Preseason SABRmetrics Discussion

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'10-11 NBA:  90-67  (57.3%)  +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P:  30-16  (65.2%)  +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB:  8-1  (88.9%)  +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P:  11-4  (73.3%)  +7.00u
'11-12 NCAAF:  16-21  (43.2%)  -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P:  9-6  (60.0%)  +1.65u
'11-12 NFL:  42-35-1  (54.5%)  +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P:  5-5  (50.0%)  -0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB:  7-2  (77.8%)  +4.80u
'11-12 NBA:  49-44-1 (52.8%)  +2.48u

'10-11 MLB:  97-66  (59.8%)  +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P:  9-3  (75.0%)  +9.22u


Post your thoughts, comments, crazy ideas and anything else that comes to mind about advanced baseball statistics.  I'll be in and out of this thread until opening day.  Always interested to expand my horizons and get feedback from other baseball stats junkies like myself.  One can never know enough about baseball!
 
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I'll get things started by posting the generic spreadsheet format that I'm using this season for advanced pitching stats.



PITCHER NAME (L/R):  0.00 tERA, 0.00 SIERA, 0.00 GB/FB, 00.0% GB%, 0.00 K/9, 0.00 K/BB

     (L) Splits:  .000 BA, .000 BABIP, 0.00 FIP, 0.00 xFIP
     (R) Splits:  .000 BA, .000 BABIP, 0.00 FIP, 0.00 xFIP
 
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Anything else you think I should add to this format?  What else do you all look at when handicapping a pitcher?  Let's get this party started!
 
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I always look at the ERA and W/L for public perception only, LOB% as another luck predictor.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by guil0000:

I always look at the ERA and W/L for public perception only, LOB% as another luck predictor.

LOB% is a good one to look at for sure.  In a broad sense it can tell you which pitchers are good at baring down when runners get on base.  Doc comes to mind here.
 
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love the thread, here's a few thoughts.  

ERA-FIP (or xFIP/SiERA/whatever) can be a good measure of a pitcher's value compared to public perception. 

K% is a better number to look at than K/9, because K/9 depends on outs and is thus fielding dependent.  K%, strikeouts/batters faced, is fielding independent.  Same goes for BB/9 and BB%.  K%-BB% can be a good predictor of ERA  
 
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I've reading about sabremetrics on the net lately and still don't quite get it yet,, but I do like to compare starters whip and so/bb ratios. 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Dgretzky69:

love the thread, here's a few thoughts.  

ERA-FIP (or xFIP/SiERA/whatever) can be a good measure of a pitcher's value compared to public perception. 

K% is a better number to look at than K/9, because K/9 depends on outs and is thus fielding dependent.  K%, strikeouts/batters faced, is fielding independent.  Same goes for BB/9 and BB%.  K%-BB% can be a good predictor of ERA  
 
Whats the real difference between xFIP, SIERA, and tERA. Not sure if I should include all or only some in my analysis...
 
I think K% is great just because those pitchers tend to have the ability to get out of trouble and is feilding independant. I like to play those for 5 innings a lot especially with weak pens...
 
But Basbeall is great, no emotion or effort or BS there. Just #'s that play out over the course of time...
 
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Whats the real difference between xFIP, SIERA, and tERA. Not sure if I should include all or only some in my analysis...
 
I think K% is great just because those pitchers tend to have the ability to get out of trouble and is feilding independant. I like to play those for 5 innings a lot especially with weak pens...
 
But Basbeall is great, no emotion or effort or BS there. Just #'s that play out over the course of time...
 
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can we see your gambling account records?


then you can state your cases!

 
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silly i know one thing im gonna have to spend more time on these games now this year since bodio is gone.... he helped every one out with his stats and all that crazy shit he wrote... but then again my friend you helped me out alot aswell...if we work together i think we will b ok... i may wait a little while before i start wagering just to see how shit plays out...
 
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Silly, I have a question for you. Why do you keep FIP and xFIP? Is it to give you an approximation of how much homeruns affected the pitcher's xFIP against lefties and righties? I'm deducting it can be used in hitter friendly ballpark against a majority of righty batters or vice versa?
 
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Quote Originally Posted by guil0000:

Silly, I have a question for you. Why do you keep FIP and xFIP? Is it to give you an approximation of how much homeruns affected the pitcher's xFIP against lefties and righties? I'm deducting it can be used in hitter friendly ballpark against a majority of righty batters or vice versa?

You've pretty much got it.  I know you already understand, but for those that don't:  the only difference between FIP and xFIP is xFIP replaces the home run rate that is specific to the individual pitcher you're studying with a normalized value that is the same for all pitchers.  Since there is nowhere else in my pitching breakdown sheet that references home run rate, it sort of addresses that statistic in a backward way.  Since home run rate does tend to normalize over time, it's useful to see in the same basic metric which direction a pitcher is trending (if FIP is less than xFIP you can expect him to get worse and vice-versa).  To address the second point of why it's included in my lefty/righty splits you're spot on.  I use it when looking at a line-up to see what side of the plate the power hitters swing from and how good that pitcher is at limiting their respected production.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by RUSSINGER:

silly i know one thing im gonna have to spend more time on these games now this year since bodio is gone.... he helped every one out with his stats and all that crazy shit he wrote... but then again my friend you helped me out alot aswell...if we work together i think we will b ok... i may wait a little while before i start wagering just to see how shit plays out...

