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@in8nits... may be true but sometimes relaxed teams just play relaxed. They are pros after all and the desire to win doesn't leave their blood or instinct
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@VitoPuck... no offense taken bud
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ADDED TWO PLAYS

Detroit v Buffalo over 5 -107 2 units

Toronto v Tampa o5.5 -120  2 units

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Quote Originally Posted by VitoPuck:

With all of this info im definitely going for with the under!!

 

best of luck

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Confirmed that Nilsson is starting for the Islanders.

He brings with him a home GAA of 3.04 and a GAA average of 3.39 when playing with 1 days rest this season so my play does not change. Season GAA of 3.22 and has allowed 4 or more goals in 6 of his last 10 starts

 

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Quote Originally Posted by UndertakerNS:

Your not worried that a lot of the stats you are using were taken when Tavares, Moulson, Okposo, and Grabber were playing?

 

no

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Continued .......

 

The Sens are allowing more than 2.85 against on the season.  The Islanders are 13-3 over against such teams with those games averaging 6.5 total goals in the second half of the season the last 3 years and this season are 9-2 over in such games. 

At home in general, the NYI are 23-12 over the total against teams that average more than 2.85 goals the last 3 seasons with those games seeing an avg of 6.7 goals

Finally NY is 7-1 over the total at home against teams that average more than 29.5 shots on goal in the second half of this season with those games seeing an average of 7.4 goals.

The Islanders are the 3rd worst defensive team in the league allowing 3.23 goals against while the Sens are the second worst defensive team in the league allowing 3.26 goals per game

It's no wonder because The Sens have allowed 40+ shots in 5 of their last 9 games. These two last met 3 games ago and that game ended 2-1. I consider that result an anomaly. The game saw 63 total shots and based on averages it should have seen 67 goals.

On the season the Sens allow 34.7 shots against and 37.4 shots against on the road. They allow 3.26 goals against on the season and 3.13 goals per game away.

 The converstion rate is criticial. 

Both teams are allowing roughly a goal for every 10 shots on net.  With the Islanders averaging 30.1 shots against on the season and almost 30 at home while averaging 32 shots per game at home, the statistical breakdown gives both teams a higher than average probability of netting 3 goals each tonight.

In their last 10 games the Sens have averaged 36.4 shots against.  The Islanders just over 30.

Finally some quick trends to close out this long winded post.
Over is 7-2 in Senators last 9 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Over is 7-1 in Islanders last 8 in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation.

Over is 8-2 in Islanders last 10 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.

Over is 7-2 in Islanders last 9 Tuesday games.

Over is 14-4 in Islanders last 18 home games.

Over is 8-3 in Islanders last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. 

Over is 11-5 in Islanders last 16 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.

Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York.

So statistically and based on my mathematical/statistical data runs my handicap for this game is 6.89.  When I consider the situational data supporting both teams, I bumped this game up to a 4 unit play.

Best of luck if you tail. Remember, if you disagree, you always have the option of passing or fading,.  These views are mine and mine only so I leave the betting up to you.

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NHL YTD 160-141 +51.18 units

Senators v Islanders over 5.5 4 units

This is only my second 4 unit play of the season but is supported by a ton of statistical and situational data. I wanted to write it up so people can decide for themselves if they want to pass, tail or fade.  As always, bet within your means and only bet what you can afford to lose. Nothing is ever guaranteed, no matter how strong the play.

This is a meaningless game for both teams.  I expect both teams to play loose and have a little fun out on the ice.

First we’ll start with the goaltending.

Anderson is expected to get the nod in net for the Senators. He carries a 2.64 GAA against the Islanders in 12 career starts. He’s 32-18 over the total in all his starts this season and is 14-8 over in road starts.

Nabokov is listed as the probable starter for tonight. He has a 2.92 GAA in his career against the Senators. He’s 21-14 over in all starts this season and 13-8 over in home starts.

The Sens have been an over team all season going 45-32 over the total. They are 27-18 over the total in the second half of the season the last 2 seasons and play their 4th game in 7 nights tonight a situation that has seen them go 23-15 over with those games averaging 6.4 goals per game.

