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Horst-Meinders
Horst-Meinders

Spence is 24-0 with 21 KO’s.  He is talented southpaw and he is the puncher in the fight. While Spence is a top rated fighter, I don't think he's in an elite status (like everyone else.) Why do I say that? When he gets in a fight that he considers to be "big" he starts out way to anxious.  It cost him the fight in the Olympics (he should have never lost that fight) and he was down big after five rounds against Kell Brook.  He even lost a wide decision to Brian Carlos Castano in the unpaid ranks.  He has a weird habit of dropping his head to the right when he throws the jab making him vulnerable to right hand counters. Spence is indeed fast with a thudding jab, but is he any faster than Adrien Broner? (who did not lay a glove on Garcia.)  He’s beaten up good-quality fighters. Spence is an excellent body puncher and he has world-class hand speed.

Garcia is 39 – 0 with 30 KO’s. With Garcia, it’s “all in the eyes” as he has an excellent level of concentration.  He constantly looks to punish to the body and or counter. Garcia is a fundamentally sound technician, solid in all areas. He can box and punch, he is precise, he jabs effectively and he lets his hands go impressively in combinations. He’s lost very few rounds in his professional career.

 

Prediction:

By fight time, Spence will have a significant weight advantage (as much as 15 pounds) and will tower over the 5’6” Garcia. Spence also has a big power advantage and while Garcia is a good puncher at 135 and even 140 pounds I’m not sure he has the firing power to affect Spence seriously with his shots.  That being said, this is a competitive fight and expect both to fight patiently during the first half. I’m betting the fight goes over 9.5 rounds at --160 odds.  Call me crazy but I also took a shot on Garcia to win.  Spence starts slow and could be down by four points after five rounds. If Garcia wins three of the last six rounds, he can get the decision.  


Horst-Meinders
Horst-Meinders

Molina is 30-7 with 24 KO’s. He is 36 years old and has been KO’d 3 times himself.  This will be his first fight in more than a year and he’s at the end of the road.  He’s actually a real life “Rocky Balboa” as he takes two punches to give one back. He goes down frequently but gets back up.  Very slow of foot and has a weird habit of leaning his head to the right which gives him more leverage with the power in his right hand.  He will give all he has but does not have much left in the tank.  


Figueroa is 29 years old and 27-0-1.  He has 19 KO’s and has faced decent level of competition.  He is a “cave man”  as a fighter.  He constantly moves forward and prefers to put his head on an opponent's chest and wail away to the body and head.  He’s a high volume puncher with excellent head movement and a good uppercut. If an opponent is able to stay on the outside, he absorbs jabs and could easily lose by wide decision.


Prediction:  Pop some popcorn and sit back to is exciting blood filled brawl.  Molina always gives his all and each fighter only knows one way to fight, that's by brawling.  Molina will have a significant height advantage but tends to negate it  by leaning way over. This fight is like putting two betta fish in the same bowl… only one thing happens…their going to fight to the death.  Money has been showing on Molina, what, who’s betting on him?  Go with Molina probably be KO. 



Horst-Meinders
Horst-Meinders

Alvarez is 24-0 with only 12 KO’s.  He’s 34 years old with a lot of “tread still on still the tires”. He’s the consummate boxer with decent power.  He has quick hands and a very good jab as he times his punches well. He has good defense with head movement but little foot movement.  He has a very good chin, and seems to get energized when he catches a good shot.   Is vulnerable to a boxer with a strong right hand.  He's a bleeder as he has been cut 6 times under his left eye. 


Sergey is 32-2-1 with 28 KO’s and has been KO’d twice himself.  He has big power in both hands and likes to play the bully in the ring.  He has a high work rate and uses his power to wear down and take out his opponent. His problem is that he can only fight one way and at one speed.  When he gets hurt, he hasn't been trained to hold and or recover effectively.  He’s now 35 years old and doesn't have a lot of tread on the tires.  His chin is questionable and his “punch resistance” is diminished. When under heavy pressure, he now becomes unglued.      


Prediction:

Kovalev was well ahead in his first fight with Alvarez.  Two judges had him ahead by 4 points and one by 2 points.  In the 7th round, Kovalev was knocked down three times and significantly concussed. I actually thought the loss was the end of the road for Kovalev and he would retire.  I’m not sure why Kovalev is taking this fight; one last big payday or did his management team convince him that he was way ahead and that he can outbox Alvarez for 12 rounds?  I see this fight following a similar pattern: Kovalev does well early as he tries to bully and walk through Alvarez's power; Alvarez counterpunches and is cut under the left eye; Kovalev tires in the middle rounds and is caught and stopped.  Alvarez to win but if you like Kovalev take him by decision.  







Horst-Meinders
Horst-Meinders

Manny Pacquiao is 60–7-2's with 39 KO’s.  His best days are past him as he is no longer the fighter he was when he claimed 15 victories in a row from 2005 to 2011.  Pac-Man's last two fights were a controversial defeat to Jeff Horn and a knockout win against Lucas Matthysse.  His level of competition is excellent. Pac Man is a fresh 40-year-old and should still possess his lightning speed and explosiveness that was witnessed in his previous bouts.  Many is active, throws a lot of punches and moves side to side on to avoid punches. A very small welterweight that has lost his power as his last KO was in 2009 before the Matthysse win.

