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Thread Author KempDunkLister Post Entries
KempDunkLister
KempDunkLister

Oh links didn't work in first post but go to noextrapoints dot com and NFL reference.

KempDunkLister
KempDunkLister

Oh I didn't write the % down - AAF games are 65.6% garbage.

Hey but it's something to bet on!

win

KempDunkLister
KempDunkLister

 

Any game where both teams did not score at least 16 points a piece, and any game where the final score was a 14 point margin or greater, I consider garbage. Let's see how many games fit the criteria for garbage.

Thru 8 weeks, 32 games, 11 out of 32 games have fit the criteria of both team scoring 16+ points, with the margin of victory being less than 14 points.

There were 2 other games that almost fit the criteria, a 23-15 game, and a 19-15 game, but even if I included those games, you're still looking at 13 games out of 32 having some scoring and being somewhat close.

By comparion, for Weeks 1 and 2 of the 2018 NFL season, also 32 games total, the number of games where both teams scored 16+ points and the margin was less than 14 points:

21 out of 32.

Some of you might love defensive slugfests, I do not, I think most viewers do not.

I think this is why this league might fail.

Cut and paste to see for yourself.

 

 

 

SarasotaSlim
SarasotaSlim

Quote Originally Posted by KempDunkLister:

Quote Originally Posted by Grothar:

Kemp, we need the picks man
I'm betting on: -3 Salt Lake -6 Birmingham +1.5 Arizona Don't feel terribly confident on any of them but that's my lean.

2-0

Let's go Hotshots.

KempDunkLister
KempDunkLister

Drummond goal tending on a 3 pointer, what a joke.

KempDunkLister
KempDunkLister

Gonna lose both bets, had a live bet 183.5 and Portland as a pick em on the moneyline live and both going down in flames. Portland doing college BS fouling down 10 with under a minute to play.

Sick,

SarasotaSlim
SarasotaSlim

Quote Originally Posted by Grothar:

Kemp, we need the picks man

I'm betting on:

-3 Salt Lake

-6 Birmingham

+1.5 Arizona

Don't feel terribly confident on any of them but that's my lean.

KempDunkLister
KempDunkLister

Without Griffin the Pistons can't score at all.

Currently 19% FGs, 0-11 on 3s. 

 

KempDunkLister
KempDunkLister

So you don't have the balls to make an obvious 5 second call on the inbound pass, but you have the balls to call a foul on a 3 pointer?

GG zebras.

KempDunkLister
KempDunkLister

I should have my head examined for picking these teams at all and not hedging huge middles when they were getting 20+ points live.

Live and learn eh brothers.

Better luck tomorrow.

Sure as hell not betting on any of these pansy "load management" teams anymore.

None of the Toronto starters played more than about 20 minutes and that is after Lamb's halfcourt shot the other night and they almost let the Bulls back in it at the end. The Bulls trotting out a bunch of G-Leaguers literally their whole team was injured.

KC32
KC32
NBA Betting / Portland / View Post

Yeah a high % of the public and team $ leaders were on Portland so I decided to leave that one alone. Sometimes it's the bets you don't make. Team isn't the same without McCollum.

KempDunkLister
KempDunkLister

Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:

Who?  Reggie Bullock...

Hey! He's a starter! new_laugh_cry

KempDunkLister
KempDunkLister

One less body for the Lakers in addition to Josh Hart and all the other guys that are out for the season.

Harry Giles is out for the Kings, and the starters played heavy minutes last night versus the Suns, but I do not get why the spread has been pounded down from -3.5 Kings to -1.

Kings have a longshot at the playoffs, Lakers with plenty of tanking incentive. LeBron is listed as probable with a left knee contusion, and even with Javale McGee going off for 33 points, 20 rebounds and 6 blocks Friday night at home versus the Nets they still lost 111-106.

Feels like a trap but Lakers are 1-9 ATS and 1-9 SU in their last 10.

What to do?

smacksmiter
smacksmiter

Murray State only has one chubby kid to keep all of that FSU length off the offensive glass. That didn't work out well in the 1st half.

KempDunkLister
KempDunkLister

Just bet all the dogs I guess. 9-7 yesterday, 3-1 for final scores today, looks like Colgate and Gardner-Webb will make dogs 5-1 to start the day.

KempDunkLister
KempDunkLister

10 points, 6 turnovers, 0 assists, 0 3 pointers, 0 FT attempts.

Down 17-10.

MLdogs
MLdogs

I think these teams have a decent risk/reward of the big money line dogs:

 

Northern Kentucky +710 vs Texas Tech

Georgia State +600 vs Houston

Saint Louis +460 vs Virginia Tech

 

Houston and Texas Tech are 3 seeds, and Virginia Tech is a 4 seed. Kansas State is also a 4 seed vs UC Irvine, but since Kansas State has injury issues that wouldn't even be a major upset, right now the spread on that game has K State favored -4.5. UC Irvine is only +170 on the ML.

 

After Thursday 3 seeds are 2-0 and 4 seeds are 2-0. The 2 seeds are 3-0 and the Tennessee looks safe vs Colgate. The 3 remaining 1 seeds have cake walks.

 

My guess is 1 of those 3 seeds is going to go bracket buster, I mean it has to happen right? It happens every year. Put a unit each on those 3 and I'm guessing you'll do alright.

