View Our New Forum Updates. You can always switch back to what you're used to.
View Our New Forum Updates.
You can always switch back to what you're used to.

Thurs Nt Prime Time : Houston @ Colts

Participants:
< Page of 3 > >>
Views: 7796
Posts: 73
< Page of 3 > >>
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2011
Posts: 625
Posted: #1

I just bet Hou -5.5 for 1 unit now for the Thurs Nt. Prime Time match up.
I'm thinking that once people get over their hang-over with the Pit loss MN or their celebrating the SF win...they are going to figure out the following and bet this line up. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe there will be support for the Colts, but consider the following:

The backdrop for this game:
NE   11-3                      1st seed
Hou  10-4    8-2 conf      2nd seed
Balt  10-4    7-3 conf
Pit    10-4    8-3 conf

Balt is ahead of Pit in their division because of the div record.
However, for the 2nd seed in the AFC playoffs, Hou is ahead of both of them due to the better conf record.
Hou has everything to play for with 2 games left to earn #2 seed!

SF had a let down @ Ari after clinching their division. A real stinker game yet they came back with a vengeance and beat Pit at home.

Hou had a let down vs Car after clinching their division, a real stinker game too - embarrassing really - seemingly blowing their chance to maintain their lead for 2nd seed. Now, thanks to Balt and Pit both losing, they have a reprieve and another chance to take care of business. I expect they are collectively and absolutely thrilled for this opportunity.

Earning a bye in the wild card round and home field advantage for the next round is a HUGE deal. Having to host a wild card game in the first round is not something that will help their chances to go deeper into the playoffs at all.That extra week rest and facing the winner of the wild card round is BIG motivation. The coaches know it, the players know it, they will fight for it. This time of year, winning in the NFL is all about Playoff Motivation scenarios unless there are over-riding considerations. I don't see any here....
I lean to the home team in Prime Time match ups unless I have very good reason not to. This is one of those games....

I expect Hou to atone for their horrible showing last Sun and tromp on the Colts, much like the Niners did to Pit. Colts just got the monkey off their backs and beat Ten. They are no longer the same win-less desperado they were last week. Hou is the much better team than Indy (it's a mismatch) this season and they will want to show the world on Prime Time that they deserve to be where they are and show they are a force to be reckoned with going forward. Also, heading into the playoffs on a winning note is a good thing IMO. They need to show and prove to themselves and everyone else that last week was an aberration. They did pound Indy 34-7 in week one and I think the -5.5 I just got on one of my online books is a cheap price here all considered. My other book is showing -6. Maybe I will find that I jumped the gun and the line comes down, but I'm fine with it as I expect them to win by 7 or more anyway.
You might argue that Ind will want to show something too on Prime Time...  I heard that same argument for TB for their last game hosting Dal and that's not how it turned out. I didn't buy it for that game, I won't buy it here either. I expect a similar result here as what was seen in Dal @ TB.

Hou: PF/PA 24.5/16.9; Indy: 15.1/28.2   
Hou 7-2 (all ATS) vs conf opponents, 3-0 vs division, 6-2 as a fav, 5-2 road, 1-0 road fav 3.5-7pts.
Indy 4-6 conf, 1-3 div, 5-8 dog
winner vs loser
Playoff team vs crap team.


I just hit my 6th straight Prime Time game: NYG @ Dal, SL @ Sea, Jack @ Atl, Dal @ TB, Balt @ SD, Pit @ SF and taking my shot at #7. Maybe here is where I lose one now but I don't think so....
I'll risk 1 unit so it's not the end of the world if I figured this all wrong.

Your comments, opinions and ideas are very welcome here.

BOL everyone!


Quote Post Report User
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2008
Posts: 635
Posted: #2

Colts will lose, they only wanted one win, they need the number one pick,,bc rumor in indy is peyton isnt coming back Houston ml is definitely safe
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7744
Posted: #3

have fun laying road chalk with tj yates

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 13343
Posted: #4

Tom, you're wrong buddy, the Ravens are #2  because the beat the Texans this season............the #2 spot is the Ravens to lose...........
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2011
Posts: 625
Posted: #5

Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Tom, you're wrong buddy, the Ravens are #2  because the beat the Texans this season............the #2 spot is the Ravens to lose...........

OK, that is a fine point I missed and you are correct, heads up takes precedence over Conf Record.
Still, with 2 games to go, Hou will play as though they can win the #2 seed. Had Balt or Pit won either of their games, that would change the picture entirely.
I think too that loss @ home vs Car left a bad taste for them, the only way to erase that bad memory will be to win this next game IMO.
Thanks for correcting me on that!
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 13343
Posted: #6

Quote Originally Posted by TomE:


OK, that is a fine point I missed and you are correct, heads up takes precedence over Conf Record.
Still, with 2 games to go, Hou will play as though they can win the #2 seed. Had Balt or Pit won either of their games, that would change the picture entirely.
I think too that loss @ home vs Car left a bad taste for them, the only way to erase that bad memory will be to win this next game IMO.
Thanks for correcting me on that!


