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Fishy. Fishy. Fishy.
This game wasn't originally on my radar, but this is shaping out to be a skins play or no play. Very suspicious of the line movement here. I don't know how it's going to happen, but this looks like the Redskins keep it close or win this one outright. I like to play games when the writing is on the wall like this one. Follow sharps / Vegas, not public money. GL
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Raiders......straight up......outright......won't need the points......but I'll take them anyway.
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I'm not saying the Cowboys win this game, but if you're making that argument these are the points you should be focusing on.
Dallas got screwed before the last meeting with their travel schedule playing on Sunday night and arriving home around 5:30 am Monday morning giving them just two days to prepare. This time around, they have ten days to prepare and the revenge factor. And one of the most telling stats that I have been watching since last season, teams that just played the Seattle Seahawks are 8-17-1 SU the following week and on a current 0-7 streak. They physically beat down teams to the point that it leaves them with a hangover. Both secondaries suck, but Sanchez hasn't been going down field and has been doing more "dink and dunk" than anything else. Most people think the Eagles are clearly the better team based on the most recent meeting on thanksgiving, but with Vegas setting the line at just 3 it's essentially a pick'em game. IMO, that's a Cowboys line, and I think they'll be much more prepared for this matchup. |
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Public hammering Indy. Indy without their top CB. This is cleveland or no play IMO. This dog is barking.
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I've seen this before. Public hammering one side and line is moving the other way. Once again the writing is on the wall. Jacksonville is the play here. Sucker bet in the making.
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This game was not originally on my radar, but after seeing how much money is flying in on the Texans, I'm starting to look into Jacksonville as a play. Fading the public on plays like this has worked out very well for me in recent weeks. If the line seems too good to be true, it usually is.
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Quote Originally Posted by rkapur105: These expert predictions are hilarious after the fact. After the fact? You obviously didn't read the thread.
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Let's see....
Cards offense struggled. Fitz didn't play. Floyd was nonexistent. Ellington injured. They didn't score 20. Atlanta did. I didn't see that coming at all.
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And then there's REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT! 70% of the public on the Arizona Cardinals everywhere you look and the line is moving the other way. The writing is on the wall. Atlanta's the play in this one.
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Fishy business with this line. I'd go Jax if I was gonna make a play.
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Quote Originally Posted by king_of_diamond: The collapse of the cardinals has already started. They are going to have a very tough time ending the season with wins. To start you now have Stanton at QB who can not move the ball at all. Add to that that Larry Fitz is really banged up (sprained mcl) and may not play again this week. Michael Floyd has been non existent, even with Fitz out, when most people thought he would overtake Fitz as Arizona's #1 WR. And then there's Ellington. He's also banged up. The team is clearly concerned as they just signed michael bush yesterday. Ellington has been real bad the past few weeks averaging less than 1.9 yards a carry his last three games (89 yards on 47 carries). I don't expect him to get going even against the sh1tty Falcons defense. On the other side, you have more talent with Atlanta's offense. I get it that they also haven't played well, but the talent and weapons are still there. Edge at QB. Edge at WR. Edge at RB. The offensive line and defense are serious question marks, but I definitely expect them to be able to put up 20+ points pretty easily while I'm not convinced that Arizona can do the same. Add in Zona is flying across the country to play a 1:00 game. Add in that the Falcons are typically a tough team at home, even if that hasn't necessarily been true this season. Add in that Atlanta is still tied for first in their division (as ridiculous as that is) and they'll be a hungry team looking to win and stay in it. Also add in that Zona played seattle last week. There's a crazy stat out there that I'll try and find, but teams that play seattle one week typically lose the next mostly attributed to how physical the Hawks play. They beat teams up and they stomped the cards last week. Add in that 75% of the public is on the cards........Sucker bet in the making. Keep the 2.5 points. I've got Atlanta winning this one outright! I need to change one thing in my analysis. This is a 4:00 game, not a 1:00. It doesn't change anything for me. Rolling with Atlanta.
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The collapse of the cardinals has already started. They are going to have a very tough time ending the season with wins. To start you now have Stanton at QB who can not move the ball at all. Add to that that Larry Fitz is really banged up (sprained mcl) and may not play again this week. Michael Floyd has been non existent, even with Fitz out, when most people thought he would overtake Fitz as Arizona's #1 WR. And then there's Ellington. He's also banged up. The team is clearly concerned as they just signed michael bush yesterday. Ellington has been real bad the past few weeks averaging less than 1.9 yards a carry his last three games (89 yards on 47 carries). I don't expect him to get going even against the sh1tty Falcons defense. On the other side, you have more talent with Atlanta's offense. I get it that they also haven't played well, but the talent and weapons are still there. Edge at QB. Edge at WR. Edge at RB. The offensive line and defense are serious question marks, but I definitely expect them to be able to put up 20+ points pretty easily while I'm not convinced that Arizona can do the same. Add in Zona is flying across the country to play a 1:00 game. Add in that the Falcons are typically a tough team at home, even if that hasn't necessarily been true this season. Add in that Atlanta is still tied for first in their division (as ridiculous as that is) and they'll be a hungry team looking to win and stay in it. Also add in that Zona played seattle last week. There's a crazy stat out there that I'll try and find, but teams that play seattle one week typically lose the next mostly attributed to how physical the Hawks play. They beat teams up and they stomped the cards last week. Add in that 75% of the public is on the cards........Sucker bet in the making. Keep the 2.5 points. I've got Atlanta winning this one outright!
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Too easy. Vegas knows best. They were begging you to take the steelers.
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Total jets line. I can't believe all the people in here who don't see the writing on the wall. 75-80% of the public on Pitt and the line is moving the other way. What more do you need to see? It's jets or no play. Don't fall for the sucker bet. I'll take jets +3.5 / 4 and the ML. They're begging you to drop money in the Steelers right now.
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With the ebb and flow of an NFL season, this game is ripe for a KC upset / SD letdown. I'm leaning towards KC money line on this one.
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Quote Originally Posted by SniperMoney: Miami coming off a devastating loss, now on the road. This one should be a 10 point Chicago win. Knowshown Moreno is also out for Miami. The 3.5 is just begging for Miami money. Very rarely do I bet on Chicago, but I like them a lot in this spot. Miami will not have the offense to keep up, and they will not be able to stop Matt Forte on the otherside of the ball. Don't overthink this one. Chicago -3 (Bought the hook just in case) I totally disagree......not with your pick (I'd be on bears too), but the 3.5 line is begging for Chicago money, not Miami money. Line should be higher IMO. Seems fishy to be that low.
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That's a Niners line if I ever saw one. Only -3? That's basically a pick'em considering home team usually gets 3 automatically. Seems to me they are dangling 3 out there hoping everyone jumps on it. Seems real low to me. I was thinking 6.5 sounded about right. Niners FTW.
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Both defenses are suspect. Bears have better weapons on offense and better special teams. Home dog FTW.
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Packers are giving 3, not getting 3, and there's nothing fishy about it. Makes total sense to me. Public will be hammering GB with the news that Rodgers is back. Meanwhile, I'll be backing the bears on the ML. There's no telling if Rodgers will be tentative or a bit rusty. Plus, the bears are a much better home team (5-2) than road team.
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Pats still playing for the number one seed. If they win and Denver loses, it's theirs. Denver losing doesn't seem all that realistic, but New England should be motivated. They both play at the same time.
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