VCU vs. #7/10 Winner 6:30 p.m #3 Temple vs. #6/11 Winner 9:00 p.m Saturday Semifinals: #1/8/9 Winner vs. #4/5/12 Winner 1:30 p.m #2/7/10 Winner vs. #3/6/11 Winner 4:00 p.m Sunday Championship: Last 2 teams left
Ok, so what I plan to do here is assess each team in a few sentences, mixed with the actual odds of them winning the tournament, along with my thoughts on their chances.
I will assess each teams chances from a 1-10 scale. 10 being extremely good to 1 aka go home. A 5 is probably "decent". I came up with this number based on a few criteria...in no order
1) How they are playing now 2) Their draw (aka how they match up, past success vs. teams etc) 3) Their ability to win away from home 3) Their depth (4 straight days for 8/12 to win it) 4) Their experience
to name a few...alphabetical order why not?
Butler: 7.5+500 7-3 in their last 10, with losses to VCU, STL and Charlotte. They have played better as of late, and it all centers around Rotnei Clarke. He has one of the quickest releases Ive seen from a guard. This team does lack a true PG, but they play smart, and have an amazing coach in Stevens. He has them prepared. They can play strong inside, Smith has good low post moves, and Jones and Marshall are tough. Good shooting from 3 can come from hot hands in Dunham or Clarke. Basically this team is not quite as good as recently, but they are Sweet 16 worthy. Clearly this team is due or die almost nearly as much as Temple/Wyatt. However if Clarke has a bad game, there are guys that can pick up the slack. They beat Dayton on the road, and lost by 1 pt @La Salle. They would then most likely face STL of whom they lost both home and away meetings. A 7-8 road record is nice, with some big wins on neutral courts against the likes of Indiana and Marquette.
Charlotte: 2.5+1500 From a team on the bubble to a team that might not see the NIT sure has caused some head scratching in the Carolinas. Henry is such a good player, albeit not the greatest shooter. They are extremely weak from beyond the arch (26%), but they rebound very well and play decent defense. For Charlotte to win any games in Brooklyn, they will need to play aggressive defense, 1 and done possesions, score in the paint and hit some FT's, the latter they are lacking in. They have won 2 in a row, but not the toughest opponents. They are about .500 on the road, which is not bad, but many of those wins were earlier in the season. Some new faces as well, but this just does not look like a team that is poised for a run. They are stuck with STL even if they win who beat them up pretty bad...Richmond should do the same
Dayton: 5 +2000 Dayton is tricky. They are very Jekyll and Hyde at times. This team has a fair share of talent, and a good PG. They have won 3 of their last 4 coming in after falling in a heartbreaking OT loss to GW at the buzzer. Their offense is very reliable but will struggle to score against very good defensive teams at times. Is Dillard ready to step up?? Oliver has established himself as a player this year and transfer Vee Sanford is a great 2 option. They will go 8 deep and frustrate teams with their energy. Their draw didn't help as Butler is arguably a "Bye caliber team" but if they could advance, La Salle is a winnable game. This team has a shot at a run
George Washington: 3.5 +2500 Not a team I would back right now to win it all, but Ive seen worse odds. Lost 4 in a row before an OT win vs. Dayton, but they really have struggled against the higher quality opponents in conference play. They are 0-6 vs. the Top 5 seeds and 1-4-1 ATS in those games. They did however defeat Umass on the road getting 6.5. 6-9 away from home isnt horrible I guess but isn't something to write home about either. They are a good defensive team, but do not have the offense to stay with the higher skilled teams. Armwood is their best player and is a force inside. He will need to get actively involved as usual and hopefully Kromah can somehow rekindle his freshman flame he once had. Garino can make things happen on the defensive end. GW is going to need to keep the game slower paced against Mass, and force turnovers to win. I would be extremely surprised if they tried to play at a high 70's pace again. A game in the 60's and they probably win... La Salle: 6.5+800 Befuddled by STL the other day, La Salle comes in needing a win most likely to dance this year. Their offense is extremely efficient, and can hit from inside or out. They aren't exactly physical inside, so teams that are tough and pounding can give them fits, and do not rebound all that well (ie: Charlotte loss although even on boards). They do have a top 3 backcourt in the conference, which as we all know bodes well for NCAA tourney time. This team will have the engines revved. They play the Butler/Dayton winner. Either way I would expect them to try and play a smart yet quicker game, especially vs. Butler. They did beat both Butler, Dayton, and VCU, which is enticing, but I would not want to be playing Butler or Dayton in the 2nd rd compared to a Richmond/Mass/GW/Charlotte. So that kinda sucks for them, otherwise Id put them higher..STL awaits them if they advance, which kept me from going higher.
