***KENTUCKY DERBY THOUGHTS & PLAYS***

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We have some nice running horses this year...........thanks to Bodemeister, made it twice as hard to cap the derby. Baffert probably knew before the AD that his best shot at winning the KD was to have Bode there.

Baffert is looking to put in 4 horses this year, Liaison, Drill, Secret Circle & probably the favorite Bodemeister (if he gets a good post).

Pletcher has the only undefeated colt in the race with Gemologist........Pletcher is going for his 2nd derby win. Any other year, this undefeated colt would be the favorite at 2-1, especially trained by Pletcher, but with all the talented horses in this years derby, he gets pushed to the side & will be going into the race under rated...........(I like this horse a lot, especially after seeing him fight back when Alpha challenged him neck for neck down the stretch)

Hero of Order is likely to not run in the derby which would push Went the Day Well (Graham Motion) back into the derby........he had last years KD winner in Animal Kingdom.

Top trainer Steve Asmussen has been alluded by the derby trophy & is looking to cross the finish line with a winner. He has 2 horses going in the derby this year with Daddy Knows Best & Sabercat..........DKB has won his past 2 races by running down his opponents Manarchos style.............if there is a deep closer in the derby that can win it, its him.

There are several California trainers in the derby..........Baffert, Harrington, O'Neill.........will the trophy come back to Cali? These 3 trainers have great horses & imo, one of their horses will win the KD.

Harringtons Creative Cause has been right there in every single race & I believe he is coming into his own & is ready for the breakout race of his life..........as of now, this horse is my Kentucky Derby pick! You will receive great odds on this horse on derby day...........im thinking 8 or 9-1, could be as low as 6-1 but I doubt it...........




 
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Havent forgotten about the other 2 horses that will challenge for the roses on May 5th...........Hansen & Union Rags.


Matz is looking to win his 2nd KD with Union Rags......this horse has closing speed but was in trouble last race & couldnt get up in time. If he had trouble with a few horses in the Florida Derby, he will be in deep sh*t come derby day........I blame his jockey for the bad performance anyway..............dont think the jock can win the big race anyway.

Depending on what post Hansen draws, is how he will start the race. If he gets a decent post, the jockey may try to rate the horse but knowing the other speed in the race, he will be right up there battling away.............me personally, I dont like Hansen at all in the derby & if Hansen tries to go neck for neck with Bodemeister, he will get destroyed.

Alpha isnt a bad horse but when I look at the racing form & see 11th by 19 length loss in the BC Juvenile, that takes me off a horse very fast.......I do believe in throwing out a bad race but not with an effort like that..............imo, Alpha will get pushed around in the pack. Alpha was beaten by Union Rags twice, by 5 lengths & 19 lengths, throw Alpha out...........
 
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  You are exactly right about the post position draw, it's ultra important.  I will stick to my pick Union Rags.  It was not the jockeys fault in the last race, it was only a matter of a very slow pace.  It's hard to run down front runners in stakes competition when they crawl on the front end.  And you know there will be a blistering pace in the big race.  You can't knock Bodemeister at all, he is awesome.  If they both draw well I will hammer UR and bet big exactas.  I personally love Union Rags and his jockey is pretty damn good too. 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by diabolical:

  You are exactly right about the post position draw, it's ultra important.  I will stick to my pick Union Rags.  It was not the jockeys fault in the last race, it was only a matter of a very slow pace.  It's hard to run down front runners in stakes competition when they crawl on the front end.  And you know there will be a blistering pace in the big race.  You can't knock Bodemeister at all, he is awesome.  If they both draw well I will hammer UR and bet big exactas.  I personally love Union Rags and his jockey is pretty damn good too. 


Good luck with UR...........its gonna be one heck of a derby!
 
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you know alpha broke into the gate in the juvenile right?? thats a bit of an excuse. that being said he is not my derby horse. hes a hell of a horse but he loses dominguez for the derby and had every oppurtunity to blow right by gemologist in the wood but couldnt. i like to see the explosive turn for home when i pick my derby horses. smarty jones, barbaro, animal kingdom. 

my top 5 as of right now in no order yet

ill have another
gemologist
creative cause
union rags
bodemeister
 
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The 1 thru 3 finishers in the Juvenile: Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause, all have a legit chance at it. These three are really nice horses. I believe this is the highest quality derby field I have seen in a long time, maybe ever. Horse for horse, there are so many quality 3yo's. I have handicapped all the eligible 3yo's, and had planned on betting one of the Juvenile horses I mentioned, but the horse I can not get over is Bodemeister. Secret Circle is a superior runner, Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint winner, I love this horse. Bodemeister made Secret Circle look like a farm animal on Saturday. There is no guarantee that he fires, but if Bodemeister runs in the Kentucky Derby like he did in the Arkansas Derby, none of the horses we are discussing will catch him.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by angrybarber:

you know alpha broke into the gate in the juvenile right?? thats a bit of an excuse. that being said he is not my derby horse. hes a hell of a horse but he loses dominguez for the derby and had every oppurtunity to blow right by gemologist in the wood but couldnt. i like to see the explosive turn for home when i pick my derby horses. smarty jones, barbaro, animal kingdom. 

