Bengals / Browns Over 43.5
Lions / Eagles Over 47.5
Giants / Niners Under 45.5AMD
Jets -3 -120
Browns +3 -125
Green Bay +3.5
I feel this is a situation where you can buy the Packers on the down low. You have to go back 2 full seasons until you would find the Packers as a dog this big with Rodgers starting. In fact only twice since the end of 2008 have the Packers been a dog this big with Rodgers at the helm. The 2-3 record, no run game, injuries, all that crap has clearly be incorporated into this line.
As far as the game goes what we have here is a veteran team on the road with their backs against the wall. This is where we find out what teams are made of. I trust the Packers in this spot. To me it is worth a bet to find out whether or not they really are crap. Veteran, experienced teams rise to the occasion in spots like this and relish the spotlight. And with Benson gone maybe the Packers will stop wasting 15 plays a game on a player who does not have NFL talent. I like this Alex Green kid at RB. If Green Bay had played Houston's cupcake schedule they would be at least 4-1. I'm not really playing against the Texans here although they are now probably a little overvalued. This bet is mostly a play ON the Packers.
A good rule of thumb is to rarely if ever lay points with a bad team. I don't care how good Arizona's defense is, their offense is the worst in the league and they shouldn't be favored over anyone. They have no offensive line, no run game, and Kevin Kolb. It can't get much worse than that. This is just what the doctor ordered for the Bills' much maligned defense.
I like the fact the Bills spent the week on the road. It gives them time to come together as a group to try to right the ship and also gives them time away from what would have been a toxic environment at home this week. Yeah they got pasted by SF and NE but those are two Super Bowl caliber teams. The Cardinals on the other hand most certainly are not.
ATLANTA FALCONS -9.5
DALLAS COWBOYS +3.5
BUFFALO BILLS +4
MINNESOTA VIKINGS - PK
NY FOOTBALL GIANTS +6.5
added this wager its too easy
FALCONS -1 RAMS +15 JETS + 6 1/2
yeah sure da raiders MIGHT knock off Atlanta at home and John Goodman MIGHT win a triathalon but if the Fins can take jeff fisher's team to the woodshed today the end is truley near......
PHIL -3 (bought half pt)
Clev-Cinn OVER 42
Tenn +6 & U42.5
Dont agree with this analysis
Dallas Cowboys @ Baltimore Ravens
If anyone has been following, I am 3-0 fading the Ravens the past three weeks and 1-0 fading the cowboys in the same timespan so it's safe to say I know these two teams pretty well. Not only are the Cowboys off a blowout loss, but they are coming out of a bye week as well so they have had plenty of time to gameplan for the Ravens. The Cowboys have been historically bad as a favorite the past few years (4-17 ATS) as you can tell with how they played against the Bears last but they play exceptionally well as an underdog. When the Oline for the Cowboys is doing their job and preventing Romo from throwing INT's and costly turnovers, they are one of the best teams in the NFL, hands down. This game means so much more to the cowboys who are only 2-2 and a game back in their division. Ravens are #1 in their division, off three straight wins, and won't care as much to face a non-conference opponent. Especially since they have the undefeated Texans next week. Everyone knows how I feel about the Ravens defense and lack of pass rush this year with T. Suggs being out. This is the cowboys statement game. When's the last time someone went into Baltimore and came out with a win? Cowboys will show everyone they are legit contenders after this sunday.
Ravens sacked Brandon Weeden 1 time in 53 pass attempts 2 weeks ago.
Ravens sacked Cassell/Quinn 0 times in 18 pass attempts last week.
Joe Flacco has been sacked 4 times by the Browns two weeks ago.
Joe Flacco has been sacked 4 times by the Chiefs last week.
I've always said line movement or late line movement is pointless to watch as it could go either way and doesn't indicate anything. But the one thing that does matter and that I do pay attention to is early line movement. And by early, I mean within hours of the line being posted. Immediately after this line opened at -4/-4.5, it was bet down to -3.5 despite 83% of bets being on the Ravens up to today. Early line movement like this indicates some high rollers who were waiting for this line to come out and pounced on it immediately.
The Cowboys are 16-7 SU and 16-7 ATS off their bye week. The Cowboys are 10-4 ATS on the road, following their bye week including 1-0 ATS last year.
The Ravens longest active streak in the NFL of 13 consecutive wins at home comes to an end this Sunday.
I'm all over the Cowboys this week. Bring it home Romo!
||10/14/12 1:00pm NFL Football 217 Dallas Cowboys +4 -117* vs Baltimore Ravens |
||10/14/12 1:00pm NFL Football 218 Baltimore Ravens Under 24 -110* vs Dallas Cowboys |