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weeble5672
weeble5672

Quote Originally Posted by weeble5672:

Posted: Apr. 10, 2018 - 6:09 PM ET "Quote" Quote Originally Posted by m0rtgageguy: Posted: 12 minutes ago "Quote" Can I be moderator?If you have interest, I would suggest contacting Covers directly.

How much do we get paid? 

Lawton1
Lawton1

Any strong totals for Wednesday 04/11

weeble5672
weeble5672
Can I be moderator?
m0rtgageguy
m0rtgageguy

So, 2000:1 against? That seems right. 

Also, what is the probability of:

-Bases loaded nobody out, 3-0 count, and inning ending with zero runs?

-A total of zero runs over 5.5 innings? (Eg: the score in the middle of the 4th with the road team leading, is the FINAL score).  

Lawton1
Lawton1

You mean Tuesday night? Also, there seems to be a change in pitching.

Dickey227
Dickey227

Wow and the mods box this guy. Incredible. The ONE entertaining poster with some character/attitude in years and he gets boxed. No wonder this forum is dead. 

m0rtgageguy
m0rtgageguy

Definitely <1%. The questions is, is it <0.1% ?

m0rtgageguy
m0rtgageguy

2 outs, nobody on. paint_help

m0rtgageguy
m0rtgageguy

For example: “March 29 totals”, “Cards/Mets”, “Why I like the Angels”. 

That way you don’t have to scroll past all the “3/29” posts just to see games you’re not interested in.

KeyElement
KeyElement
Ban-happy power-trip mods got rid of some of the most colorful characters we had over the years.
Kevinwalsh1313
Kevinwalsh1313

Stats, trends, park factors, pitchers' ERAs, WHIPs. 

What else to look for?

In 2016 I rod Kershaw Unders and games in Colo and AZ Overs. 
clepto
clepto
Quote Originally Posted by clepto:

Have we seen this in the NHL before? I don't recall. Safe to say I'm locked and loaded on UNDER 7 -125. Scoring down lately. 4-3 I push? SOLD!


Straight outta the lockout season. All totals were 6.5's, sometimes 7. We would even see a rare 7.5.

I remember having the "Over 7" in a Pittsburgh/Atlanta game. It was 3-3 after 2 periods (freeroll yo). Stayed 3-3 in regulation.

There was also a 7.5 at some point. Game was very very low scoring.  
m0rtgageguy
m0rtgageguy
Bro that avatar. Like, have you ever watched the WWF during the attitude era? Please don't insult the WWF by putting its logo next to the sh*tshow we call the NFL. 

And yes, I said WWF, cause that's what it is. WWE is g@y they only renamed it bc of crybaby libtards.
vetdrm
vetdrm

Stfu

m0rtgageguy
m0rtgageguy
Well now I think they might have a shot 
m0rtgageguy
m0rtgageguy
Quote Originally Posted by BrewRays:

For 2016/2017 the odds of a game going under 5.5 with 4 goals being scored was 47%. 
Considering you had 
-  10 minutes still left in the second period
-  A 2-2 tie versus 3-1 or 4-0 score
-  New hooking/slashing rules with more penalties

the odds of that score staying under 5.5 would probably have been somewhere in the mid teens or low 20's.  


Your stats are incomplete. You say "under 5.5 with 4 goals being scored".. is that "4 goals being scored at exactly 10:00 in the second period" ? That's the most important part.

Because if it is, I am finding a hard time believing it. The bulk of the 47% would come from 4-0 and 3-1 games, which means 2-2 games, like you said, go over 80-85% of the time. 

This means that to get to that weighted average of 47%, assuming that 3-1 and 4-0 games combined occur at equal frequency as the 2-2 games, which stay under about 15% of the time, 4-0 and 3-1 games would have to stay under 75% of the time (!!). 
m0rtgageguy
m0rtgageguy
Haha 3-2 

Now the cashout was a GENIUS bet. Cheers and on to tomorrow 
m0rtgageguy
m0rtgageguy
Here's the situation: 

I needed the CGY/LAK UNDER 5.5 to win a parlay for $1310. My risk was $240 so the pot is $1550.

Now I know the cashout proposition is usually very very bad for the bettors because why else the bookies would offer it? The cash out was for $321, or a net profit of $81. I don't lose. 

The question is, were my chances of hitting that Under not worst than 20.7% ?

The score was 2-2 with just around 10:00 left in the 2nd. All it takes is 2 goals and I get nothing. 2 goals in a full period and a half. But wait, just ONE more goal and it leaves room for an empty netter. 

I think my true odds were something around 12.5% to win this bet. Maybe less because of the empty net possibility. 

What do you say?
m0rtgageguy
m0rtgageguy
0.4% now. I legit believe they have a better chance than 0.4%!

A 32-point second half comeback surely happens more often than 1 in 250.. in a Bowl game!
m0rtgageguy
m0rtgageguy
Oh
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