Baseball Totals Formula

Views: 3632
Posts: 8
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 823
#1 Report User
Posted:

I haven't backtested this whatsoever as it would be very difficult to do so. I had this idea this morning and thought I would track the plays on here. It's a two step process:

First you add the Starting Pitchers WHIPs together.
Then you divide that sum by the total on the game.

If your final quotient is greater than .40 play the OVER.
If your final quotient is less than .25 lay the UNDER

The thought here is this:
The higher a pitcher's WHIP is the better chance more runs will be scored (groundbreaking I know). Here's an exmple:

Pitcher A: WHIP = 1.21
Pitcher B: WHIP = 1.45
Betting Total = 8.5
Sum = 2.66
Quotient = .312

There would be no play there.

Pitcher A: WHIP = 1.15
Pitcher B: WHIP = 1.12
Betting Total = 9.5
Sum = 2.27
Quotient = .234

In this game we have a play on the UNDER.

It's a fairly simple concept and it shouldn't produce a ton of plays as the season goes on, but I think it would be interesting to track. I AM NOT SUGGESTING THAT YOU PLAY THESE PICKS. Just to be clear. Because it's early in the season and WHIPs are nowhere near where they're going to finish, we might get some wacky plays early on.

Today there are 4 games:

White Sox / Athletics U 6.5 (.249)
Yankees / Rangers U 9.5 (.235)
Blue Jays / Royals U 8 (.242)
Braves / Dodgers O 7.5 (.475)

Maybe we have something here, probably we don't, but let's just see what happens. GL
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2004
Posts: 646
#2 Report User
Posted:

how is going so far with the system?
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 823
#3 Report User
Posted:

I have no idea. Like I said I have done no backtesting. This thread is basically the backtesting. 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 823
#4 Report User
Posted:

White Sox / Athletics U 6.5 (.249) (W)
Yankees / Rangers U 9.5 (.235) (L)
Blue Jays / Royals U 8 (.242) (W)
Braves / Dodgers O 7.5 (.475) (W)

Not too bad.

4/24
Indians / Royals O 8.5 (.426)
Mets / Marlins O 6.5 (.545)

That's all for today
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2008
Posts: 100
#5 Report User
Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by BCap888:

White Sox / Athletics U 6.5 (.249) (W)
Yankees / Rangers U 9.5 (.235) (L)
Blue Jays / Royals U 8 (.242) (W)
Braves / Dodgers O 7.5 (.475) (W)

Not too bad.

4/24
Indians / Royals O 8.5 (.426)
Mets / Marlins O 6.5 (.545)

That's all for today

So what does the .40 and .25 mean? i mean what made you decide on those numbers? i like the system just want to understand.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2007
Posts: 1059
#6 Report User
Posted:

What ever happened with this?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 286
#7 Report User
Posted:

He went 0-2 on his second day, and probably said screw it. 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2012
Posts: 823
#8 Report User
Posted:

That's exactly what happened.
Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View