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Views: 234444

Posts: 2232

Posted:

Based entirely on system play, these are tonights key release's:

NYM-260

Marlins-125

Rockies-114

Padres-124

A's+120

MLB total's, based on systematic leans:

Cubs vs Cardinals UNDER

Rangers vs Orioles OVER

Tigers vs A's UNDER

Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Based entirely on system play, these are tonights key release's:

NYM-260

Marlins-125

Rockies-114

Padres-124

A's+120

MLB total's, based on systematic leans:

Cubs vs Cardinals UNDER

Rangers vs Orioles OVER

Tigers vs A's UNDER

I guess I could rag you a little like you do to everyone else, but it's nice to see you step up and post plays. So with that said, good luck to you, I hope you do well! Just remember the Bookie's the enemy, not you or I.

Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by Tomspeople:

What's the system?

What's the system?

The system would be described as taking a sabermetric stats approach.. Most noted by the research done by TomTango, who's credentials include working for MLB's Seattle Mariners as a projection consultant/analysis. His work, and research can be located at .. tangotiger.com ; for more depth, and explanation..

please take note of understanding, I am not posting picks, this thread is a documentation of "added" variables where the leans become stronger, and turn into high % plays as the thread goes forward. This is the conception of a created MLB formula, incorperating the sabermetrician stats, with situational handicapping, strictly for MLB ... the ultimate goal is to bring "value" plays to the forefront, and a 70% winning edge achieved. The wins speak for theirselfs, the losses need to be re-capped, and this is where the addition of variables is added on the way, reaching your final goal of success ratio.. i will continue to document the leans that are derived from the formula in effect, on a daily basis, as the experiment continues, and becomes accepted or rejected, as accurate/reliable.

Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

The system would be described as taking a sabermetric stats approach.. Most noted by the research done by TomTango, who's credentials include working for MLB's Seattle Mariners as a projection consultant/analysis. His work, and research can be located at .. tangotiger.com ; for more depth, and explanation..

please take note of understanding, I am not posting picks, this thread is a documentation of "added" variables where the leans become stronger, and turn into high % plays as the thread goes forward. This is the conception of a created MLB formula, incorperating the sabermetrician stats, with situational handicapping, strictly for MLB ... the ultimate goal is to bring "value" plays to the forefront, and a 70% winning edge achieved. The wins speak for theirselfs, the losses need to be re-capped, and this is where the addition of variables is added on the way, reaching your final goal of success ratio.. i will continue to document the leans that are derived from the formula in effect, on a daily basis, as the experiment continues, and becomes accepted or rejected, as accurate/reliable.

Interesting!

I'd like to ask you a question: How do you use sabermetrics to project the game total?

From what I know a team's winning percentage is better projected by James's formula than by it's actula winning percentage but I don't know how to use the formula in relation with the games totals.

Posted:

calinreddog, You are on the correct track by understanding Jame's formula, which is described as "RunsCreated" invented by David Smyth, to answer your question on MLB total play, you would revert to the "Base Runs" formula/system..Complete details on how to use, and understand can be found:

htt://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_Runs

this should assist you in you research of "total" play. take note

you are strictly dealing with MLB totals, and stats...I have read in detail your past publishings, and find them impressive, with a high % rate of success, Base Runs formula will bring an advantage to your baseball cappin' total play. ...best regards

Posted:

GetMeResults, I would say using the term rag is out of text, debate/assessment/insight/analysis, would be an appropiate description of what I do. I am sure you have read my commentary above to Tomspeople, I make it very clear, I am not posting plays/picks..These are MLB games, and totals that fall into the criteria of researching losses, to add variables, and take the wins as % of success ratio..the picks will come when this is ironed out, and fine tuned.. thx for the words of encouragement, they are well received, and appreciated, After all, I am here to GetYouResults...

Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

calinreddog, You are on the correct track by understanding Jame's formula, which is described as "RunsCreated" invented by David Smyth, to answer your question on MLB total play, you would revert to the "Base Runs" formula/system..Complete details on how to use, and understand can be found:

htt://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_Runs

this should assist you in you research of "total" play. take note

you are strictly dealing with MLB totals, and stats...I have read in detail your past publishings, and find them impressive, with a high % rate of success, Base Runs formula will bring an advantage to your baseball cappin' total play. ...best regards

Thank you, I love the sabermetrics and I've always been looking to find a way to use stats (and by that I mean numbers and objective data not affected by biases in our judgement) to predict results at a decent rate.

I'll be checking the site above and get to work.