The Sens have been particularly profitable playing over the total off a game that saw them go under off 1 or more games. They are 22-9 over the total off 1 or more unders this season with those games averaging 6.8 goals.

The Islanders have also been an over team this season going 44-32 over in all games with their games averaging 6.1 goals per game on the season and 39-24 over at home with a total of 5.5 the last 3 seasons

In the second half of this season they are 14-5 over with games averaging 6.6 goals and 19-8 over off a division game with an average score of 6.5 goals.  Playing off 2 straight division games they are 12-4 over the last 2 seasons averaging 6.5 total goals.  Coming off 1 or more unders this season they are 20-11 over with these games averaging 6.4 total goals and they are 23-9 over the total having lost 2 of their last 3 games averaging 6.6 goals in those games

If they are off a loss vs a division rival they are 15-6 over the last two seasons averaging a combined 6.5 goals.  In any game following a division game the Iles have seen those games aveage 7 goals per game and off 2 division games they have averaged 6.6 goals.

Some stat related situtions that apply include.

The Senators are 25-16 over the total against teams that average 29.5 or more shots on goal (6.4) and in the second half of the season against those same teams they are 18-10 over with those games averaging also 6.4 goals.

The Islanders are 11-3 over against teams that are poor power play killing teams who allow greater than 17.5% shorthanded goals with those games averaging 6.8 goals the last 2 seasonsIf those teams allow more than 19% shorthanded goals on the penalty kill the Islanders are are 8-1 over the last 2 seasons with those games averaging 7.3 total goals.

NY is 16-4 over at home against teams that allow more than 29.5 shots per game in the second half of the season the last 3 years with those games combining for 6.6 goals on average. If we then combine Islander games against teams that allow more than 29 shots and allow 17% or more shorthanded goal opportunities they are 10-2 over in the second half the last 2 seasons with those games averaging 7.1 goals.

The Sens, despite their poor penalty killing have a decent power play, scoring on more than 17% of their pp changes. The Islanders are 9-2 over at home against teams converting on 17.5% or more of their pp opportunities in the second half of this season with games averaging 7 goals.

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Passing OTT Calgary... not enough supporting data for me. my handicap is pretty tight.
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NHL YTD 151-127 +62.51 units

I've decided to do a write up on this game given that it is a 4 unit play for me.

As always, if you disagree, pass or fade.  Nobody is twisting your arm to follow. Lol

Also, please always bet within your means, comfort level and bankroll.  All our unit levels are different so no reason to bust yourself with one play.  No matter how strong a play is, anything can happen.  The players always have to perform.

DETROIT V TAMPA BAY OVER 5.5 +107  4 UNIT PLAY

First and foremost, my data runs make this game 6.77 goals. There is a good probability of both teams scoring 3 goals a piece according to my data runs.

Let’s get to some supporting information shall we?

First the goaltending.

JONAS GUSTAVSSON is confirmed for Detroit. He’s gone 7-3 over the total against division opponents this season and a 2.77 GAA in home games this season.

Bishop gets the start for the Lightning today.  He’s gone over the total in 3 of his last 4 starts overall. .

Detroit has gone 5-0-1 over the total in their last 6 games overall while the Lightning have gone 6-1 over the total in their last 7 games overall.

80 % of my handicapping is statistical and 20% factors situational trends and other information.  So with that said, there is plenty of supporting ammo for this play.

  •  Over is 7-0 in Lightning last 7 road games.
  • Over is 4-0 in Lightning last 4 Sunday games.
  • Over is 5-0 in Lightning last 5 games following a win.
  • Over is 6-0 in Lightning last 6 vs. Atlantic.
  • Over is 6-0 in Lightning last 6 in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation.
  • Over is 6-1 in Lightning last 7 overall.
  • Over is 5-1 in Lightning last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
  • Over is 4-1 in Lightning last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
  • Over is 4-1 in Lightning last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Over is 4-1 in Lightning last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 41-16-4 in Lightning last 61 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-0-1 in Red Wings last 6 overall.
  • Over is 4-0 in Red Wings last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
  • Over is 4-0-1 in Red Wings last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 5-1 in Red Wings last 6 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
  • Over is 3-1-1 in Red Wings last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Over is 7-3-2 in Red Wings last 12 vs. Atlantic

OK time for more detailed analysis of some situations.

