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Folks, don’t over think this one. Zimmer is one of the best defensive minds in football, and if a rookie QB can beat the looks he’s going to be giving him all game then I will pay to see it.
I don’t see this one ever being really in question. Yes Vikes will stall some on offense but Bears will not be able to move ball with any consistency. Vikes -3.5 Vikes 26 Bears 17 |
paymebookie | 1 |
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GL Bads, much respect brotha.
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badlands | 16 |
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You;re welcome, just trying to help. I'd like to think I know the Panthers as good as anyone. Let's get this $$$!
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paymebookie | 3 |
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Hope you fellas have had good weeks so far. It's that time of week where I chime in on the Panthers. Hope to keep the hot streak going.
This game comes down to one thing in my opinion, one teams superior strength versus the others obvious weakness. Cats D line versus the Fins O line. Two noticeable injuries with Pouncey out for the Fins and Charles Johnson out for the Cats. Both are big, but I think the Panthers overcome this lose with rotating some of their young DE's. Hardy is playing, and like Cam Wake he's a total game changer. I foresee the Panthers D Line making multiple plays in the backfield, and forcing Tannehill into several 3rd and longs. For anyone who's watched Dolphins games knows exactly what that means....BAD DECISIONS. Like in the Patriots game I suspect the Dolphins WILL get pressure on Cam, the difference in this game is sometimes that actually hurts the defense as Cam will rip off chunks of yards, where Tannehill will not. One's comfortable in that situation, the other one is mistake prone. Smitty will probably have Grimes on him and this will be a match-up worth watching. They know each other well from Grimes days in ATL. I say Grimes actually does a good job on him this week, and holds Smitty to something like 5/45. Throw out the short week, trap game crap for these Panthers. They are playing inspired football and you cannot question this teams focus. They are one game behind the Saints for the division and they know they cannot slip up and need to take care of business. That's what they do again today. Prediction: 24-16 Panthers |
paymebookie | 3 |
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Keep in mind also that the Saints are 2-2 on the road this season with their largest margin of victory being 8 @ Chicago. Mike Smith is fighting for his job here folks...I just see no way this one gets out of hand.
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paymebookie | 5 |
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Hey folks, back again. Still trying to shake my hangover from MNF, BofA stadium was about as loud and as rockin' as I'd ever seen it. Brady at a chance at the end, but my 27-20 prediction was almost spot on. At the end of the day the ticket cashed so I hope I was able to help some of you out who read my analysis on the game.
On to tonight's game....... I don't have a lot of time to list all of my reasons, but I will say this is obviously one of those games that looks like a complete mismatch. ATL hasn't came within 10 pts in any of their last 4 games, and now they're suppose to stay within 10 pts of one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL? My money says they will. I think losing Jabari Greer is huge for the Saints, he was without question their best cover corner. Now in his place comes 2nd year, 5th round pick out of Samford Corey White. Not exactly someone who strikes fear into the eyes of Matty Ice. Also the 50/50 game time decision designation given to Darren Sproles is significant as well. Sproles IS what makes this team so dynamic. His ability to leak out and catch those screens and short passes and turn them into 20-30 yard plays in uncanny. If he goes he still will not be close to 100%, and will affect the game plan accordingly. Matt Ryan is still a very good NFL QB, he's dealt with a lot of injuries this year but I think this might be the healthiest Roddy White has been all year. White, added in with Douglas and Gonzalez and you have plenty the firepower needed to stay within the # versus this Saints team with a HUGE game on deck next week with the Seahawks. I think this will be a game that goes back and forth, and one that will give Matty Ice the ball in his hand with a chance to win the game. Prediction: 30-26 Saints GL to all! |
paymebookie | 5 |
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Quote Originally Posted by ShadowWarrior: Your statistical analysis is super but also please allow for Tom's poor stats on dropped passes and rookie wrs and no Gronk. So the poor passer points can be at least graded down a bit. Panthers have played Seattle and SF tough. NE coming off a bye week. May have a rout but I do not think so. Both sides have good chance to win. You nailed it, I had a couple of those rookie WR's in fantasy...and it's been frustrating to say the least. I think Dobson will get some looks on some deep balls for sure. It will indeed be a close game, that's for certain. NE will not come in here and dominate. GL to you in whatever play you make! |
paymebookie | 37 |
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replied to
Patriots Money Line= Biggest Bet Of The Month!! You can bank this play won't lose!!
