Kreatture's Playbook 2011

First << 1 of 61 >> Last
Views: 135245
Posts: 1504
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 2312
#1 Report User
Posted:

I've been holding off starting this due to the fact my Blog isn't fully ready to launch yet, and I really want to associate it with this thread. I really enjoy writing and would enjoy this a lot more if I was able to create something more than just a common thread on a web forum (altho I really love Covers and think it's a great site), but the Blog probably won't be ready til the new year. I also didn't believe I was going to allocate the funds for this until the new year, but that changed today. So I've decided to at least open the thread right now.

Now I know a lot of people have been waiting for this, and I appreciate all the kind comments via PM, but I do have this to say..

I know I've been giving a few guys a hard time around here lately, and that probably won't change. It's 100% to do with the way they run things tho, and not really anything to do with their actual picks. No one is learning a damn thing from these guys about how to become better handicappers, or how to better manage their bankroll.
That being said, I am just like any other poster on here - meaning I'll make many losing picks alongside my winners. I am not a Professional at this yet so if you decide to tail my plays, you agree you are doing so at your own risk. I have never run a thread quite like this one. One thing you know you can count on tho with me is a very clear layout and a dedicated professionalism. Anyone who followed me in MLB and remembers my spreadsheets already has an idea of what to expect from me. Those threads are posted on the "My Space" page of my profile for anyone who wants to take a look.. I've also posted an unsuccessful NHL Playoff Thread (thanks to the Montreal Canadians last year), just to let you know I am human. I've been around here for over 2 1/2 years now and have learned a lot about this Business, and I plan on learning a lot more..


The style of this thread will run similarly to that of dj_destroyer's in regards to bankroll management. It's a combination of Unit Betting with the Kelly Criterion. It is also the proper way to run your bankroll. When you wager the same amount on all your plays (known as Flat Betting), you are leaving money on the table and the Books love that. You have to hit a much higher percentage to really make a lot of money. Flat Betting is also recommended for inexperienced bettors who are either just starting out or are not too confident in distinguishing the value of their plays. There will be none of that here.
By setting up the bankroll like this, you can play with any amount of money you desire. Whether you want to start with $500, or $5000, the only difference is going to be the dollar value of the amount you win. The % will still be the same.

Many of you know I respect DJ as much as anyone around here, so this is in no way a "competition" thread to his. We've actually discussed the thoughts of me starting this, and I'm sure he will enjoy this, as I will continue to with his. Who knows, maybe we'll have a "friendly" competition sometime down the road (maybe a March Madness pool or something). I'm sure it would be good for not only our own motivation, but for the excitement of the Forum. For now, we'll both continue our own assault and attempts (if I may borrow from dj here) to Destroy the Books!

There's no set goal for this thread other than to make money. Climb, learn, climb higher. There will be cash-outs (hopefully!) whenever I feel fit to do so, but will never cash-out below the initial amount.

Altho the money management is laid out the same as DJ's, the picks will not. I'll play any event where I see value (dj is good at this, too), as well as the odd teaser or small parley. Limiting yourself to only playing Dogs or low odds is just plain silly. You need to recognize value on Favorites, too, in order to maximize your money.

And I'm not sure how well I'll be able to incorporate Live Wagering into this, due to how fast it operates and how small a window there usually is when making a play, but we'll see how it goes. For nights when I plan on being home and set up to Live Wager an event, I'll give notice. The windows are small tho, but there's always a Game Plan going into the Event, so I'll handle that as it comes up.

There will be one identifiable theme to this thread, and I'm adopting the first part from my favorite NHL team - Los Angeles Kings:

PRIDE = PASSION = POWER
POWER = MONEY


Lastly, don't expect plays every day. Some days the board just simply doesn't offer any real value, and forcing picks just to have "action" is also just plain silly. If there's nothing good to invest in, then take the night off and do something else you enjoy. You'll be amazed at how fresh your mind stays and how less stressed you are on actual game nights.