In baseball it's definitely better to start slow and work your way into the season as the data builds.  And don't worry about Bodio, his data was useful definitely, but it's nothing that you can't dig up on your own in a matter of a few minutes of web searching.  I'm hoping to get my models to a format that is easy to copy and paste right into these write-ups.  Look forward to another profitable baseball season with you Russinger!
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Monk2334:

Whats the real difference between xFIP, SIERA, and tERA. Not sure if I should include all or only some in my analysis...
 
I think K% is great just because those pitchers tend to have the ability to get out of trouble and is feilding independant. I like to play those for 5 innings a lot especially with weak pens...
 
But Basbeall is great, no emotion or effort or BS there. Just #'s that play out over the course of time...

SIERA and tERA are a little too complicated to explain in a brief forum reply.  PM me and I'll send you some web links that I've collected over the years that best describe these advanced metrics.


To give you an idea of just how complicated they are.. here is the formula for computing SIERA:

SIERA = 6.145 – 16.986*(SO/PA) + 11.434*(BB/PA) – 1.858*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) + 7.653*((SO/PA)^2) +/– 6.664*(((GB-FB-PU)/PA)^2) + 10.130*(SO/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) – 5.195*(BB/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA)
 
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Not ready to contribute yet, but I do want to thank you for the correct posting of SABRmetrics. Sometimes I think I am the only one on this site doing that. Most guys seem to think it has something to do with a military weapon. (sabre or saber....metrics)


 
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Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Not ready to contribute yet, but I do want to thank you for the correct posting of SABRmetrics. Sometimes I think I am the only one on this site doing that. Most guys seem to think it has something to do with a military weapon. (sabre or saber....metrics)




I've been a member of the Society for American Baseball Research since before the internet.  There were only a couple thousand of us.  We used to mail each other hand-written stat sheets upon request.  Of course that was before advanced baseball statistics really took off.  Nowadays people don't realize that SABR is an acronym.  It's etymology is a lot like RADAR (Radio Detection and Ranging).  Even the Wikipedia article is listed under SABERMETRICS.
 
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silly,

Do you know any sites that post/update SABRmetric stats on a daily basis? Also, are there any that post projected wins or run totals for the whole upcoming season? 

I just started reading "The Book" by Tango, Palmer,....and I forgot the other guys name. Really interesting stuff and I'm hoping to apply it to wagering this season. I had a lot of success following Bodio last season and really enjoyed how he explained his plays and gave all the stats for pitchers that day. 

Hopefully we can all contribute to something similar to that this season. 

I'm heading to Vegas next month for March Madness and I'm hoping to put in a couple of Baseball future's wagers. Looking for some ideas on who to put action on though. It can be either season win totals or division, league, W.S. future's. Just looking for some good wagers with quality odds. 

Any suggestions? 

Nice thread.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


I've been a member of the Society for American Baseball Research since before the internet.  There were only a couple thousand of us.  We used to mail each other hand-written stat sheets upon request.  Of course that was before advanced baseball statistics really took off.  Nowadays people don't realize that SABR is an acronym.  It's etymology is a lot like RADAR (Radio Detection and Ranging).  Even the Wikipedia article is listed under SABERMETRICS.
Wikipedia can be a useful source but they are the first to warn viewers that everything you see may not be gospel truth. If you are of a mind and can spare the time to get access you may be allowed to edit that very category, or, we can just keep the secret to ourselves. Thanx again.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by Ktrain:

silly,

Do you know any sites that post/update SABRmetric stats on a daily basis? Also, are there any that post projected wins or run totals for the whole upcoming season? 

I just started reading "The Book" by Tango, Palmer,....and I forgot the other guys name. Really interesting stuff and I'm hoping to apply it to wagering this season. I had a lot of success following Bodio last season and really enjoyed how he explained his plays and gave all the stats for pitchers that day. 

Hopefully we can all contribute to something similar to that this season. 

I'm heading to Vegas next month for March Madness and I'm hoping to put in a couple of Baseball future's wagers. Looking for some ideas on who to put action on though. It can be either season win totals or division, league, W.S. future's. Just looking for some good wagers with quality odds. 

Any suggestions? 

Nice thread.


