Basketball over / under system

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Posted: #1

I have been using since yesterday a method to pick totals for basketball games based only on 4 numbers and that are the points for and against for both teams. I don't look at the teams names and I don't know much about basketball, I just noticed that a very important factor for the total is the pace of the game. So I started searching for a method to estimate the pace of scoring based on the offensive and defensive averages.
The results for the first 2 days are:
Friday night NBA 5-1 NCAAB 3-0
Saturday night NBA 3-2 NCAAB 18-9
So, overall: NBA 8-3 (72.7%) and NCAAB 21-9 (70%).
I will continue to work with this system and post the picks everyday for NBA and NCAAB.
Picks for today are:
 

NCAAB

 

PENNST-MCHST OVER 140

STJOE-DAYT OVER 125

CAN-RIDER UNDER 140

IOWA-ILL OVER 114

VIRG-DUKE OVER 145.5

SOFLA-STJ OVER 128

 

NBA

 

CLE-DET OVER 180

OKC-SAC UNDER 215.5

 

Good luck!

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Posted: #2

I've got an over and under system in NCAA that I'm currently tracking but I can't find where to look at previous scores on the games I will need it to have the line and the end score. Covers and wagertracker both are good but when I go back further than a couple weeks it starts missing info and the scores aren't there. I tracked this system back since Jan 17th and it's 51-17 so far but I will need to do more back tracking like from the beginning of the season or even last years totals. Let me know if you want to help me back track this new system I'm working on.
 
 
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Posted: #3

my 5year @57% o/u system in nba calls for a small play on the toronto raptor under 201'. very limited sch.today so hard to crunch the #s .
 
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Posted: #4

[link from unapproved source],

Any chance you could explain in more detail how you pick the o/u plays?
 
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Posted: #5

[link from unapproved source] my bb system is picking almost the same games as yours. I noticed especially in nba it almost always takes high totals und & vice versa. Let's see how it goes
 
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Posted: #6

NCAAB

 

PENNST-MCHST OVER 140 PUSH

STJOE-DAYT OVER 125

CAN-RIDER UNDER 140

IOWA-ILL OVER 114

VIRG-DUKE OVER 145.5

SOFLA-STJ OVER 128

 

NBA

 

CLE-DET OVER 180

OKC-SAC UNDER 215.5

 

ncaab 3-2-1 nba 0-2

overall: ncaab 24-11  nba 8-5.

 
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Posted: #7

I'VE BEEN WATCHING YOU!
HANG IN THERE!
YOU WILL HAVE A GOOD DAY TOMMORROW!
GOOD LUCK!
LOOK FOWARD TO YOUR FUTURE PICKS!!!
 
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Posted: #8

Quote Originally Posted by DiverRon:

I'VE BEEN WATCHING YOU!
HANG IN THERE!
YOU WILL HAVE A GOOD DAY TOMMORROW!
GOOD LUCK!
LOOK FOWARD TO YOUR FUTURE PICKS!!!

Thanks Diverdon, .

 
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Posted: #9

Quote Originally Posted by PatrickBateman:

calinreddog,

Any chance you could explain in more detail how you pick the o/u plays?

Yes Patrick, I'll use an example from today's games:

lal at nyk (total listed at 225)

First, we'll write the points for and against for both teams when plyaing away (for the Lakers) and when playing at home (for the Knicks):

          points for             points against

lal         107.5                      100.0

nyk       107.5                      106.7

Then we'll the points for and the points against to get an idea about the pace of the game.

Total points for = 107.5 + 107.5 = 215

Total points against = 100.0 + 106.7 = 206.7

Third, to see if the game is going to be much or less offensive we divide the total offensive (total points for) by the total defensive (total points against) and that is:

off/def = 215 / 206.7 = 1.04

If this number (pace) it's higher than 1.00 the game is going to be rather offensive than defensive and that means that both teams are focused on scoring. If we have that situation we will use only the offensive numbers to estimate the total. But if the number is below 1.00 the game will not be so offensive so we will use only the defensive numbers to estimate the total.

In this case (offensive game) we'll multiply the total offensive (total points for) by the off / def fraction and that means:

215 * 1.04 = 223.6

Compared to the 225 total line there is a small difference of -1.4 points, but that too little.

So, in this case the total line set by the bookie is very sharp and I wouldn't take a play based on a difference of only 1.4 points. The total will be around 215-220 but is too hard to say it will go over or under 225, so there's no play for this game.

 
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Posted: #10

Let's take another example (por at no)
 
                 points for             points against
por               95.8                        96.6
nor               96.6                        90.0
 
totals          192.4                      186.6
 
off / def = 192.4 / 186.8 = 1.031
 
The game will be rather offensive so we will use to estimate the total only the offensive numbers (total offensive):
 
total projected = 192.4 * 1.031 = 198.36
 
The total set by the bookie is 187 and we estimated a total of 198.36 points. That means we estimated a total with 11.36 points over the total line so we have a good play for the over.
I'll take over 187.
 
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Posted: #11

Interesting numbers, how big of a difference do you need to see in order to have a good play? If 11.36 is good,and 1.4 too small, where is the cutoff?
 