in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by AlphaandOmega: Everyone who gambles will have a game that loses. Everyone who gambles will have a losing day. Everyone who gambles will have a bad weekend. But only the real real good ones always win their biggest bets of the week, month, year!! New England MONEY LINE is my Biggest Bet of the Month! The reasons are many to list but much like last night, where people took Alex Smith over Peyton Manning and are scratching their heads today wondering how dumb they were to do that, so will those who take Cam Newton over Tom Brady tonite!! Brady 13 TD's 6 INT 82.7 rating Peyton 34 Tds 6 INT 118.3 rating Broncos at home Patriots on road The comparisons between last night and tonights game has nothing in common. GL |
AlphaandOmega | 58 |
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Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074: Nice writeup but unbiased?... but I am confident saying the entire gameplan will be based around our running game I understand rooting for a team after years of adversity finally achieving and getting national exposure. I understand your pride and fondness for your team and wish you luck despite being on the other side. I caught myself several times deleting "us" or "our" and adding "the panthers".......but the breakdown is an unbiased approach. Facts are facts, #s are #s. It has zero to do with "fondness" for my team, or rooting for my team after years of adversity. You will not last long betting sports if you bet with your heart, you and I both know that. This has everything to do with providing people that may be less informed about this matchup than I am the opportunity to dive into the #'s and see why I made the prediction I did. GL Sir. My "fondness" and "pride" will be cashing a ticket come about midnight...if you change your mind perhaps you can do the same |
paymebookie | 37 |
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Quote Originally Posted by kwangusbeef: name a qb of bradys caliber that carolina faced this year. if you look at bradys stats alone, you would never think that he's a qb for 7-2 team. the game is played by players and coaches and its all about adjustments during the game. if it was just about numbers why even play at all? also please give me a big game where cam newton stepped up and lead the team to a victory. Valid points. We obviously haven't faced a QB that is similar to Brady, but again my points are based off his production versus defenses hes faced that are similar to the Panthers. What I will promise you is Brady will NOT come in here tonight and have a ton of success throwing the ball all over the field. I guarantee it. As for Newton, he has underperformed in big games. 100% accurate statement. I mentioned I think the gameplan will not put the weight on Cam's back, but rather our running backs. Unlike his first couple of years, he is not being asked to win games by himself. By his own admission he is now taking what is given to him and relying on his defense. Cam does not have the pressure this year, and its shown. The thing is, and I think most would agree is in order for the Patriots to win Brady has to have a huge game...whereas the Panthers just need Cam to take care of the football and take what the defense gives him. |
paymebookie | 37 |
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Quote Originally Posted by usikbasterd: despite their impressive win at san fran....they beat ATL, TB, MINNESOTA, and STL during their 5 game win streak...ATL,TB,MINNY,AND STL have a combined 10 wins...they haven't really beaten anybody besides san fran..but san fran isn't exactly dominating this year either Correct sir. They have just done what they've suppose to do, which is pound lesser teams. To the tune of 168-48 they've beat those 5 teams you've mentioned. Who have the Patriots beat beside the Saints? Against a good Bengals team they mustered up 6 points. Jets? Falcons? Dolphins? Steelers? The two common opponents are Falcons and Bucs. Pats outscored them 53-30, and Panthers outscored them 65-23. Again, if those commenting already know which side their on tonight then please leave this thread up to the undecided. No sense in muddying the water. |
paymebookie | 37 |
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Quote Originally Posted by usikbasterd: you know those 2 games pats played cincy and NYJ early in the season were played without gronkowski...not hating on ur pick but adding another perspective...i feel like in the beginning of the year...tom brady was struggling because he has a whole new cast of wrs...but we're in week 11 now...and i think theyve been more in sync lately as far as the offense goes..i think carolina is OVER valued at this point and i certainly do acknowledge the strength of their front 7 but tom brady has seen it all....patriots as an underdog off a bye? forget about it...give me hall of fame plus the points Gronk played in their last game that they lost to the Jets bossman. Not here to having a pissing contest...you could be right. I just wanted to give some #'s to help people with their decision. |
paymebookie | 37 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Meatsicle: Great write up and I agree with your analysis, but the Pats lost the 2nd game to the Jets 30-27. Correct. I had a typo there. They've split with the Jets. Won w/o Gronk and lost with him. |
paymebookie | 37 |
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Quote Originally Posted by No_Contest: GL, Just wanna add that the Pat's offense has improved since the return of Gronk. There is no question about it. He is the one dimension of that offense that is nearly impossible to gameplan against. The Panthers rank 9th giving up 47 yds a game to opposing TE's. Gronk will get his yards, but my prediction is predicated off getting pressure on Brady and not allowing him the time for Gronk's routes to develop. Kuechly is also awesome at dropping back into coverage, and I expect him to be on Gronk on some of his over the middle routes. GL |
paymebookie | 37 |
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Quote Originally Posted by WarpedPath: Wow nice write up. Forgot the most important thing though Brady vs Newton. Pats roll homey If it was only that easy huh. Brady has been mediocre at best when he faces formidable D-lines. I gave you the #'s above.... King Brady in 4 games facing like D-lines is completing 49% of his passes, and the King has ONLY THROWN 2 TD's in those games. All I am saying is temper your lofty expectations. Could I be wrong? Always. But my $'s on his struggles against top defenses continuing tonight. GL |
paymebookie | 37 |
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Back again, I only chime in periodically when I feel I have information that is worthwhile to pass on. I will preface this post with that fact I am a big Panthers fan, and have been a season ticket holder since their inception. With that said, I am not biased in any way when it comes to $.
