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Thread Author Unclebenelli Post Entries
HigherPlane
HigherPlane

Seattle it is!  Sorry bro but time has shown you just identified a winner for the board.  Or is it the other side of the parlay?

Getty3
Getty3
MLB Betting / Rays Play / View Post

Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:

Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Nice call. Homer pitched like he was on your personal payroll.
They showed great plate discipline, taking 4 walks in under 2 innings and 2 of them scored runs. Thanks Key.

and did you handicap in Wendal, and Zunino?  Knowing the young gun was coming in behind Stanek,.... do I know u?....

Getty3
Getty3
MLB Betting / Rays Play / View Post

Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:

3-2 +147. How stupid is Ned Yost? Well last night he sent LH Lucas Duda up to pinch hit for Hunter Dozier against submarining left hander Adam Kolarek in the 8th inning. Kolarek's only job is to get out lefties and Yost knowingly sends DooDoo out there who expectedly struck out. The game ML tonite is pricy, but I can get the Rays 1st 5 -0.5 @ (120) so that's what I'll do. I get TB's 2 best bullpen guys (Stanek and Beeks) against Uncle Homer Bailey. With the Royals falling off the rails of the train, I like it.  Other games to bet as you see fit: Baltimore +130 because everyone will play the Chisox in a toss up game Seattle +115 because the young Lithuanian has had 2 of his 4 starts against the Little League Giants and will finally face a team of hardball rakers. LAA +100 Because the Yankee jet lag and fatigue settles in tonite. These are all very good plays and you'd be wise to consider them even if you don't like me.

facinated that you handicapped the same angles as myself, or should I say same logic/experience.   Who did you play for or how long you been playing.cheers and refreshing!an_cheers

RoboCapper
RoboCapper

Quote Originally Posted by haymo:

Wtf happened I followed and you f’n lose every game !!!!! darn me and my luck

 

Baseball is a 9 inning game.  People make fun of Yogi Berra, as he was a dumb sh..it.  But, he was smart enough to know, it ain’t over till it’s over.

interesting that some of the most stupid people I have met, are extremely smart.

pipedoctor
pipedoctor

Quote Originally Posted by pipedoctor:

...adding nationals/colorado over 11 -105

never a bad play!

Unclebenelli
Unclebenelli

Quote Originally Posted by TheSquare:

Ahh.. You must be from "the island.."

 

Beaches of SoCal, but have spent some time in the islands.

Unclebenelli
Unclebenelli

   Not something I normally do, but what the heck that’s what the board ultimately wants.... 

Several games fall into a particular belief.   Pirates, Orioles, and Brewers all took double digit thumping last night, and it’s not uncommon for teams to bounce back in those type situations, so all three are a pick.

Tampa had to side step the offensive opener yesterday, and gave chilinos the start.  Tampa is not getting starters deep enough in games which is why we see a defensive opener tonight. Unplanned rotation with Snell out, and my guess is the young gun from double Aa will be coming in behind Stanek,  can’t trust what happens after the first, and for that reason, I will take the over in Tampa game.

Hoping that the west coast travel, and major injury bug (Boone is a players guy and didn’t apparently require physical fitness) and a 14 inning game zaps a little life out of the pinstripes.  Angles are the pick.

Finally and a little skeptical with the offensive production, but the Cubs with Quintana provides a great chance to get the first W in this series with the Dodgers coming out of a taxing series with Brews.

 

Pirates -108

Brewers +107

Cubs  -113

Tampa over 8 -120

Angles  -102

 

No chalk here Martha, good luck and,

hang loose

 

daebaknaja
daebaknaja

Quote Originally Posted by daebaknaja:

nice spine, and good play!

Morrissey
Morrissey
MLB Betting / Sunday / View Post
With ya,   Final play on 5 teamer.   Gl
Unclebenelli
Unclebenelli

[Quote: Originally Posted by smacksmiter]I dearly hope it is not just me who is having comprehension problems with much of your post...The pitcher/catcher familiarity angle rings true, as Houston says...But much of the rest of it I am just having trouble grasping effectively..

.apologize that I do not write better.  I should take the time to break things down more.  Maybe in the future I will put out a few picks with short reasoning why. Being a long time ball player, I get superstitious about telling people my picks, as this is the time of year I make my bread.   