TAMPA BAY is 13-6 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season with the average score 6.2. they are 11-3 over the total v teams with a winning percentage of .400 to .490 this second half of the season with their games averaging 6.5

Detroit doesn’t take a lot of penalties.  Tampa Bay is 22-11 over the total v teams that average 4 or fewer penalties a game with the average score in this games 6.3.

The Lightning are 17-7 over v teams that allow 29.5 shots or more on goal in the second half of this season with the game averaging 6.6 total goals and 27-13 over the total v teams with a PP coversion rate of 17.5% or better in the second half of the season the last 3 years with games averaging 6.6 combined goals. 

If we combine that with teams that also average 29 or more shots on goal, they are 13-3 over the second half of this season with games averaging 6.9 total goals.  That stat for the full season, (TB v teams averaging 29 or more shots and converting 17% or more on the PP sees Tampa 22-11 over the total with those games averaging 6.3 total goals.

The Bolts are 16-3 over the total against teams that average 29.5 shots on goal per game in the second half of this season with the average total score combining for 6.8 total goals.

As for Detroit, they are 20-11 over the total against good starters who have a .915 save percentage or better with the games averaging 6 combined goals.  Also, they are 17-0 OVER the total against teams that are poor on the power play who allow opponents to convert on 19% or more of their short handed opportunities. The average score in this games has been 6.

Tampa is 23-12 in the second half of the season this year with their games averaging 6.3. 

They are 12-3 over in March this season with their games averaging 6.7

They are 9-1 over on Sunday games the last 3 seasons with those games seeing 7.1 combined goals.  They are 24-14 over playing their 3rd game in 5 days this season and 17-11 over playing their 4th in 7 days.

The Bolts have not let down off of high scoring games going 17-9 over the total off a game that saw 7 or more total goals scored this season with the subsequent game averaging 6.1 total goals.

Tampa is 26-11 over off 2 straight wins the last 3 seasons with the games averaging 6.4. 

Tampa won the last meeting between these two.  The Red Wings are 10-3 over the total at home revenging a loss where their opponent scored 4 or more goals in the last 3 seasons with the games averaging 6.8 total goals

The Wings played last night and beat Toronto 4-2.  The Red Wings are 11-3 over the total off a win of 2 or more goals v a division rival over the last 3 seasons with the games averaging 6.5 total goals.

Therefore, when we factor recent form which has been high scoring for both these teams, the fact that Detroit must keep winning and forced to pinch and the situational data above, this has the makings of a high scoring entertaining meeting.


Best of luck if you tail.

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WINNER
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Frostbite22 ... nothing is ever a lock. some games just present a greater situational edge. The players still need to execute. Cheers
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Hey guys its been a while since I posted here at covers.  I've primarily been using twitter as a means to get my plays out to everyone ... you all know I like to post my rationale for games and I just find myself lacking time to do so. With that other medium, just posting the play suffices.  However, I have a lot of info for this game so figured I would post it and you can all make your minds up.

My documented record this season is 148-127 +54.51 UNITS

This is my first 4 unit play of the season.

LEAFS V FLYERS OVER 5.5 -120

First and foremost my spreadsheet data runs give me a handicap of 6.91 for this game.  That is a big edge.  20% of my handicapping takes into consideration trends and other data.  So, here is some additional information to consider as I did.

Toronto is 12-3 OVER in road games when they get 27 to 31 shots on goal over the last 3 seasons. (Avg score 6.7) The Flyers are averaging over 29.5 against shots per game and the Leafs are averaging 27.9 shots on goal per game and over 30 shots on goal per game over their last 3.

The Leafs are 26-12 over their last 38 games v teams allowing 29.5 shots per game or more. (games averaging 6.4 goals) and 14-5 over in that spot in the second half of this season. (games averaging 6.9 total goals).