my top 5 as of right now in no order yet

ill have another
gemologist
creative cause
union rags
bodemeister


Yes, I read about him breaking into the gate.........I agree with your list, one of those will be the winner.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by OmahaStylee:

The 1 thru 3 finishers in the Juvenile: Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause, all have a legit chance at it. These three are really nice horses. I believe this is the highest quality derby field I have seen in a long time, maybe ever. Horse for horse, there are so many quality 3yo's. I have handicapped all the eligible 3yo's, and had planned on betting one of the Juvenile horses I mentioned, but the horse I can not get over is Bodemeister. Secret Circle is a superior runner, Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint winner, I love this horse. Bodemeister made Secret Circle look like a farm animal on Saturday. There is no guarantee that he fires, but if Bodemeister runs in the Kentucky Derby like he did in the Arkansas Derby, none of the horses we are discussing will catch him.


Thing is, every year for the past several years, there has been a trend broken that has withstood the test of time.........now we have the longest trend of all, a horse that hasnt raced at the age of 2, hasnt won the derby since Apollo in 1882 (correct me if im wrong).........will Bodemeister win it for one of the best trainers of all time?

It remains to be seen..............Creative Cause beat Bode in a 1 1/6 race back on March 10th in the San Felipe & it was Bode's 3rd race of his career, so Bode will try to turn the tables on CC in the derby..........

Cant wait to see the past performances for the derby but I pretty much know what I like.........
 
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hey prime time how about that horse that won the bluegrass the other day...he had a good late kick there ...i think he was like 10th at the top of the lane ....and i think that rider  knows a little about winning a few derbys and almost having a triple crown with real quiet and big brown...............
 
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Quote Originally Posted by UL-LAFAYETTEKID:

hey prime time how about that horse that won the bluegrass the other day...he had a good late kick there ...i think he was like 10th at the top of the lane ....and i think that rider  knows a little about winning a few derbys and almost having a triple crown with real quiet and big brown...............


You mean "the Kid", the guy in your avatar.........yes sir, he is a damn fine jockey. Won me some nice money on Real Quiet & should have won the Triple Crown. He has 3 KD trophys & hes a great jockey but I dont see a deep closer winning this derby & Dullahan is just that, a deep closer.

Dale Romans was quoted as saying, "Dullahan is a top horse & should be right up there as a favorite come derby day" umm.....I think hes smoking some wacky weed because there is no way Dullahan is as good as Bode, UR, Creative Cause & a few more im forgetting.........then again, thats why they run the race.
 
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Gonna be an interesting 3 weeks coming up to the KD.........I keep looking at Gemologist, Bodemeister & Creative Cause...........I think its between these 3 horses.

Of course we have workouts abound & defectors just waiting to happen............lets see who can stay healthy until May 5th........
 
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Great thread PTB  After watching many of the preps on video, I have to agree CC can close on these frontrunners considering it should be a blistering pace (ie Hansen, Take charge Indy, and probably some other early burners) which should greatly compromise them getting 1 1/4 I think Hansen will be a great miler but he was fading there at the end as was Indy AND Secret Circle.

Like ALPHA over Gemoligist straight up but I think this race favors the faster CA shippers.  Besides BODE and your CC, watch out for Union Rags. He was by far the most impressive closer in all the video I watched, Jockeys that can navigate  all the traffic can rundown BODE if he goes too fast with Hansen.... Just my 2 cents.....


 
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Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:

Great thread PTB  After watching many of the preps on video, I have to agree CC can close on these frontrunners considering it should be a blistering pace (ie Hansen, Take charge Indy, and probably some other early burners) which should greatly compromise them getting 1 1/4 I think Hansen will be a great miler but he was fading there at the end as was Indy AND Secret Circle.

Like ALPHA over Gemoligist straight up but I think this race favors the faster CA shippers.  Besides BODE and your CC, watch out for Union Rags. He was by far the most impressive closer in all the video I watched, Jockeys that can navigate  all the traffic can rundown BODE if he goes too fast with Hansen.... Just my 2 cents.....




Hey Crusher, ready for the NFL? LoL, I am! I look forward to the Kentucky Derby every year after football season...........

Bode could end up being as good as Point Given but im betting against him showing up to win on derby day just like Point Given lacked that kick, then again, the 1st half mile was the fastest in derby history when Monarchos passed PG & went on to win the derby. PG went on to win the Preakness & Belmont & Monarchos never won another race in his life time.........just goes to show you that the derby is all about the right place at the right time with what the jockey does on the horse.............
 
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Here is a trend that has won past 5 years in the KD.........the past 5 winners of the KD has only raced 2 times since Jan 1st of the new year...........only 2 races under their belts before entering the derby...........this years horses in this spot are:


Daddy Knows Best

Dullahan

Gemologist

I'll Have Another

Sabercat

Take Charge Indy

Union Rags


So if the trend continues for the 6th straight year, one of the horses abive should win the KD................if thats the case, I like Gemologist!