When I keep it to how I think the game will go, I feel less pressure.

sorry for the crappy literacy 

barneybeans
barneybeans
MLB Betting / MLB SUN 4/21 / View Post

Quote Originally Posted by BarneysDad:

Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:

It was one of u two Barney’s that made comments back to me that Kershaw was sound, I was crazy and that he would hit 94 on his fastball.  Um yea.  Kershaw doesn’t have his cozy slotted spot at home against Cincinnati this time, and I expect he struggles. Brewers a good play,  over 3.5 brewers not a bad option either.I will search back on the thread to see who it was that made the comment,But it was that you didn’t care what the scouts said about Kershaw they were wrong you were right.   Scouts don’t get paid to be wrong.
It was me D-BAG  Remember that Pederson walk off HR that won my Kershaw -156 bet

yep, and also remember your uneducated comments about Kershaw.   How was that 94.  You know when Puig hit theta bomb your butt bit the chair.   Lol.   

barneybeans
barneybeans
MLB Betting / MLB SUN 4/21 / View Post
It was one of u two Barney’s that made comments back to me that Kershaw was sound, I was crazy and that he would hit 94 on his fastball.  Um yea.  Kershaw doesn’t have his cozy slotted spot at home against Cincinnati this time, and I expect he struggles. Brewers a good play,  over 3.5 brewers not a bad option either.

I will search back on the thread to see who it was that made the comment,
But it was that you didn’t care what the scouts said about Kershaw they were wrong you were right.   Scouts don’t get paid to be wrong.
Unclebenelli
Unclebenelli

Quote Originally Posted by barneybeans:

Quote Originally Posted by Rolexwrist:

anyone else making heads or tails out of this? lol 
yapping a lot of crap - reminds me of a capper who keeps coming back and back and back.

 

not sure I understand your comment nor the intent. Maybe it’s over your head?  You can lead a person to culture, but you can’t make her think!

 

Unclebenelli
Unclebenelli
Finally , to help understand better with rotations and how they affect blocks of games, let’s just say 10 for easy tracking.  There is a reason the great teams never achieve 70% win stats in baseball.  If one uses simple probability as we roll through the season, follow teams that clip 20 out of 23 or so, just one hell of a streak.  At some point statistically they must drop some games. It is statistically proven. So just how does this happen. Well short look into Tampa.  They picked up a huuuuuuge win in Chicago on their first road trip. A long one, east to west with a quick turnaround from San Fran to Chicago Sunday night, with early start Monday home opener for Sox’s.  Brutal.!,,  they won. This allowed them to string their rotation together and clip what, 8 or 9 out of 10.  Well snell goes down. Call up from AA doesn’t bridge gap, forced into defensive opener game, and lose, and then your #2 can’t stop the slide. Boom 3 game losing streak. If Glasnow can’t stop the slide today, the whole responsibility falls on Tampa’s Opener theory.  Which so far they are proving that it works.  Look you have your farm product here at home to keep you square, and if he fails it will fall onto your whole theory and why you have it in place.  This gives Tampa 3 opportunities to stop what naturally occurs in Baseball. Through analytics Tampa is trying to switch the probabilities. Yesterday failed, today they have odds in Favor and chance #2, and tomorrow they have their philosophy for chance # 3.  According to their Data either today or tomorrow has to work, in order to change loss probability.

Hang loose
Unclebenelli
Unclebenelli
The other side of the coin.  Here we talk about rotations do to managers decision.  Take a look at innings logged by Boston. Shewwe, from their home stand weekend and Patriots day pressure to current road trip, Boston squeezed out some much needed wins, but also find themselves, with their pants down and need innings and several. Quality starts to get squared up.  Bullpen has done their job of recent (all that matters, and should be looked at as a tool) but problem is they have done all the job. (Check Boston start pitch stats).  So Cora has to have his skinny I hope it’s my ace for now Price, and you got the ball man.  Can he do it, absolutely.  Love that this is a key divisional matchup,,  I would go small on Tampa here at home as a % play.  I like the team thought rather than the whole boat on a pitcher.  Tampa will be a better ply tomorrow with mentioned opener role going and most likely with  Chirinos in behind. Won’t get the best price, but better because Vegas doesn’t have good value stats yet on Opener role.    You will see I mentioned,  offensive opener  and. Defensive opener.  Two totally different approaches within the same approach.  Check last two scenarios for Tampa to understand what I am saying.  They use it planned,  and unplanned.  Tomorrow, should be planned. We will see, what they up to as they maneuver quickly between series. Check roster moves, amazing and one can learn a lot.  Final note, Zunino is still out for Rays,  offensive production from Perez has been better, but doesn’t handle pitchers as well,  .   Small play Tampa.  
Unclebenelli
Unclebenelli
Ok,  first. Always remember baseball is a game of failure, spend time looking for those set up to fail, more so than looking to see who will do well.