Massachusetts: 5 +1000
Chaz is dynamic. If you have not seen him play, do so. This team is helter skelter sp? They can score, but not as well on the half court set. They want to run, for turnovers and score in transition. Lalanne is the man inside who needs to get going on both sides of the ball. Don't be fooled by their ppg against, as they are pretty decent defensivelyThey have a bracket that isn't murderers row, and they can hang with Temple. They also have had some success away from home as well. This is a team with a slight chance, but at 10/1, I do not think it is all that juicy. Id need 15/1
Richmond: 4 +1300 I firmly admit that I've seen this team play the least. A very good backcourt in Lindsay and Anthony. Both are explosive and can handle the rock well. Four players who average over 11 ppg is exciting and they are very good from deep. Unfortunately they do not hit the glass well (haven't in years from that Princetonish offense) hurts them. Many 1 and done's. Playing Charlotte is a solid 1st round draw, but STL is right after. They are just outmatched when it comes to better teams. Also 1-5 vs. Top 5 seeds. They did beat VCU once, because they can handle the ball. Dont see them beating STL. Gave them a 4, just because they are better than GW... St. Joseph's:5.5 +1500 So disappointing this year. I was sure this team was dancing, and contending for the league title. Jones, Galloway and Co. have been disappointing. What exactly has happened in Philly, I really do not know. With all that said, could they turn the light on? Doubtful, but the switch is there. Their offense is predicated on guard play, surprise surprise, and when they are hitting their 3's they can win. Offensively they can be challenged, but their pace is often slow, so don't just assume they cannot score. Aiken will alter shots, and needs to get going inside on the offensive end. They defend the 3 very well, so expect their games to play low scoring. Losers of 5 in a row on the road isnt exactly something Id want to think about if I played for Martelli, but it is nice to know they did beat Xavier by 10 back in late January. They played right into OT with VCU (their next opponent if they make it), so you have to at least give them a "shot"... St. Louis: 10 +175 They hit you with it all. So seasoned, and pretty much owned the conference. Most wins were by DD's. Mitchell, Jett, Ellis, blah blah blah, the list goes on. They are scary and have Elite 8 potential if they get the right draw. They can play the snail pace and grind it down or they can speed it up and score unlike most previous Billiken teams. Their defense is relentless and does not take a possession off. They will face guard you, they will get on you 25 feet away, they will make you earn your buckets. Their one weakness might be inside, as although Evans and Remekun are solid, the team does lack big bodies inside as a whole, and may get beat on the boards by a really athletic team, which would be their downfall.
Temple 8.5 +350 Great comeback win against VCU the other day. Wyatt is a monster and guys like him can nearly single handedly win big games. They are hot and peaking like Temple does winners of their last 7. Not exactly an overly deep team, but they have leadership and seniors to help in Wyatt, DiLeo, Randall etc. If Obrien can be forgotten, he could be a silent assassin from deep. Pretty good defense, and very good offense, if you had to sum it up. They wouldn't have to play STL til the finals, so not a bad draw. Mass would be an interesting matchup if they did play in Rd 2. 1 win from Temple and they are easily in the dance. A loss, and it should still be enough IMO.
Xavier: 6.5 +1000 They have made some strides late in the season. Super Frosh Christon has taken the team on his shoulders and finally realizes they need him too. They shoot pretty well, and can get points in the paint, however they can step back and hit the 3. They need to find a way to run double and even triple screens to get sharp shooter Redford open. Deadly if he can get a look, but doesn't do anything past that. They will need to win off their defense and ability to crash the boards. St. Joes, then VCU if they make it. They had VCU for the taking, but blew a huge lead...which has to at least make them believe they can handle their own. Their depth inside with Philmore, Taylor, Robinson and even Stenger getting a few minutes lets me give them a shot. Christon has to do it ultimately at the end, and he is that type of player. VCU: 8.5 +185
This team is pressure pressure pressure. Most of you have seem them play so you know what they are about. When they are hitting their shots they are virtually impossible to beat. Teams that do not have great ball handlers fall victim to the pressure and turn the ball over. Teams if able to beat the press, can score on them, you just have to know how (give up 44.5% fg). Smart has these guys playing strong ball right now and really no one wants to face that pressure. No need to talk more as most of you know these guys. They have Xavier again if X wins, which might be interesting, but ultimately you have to like their chances. I do not like their odds however. STL is a BAD BAD matchup for them...and Temple has Wyatt who can handle the ball, and being they just played them, advantage Temple at the moment. Still an 8.5 though...
To me, Dayton and Xavier are decent odds at 20/1 and 10/1. dayton could make a run, but are stuck with Butler in rd 1. X would be nicer at 12-13/1 but still not bad. Any team below 5 I wouldn't bet on, and Id lay off VCU as well with their odds. Teams with decent odds IMO: Dayton Xavier Temple La Salle Mass STL
Good stuff CC. I dont see any real value in the futures as most of the top teams should advance and from the semifinals on its any bodies to win. Temple at +350 would be my only play if I had to make one. I think taking SLU or VCU on the ML and rolling it over 3 times would get you close to +200 as neither will be that big a fav in the semis or finals
Train, don;t make that mistake of taking the ML's because if they lose in either game 1 or 2, you will be losing more than just the even money...Id imagine STL laying around 9 or so on a neutral court to UR/Charlotte and a minimum 3-4 in the next round maybe 6 or 7. I guess winning rd 1 and you won't lose too much, but too risky that way. But I wouldn't play STL at 2/1 either...2.5...yes I would.
QUOTE Originally Posted by CrusCrnshw: Train, don;t make that mistake of taking the ML's because if they lose in either game 1 or 2, you will be losing more than just the even money...Id imagine STL laying around 9 or so on a neutral court to UR/Charlotte and a minimum 3-4 in the next round maybe 6 or 7. I guess winning rd 1 and you won't lose too much, but too risky that way. But I wouldn't play STL at 2/1 either...2.5...yes I would.
I would lay the same amount on the 1st ML as I would the future and just roll it over. Say -600 for the opener, -250 in semis and -140 finals would net you about the same Or better imo) results as the future bet.
But if you lose in first game you are out -600...and that is much steeper than +175...either that or whatever you will win wokt be much as you are laying heavy challk. I'd have to sit and do the math but you may be right. Dayton at least I can hedge later but aggain if I took them ml the whole way I mifgt do
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