Flyers 24-12 over v teams allowing 29.5 or more shots on goal his season, (6.3 combined goals) and 10-3 over if that team is converting on 17% or more on the pp. (with an average combined score of 6.9).

Flyers 19-10 over against teams who are allowing 2.85 or more goals against this season, (6.1 average goals) and 11-3 over against teams scoring 2.85 goals or more per game the second half of this season (games averaging a combined 7 goals per game). 

The Flyers are 20-8 over against teams scoring 2.85 or more goals per game this season (6.7 average)

The Flyers are playing with revenge.  In 20 such situations this season those games have averaged 6 c0mbined goals per game.

Both goalies tonight, Bernier and Mason are 2-1 over in their last 3 starts respectively and have horrible records against their respective opponents.

Mason has a fat 3.96 GAA .860 save % against Toronto in his 6 career starts against them and 3.45 GAA in his two starts v Toronto this season.  As for Bernier, he has a career 3.86 GAA v Philadelphia and 3.31 GAA when playing with 2 days rest this season.

The Leafs are 19-10 over the total in the second half of this season averaging 6.5 goals per game and 21-8 over the total when playing their 4th game in 7 days this season, (games averaging 6.5 goals)

Toronto is 12-7 over on two days rest ( 6-2-1 over the total in Maple Leafs last 9 on 2 days rest) and Flyers 21-13 over on 1 days rest this season.

Finally Over is 4-1 in Flyers last 5 vs. Atlantic division and the over 4-1 in Maple Leafs last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

Over is 18-7-2 in Flyers last 27 vs. Eastern Conference and they are coming off a game where they scored less than 2 goals. The Over is 7-3 in Flyers last 10 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.

PLEASE BET WITHIN YOUR MEANS ... A UNIT FOR ME MIGHT NOT BE THE SAME FOR YOU. Feel free to fade or pass if you disagree and by no means force extra action.

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Cash it folks!!!

Cheers
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Thank you gentlemen. Best of luck today.

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2012-13 196-169 +53.19 units
2013-14 206.5-191 +21.50 units

Friday play: La Liga; 3:00 PM EST

Granada v Valladolid over 2.25 +102 2 units

It’s been a bad couple weeks on the pitch so tail, fade or pass accordingly. Still in the positive on the year so that’s a good thing.  Let’s see if we can get another little roll going.

First we’ll start with some statistical information for this match.  Granada has scored 8 and conceded 13 in their 9 home games this season with those games averaging 2.33 total goals per game but most of those low scoring games were at the start of the season. I will get into recent home form later.  The visitors come in with 10 goals scored and 18 conceded in their 9 road games for a per game average of 3.11 total goals per road game.

Granada is tied for 3rd worst in the league in terms of most goals allowed on home soil while Valladolid is tied for 4th worst in terms of away goals conceded so given the home/away defensive records, both teams should find some opportunity in front of goal.

The visitors are tied for the final relegation spot in the league at 16 points while Granada, while in 13th place, is not too far away from the drop zone at 20 points so both teams should be motivated for the full 3 points here as a draw really doesn’t help them get out of the log jam at the bottom of the table.  Given the desire for both teams to want to win this match, we should see an attack minded game with plenty of chances and as mentioned, given the two sides home/away defensive record, we should see some goals as well.

Valladolid has conceded 2 or more goals in 11 of their 20 matches played this season which should give Granada some confidence.  5 of Valladolid’s last 6 away games on the domestic font have seen 3 or more goals with 4 of those 5 games combining for 4 or more goals.  They are 7-2 “over” 2.5 goals in their 9 road games this season.  They are 9-3 over 2.5 goals in their last 12 games overall in the league. 

They should take solace in the fact that their opponents, Granada have conceded 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 home games and has a significant injury list to deal with so they should look to take advantage of that and attack the hosts.  Dating back to last season, Valladolid have seen the over go 9-3 in their last 12 away games (7-3 over last 10 away).