Will the trend continue? Will will know come May 5th................
 
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Horses going into the derby with a 100 or higher beyer figure:


Bodemeister: 101, 101, 108

Creative Cause: 102

El Padrino: 100

Secret Circle: 102


Bode is in form with those numbers but he makes this derby so difficult to cap.......I am not scared one bit by Union Rags..........only Gemologist & Bode scare me, I for one like Creative Cause as of now, with post position needing to be drawn.............
 
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PTB,

I know you didn't necessarily say Bode was as good as Point Given, but he has light years to go before he is even in the same stratosphere.

Check out PG before he stepped in the gate at Churchill.

http://www.brisnet.com/samples/Pedigree/5044.html

HB

 
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Quote Originally Posted by HolyBull:

PTB,

I know you didn't necessarily say Bode was as good as Point Given, but he has light years to go before he is even in the same stratosphere.

Check out PG before he stepped in the gate at Churchill.

http://www.brisnet.com/samples/Pedigree/5044.html

HB



I hope I never said that, if I did, I was inhaling glue........seriously, he is no where near PG, at least for now. I was stating PG was a really good horse going into the derby but couldnt win the KD & destroyed the Preakness & Belmont. Only conclusion I can come up with for horses that should win the KD but dont is there are too many horses on the field which may be a distraction in more than one way.


 
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I was looking at Big Browns races which he only raced 3 times before the KD & his beyer figures were, 91, 102, 110...........but that isnt what was impressive, what was impressive was by how many lengths he was winning those races.......by 11 1/4, 12 3/4 & 5 lengths. 

Im sure he only won by 5 lengths in his only graded stakes race in the Florida Derby because he wanted to leave something in the tank for the KD.........he went from a maiden race, to an allowance race to a GR1 race & then the KD, thats very impressive.

Bodemeister has two wins & two 2nds & the two wins were both won by 9 lengths..........Bode has raw talent & imo, will be a very good horse but dont know if he has the professionalism as of right now to win the derby like Big Brown did...........Big Brown was all business, I just dont see this from Bode yet.

Only reason I am comparing these two is because BB had only 3 lifetime starts & Bode has 4, Bode is also trying to beat the trend going back to 1882........Baffert has his plate full going into the KD.
 
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Ok PTB, some late night info digestation. I agree with you about Bode, it will be tough to crack that non 2yo racing trend, he had to win AD to qualify for KD, and thus, his value will go down sharply after that last GREAT performance.Plus, he will only have a 3 week layoff He could still win but............UR reminds me of POINT GIVEN in stature and with that closing style, I really feel he will be the one to beat, at pretty good odds at that(5-1) and he qualifies with only 2 races under his belt so far this year..Plus, his trainer has been preparing him for this precise RACE Says he's eating well, still growing, and training very well Physically, he towers over this field


     I don't know didddly about GEM b ut I know I like ALPHA more..
Besides obviously, CC, the other horse who may well come back and get us... fricken white boy, HANSEN. Something sneaky makes me feeel he will be a major player in the KD. Of course, he will be better at the Preakness distance but he did win Juve at Churchill

Finally. the DRAW will mean everything and will be worth recording to see how each trainer picks their PP so we can figure their thoughts about how this race will go down. We will all know alot more after that.  
 
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crusher trainers no longer pick their horses post its luck of the draw. hansen has some history working against him too, since 1984 when the breeders cup juve was first run only 2 horses have won the juve and a triple crown race.... street sense won the 2007 derby...... timber county won the 1995 preakness.
 
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Baffert decides to pass on the derby with Secret Circle..............

Link:  http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2012-secret-circle-will-pass 




 
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One thing ive noticed past several years is the horse that wins the derby didnt even hit a 100 or higher beyer figure like last years Animal Kingdom...........AK was getting better beyer figures in every race going forward tho...........

I will say this, Bode looks impressive & if there is one trainer that can break trends & defy odds, it is Baffert...........
 
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This derby is difficult to figure out & I know every year usually is but there have been easy years........I thought Silver Charm, Real Queit, Monarchos & Funny Cide were easy to pick the winner but this year is like the Giacomo year, but its does seem the past several years, the winner has gotten bet down big time, so maybe I will have to wait until the day of the derby to figure who I like 100%, right now its still CC & looking at Bode as well...........

Super Saver got bet down from 15-1 to 8-1, last year, AK was 30-1 in the ML & got bet down to 20-1.............work outs help but I dont rely on them to pick my horse...........

Let me remind you guys, although Giacomo & Mine That Bird were 50-1 in the ML, they closed at 50-1 meaning there was money coming in on them by people that knew they had a good chance of winning or their odds would have closed at higher odds than the ML.........
 
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13 days until...........
 
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Going to be a great race with some fun discussion.  Ten horses or more could possibly be between 10/30-1, with huge shots of winning.

HB

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