Good luck in your work!

Posted:

assessment, 4-4/50% .......no advantage tilt at this time..

value win, extracted through system play, Padres-124...

Tigers/Royals Cubs/Cardinals valued UNDER wins...

the losses will be torn apart, and re-capped to evaluate the addition of variables in creating a success ratio, formula/system

Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by calinreddog:

Thank you, I love the sabermetrics and I've always been looking to find a way to use stats (and by that I mean numbers and objective data not affected by biases in our judgement) to predict results at a decent rate.

I'll be checking the site above and get to work.

Good luck in your work!

Did you know that are actually making a movie based on Moneyball.

Posted:

MLB formulated system plays 04/25/09 phase II

Marlins-135

Pirates+120

A's +109

WhiteSox-155

Braves vs Reds UNDER 9.5

Giants vs Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5

Twins vs Indians OVER 10

Rangers vs Orioles OVER 11.5

LAA vs Mariners OVER 9.5

Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

GetMeResults, I would say using the term rag is out of text, debate/assessment/insight/analysis, would be an appropiate description of what I do. I am sure you have read my commentary above to Tomspeople, I make it very clear, I am not posting plays/picks..These are MLB games, and totals that fall into the criteria of researching losses, to add variables, and take the wins as % of success ratio..the picks will come when this is ironed out, and fine tuned.. thx for the words of encouragement, they are well received, and appreciated, After all, I am here to GetYouResults...

Fair enough! Go GetThoseResults! BOL

Posted:

MLB formulated system plays 04/26/09 phase III

Nationals+155

Cubs-117

Indians-136

LAA-143

Braves vs Reds UNDER 9.5

Tigers vs Royals UNDER 9.5

Posted:

Your system is doing well :) Curiously, how long do you intend to "trial" this system and continue posting picks?

Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by NewZealandPride:

Your system is doing well :) Curiously, how long do you intend to "trial" this system and continue posting picks?

Until a consistent goal of 70% success ratio is accepted. roughly, around 100 more instances should give an accurate description. your tracking is welcomed, and could become advantagious in your behalf. I strongly suggest to anyone with an interest, to read the thread from it's conception before getting involved with concept best regards......

Posted:

sports_Network, I looked at the Base Runs formula on Wikipedia and it seems interesting. In terms of how you apply the stats to the formula, do you use average per game of each stat? i.e. team A averages x.x home runs per game? and where can you get those stats?

Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by manifesto:

sports_Network, I looked at the Base Runs formula on Wikipedia and it seems interesting. In terms of how you apply the stats to the formula, do you use average per game of each stat? i.e. team A averages x.x home runs per game? and where can you get those stats?

the formula of Base_Runs consist on what the batters have done lifetime against the starter, middle relief, and closer of the two teams playing, with home runs being a key factor, if the starter is a rookie, or has never faced anyone on the opposing team, then you simply by-pass this particular game. In essence, you recreate the entire game inning by inning, based on a sabermetrician stats approach..In princapal; if four members of the opposing team has hit 8 HR against the starter, they will continue to hit HR's..it's really a team by team matchup, with absolutely no chasing involved. A very good example to this would be yesterdays Nationals+155 win, which was the formula's strongest play/lean....

All stats must be obtained by personal research, as their is no stats attached to the formula...i use, EliasSportsBureau.com baseball1.com vegasinsider.com CBSsportsline.com, and Covers.com.. my main source of information comes from entering the MLB data base of the two teams playing, from the 'local' newspaper's sports section. they have it all...Then situational play is applied, to bring the strongest picks forward, and eliminate the weak...This is only the basic outline, but enough to give understanding..I havnt even begun, Unit Management yet; I hope this has been of some help to your research. by the way, each game takes about 40 minutes to handicap correctly..best regards

Posted:

MLB formulated system plays 04/27/09 phase IIII

DevilRays+105

WhiteSox-200

Yankee's-119

Reds-108

RedSox vs Indians UNDER 9.5

Cubs vs Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5

Posted:

I note some days you post more picks or less. Does the formula tell you to, or it just happen so that on those days (perhaps there are more games) and therefore giving a wider choice of % plays to pick from.

Posted:

Quote Originally Posted by NewZealandPride:

I note some days you post more picks or less. Does the formula tell you to, or it just happen so that on those days (perhaps there are more games) and therefore giving a wider choice of % plays to pick from.

I incorperate situatational play to make a "cut" eliminating the weaker plays; some days, the system offers more plays than other days; depending on the strength of the leans...and the equational "gap" on over & unders..