I also agree that the Texans should win & cover........I dont see the Colts playing hard after finally getting that 1st win out of the way, besides, they want Luck............
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7744
Posted: #7

betting against a team because you think they want a draft pick is well.....square....no offense guys.

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2011
Posts: 625
Posted: #8

Quote Originally Posted by smartbets:

have fun laying road chalk with tj yates



The way you say that I guess you must think I hadn't considered that.
It's fine, I'm not offended.
By the way, I hope you enjoy your Atl play @ NO immensely!


I don't think Orlovsky is a big upgrade over Yates. I think Yates has been playing very well and in fact, he impresses me overall.
Did you watch his performance @ Cin? Clutch, and worthy to be leading his offense.

Also, I don't expect Indy to have much success vs Hou's stingy defense. No way can you compare Dan Orlovsky with phenom Cam Newton who has been playing and getting up to NFL speed all year long.

Neither of us will know how much fun I will have laying road chalk with TJ Yates until after the final score Thurs Night, will we....
BOL
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7744
Posted: #9

Quote Originally Posted by TomE:



The way you say that I guess you must think I hadn't considered that.
It's fine, I'm not offended.
By the way, I hope you enjoy your Atl play @ NO immensely!


I don't think Orlovsky is a big upgrade over Yates. I think Yates has been playing very well and in fact, he impresses me overall.
Did you watch his performance @ Cin? Clutch, and worthy to be leading his offense.

Also, I don't expect Indy to have much success vs Hou's stingy defense. No way can you compare Dan Orlovsky with phenom Cam Newton who has been playing and getting up to NFL speed all year long.

Neither of us will know how much fun I will have laying road chalk with TJ Yates until after the final score Thurs Night, will we....
BOL
im just looking everything over, nothing is official yet. And in that cinci game I would call Hochuli's phantom pi call was more clutch that Yates was. Yates threw a simple over the top pass for 7 yards....Hochuli doesnt put em in the red zone, bengals win that game.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2007
Posts: 2360
Posted: #10

Only -5.5? If it looks too easy, it probly is.
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2009
Posts: 12708
Posted: #11

i concurr---- indy will be drunk or witha  hang over after at last winning , orlovsky must be in the 7th cloud ---- Kubiak hates the colts , and will want to secure a 1st rd bye to get the most healthy players he can get, yates is good , wade will be back and will put his deffense back in business---last week tenn made the dumbest mistake when hashitbeck started he was like today rottenburger he fucked his team more than helped it, if locker were the starter tenn should have won EEEZZZZZ that game ---any way , my pt --orlovsky isnt an upgrade over locker or yates,Indy no longer with their dick up thier asses because they wont win shit

This line was 6.5 in my book all the sucker fools, thier person step-sisters and evil step mothers  must beal over Indy now that they proved they can win a  game ----- besides orlovsky its has covered all his games

TEXANS -5.5

GREAT STREAK TOM--KEEP IT UP
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2008
Posts: 3310
Posted: #12

colts got their 'win', all texans have to do is hand the ball to foster, and play defence. what do the colts have to play for? pride. texans or nothin for me.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 237
Posted: #13

Not to mention Orlovsky was Houstons back up QB, and Texans most likey can pick tells that he has, snap count, reading WRs etc...

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2011
Posts: 625
Posted: #14

Quote Originally Posted by SharpCheddar:

Only -5.5? If it looks too easy, it probly is.


Thanks for the heads up.

But, two things:

"ONLY -5.5"?
"TOO EASY"?

Really? You're serious?
I've been betting NFL for some 3 decades now, and there is one thing I know for damn sure. I'll say it a couple of different ways. Like they say "any given Sunday".... IMO there is no such thing as too easy when it comes to wagering NFL.or laying "only" -5.5.  Sure, AFTER the fact, after the game has been played, it's easy to say it was easy or not. Before the game, people who say "easy pick" are self deluded. I could say after the fact that SF was an easy pick but that would be pure BS as I was scared shit-less fading Pit as a dog. Anyway, that's just me and that is the way I approach games. I really do try to look at both sides, and then make my decision.