Now.. just gotta avoid the initial posting curse! Oh, wait.. yeah.. I don't believe in that shit.

Have fun.


Cheers 
Parker   
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 2312
#2 Report User
Posted:

BANKROLL: $10,000
OVERALL RECORD: 0-0    (0%)

INVESTED: $0

RETURNED: $0
PROFIT: +$0
ROI %: +0%

The only games I'll be listing are ones I'll actually be playing myself. Since it's NFL Sunday, I might as well start with them. I've been having a pretty good NFL season and the last couple of weeks I've hit some Teasers, including a big 7-gamer last week. I've gone over the full list and chosen the games I really like this week, and there just happens to be 7 of them again. I like to pick Dogs who I like to win straight up and add points onto them, so even if they can't win outright they will most likely keep it very close. I also like small Favorites who I think can win by double digits, and make them +pts, so even if they don't win big they can at least still win or lose by a FG.
NFL Sundays can produce a lot of plays if I really like the card, and I like this one better than any recent weeks. This will never be the norm for the number of plays in a day.. Here's how I'm breaking things down.

NFL
Teaser #1 (+700)
St.Louis Rams  (+4)
Houston Texans  (+8.5)
Indianapolis Colts  (O42) game total
Arizona Cardinals  (+9.5)
Cleveland Browns  (+8)
Tampa Bay Bucs  (+3)
New Orleans Saints  (+9.5)
0.5%  $50 to win $350

Teaser #2 (+200)
Philadelphia Eagles  (+10)
Tampa Bay Bucs  (+3)
New Orleans Saints  (+9.5)
New York Jets  (+11.5)
1.5%  $150 to win $300

Teaser #3 (-130)
Tampa Bay Bucs  (+3)
New Orleans Saints  (+9.5)
3%  $300 to win $231


I like the Rams, Texans, Browns & Bucs all to cover their respective spreads, but I'm just gonna go with the fun teasers for right now. I'll post other picks if something changes before game time.

Enjoy the games, there's some really great ones on tap. I'll be watching my Colts take back their division crown!

Cheers 

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 818
#3 Report User
Posted:

Good Luck Kreatture,i will be following along...
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2009
Posts: 1245
#4 Report User
Posted:

well, lets see what you got....

 

Falcon

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 1270
#5 Report User
Posted:

Good luck Kreatture.  I like the idea of Kelly criterion as you know because it really teaches good money manangement if you use it correctly.  I know you will do well as long as you stick to your rules.  You seem to be on your way to success!!!!!

Goog luck Mtp104

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2010
Posts: 550
#6 Report User
Posted:

Way to go dude. I like it and will be following closely.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2008
Posts: 2179
#7 Report User
Posted:

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 1294
#8 Report User
Posted:

Great stuff Kreatture, may the profits be all of ours!

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2009
Posts: 1990
#9 Report User
Posted:

I'm surprised teasers are allowed in your repitoire. Some "experts" say they are the biggest sucker bet going. But you did say you were doing them for fun I guess.

What is your view on teasers as a legit form of investing?

GL Kreatture.

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2010
Posts: 924
#10 Report User
Posted:

BOL -

Collectively between yourself, dj and some others - hope to keep learning and growing.  Some good advice in your intial introduction. 

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 1003
#11 Report User
Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by TheThinker:

well, lets see what you got....

 

Falcon




 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 2312
#12 Report User
Posted:

As soon as the wagering opens up, jumping on Jets/Steelers In-Game UNDER
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 2312
#13 Report User
Posted:

NFL Live In-Game

Jets/Steelers  UNDER 40.5  -120
2%


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 2312
#14 Report User
Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

NFL Live In-Game

Jets/Steelers  UNDER 40.5  -120
2%




2% $200 to win $166.70

I don't know if anyone will be able to follow the in-game wagers, cuz like I said, the window is so small to get the wager in. Usually 1 quick commercial break at the longest. I liked the Under in this game originally, so with the Jets early kick-off return the Total was jumped, so we'll jump on an early inflated total.

