Basketball over / under system

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Posted: #276

Quote Originally Posted by calinreddog:

One variation I still recall and I continue to use on soccer as well is:

Compute offensive avg = pf avg road team + pf avg home team

Compute defensive avg = pa avg road team + pa avg home team

Compare the offensive avg and the defensive avg with the total set by the bookie and take the biggest distance or difference if the odds are in your favour.

Example:

dal - den

Offensive avg = 97.4 + 109.4 = 206.8

Defensive avg = 99.7 + 99.8 = 199.5

Total set by the bookie = 206.5

Distance for offensive avg = 0.3

Distance for defensive avg = -7.0

We should pick the under.

I picked the good example this time...

 
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Posted: #277

calinred thanks

 

good for you, congratulations.....

 
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Posted: #278

Same principle, for today:
 
orl - bos over 188.5
hou - lal over 193.5
 
(both avg's, offense and defense are a few points over the total set by the bookie)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #279

nice system...dont know if you mentioned this but do you take the season averages or see better value looking at the last 5 games averages?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #280

Carlinreddog

 

Gello

 

Apologies but could you explain more briefly from where do you her these data points for and against ?

 

Thank you for reply

 
Prospect
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Posted: #281

Quote Originally Posted by calinreddog:

Quote Originally Posted by PatrickBateman:

calinreddog,Any chance you could explain in more detail how you pick the o/u plays?
Yes Patrick, I'll use an example from today's games: lal at nyk (total listed at 225) First, we'll write the points for and against for both teams when plyaing away (for the Lakers) and when playing at home (for the Knicks):           points for             points against lal         107.5                      100.0 nyk       107.5                      106.7 Then we'll the points for and the points against to get an idea about the pace of the game. Total points for = 107.5 + 107.5 = 215 Total points against = 100.0 + 106.7 = 206.7 Third, to see if the game is going to be much or less offensive we divide the total offensive (total points for) by the total defensive (total points against) and that is: off/def = 215 / 206.7 = 1.04 If this number (pace) it's higher than 1.00 the game is going to be rather offensive than defensive and that means that both teams are focused on scoring. If we have that situation we will use only the offensive numbers to estimate the total. But if the number is below 1.00 the game will not be so offensive so we will use only the defensive numbers to estimate the total. In this case (offensive game) we'll multiply the total offensive (total points for) by the off / def fraction and that means: 215 * 1.04 = 223.6 Compared to the 225 total line there is a small difference of -1.4 points, but that too little. So, in this case the total line set by the bookie is very sharp and I wouldn't take a play based on a difference of only 1.4 points. The total will be around 215-220 but is too hard to say it will go over or under 225, so there's no play for this game.

 

 

Hello from where these numbers points for & against ?

 
Prospect
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Posted: #282

On the ESPN app

 
Prospect
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Posted: #283

New to this thread and was wondering if anyone has back-checked this system?   Sounds interesting.  I am getting some data ready from the past few years and will try it.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #284

Was able to set up the data for this year (2018-2019) for the NBA.  Seems to work in reverse.  Adding the PF/PA pairs and dividing by 2 and when greater than the line+8 for the TOTAL, picked the UNDER 57%.  Still work to be done and can't forget to figure in thing like injuries, etc.  Anyone will to work with me, send PM.  I do have the data for the last few years for the NBA and doing calculations to see how a formula works for a whole year takes only a few minutes.  Anyone interested?

 
Prospect
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Posted: #285

No system is ever gonna be perfect. I’ve been using it for a few days and I’m winning 62% so far.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #286

I’m hesitant to take the under unless it’s more than 10

 
Prospect
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Posted: #287

Counting OT game (in other words 4Q+OT), there are only 11 more OVERs than Unders.  341-330 Using mostly odds from Covers.com.  But I hear ya, I take more OVERs than UNDERs.  Not too many teams play defense like they did just 5 or 6 years ago.  Everything's offense now.  Guess it's more entertaining for the fans.

 
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Posted: #288

hey dog, you still visible?

 
Captain
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Posted: #289

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

last post 10 years ago 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #290

You asking me?  Been watching this forum for a long time, new to posting.  Am here.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #291

Ive been following this post and its quite interesting. Very cool that it was picked back up, as it was originally active in 08/09 with the inspiration from REDDOG who abruptly stopped posting. I would love to see more discussion about red's original ideas and formulas and about whether or not it is possible to consistently beat the O/U by averaging metrics of both teams.

Quote Originally Posted by NavyDog:

Was able to set up the data for this year (2018-2019) for the NBA.  Seems to work in reverse.  Adding the PF/PA pairs and dividing by 2 and when greater than the line+8 for the TOTAL, picked the UNDER 57%.  Still work to be done and can't forget to figure in thing like injuries, etc.  Anyone will to work with me, send PM.  I do have the data for the last few years for the NBA and doing calculations to see how a formula works for a whole year takes only a few minutes.  Anyone interested?

 

I would love to talk stats and work around this topic!

 
Prospect
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Posted: #292

Wouldn't mind further discussing the issue, send a message.  Was disappointed too when the topic was dropped.

 
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Posted: #293

Discuss it here, maybe more people will get involved and chime in.  Isn't that what forums are for?

 
Prospect
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Posted: #294

Sounds like a winner.  Any ideas to try?

 
Prospect
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Posted: #295

Hello I’m so confused by this is there a simple way to do it thanks?

 
Prospect
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Posted: #296

Does anyone have any ideas to share?

 
Prospect
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Posted: #297

Just follow the system, it works. Been working for me..never fell below 50% end of 2018 until now. Ive been using the system to also give me an idea of how the game should play out and playing games out of this system,.which sometimes works. Which is why it’s called gambling. 

 
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Posted: #298

Hey , msg me and maybe we could work together.  Been working on a total system for a while now.  Depending on the criteria used, found some cases hitting a bit better than 55%.  Would like to fine tune that to see if we could do better.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #299

I have the combined data from 1995 up to date.

Calculated the margins of total with Averages of Off and Def for both teams involved.

Fading the system since 2015 got a net profit of 360 Units.

If anyone is interested in the RAW data, feel free to message me.

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