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Posted: #12

Quote Originally Posted by jhudd70:

Interesting numbers, how big of a difference do you need to see in order to have a good play? If 11.36 is good,and 1.4 too small, where is the cutoff?

I am thinking at 6-7 points at least. That's up to you. How fast can 2 basketball teams score 6 points? I am more comfortable if I find differences higher tha 10 points...

 
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Posted: #13

And I'll use an example where I should use only the defensive numbers (mem at was):
 
                   points for                 points against
mem                92.4                          103.0
was                 95.7                           99.6
totals              188.1                          202.6
 
off / def = 188.1 / 202.6 = 0.928, so we'll use the defensive number (202.6)
 
total projected = 202.6 * 0.928 = 188.01
 
The total line set by the bookie is 192.5 so we have a difference of -4.5 points, but from my point of view that's not enough for a good play ( think how manny seconds need 2 basketball teams to score 5 points...).
So the total would be around 188 but it's hard to say it won't go over 192.5 so there's no play for me.
As a general fact, I think in NBA total lines are much sharper than in NCAAB and that's the reason we can find more good plays in NCAAB games rather than in NBA games.
 
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Posted: #14

Hi Calinreddog,
 
Thank You for providing the math of your approach!!!
Very helpfull, and logical!!!!!
 
 
 
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Posted: #15

calinreddog, just run the numbers for some ncaab games tonight and unless i'm working it out wrong all the games i looked at will all be overs and by a huge margin!!!!!, basically nba numbers!!
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #16

Quote Originally Posted by edmondsj:

calinreddog, just run the numbers for some ncaab games tonight and unless i'm working it out wrong all the games i looked at will all be overs and by a huge margin!!!!!, basically nba numbers!!
 
 
 

You are aproximately right. By now I only found one good under play and 5 good over plays. But I'll be posting later the projected total (according to my formula) on every NCAAB game that has listed the total line.

 
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Posted: #17

I found a way to compute the hypothetical spread a favourite should cover, based on the four basic numbers (points for and against).
So, as a test I will post the projected spread (according to my math) that favourites should cover in NBA games tonight.
Below the projected spread I'll post the projected total for every game and 'till tomorrow to compare them with the actual totals and spreads.
 

Projected spread for the favourite

 

ORLANDO -9.75

WASHINGTON -6.71

MIAMI -9.74

LA LAKERS -7.15

NEW ORLEANS -6.96

PHOENIX -12.84

UTAH -15.59

GOLDEN STATE -1.58 (exactly, gs should be the favourite here)

 

Projected total

 

DAL-ORL 210.3

MEM-WAS 188.4

LAC-MIA 190.8

LAL-NY 223.6

POR-NO 198.2

SAC-PHO 202.3

CHA-UTA 200.1

SA-GS 211.7

 

So, the best NBA plays tonight should be:

 

orlando -6.5

new orleans -3.5

utah -8.5

golden state +4.5

por-no over 184

sac-pho under 224

 

Good luck!

 
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Posted: #18

And the projected totals for NCAAB tonight would be:
 

man-maris 139.1

uconn-louvi 185.1

wcar-dav 169.2

siena-stpet 140.9

nia-iona 141.1

appst-gasou 142.8

but-wigb 167.9

kan-bay 174.9

wky-arkst 138.7

 

The best plays would be:

 

uconn-louvi over 137

wcar-dav over 150

siena-stpet over 131.5

appst-gasou under 156

but-wigb over 128

kan-bay over 153

 

Good luck!

 
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Posted: #19

[link from unapproved source] how did you calculate the nba spreads?
 
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Posted: #20

And projected spread for the NCAAB favourites (according to my system):
 

louvi -10.6

dav -29.5

siena -3.5

gasou -10.5

wigb -3

bay -16.9

arkst -12.9

 

So best ATS for NCAAB tonight would be:

 

louvi -2.5

dav -19.5

stpet +11.5

gasou -3.5

bay -1.5

arkst -1

 

Good luck!

 

 
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Posted: #21

the work you do is terrific. am trying it myself. thnx
 
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Posted: #22

Great stuff RED. I have to say I like these simplified capping techniques. Do you have an idea of the record of you plays? Keep it up!
 
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Posted: #23

Played SAC-PHO under, CHAR-UTAH over, and PORT-N.O. over last night. Those were the biggest differences between your numbers and the actual total. Went 3-0 last night. Keep it up, you might be on to something here!
 
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Posted: #24

First of all, the thing with ATS (projected spread) I think it's a stupid idea and it should remain as a try. A failed one.
That went 1-3 NBA and 2-4 NCAAB so I am sending it right now in the recycle bin.
 
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Posted: #25

And now, to keep the theme of this thread, let's see the over / under stuff:

NBA

por-no over 184

sac-pho under 224

NCAAB

uconn-louvi over 137

wcar-dav over 150

siena-stpet over 131.5

appst-gasou under 156

but-wigb over 128

kan-bay over 153

 

So, tonight:

NBA 2-0

NCAAB 4-2

 

Overall records (4 days):

NBA 10-5 (66.6%) and NCAAB 28-13 (68.2%).

 

See you later with projected totals.

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