As for the home side, I’ve already noted they have conceded 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 home games which has resulted in overs.  After starting the season healthy they went on a 5-0 under run at home but coinciding with a plague of injury problems, they have seen the over 2.5 go 4-0 in their last 3 home games.  With only 3 wins in 9 home games they have to figure they have a good shot at getting their 4th home win against a defensively weak Valladolid which again lends itself to my thoughts about an attack minded game. 

Granada are 6-2 “over” 2.5 goals in their last 8 league games overall so as you can see we have two teams that are 13-4 over the total in their last 17 combined games.

As for their recent performances against teams near the bottom of the table, Granada is 5-1 “over” the total in their last 6 games when hosting clubs in the bottom 6 of the table and their midfielder Piti has called this game a “final” describing their intent entering this match. Upon hearing this, Valladolid’s manager fired back that his team will also treat this game as a final and seek the win and the desperately needed 3 points. 

This total is low because of the offensive records of both teams of late, more so the hosts however, given the defensive frailties on both teams and the fact that they are both going to desperately seek the full 3 points, I expect an open, attack minded match with plenty of chances to hit the back of the net.  It will come down to whether or not the teams can finish their chances.  To back this up I considered that Valladolid concedes 17.9 shots per game on the road, among the worst in La Liga.  Granada is conceding an average of 14 goal attempts per game

My spreadsheets give me a total handicap for this game of 3.21 implying we see at least 3 goals with the final results pretty much all over the place (draw, home win, away win) so I will stay off the side and go for goals in this match.

I feel comfortable recommending the over 2.25 because of the fallback of half our stake being refunded should the game stall at 2 goals. I leave it up to you to decide whether or not to play the 2.5 or whether or not to tail , fade or pass.

fever
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Soccer / MONDAY SOCCER / View Post

Thanks guys

Added

Real Madrid v Celta Vigo over 4 -110 2units

This is a great spot for Real Madrid to make up some goal difference in the even that they creep their way back to the top of the table (right now sit 8 points behind Barcelona and Atletico Madrid who both played and won yesterday).  An expected win would put Madrid just 5 points behind the aforementioned 2 teams with plenty of games to be played.

Celta Vigo is in a relegation battle and Real Madrid should have no trouble disposing of them today but the only decision to make is by how much.  Ancelotti has decided to go all out and play direct football in these matches never taking his foot off the accelerator.  He has shown that in their recent home wins of 7-3, 5-1 and 4-0.

The reason I have not taken the handicap on Madrid though is their propensity to concede goals.  They only have 2 clean sheets at home in 8 league matches so far this season.  Now, Celta Viga are not going to upset Madrid but it is worth noting that they are averaging just over 1 goal per game and  have only failed to score twice in 8 road games.  They scored at Atletico Madrid in a 2-1 loss there, 3 goals at Real Sociedad and 2 goals in a 3-2 loss at Bilbao. So they have shown the can score on the road against decent teams.

5 of Real Madrid’s 8 home games finished with 4 or more goals and like I said, since Ancelotti changed tactics, they have become a scoring machine. 11 of Madrid’s 17 games on the season have seen 4 or more goals.  (65%) including their last 7 overall.  Again, they only have 4 clean sheets in 17 games this season so my spreadsheets are banking on an away goal.

Finally, it is interesting to note that when playing teams in the bottom 6 of the table at home, Real Madrid has seen the over 2.5 go 16-4 in the last 20 matches.  14 of those 16 games saw 4 or more goals.

 

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Soccer / MONDAY SOCCER / View Post

Udinese v Verona over 2.5 +108

Udinese have kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 games overall. In addition to that, the over 2.5 goals has cashed in 6 of their last 11 against teams that are in 2 to 10th in the table.  They have kept only 3 clean sheets in 10 home matches this season and the fans are pressuring the team to play more offensive minded football. This team can score when they put their minds to it as evidenced by the fact the scored 3 at Napoli

Verona is very offensively motivated. That has caused them to be a little porous at the back and they have conceded an average of over 2 goals per game on the road. Over 2.5 goals has cashed in 6 of their 8 road games this season with 4 of those 6 games going over 3.5 goals.  They are 12-5 "over" in their 17 games this campaign. They are tied for the second most goals allowed on the road but they are also the 6th highest scoring team in the league.  They are second behind Inter for highest scoring games this season.