I use fangraphs for 95% of my sabermetric data collection.  As far as futures go, I don't have any specific teams to recommend betting on one way or the other yet, but I do have some advice I can offer you.  A lot of people say that future bets is about finding value and that's just not true.  Without looking at the odds, pick who you think will win the AL, the NL and the World Series.  Then look at what their price is and bet accordingly.  Other than the public teams that Vegas puts a premium on, generally speaking they know more than you do, so the teams without value are the teams they're projecting to do the best.  I'm not a big fan of betting Baseball futures until the playoffs start when there is enough current and relevant data to look at to really have an idea of who will perform best during the post season.  One thing futures can be good at is giving a gambler lots of action during a season by betting a season win total.  You end up with something to root for in 162 games.  That's a lot of action for a little price.  I'll have some thought on season win totals and future bets posted in a few weeks when I'm finished collecting and analyzing this years data.  Good luck and enjoy Vegas!  The first round of March Madness is the second biggest handle for Vegas casinos behind the Superbowl.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


I use fangraphs for 95% of my sabermetric data collection.  As far as futures go, I don't have any specific teams to recommend betting on one way or the other yet, but I do have some advice I can offer you.  A lot of people say that future bets is about finding value and that's just not true.  Without looking at the odds, pick who you think will win the AL, the NL and the World Series.  Then look at what their price is and bet accordingly.  Other than the public teams that Vegas puts a premium on, generally speaking they know more than you do, so the teams without value are the teams they're projecting to do the best.  I'm not a big fan of betting Baseball futures until the playoffs start when there is enough current and relevant data to look at to really have an idea of who will perform best during the post season.  One thing futures can be good at is giving a gambler lots of action during a season by betting a season win total.  You end up with something to root for in 162 games.  That's a lot of action for a little price.  I'll have some thought on season win totals and future bets posted in a few weeks when I'm finished collecting and analyzing this years data.  Good luck and enjoy Vegas!  The first round of March Madness is the second biggest handle for Vegas casinos behind the Superbowl.

This is kind of what I am looking for. I'm a Tigers fan living in California so I don't get a ton of Tigers games out here. I'm thinking of putting a Dodgers futures wager on them to win the division(should be around 6:1) and an over on their season win total. I believe they will be much improved this season. Also it will give me a local team to follow. 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


I use fangraphs for 95% of my sabermetric data collection.  As far as futures go, I don't have any specific teams to recommend betting on one way or the other yet, but I do have some advice I can offer you.  A lot of people say that future bets is about finding value and that's just not true.  Without looking at the odds, pick who you think will win the AL, the NL and the World Series.  Then look at what their price is and bet accordingly.  Other than the public teams that Vegas puts a premium on, generally speaking they know more than you do, so the teams without value are the teams they're projecting to do the best.  I'm not a big fan of betting Baseball futures until the playoffs start when there is enough current and relevant data to look at to really have an idea of who will perform best during the post season.  One thing futures can be good at is giving a gambler lots of action during a season by betting a season win total.  You end up with something to root for in 162 games.  That's a lot of action for a little price.  I'll have some thought on season win totals and future bets posted in a few weeks when I'm finished collecting and analyzing this years data.  Good luck and enjoy Vegas!  The first round of March Madness is the second biggest handle for Vegas casinos behind the Superbowl.

Thank you. I'm very excited for the first two rounds of March Madness. Always a good time. 
 
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i look at B/KK ratio for SP to determine if the pitcher is actually any good.

the LD % rate is important for both HITTER and pitcher. it should never be over 21% for a pitcher. if its over 21% he better have a low BABIP and a good GB/FB ratio. and the bonus for a pitcher is the IFFB. the best pitchers will pop u up. halladay, weaver, haren all pop you up. 

votto of the reds had a LD% that was over 27% joey votto only IFFB once or twice all season and actually didnt IFFB once last year (2010) some guys there first AB of the year they hit a pop up.

but in terms of scouting i look at the pitchers instincts. does he overthrow? i've seen pitchers try to overthrow after giving up a homer and i know its all bad. and boom another HR goes over the fence.


i think i'll fade carpenter and tim lincy for 2012. i'll tell you how it goes. i think lincy is walking too many guys and does overthrow at times. his fastball velo is getting lower and lower as the years go by. and a lot of people lay money on him so the line is in your favor.
 
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I disagree about IFFB.  Popping batters up is not a skill but rather a good result from a bad pitch.  In a broad sense, a pitcher is better if his velocity and movement induce a ball to move down after contact.  If a pitcher gives up an infield fly that means his velocity and movement was such that a hitter could send the ball up in the air.  This is more often than not a bad result.  An IFFB is caused because a hitter got too far underneath a hit-able pitch.  Again, this is not a pitching skill.  This principle is one of the driving fundamentals behind the advanced pitching metric SIERA.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

I disagree about IFFB.  Popping batters up is not a skill but rather a good result from a bad pitch.  In a broad sense, a pitcher is better if his velocity and movement induce a ball to move down after contact.  If a pitcher gives up an infield fly that means his velocity and movement was such that a hitter could send the ball up in the air.  This is more often than not a bad result.  An IFFB is caused because a hitter got too far underneath a hit-able pitch.  Again, this is not a pitching skill.  This principle is one of the driving fundamentals behind the advanced pitching metric SIERA.


I understand what you're saying, but couldn't a harmless infield popup also result from guys that can consistently make it tough for the hitter to properly square up the pitch -- from a guy that throws a rising fastball or very hard or movement such that a hitter consistently gets under it.  I understand it could result from a hitter that just screwed up and the pitcher got lucky, but couldn't there also be an explanation favorable to the pitcher? 
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