Denver/Washington

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Total is 205. Line is -3.

Not only does Denver have a moderate "revenge" angle, but they are clearly the better overall team getting a short line tonight, even if Lawson cannot go. 

The Wizards have been making a living on the defensive end and are 8-2 SU their last ten at home. Impressive. They are 22-4 under this total in all home games. However, I do think there is some element of deception to some of their home wins as most teams come in with little respect for the Wiz and do not bring their "A" game. OKC and Miami are prime examples. Denver will not have that problem after losing to them a month ago and in hot contention for a home playoff spot. This is a game they will compete and take seriously.

The Wizards offense is dead last in ppg, TS% and offensive efficiency. They are also bottom 10 in eFG%, 3 pt.%, 3 pointers made, FT's made and FT's attempted. 
Losing Crawford doesn't help against a deep Nuggets squad. Though he had been relegated to the doghouse by Wittman, his absence will be felt. The Wizards need all the scoring they can get and Grunfeld/Wittman are apparently content relying on their solid defense to maintain the momentum. Not a good strategy, imo. The Wizards bench is not threatening whatsoever and really have no scoring punch without Crawford. It's hard to know what offense Booker, Ariza and Seraphin will bring. Inconsistency at its finest.

For the Nuggets, if Lawson can't go(or is limited), they still have wily Miller running the show and their frontcourt play has been impressive. Koufos, McGee, Gallinari and Faried have all been playing great ball the last month. Igoudala had one point last game and should bounce back with a "normal" game. Chandler and Brewer are good bench threats.

I like the interior defense and rebounding/shot blocking(Denver especially) for both to keep this game lower scoring. Neither team shoots the 3 ball well, which helps the cause.
I also like the Nuggets to take control in the 2nd half and win this game.

I am taking Denver ML, -3 and the under 205. Good luck with your plays.

 
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Also wanted to express my sincere thanks for all the support from the covers forum. Duly noted and appreciated to all who have commented.




 
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I like this play as well m_w, good luck today
 
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I'm saying wizards, wiz all over chicken nuggets. Just a against the public play
 
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gl mellow
 
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very tough game, while I have also read a lot of good things from the Nuggets that they'd be up for this game I also know that John Wall was very dissapointed after a poor performance off the All-Star break, the Wizards are a confident group going against a poor Nuggets team, but it's easy to make a case for either side

BOL
 
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should say poor road team
 
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good luck m_w.
 
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Great write up as usual MW...Den U is always going to be a contrarian play...course that is mostly where the money is
 
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mellow_wolf.... simply one of the best


Good luck buddy
 
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ill take a motivated Nuggets team over a motivated John Wall. He is an easily frustrated kid, as displayed in that Raptors game.

Nuggets roll. BOL Mellow and great write up/stats.
 
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Den TT ov 103 1/2 looks good too.
 
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I'm gonna add this play too. The stats are spot on, and favor Denver. Now that the all-star break is over and reality has set in I dont see the Wizards getting up for much.

Denver is a playoff Contender and they know they're gonna have to gain some ground. The Wiz did wonders for me when they were flying under the radar, great when they beat the spread when they got some recognition...but now I think they're gonna fade away. They're all young kids that get frustrated, i.e that Toronto game.

Nice write up man!
 
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Mellow_wolf i'm with you on this. Just placed $105 to win $100 on DEN -3.5, thought about it all fay can't see this being a bad play. So many factors in their favor. They are a deep team, fast-paced team, revenge-seeking tonight, and wizards aren't a particularly united unit. Also don't see Wizards frontcourt handling Denver's.
 
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Expect a solid effort from Javale coming back to Washington first time.
 
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also do you have any leans for the nightcap, im having a tough time with some of those games
 
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mellow, how do you get that austintx guy to shut the f*ck up?
 
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Hell of a way to tie it!
 
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Alright Denver, back in this. Take it home second half.

FG -3 Nuggets. 
 
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Nuggets look ok to me and will cover if they play like this....No way wizards shoot near 55-60% from field and beyond the arc in the 2H
 
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Playing Nuggets -2.5 and under 101.5 for 2nd half. Wiz shot lights out. Unexpected production from Price. Good luck.
 
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Very nice pics!

fu.kking dumbass
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