Very interesting spot here for Tampa and their young gun Glasnow. Well G it’s Now for Glasnow.  The Rays know he can be there # 2 but chose to pick up a smart pitcher in Morton, and yesterday was his day to pay dividends early in the season and wasn’t able to get it done.  (Note I mentioned the catcher issue, which I believe bit them in the first inning for a 5 spot. Once the two settle in, he finished 6 unblemished. Remember Morton comes in new and this was his first acquaintance with the back up). So here he has his chance to show he is the guy and can keep Tampa right sized, heading into their game plan for the opener (offensive- their choice). They are set up as they stuck to the plan yesterday and simply got beat.  Look at box score to understand. 3 pitchers.   Boston on the other hand, spent their bullets in an attempt two win two and it worked. However, set up and closer will be on the shelf today, or will get lit up. So Tampa has it in their court, serious advantage at home, and trying to avoid the broom. If they are good, and I believe they are, and their unique data driven approach works, which I believe it makes a lot of sense. Then Glasnow has to step up and give a quality start.  This is a game that separates good from average, and we will see what Tampa has today.  Next I will give fly in ointment and why any big wager is not smart on this game
Unclebenelli
Unclebenelli
I will use the Tampa bay Rays as an example for today’s game.   

Will finalize research and give analysis shortly.   Have Easter eggs to find first,   (Grand kids)

Unclebenelli
Unclebenelli
It’s a lot to type, I must suggest to go back and look at past posts. I don’t make many threads so they should be easy to find.

So, do this. Go back and look at box score for Marquez last start, it was at home and against Philly.   If you go to his start previous to that. It was a do or die game for Co.  this is when a manager must have an ace.  The pen is shot, we have lost 8 or 9 in a row.   If you notice his ace struggled 3 back which is why the slide continues.     Now fast forward to his last start, and he struggled.  Even though Bud Black got the win, he had to burn his pen to get it. What happens sat night?  Now his rotation is shot again, and he has to borrow from peter to pay Paul until he can right size the rotation again. 3 games usually.  Same deal with Tampa.  Notice when they use the opener role offensively, they are 2-0.  When using opener defensively, 0-1.   I have spent nearly 100 thousand innings in a bullpen.  ROATATION alignment and bullpen availability dictates a great deal of fate.  This is why earl weaver loved the 3 run dinger.
RoboCapper
RoboCapper

Quote Originally Posted by RoboCapper:

Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:

I feel sorry for you... your level of ignorance is alarming to me. interesting tell me more.  First time I have been accused of ignorance with baseball.  Careful with your critisicism, I understand this game at a intamete and professional level.  
Only an ignorant man judges someone without knowing him or makes assumptions without knowing facts...1. You don't know me yet passed judgement2. You assume my systems are "worthless" without even knowing what they are or their success rates.This makes you an ignorant human and this is why I feel sorry for you... and the arrogance you convey only reinforces just how ignorant you really are.

perfect, well best of luck to ya and your systems.  Thanks for posting.  Happy Easter.

RoboCapper
RoboCapper

Quote Originally Posted by RoboCapper:

Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:

If you had Oakland.  You are using bad systems.  You can make any reflective comment you want but, several of your picks are defenseless.  Honestly, Tampa is a great example.  Horibble spot to play.   Get rid of your system, and learn the game of baseball.Happy easter
I feel sorry for you... your level of ignorance is alarming to me.

interesting tell me more.  First time I have been accused of ignorance with baseball.  Careful with your critisicism, I understand this game at a intamete and professional level.

 

 

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