Lazio v Inter over 2.5 -107

Internazionale have averaged the highest scoring games in Serie a this campaign and it should be no surprise given their new found interest in playing attack minded football.  They are second only to Juventus in the league for goals scored with 37 goals in 17 matches played. They have allowed an average of just over a goal per game. However, of greater importance is that they are the top scoring team on the road after 9 games played.  They have netted 21 goals in 8 games with their away matches averaging 3.88 combined goals per game.

Lazio have averaged 2.75 combined goals per game in their 8 home matches and know that they must be weary of a fantastic Inter attack.

5 of the last 6 head to head meetings between these two clubs have seen over 2.5 goals and given the recent form of these teams, I think this game gets to 3 total goals as well.  We already know Inter's prolific goal numbers noted above but as for Lazio, they have scored 2 or more goals in 6 of their 8 home games.  They can and should score on Inter but at the same time, Inter is not likely to miss many of their chances either.

fever
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Soccer / MONDAY SOCCER / View Post

Hi guys .. miss you all.  Been solely focussing on posting my plays on twitter because I haven't had the time to write up the games as I like to do.

These are the plays I tweeted out last night…. I finally had some time to provide analysis so you can make your own minds up.  These are abbreviated write ups.  All plays 2 units

Napoli Team total over 2 -122

Napoli has scored 2 or more goals in 7 of their 9 home matches this season and went into the holiday break on the heels of two high scoring home matches in which they scored 4 goals on Inter and 3 goals on Udinese.  Looking at the entire season, they have netted 2 or more goals in 12 of their 17 games including 6 of their last 9 (home/away) overall.

Sampdoria has allowed 2 or more goals in half their away matches this season.  . With a well-rested squad at Benitez's disposal and with Roma losing on Sunday, expect Napoli to go all out for the win here and beat an improved, but still vulnerable Sampdoria defense.

Sampdoria has allowed 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 10 road games vs top 6 opposition including 3 of their last 4 in that situation.  Draws won't help their cause knowing that Napoli is going to go for the full 3 and have done well in killing off games this season.

AC Milan v Atalanta over 2.5 -110

Milan has had plenty of time to recovery from a poor first half of the season that has them 13th in the table and at risk of an actual relegation battle unless they start winning.  Milan cannot afford to slip up anymore and must force the issue and seek the maximum 3 points from their upcoming games and there is no better time to start than right now with a fully rested squad after the holiday break.   However, one of Milan's deficiencies this season has been the propensity to allow goals on set pieces and in general, to allow goals.  Milan has allowed the 7th most amount of goals in Serie A (26) after 17 matches.  Atlanta is just behind them with 25 goals allowed after 17 matches.

Milan have conceded in all but 2 of their 8 home matches this season and Atalanta has only 1 away clean sheet in 9 road matches played. I do expect both teams to find the back of the net but I also forecast that Milan should win this game.  However, I don't like the price on either the btts market or the Milan win market and I am not confident in playing the asian handicap on Milan until they prove they can get hot.  So, with all things considered, I have turned to the goals market and the over 2.5 which in my view has a reasonable chance of cashing given that Atalanta is only 4 points from the drop zone and Milan is not too far away either.  A draw does neither team any good here and both should open up their play to seek out the all-important win.

Milan's manager Allegri has announced he will step down at the end of the season.  This should alleviate a lot of the pressure on the sidelines but at the same time, leaves me wondering what his game plans will be given this decision in light of his foggy game planning so far this season.  This usually leads to goals against.  In any event, both teams need the points and I expect open play.

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Quote Originally Posted by LAGameofInches:

that's awesome analysis. not sure where you get all of those stats but couldn't be more useful.  you have sold me sir.

Variety of sites and I subscribe to a searchable database that costs me about 150 per month.

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