This game is a divisional rivalry and I'm fading a system here which is not to be taken lightly. Home Dog Divisional Rival (not to mention revenge). That system says take Indy and at home in a Prime Time game, that makes the system pick all the more appealing. Maybe after the game, I'll relearn what a bad idea it is to fade that system......
Let me make myself absolutely clear. I do not believe in any way this is an "easy" game.
That being said, there is no way I can consider taking Indy here. It's lay the big 5.5 or pass. Hou has too much to play for and they are coming off a loss, a dismal and disappointing loss at that. Indy is coming off a win, so they are in feel-good mode. I like that. I'm sure if Indy had lost and Hou had won, the line would be WAY different so I think I'm getting the benefit of the last results for these teams in the line.
For Hou to have lost that game vs Car and still be in a chance to secure a #2 seed has to have them feeling pretty darn good now and I'm sure they will not take the Colts lightly either.
At this time of year, I usually do heat up but right now, I'm on absolute fire. I'm riding my PlayOff Motivation angle until the wheels fall off.
Anyway, that's my pick...I gotta go with it.
Hey, no one wins 'em all. Maybe this is the game I end my Prime Time games streak. It will happen sooner or later, that I'm sure of. If that happens Thurs Nt., so be it...on to the next game! 
 
Also, I'm only going 1 unit a pick (although I have been adding extra teasers here and there. I had SD and SF ATS for 1 unit each and I also had them teased together for another unit. I'm not going crazy on any of my picks and I intend to continue exercising self-discipline and continue betting to the bitter end. Even if I lose Thurs, I am way ahead of the game right now. I'm going to have to go on an unheard of losing streak (for me) to give it all back....or just go plain stupid by betting all the marbles on a single pick.

Anyway, I appreciate your opinion and I wish you
BOL!

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2005
Posts: 61
Posted: #15

Great thoughts Tom. Best of luck to you thursday   !

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2011
Posts: 625
Posted: #16

@ shark_apreza   Thanks and BOL Thurs Nt.  

@ Shady Dude    Good info. That was off my radar. I sure like that angle.    BOL  
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7744
Posted: #17

oakland, balt, nyg, nyj, hou, gb, pitt....all these teams had a lot to play for in week 15....doesn't mean it's gonna happen.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2011
Posts: 2508
Posted: #18

I am with ya Tom 100% and agree with all of your points. I am locked in on the Texans at -5.5 and I expect it to be -6.5 soon.

BOL 

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2011
Posts: 2508
Posted: #19

Hey Tom, any thoughts on the O/U of 40?
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2011
Posts: 625
Posted: #20

@ SandinHand....thank you bud. BOL to U 2!   


Just for the record. I'm hoping to continue my perfect bowl record 4-0 going with FI Int -4 tonight for one unit.  I'm going with the same logic that I used to pick La Laf + points vs SDSt. Sat nt. The idea is to take the "home team"  (Louisiana Laf in a New Orleans Bowl game). I don't just blindly go with that, I do consider the match up and so long as it's not a complete mismatch, I'll take the team playing in their own backyard. The same logic applies tonight with Florida International vs Marshall in St Petersburg, Fla. Nothing and no system or trend or idea is 100%, but I have to go with the motivational incentive of playing in front of the home crowd. I'm sure they will be really fired up to play in this game and Fl Int has some serious talent, especially @ wide receiver (Hilton). Coach Cristobal has really brought his program to respectability and I'm sure he will have his team properly prepared and fired up. There's no way you can look at this match up and say one team is clearly much superior than the other, so knowing for sure I'm not taking the worse team, I'll side with the "home" boys.

So...
Fl Int -4   1 unit

Adding:
Fl Int +2
Hou -.5 (Th Nt.)   6 pt teaser     1 unit 

My bowl picks so far:
Tem -7, Ohio +1.5, ULLaf +4 with over 59.    4-0
Temple was a blow out snoozer, Ohio was an exciting last minute winner, ULLaf was an exciting seesaw game and the over 59 was achieved by a 50 or so yard FG as time expired by the kicker who couldn't be counted on to hit an extra point, let alone a FG to save his life! The Ohio game featured a memorable "I've never seen before" event where Ohio seemed to score the winning TD in which the refs essentially said "TD - OHIO, Then "correction NO TD - 1st and goal", then "we changed our minds - it was a TD!", then "wait a minute, after further review, NO TD - 1st & Goal".  LOL, can't say I've ever seen that before!  Now THAT's entertainment! Ohio went ahead and subsequently scored the winning TD  leaving not enough time on the clock for Utah State to do anything about it. Excitement like that........... priceless.

BOL all!
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 255
Posted: #21

With you on HOU-5.5 

Texans D will bounce back this week. 

Nice streak BTW. Wish I tailed you on a few of those.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2011
Posts: 625
Posted: #22

Quote Originally Posted by Makaveli1:

Hey Tom, any thoughts on the O/U of 40?