I'll be sticking around and watching this game and looking for more opportunities. This is also a big game since it's the last win needed (Jets +11.5) to win Teaser #2, so I may look for a middle there if it looks good. We'll feel out this 1st Quarter and go from there.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 2312
#15 Report User
Posted:

That was a hectic 3rd Quarter in Pittsburgh.. was just hoping to get it to the 4th at 17-17 still. The In-Game total is at 44.5 at -140 and I don't see a lot of value in that, altho I'm not in the best situation at 40.5 right now either.. I'm going to let the total ride and the teaser is in better shape now with the Jets +11.5
If it stays tied and gets under 10min to play, I may pop a play in for Next Score - FG around +120. Otherwise, probably leaving the rest of this game alone.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 2312
#16 Report User
Posted:

Well I couldn't pass up this value, altho I'm sure it won't come in..

NFL Live In-Game

Jets/Steelers  No Further Score (+600)  10:07 to play
0.3% $30 to win $180

Live Betting is so much fun, LoL
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 2387
#17 Report User
Posted:

How do your teasers handle ties? W or L? Tampa +3 = push.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 2312
#18 Report User
Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by smitler:

How do your teasers handle ties? W or L? Tampa +3 = push.


1.3.2 Parlay, Teaser and Round Robin Bets:

d) A teaser bet is a combination of two (2) or more single bets on one (1) or more games where you can adjust the point spread in your favour for a greater chance of winning. A teaser bet shall only be paid if all of the games selected in the teaser are correct, meaning that the customer must correctly select all of the games in his/her teaser bet against the spread/points/over-under or whatever the handicapping method for the events/games wagered.
e) If a game in your teaser is postponed, cancelled, ends in a 'push' or is refunded for whatever reason (eg, change of venue),then your teaser will be evaluated on the games left that still have action. For example, a five team teaser will automatically become a four team teaser and so on, and the odds will be reduced accordingly from a five team teaser to a four team teaser and so on. A 2 Team teaser will revert to a 1 Team teaser.
f) A 3-team-10-points-Football-Teaser where a game involves a tie, will be graded as a loss.


It's graded as a win. The payout for 1-game teasers is 1.35 
I'll copy and paste the chart for Teasers.. dunno if it will post right.

Basketball Moving Line 4 Points 4½ Points 5 Points
Football Total Points 5 Points 5½ Points 6 Points
Football Moving Line 6 Points 6½ Points 7 Points
1-Team Teaser 2/5 (1.4) 37/100 (1.37) 7/20 1.35
2-Team Teaser 10/11 (1.91) 5/6 (1.83) 10/13 (1.77)
3-Team Teaser 17/10 (2.7) 3/2 (2.5) 7/5 (2.4)
4-Team Teaser 3/1 (4.00) 5/2 (3.50) 2/1 (3.00)
5-Team Teaser 9/2 (5.5) 4/1 (5.00) 7/2 (4.50)
6-Team Teaser 7/1 (8.00) 6/1 (7.00) 5/1 (6.00)
7-Team Teaser 9/1 (10.0) 8/1 (9.00) 7/1 (8.00)
8-Team Teaser 14/1 (15.00) 12/1 (13.00) 10/1 (11.00)
3-Team 10 Points Football Sweetheart 10/13 (1.77)
2-Team 10 Points Football Sweetheart 1/2 (1.5)
1-Team 10 Points Football Sweetheart 2/9 (1.22)


Damnit Jets.. make the STOP!!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 2312
#19 Report User
Posted:

Teaser #3 was a 1-team teaser winner, and Teaser #2 is a 3-team winner. I'll update the day after this game ends.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 2312
#20 Report User
Posted:

Damnit that chart messed up the posts.. excuse the next few posts as i finish off the page..
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 2312
#21 Report User
Posted:

..
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 2312
#22 Report User
Posted:

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 2312
#23 Report User
Posted:

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 2312
#24 Report User
Posted:

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 2312
#25 Report User
Posted:


First << 1 of 61 >> Last
Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View