Not only does Denver have a moderate "revenge" angle, but they are clearly the better overall team getting a short line tonight, even if Lawson cannot go.
The Wizards have been making a living on the defensive end and are 8-2 SU their last ten at home. Impressive. They are 22-4 under this total in all home games. However, I do think there is some element of deception to some of their home wins as most teams come in with little respect for the Wiz and do not bring their "A" game. OKC and Miami are prime examples. Denver will not have that problem after losing to them a month ago and in hot contention for a home playoff spot. This is a game they will compete and take seriously.
The Wizards offense is dead last in ppg, TS% and offensive efficiency. They are also bottom 10 in eFG%, 3 pt.%, 3 pointers made, FT's made and FT's attempted.
Losing Crawford doesn't help against a deep Nuggets squad. Though he had been relegated to the doghouse by Wittman, his absence will be felt. The Wizards need all the scoring they can get and Grunfeld/Wittman are apparently content relying on their solid defense to maintain the momentum. Not a good strategy, imo. The Wizards bench is not threatening whatsoever and really have no scoring punch without Crawford. It's hard to know what offense Booker, Ariza and Seraphin will bring. Inconsistency at its finest.
For the Nuggets, if Lawson can't go(or is limited), they still have wily Miller running the show and their frontcourt play has been impressive. Koufos, McGee, Gallinari and Faried have all been playing great ball the last month. Igoudala had one point last game and should bounce back with a "normal" game. Chandler and Brewer are good bench threats.
I like the interior defense and rebounding/shot blocking(Denver especially) for both to keep this game lower scoring. Neither team shoots the 3 ball well, which helps the cause.
I also like the Nuggets to take control in the 2nd half and win this game.
I am taking Denver ML, -3 and the under 205. Good luck with your plays.