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LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper

I like the adjustments Pop made in game 2 adding Rudy to the starting 5 and providing more length to the team. They had a big lead in the first half but folded in the third. Yes GS is way more athletic and over 4 quarters will be the better team, but the Spurs went 4/28 from 3 point land in the game which was their worst shooting output of the year. At the same time, GS shot 52% from the field, 48% from three, and 95% from the line. Spurs will shoot far better here at home, while GS’s numbers will regress slightly. San Antonio teams never quit, and I expect this to be their best performance of the series.

  • Heat +3 ($750)
  • Pelicans -3.5 ($500)
  • Spurs +4 ($750)
  • Spurs +9 / Bucks -1 ($750)

Two big plays coming up

LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Jazz +5 game 2 ($1,500)

Paul George, Abrines, and Corey Brewer combined for 56 points. Very tough to replicate that amount of scoring with those 3. Jazz played well, OKC just hit shots. This line will go down

Jazz +4.5 ($1,000) - additional
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Quote Originally Posted by bluejayMBA:

What options does Pop have outside of starting Rudy happy and incresaing his minutes? The Spurs just don't have the depth or athletism to match up with GSW in any way, shape, or form. 

GSW is longer, more athletic, better TS%, better defensively, I really don't know any statistical categories where the Spurs are superior. Starting the longer Javale Mcgee is a nightmare for Lamarcus Aldridge who was held to 14 points, with the majority of those points coming outside of the paint.

I'm going heavy GSW -9.5 on Monday.

BOL


McGee is a matchup nightmare for Aldridge? Lol. Aldridge scored 14 points cuz he only played 24 minutes. Warriors aren't going to blowout every team without Curry in the lineup
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:


LC, is this really you? Don't you recall how when the Grizz were about to take out OKC a few years ago Randolph was suspended on some bogus call?! Come on, man. You really think the NBA is going to allow three of its biggest stars not to get through to the next round so we can see Snyder coach-up a bunch of nobodies against the Rockets? Are you high old buddy old pal? 

OKC ain't winnin this series. Jazz win game 2 if Mitchell plays, have a chance even if he doesn't
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Quote Originally Posted by Titusblink:

LC standing up when it counts most - the second season... Get it stud!

Auto-tailing at 25% your exposure just cause it feels good 



LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Jazz +5 game 2 ($1,500)

Paul George, Abrines, and Corey Brewer combined for 56 points. Very tough to replicate that amount of scoring with those 3. Jazz played well, OKC just hit shots. This line will go down

Line down to +3.5. OKC played a perfect game, Snyder will make adjustments
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Jazz +5 game 2 ($1,500)

Paul George, Abrines, and Corey Brewer combined for 56 points. Very tough to replicate that amount of scoring with those 3. Jazz played well, OKC just hit shots. This line will go down
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Adding:

Jazz +4.5 game 1 ($750)
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Quote Originally Posted by Windy8899:


Everything you said is correct BUT you forgot that this is a fixed league with all the scam zebras. They control the outcome of the game. Just some intentional calls can change the outcome of the game or to make sure that certain team will cover the spread. 

LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
I don't play 2nd halves much but I like this one.

Pacers +10.5 ($500)
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Spurs teams never quit, and Papavich will make the necessary adjustments. Game 1 means nothing
  • Spurs +10  ($1,500)
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Quote Originally Posted by simple3:

What about OKC's offense since Roberson went down? You gotta tell both sides of the story. They're a net negative without Roberson but their offensive rating has improved 2 points (defense -4) so net -2.

The thing is though, who are they performing against? OKC is 26-23 vs above .500 teams and just 22-11 against under .500 teams. Jazz are 26-26 vs .500 and 22-8 vs under .500 teams.

Now I don't know when these games were so you'd have to really analyse the schedule which is helluva lot of work.

Also OKC is 11-4 vs teams ranked 1-5  and 3-11 vs teams ranked 6-10. What does this tell you? They only get up for big games? Or did they play most of these 1-5 teams before Roberson went down and both of the 6-10 teams after? I don't know, using teamrankings if anyone else wants to have a look by the way.


Jazz are also 14-5 SU against teams with a better than .500 win percentage since Rudy Gobert fully returned to the lineup midseason. They were an underdog in 8 of those games as well. 

Outside of Westbrook and George who do the Thunder have? Guys like Jerami Grant, Raymond Felton, Corey Brewer, Abrines. 

Snyder will easily outcoach Donavan in this matchup

LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Yepper..........................

Melo is a shadow of himself. Player Efficiency Rating is 12.7, league ave is 15. His career ave is over 20.  He is shooting a dreadful 43.7% on 2 pointers and OKC ranks 18th in off FG%.

OKC ranks no. 1 in off rebs, no wonder, they miss so many shots and have loads of off rebs available to them.

Getting more off rebs has correlation to losing the game. 
Shooting a better FG % has high correlation to winning the game.



LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
1 win down, 11 to go
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:


Geezer is right on here, LC. After the league allowed Utah to advance past the Clippers last year, you saw the ratings disaster that followed. No way in hell will the NBA keep us from seeing the OKC/Rockets. Zero chance! OKC is the best bet here, and at a cheap price for what is almost a guaranteed lock. It might go 6, it might even go 7, but no way we get Utah in the second round again. No way. 

NBA doesn't determine who advances, players do.
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Quote Originally Posted by Jailbait7127:

hey LC, you still on 5d? if so the line is +120 over there! gl 

Yeah misplayed that, should have realized the line would go up as OKC is the more public of the two teams. Locked my bet in already though but still love it despite the bad line.

OKC is fav team, Westbrook struggles against teams with good centers. He plays around the rim more than any PG in the league. Wonder what his o/u is in points I would definitely lean under
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper

Raptors will never have a better chance to win the East than this year. 

The Celtics are without Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving. The Sixers have 0 playoff experience. The Bucks don’t have a coach. And this is the worst the Cavs have been since Lebron returned, while still incorporating new players on the team. 

Everything has clicked for Toronto so far, they’ve had very little injuries and will have homecourt throughout the East, have the experience, and have been together for years. They will beat Washington quite easily, then face the Cavs in the real Eastern finals, before getting an easy opponent in the East finals. This is Toronto’s year to get to the finals.

  • Toronto to win the East +160 ($2,000)

LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper

OKC beat the Jazz 3 out of 4 times this year including twice by double digits. Much will be different in this series however.

All 4 of those matchups were prior to December 23rd, when the Jazz started just 15-19 (44%) on the year. Since then, the team has improved mightily going 33-15 (69%). The Jazz have obviously gotten better, but what about OKC? 

Andre Roberson is one of the better defenders in the league, and his season ending injury has been huge. Prior to his departure, OKC was a top 4 defense in the league holding opponents to 101 points per game. Since he left, they are giving up 108 points per game. A 7 point difference for one player. In those 4 matchups against Utah, Andre Roberson was a cumulative +59 on the court. A lot more that I like about the Jazz in this matchup but I’ll keep it brief, Thunder play too much iso ball to beat this defense over 7 games.

  • Utah Jazz Series Win +105 ($3,000)

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