In my analysis I really focused on the 4 games that I felt provided the Patriots with similar opposition as they'll face tonight. Those 4 games are the Jets (x2), Cinci and Dophins games. These teams have very similar defenses, most notably the D lines. I chose to focus on the D lines specifically because it's no secret the ONLY way you'll have success vs Brady is with a consistent pass rush and getting creative with how you pressure him to keep him off balance. In those 4 games Brady's totals are 72-145 (49% comp) with 2 TDs/3 Int's, 181 yd passing avg with his MOST yards being 228 in a single game (2nd Jets game). That's right...4 games, 2 TD's and missing his targets on over half of his throws. Quick breakdown: Jets (1st game): 19-39 (48%) 185 yds 1 TD. Patriots won this game 13-10 (-10.5 fav), Jets didn't help themselves with 1 lost fumble and 3 Int's thrown. Cinci: 18-38 (47%) 197 yds 1 Int. In bad weather the Patriots lost 13-6 (-2 fav), they forced 1 Int and 1 fumble. Dolphins: 13-22 (59%) 116 yds 1 TD 1 Int. Patriots won 27-17 (-6.5 fav), Tannehill certainly helped with his 1 fumble and 2 Int's. Jets (2nd game): 22-46 (47%) 228 yds 1 Int. Patriots won 30-27 (-3.5 fav), Geno helped the cause with throwing a pick 6. *In these 4 games the Pats surrendered 19 sacks. Again, the Panthers D Line is very similar to these 4. Defense Both teams rank in the top 10, Pats #8 and Panthers #1 in total defense. Panthers have given up 9 total TDs, while Pats have allowed 17. These 2 teams are eerily similar in two other categories, sacks and interceptions. Panthers have 29 sacks and 13 Int's on the year while the Pats have 29 sacks and 12 Int's. Run D Panthers are ranked #2 (allowing 82 yds/game), Pats #19 (allowing 129 yds/game). Panthers have only given up 2 rushing TD's this year, and the Pats have allowed 4. Edge: significant edge to Panthers Pass D Panthers are #2, Pats #6. Very close in #'s, Panthers allowing 6.6yds per completion, Pats allowing 6.7. Panthers have given up 7 passing TDs, while the Pats have allowed 12. Edge: Push Rushing - offense The two teams rank #13 & #14 respectfully in rushing. Both teams have missed key contributors in this category for most of the season...Pats get Vereen back tonight, and Panthers got Stewart back 2 games ago. Edge: slight edge to Panthers Even statistically, why the edge to Panthers? I think the loss of both Wilfork and his replacement, Kelly, will allow the Panthers to have success with their running game. D-Will as the home run guy, and Tolbert/Stewart to wear down the interior D Line of the Pats. Also Cam's ability to extend drives running the ball should be noted. I think Belichick will be putting a lot of pressure on Cam, and Cam will have several opportunities to make plays outside the pocket with his legs. As far as running games go, I'd say the Jets are the closest to the Panthers as far as their mentality on offense, and schemes. In the 2 Jets/Pats games the Pats gave up a total of 306 yards rushing. To the others the Pats gave up 162 yds to the Bengals, and 156 yds to the Dolphins. Passing - offense The two teams Passing #'s are actually very similar, Pats are completing 57% (for 232 yds/game) of their passes, and the Panthers are completing 62.7% (for 196 yds/game). Pats are 25th in passing, Panthers are 31st. I think this is more of a result of each teams offensive make-up, Pats more of a passing team, where the Panthers rely much more on their running game. Edge: slight edge to the Patriots Prediction Without knowing (or caring) about where the $ is going I would have to assume off a bye the Pats are getting a lot of the $$ pouring in on them +3. This crap about Belichick/Brady off a bye being untouchable is ridiculous...while the past 5 years they are 4-1 off a bye (I don't look back 10 years, sorry), they have only played 2 teams with winning records during that span, losing to the Steelers by 8 in 2011 and beating the Ravens by a FG in OT back in 2010 23-20. Off their bye last year they