Hey, thanks and BOL Thurs Nt.
I'll be completely honest with you and admit I am the shits at picking totals. At least I know my limitations and don't try picking totals much. Once in a while, I get a good vibe and if I like it enough, I'll go with it.
I felt pretty good about the Over in the SL @ Sea game because the total was really low and everyone on covers was saying Under. It DID look on paper like an Under but I capped defensive scoring so I went Over. Sea scored a TD early in the 1stQ on a blocked punt which helped to hit it. On prime time games I like when I'm opposite the public, at least more often than not.
I also liked the Over in the Jack @ Atl and I capped it similarly. Number relatively low and the public all over the Under. Atl almost scored the Over all by themselves in that one. The Over in the SDSt/ULLaf looked really easy on paper, it was anything but - winning as time expired (barely) so that was a huge luck-out. So, I'm 3-0 on my last totals play but I really hardly ever play them. Liked Over (shit pick) in the Pit/SF game but not enough to bet it. BTW CONGRATS to all the Under pickers of last night's game (great pick). I NEVER have the guts to go under on low totals like that. I had a lean for under 47.5 for Dal/TB but passed (was a winner). I thought the number was too high and I didn't see TB scoring much at all. I also thought Dal would have a comfortable lead and go to "kill the clock" mode late in the game. Oh well, missed out and had to suffer watching exactly what I thought was going to happen with no money on it, but I was in 7th heaven winning with Dal and sweeping all my bowl picks. Got to be thankful and grateful for the good and not lament missing out on that Under play.
I have absolutely no idea at all for this Thurs Nt. but if I had to pick I'd go with Over. Not going to play it and my attitude in general is that totals are just too hard (for me) to pick.
I could see Indy who seems to have found some offensive rhythm scoring and Hou scoring, but I could also see an inspired Hou defense shutting Indy down. Can't both be right so I have to pass on that completely.
Good luck!

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2011
Posts: 625
Posted: #23

Quote Originally Posted by PackFan12:

With you on HOU-5.5 

Texans D will bounce back this week. 

Nice streak BTW. Wish I tailed you on a few of those.


Thank you PackFan12. I have my fingers crossed we get a winner.

I always tell people to not tail blindly. I advocate doing your own research and going your own way. You get way more satisfaction winning with your own ideas and picks, and the lessons learned when you lose sink in better. Really, what do you learn if you just tail someone? Nothing! You hope someone's luck continues and truthfully, everyone wins, every loses. Every one has hot streaks, we all go cold at times too. If you do your own thinking, you can go back through your own thoughts and see what went wrong (hopefully).
That being said, money management is the key. Keeping units the same size and starting with a roll where your bets are no more than 10% of your stack will keep you going a long time. I see too many people fall in love and blow everything on one, single pick (yeah, been there, done that!).
I also like Covers the most as a forum to trade ideas and mine for ideas. Nothing wrong with finding info or angles that you didn't know and then make your own decision. Anyway, if I have ideas others find worth in, great. If people come back and point out things I missed or am flat out wrong about, that is all good too. At the very least, it makes me re-examine my thinking and that is not a bad thing.
When I do my reading on other threads, I RUN FOR THE HILLS when people give no reasoning, no insight...just a pick and say with absolute authority "THIS IS A LOCK" "BET THIS AND THANK ME LATER"....LOL, those folks are ASSHOLES!     LOL
Sports Gambling is a constant learning process and unfortunately, it is sometimes an endeavor where we have to learn the same damn things over and over....ARGH!    LOL

BOL again!


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2006
Posts: 217
Posted: #24

Quote Originally Posted by SharpCheddar:

Only -5.5? If it looks too easy, it probly is.

I agree that in some cases this kind of thinking is worthwhile, but not here.  Too easy?  The Colts just won handily.  The Texans just lost to a 4-9 team.  This is not the kind of line that makes you scratch your head.  It seems just right to me.

TomE, I was against you on the Texans last week, but I'll be with you this time.  BOL.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2011
Posts: 625
Posted: #25

Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:



I also agree that the Texans should win & cover........I dont see the Colts playing hard after finally getting that 1st win out of the way, besides, they want Luck............


Thanks PTB      I agree, they should, but therein lies the problem and what makes it all so fun, exciting, and aggravating all at the same time....    LOL

By the way, just want to say (I've said it before) that I DO enjoy reading your threads immensely. I want to thank you personally for your efforts which you certainly don't even need to be doing. You, like anyone, have good ideas and sometimes not so good (I'm no different). But you are awesome in posting trends and stats and my belief is you do it in the spirit of sharing info and with the attitude "take it or leave it". I respect that entirely.
BOL this week and I hope you get your money back with interest from this last week.

 
< Page of 3 > >>
Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View