 

KempDunkLister
KempDunkLister

Didn't cut and paste the first two games, here is the full correct list from Thursday:

 

Minn 12.8

Lville 18.5

Fair -6 Lville

Actual -5.5 Lville

Result Minn 86, Lville 76

Fav 0, Dog 1

 

Yale 5.6

LSU 17.2

Fair -11.5 LSU

Acutal -7.5 LSU

Result LSU 79, Yale 74

Fav 0, Dog 2

 

NM State 10.0

Auburn 20.3

Fair -10.5 Auburn

Acutal -6 Auburn

Result Auburn 78, NM State 77

Fav 0, Dog 3

 

Vermont 5.0

FSU 18.4

Fair -13.5 FSU

Acutal -8.5 FSU

Result FSU 76, Vermont 69

Fav 0, Dog 4

 

Bradley 4.5

Mich St 25.6

Fair -21 Mich St

Actual -17.5 Mich St

Result Mich St 76, Bradley 65

Fav 0, Dog 5

 

Belmont 9.0

Maryland 16.7

Fair -8 Marland

Actual -3.5 Marland

Result Maryland 79, Belmont 77

Fav 0, Dog 6

 

Northeastern 4.9

Kansas 18.1

Fair -13 Kansas

Actual -7 Kansas

Result Kansas 87, Northeastern 53

Fav 1, Dog 6

 

Murray St 8.8

Marquette 16.2

Fair Marquette -7

Actual Marquette -3

Result Murray St 83, Marquette 64

Fav 1, Dog 7

 

Florida 15.7

Nevada 16.6

Fair -1 Nevada

Actual -3 Nevada

Result Florida 70, Nevada 61

Fav 1, Dog 8

 

Abilene C -1.4

Kentucky 21.7

Fair -23 Kentucky

Actual -20 Kentucky

Result Kentucky 79, Abilene C 44

Fav 2, Dog 8

 

St Mary's 12.9

Villanova 15.4

Fair -2.5 Villanova

Actual -3.5 Villanova

Result Villanova 61, St Mary's 57

Fav 3, Dog 8

 

F-Dickinson -5.6

Gonzaga 28.2

Fair -34 Gonzaga

Actual -28.5 Gonzaga

Result Gonzaga 87, F-Dickinson 49

Fav 4, Dog 8

 

Montana 1.5

Michigan 22.7

Fair -21 Michigan

Actual -15 Michigan

Result Michigan 74, Montana 55

Fav 5, Dog 8

 

Seton Hall 11.3

Wofford 13.7

Fair -2.5 Wofford

Actual -3.5 Wofford

Result Wofford 84, Seton Hall 68

Fav 6, Dog 8

 

Old Dominion 3.9

Purdue 21.3

Fair -17.5 Purdue

Actual -12.5 Purdue

Result Purdue 61, Old Dominion 48

Fav 7, Dog 8

 

Baylor 12.8

Syracuse 14.6

Fair -2 Syracuse

Actual -2.5 Syracuse

Result Baylor 78, Syracuse 69

Fav 7, Dog 9

 

KempDunkLister
KempDunkLister

Quote Originally Posted by QuanDon:

Would love to have seen the numbers for Thurs.

Well the dogs went 9-7 ATS on Thursday. If the SRS point spread was used instead of the actual point spread, Purdue and Michigan would not have covered, and the dogs would have gone 11-5. So SRS is fairly accurate compared to the real point spread a lot of the time, but you also have to read between the lines for trends, injuries and match ups.

 

NM State 10.0

Auburn 20.3

Fair -10.5 Auburn

Acutal -6 Auburn

Result Auburn 78, NM State 77

Fav 0, Dog 3

 

Vermont 5.0

FSU 18.4

Fair -13.5 FSU

Acutal -8.5 FSU

Result FSU 76, Vermont 69

Fav 0, Dog 4

 

Bradley 4.5

Mich St 25.6

Fair -21 Mich St

Actual -17.5 Mich St

Result Mich St 76, Bradley 65

Fav 0, Dog 5

 

Belmont 9.0

Maryland 16.7

Fair -8 Marland

Actual -3.5 Marland

Result Maryland 79, Belmont 77

Fav 0, Dog 6

 

Northeastern 4.9

Kansas 18.1

Fair -13 Kansas

Actual -7 Kansas

Result Kansas 87, Northeastern 53

Fav 1, Dog 6

 

Murray St 8.8

Marquette 16.2

Fair Marquette -7

Actual Marquette -3

Result Murray St 83, Marquette 64

Fav 1, Dog 7

 

Florida 15.7

Nevada 16.6

Fair -1 Nevada

Actual -3 Nevada

Result Florida 70, Nevada 61

Fav 1, Dog 8

 

Abilene C -1.4

Kentucky 21.7

Fair -23 Kentucky

Actual -20 Kentucky

Result Kentucky 79, Abilene C 44

Fav 2, Dog 8

 

St Mary's 12.9

Villanova 15.4

Fair -2.5 Villanova

Actual -3.5 Villanova

Result Villanova 61, St Mary's 57

Fav 3, Dog 8

 

F-Dickinson -5.6

Gonzaga 28.2

Fair -34 Gonzaga

Actual -28.5 Gonzaga

Result Gonzaga 87, F-Dickinson 49

Fav 4, Dog 8

 

Montana 1.5

Michigan 22.7

Fair -21 Michigan

Actual -15 Michigan

Result Michigan 74, Montana 55

Fav 5, Dog 8

 

Seton Hall 11.3

Wofford 13.7

Fair -2.5 Wofford

Actual -3.5 Wofford

Result Wofford 84, Seton Hall 68

Fav 6, Dog 8

 

Old Dominion 3.9

Purdue 21.3

Fair -17.5 Purdue

Actual -12.5 Purdue

Result Purdue 61, Old Dominion 48

Fav 7, Dog 8

 

Baylor 12.8

Syracuse 14.6

Fair -2 Syracuse

Actual -2.5 Syracuse

Result Baylor 78, Syracuse 69

Fav 7, Dog 9

 

KempDunkLister
KempDunkLister

Quote Originally Posted by QuanDon:

Would love to have seen the numbers for Thurs.

It'll take a bit of work but I'm down. Will post a reply in a bit.

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