allowed a 6-10 Bills team to hang 31 pts on them...they were outgained by by 140 yds, allowed Fitzpatrick to throw for 337 yds, and won by 6 pts in large part to the Bills 3 costly turnovers. I think the Panthers are in line for a huge win tonight..The Panthers in my opinion will control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and this is the single biggest factor to me in determining the outcome of this game. When Pats get pressure on Cam I think he will make enough plays with his legs to pick up some key 1st downs and extend drives. On the flip side I see Brady getting his bell rung on a couple of different occasions. I think DWill/Tolbert/Stewart will wear down that D-Line and down the stretch will be able to rip off yards in bunches. Talib back will help the Pats no question about it, but I am confident saying the entire gameplan will be based around our running game and mixing in low risk passing plays to Olsen/Lafell. I think you will however see Cam take at least 2 deep shots to Ginn at some point. This ain't you grandpa's Carolina team. They are playing the best defense in the NFL and they have the front 4 to keep Brady off balance all night. Save the "who have they played" junk....bottom line is they have hammered the teams they've suppose to of hammered, and easily could be a 8-1 team as we had the Seahawks and Bills both dead to rights. Riverboat Ron is taking more chances, the D is down right nasty, and our players are really rallying behind their motto of "being very relevant". Tonight they will show the world that they mean business, with them playing the best ball of their season and with their confidence at an all time high I predict: Cats 27 Patriots 20 GL to all of you guys tonight in whatever you decide. If you want to bash my analysis feel free, I am sure there will be quite a few haters. |
paymebookie | 37 |
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Quote Originally Posted by lakesh0wtime: Any thoughts on the 1st half 26.5 o/u? I would lean under 1H, again I like the over in 2H at anything under 27. GL! |
paymebookie | 14 |
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Guys, I hope everyone had a good weekend, my weekend was turned upside down when the Texans decided to let Luck/Hilton look like Montana/Rice in the 2nd half. It's been a while since I've seen such polar opposite halves but BOTH teams.
Anyways, it happens. On to the next one. Below is some information I put together regarding tonight's game, hopefully some of you half bettors and/or prop players may get something from it as well. 1st half GB: 15.2 (36% run vs 64% pass) / Opponent 7.2 Total pts: 22.5 (28, 24, 30, 9, 6, 20, 41) **held wash, det, balt, clev to a COMBINED 6 pts in 1st half 2nd half GB: 15.0 (47% run vs 53% pass) / Opponent 15.2 Total pts: 30.2 **total has only gone UNDER 30 once in their 7 games in 2nd half (34, 34, 34, 22, 31, 30, 34) *** they have given up 20, 20, 20, 6, 17, 10, 14 in 2nd half of games **** they have scored 14, 14, 14, 16, 13, 14, 20 in 2nd half of games. *** 19 pt total average in last 4 1st halves **** 31.75 pt total average in last 4 2nd halves Against the run, GB has been very good. They've played some of the leagues top rushers and have held them to: Peterson- 83 total yards Rice - 49 total yards Bush - 69 total yards Gore - 65 total yards My plays based off the information I have is: GB 1H -7 Forte UNDER 112.5 total yards I will look to hammer the 2nd half line if 27 or less. GL folks! |
paymebookie | 14 |
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Badlands, I respect the crap outta you, been following your plays for years. Its called gambling and you could be right on TB, but I'm telling you this is a hungry Panthers team smelling blood. TB is is disarray.
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badlands | 26 |
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wrong side guys!
Glennon Mike James |
Hypnos2004 | 5 |
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