‘The Problem’ is naturally the bigger of the two with a slight height advantage and a notable reach gain of two inches. He is 33-3-1 with 24 KO’s. His three career defeats have been in the welterweight division, showing it is a class he struggles.  For a four-weight world champion, Broner is arguably one of the most underrated boxers around. The problem with “The Problem” is that he starts very slowly and loses rounds due to inactivity.  He is very powerful and dangerous particularly late in the fight.  Great defensive fighter with head movement and  quickness.  

Prediction:

Both fighters have struggled in their last ten bouts, with Broner suffering his defeats during his last nine outings while Pacquiao has recorded four of his overall seven losses. Both have fought Jessie Vargas in recent bouts at welterweight with Pac Man recording a convincing unanimous decision while ‘The Problem’ fought out a draw. I think Pac Man wins rounds by simply throwing more punches.  Broner’s chance is in his power and the possibility of a KO.  Pac Man won’t KO Broner so take Pac Man by decision at -120.   If you want to hedge the wager, take Broner by KO at +700.




Horst-Meinders
Horst-Meinders

Uzcategui is 28-2 with 23 KO’s.  In the his first loss, Matt Korobov beat him well, suffering two knockdowns.  Uzcategui was dominating the Dirrell fight,  but hit Dirrell after the bell and disqualified. In the rematch with Dirrell,  Uzcategui took care of business but surprisingly (to me) didn't stop Dirrell.    He is a rugged hunter with a big right hand and rarely takes a step backwards. He has no foot or side to side movement but sports a good chin.  He likes to play the bully in the ring but has trouble when up against a bigger bully.  The Korobov fight is a good example, Korobov went after him fire for fire and won the battle.  He does have a good chin but is not overly active in punches thrown.


Plant is 17-0 with 10 KO’s.  He’s  26 years old and a a safety-first fighter.  He’s faced weak opposition and he sticks to what he’s doing, which is scoring points and getting hit as little as possible in return.  He has very quick hands and great head movement and likes to pose and showboat.  He tends to lung in when he throws which leaves his head exposed to counters. He has very little foot movement, likes to “fight in the pocket” and vulnerable to be countered.


Plant’s plan will surely be to use speed and movement, hitting and getting out. Except he doesn't get out, he stands in the pocket and avoids punches with head movement. Plant will need to box the best fight of his career to beat Uzcategui.  Given Plants lack of foot movement, I don't think he will be able to escape Uzcategui for 12 rounds.  I think Plant starts fast builds up points but eventually Uzcategui stops Plant. If you like Plant to win, take him to win by decision.




Horst-Meinders
Horst-Meinders

Quote Originally Posted by smitt32:

I am waiting for a fight Usik - Joshua. What will be your prediction on this fight?

In general, cruiserweights fair well against heavyweights.  The smaller guy is usually the more skilled boxer.  While I really like Usyk, he starts slow in fights and has trouble against brawlers.  Breidis lost by MD to Usyk and that fight was very close. Bellew was  even with Usyk through 7 which really surprised me. Usyk is more skilled than Joshua, but Joshua is quick, powerful and a mountain of a man. Joshua starts fast and knocks Usyk down early. The fight is competitive throughout but Joshua KO's Usyk late.       

Horst-Meinders
Horst-Meinders

Rocky Fielding vs Saul Alvarez


Rocky is 27-1 with 15 KO’s.  He’s been knockout once himself in the first round of his fight with Callum Smith.  He’s a southpaw with quick hands.  He prefers to fight on the outside using his long reach to counter punch.  He throws “punches in bunches”  and goes to the body well.  He has a good right hand supported by a reasonable defensive skills. He’s had lots of early stoppages and tends to fade late in fights. He gives an honest effort each fight and I’ve heard him described as a “high class journeyman” and I would agree with that assessment.   


Saul Canelo Alvarez is 50-1-2 with 34 KO’s.  His lone loss was to Money Mayweather who totally dominated and confused Canelo.  Canelo is unique in that he fights differently depending on the opponent but a few key traits are present in every fight:  Iron chin, master counter puncher, very patient, excellent head movement on defense. Canelo is a ploder as he moves very little side to side. He use to have stamina problems late in fights,but lately it has greatly  improved. He has quick hands but not one punch KO power. 


This is Canelo’s first fight on the DAZN Network in which he sighed 5 year $365 Million contract. He just fought in September against teke-tough GGG a fight in which he suffered a deep cut over his eye.  I’m wondering if Canelo and his handlers considers the fight against Fielding to be more of a showcase than a competitive affair. And how hard he’s trained given the cut?  Fielding is receiving the biggest payday of his career and as I said will give a honest effort.  Look, Canelo will win the question is how.  Canelo is -1500 favorite so it doesn't make sense to bet on him to win. Canelo is somewhat laid back and prefers the counter punching style. He almost lets his opponent dictate the style of the fight.  If a fighter is aggressive and comes after Canelo, he plants his feet and fights back (see James Kirkland fight.) If the opponent is content to fight on the outside, Canelo will patiently counterpunch and build up points. Rocky is much bigger and fights at 168 pounds were Canelo is short in height and just started fighting at 160 pounds. Rocky has a 6 inch height advantage in this fight and will presumably outweigh Canelo by 10 or more pounds come fight time.  I think Rocky stays smart and fights on the outside so that it can go some rounds.   The over/under proposition is 7.5 rounds and I think the fight goes over.  If you want to try to catch a double, bet over 7.5 rounds and also Canelo by KO hoping the fight ends in rounds 8 through 12.




Horst-Meinders
Horst-Meinders

Ramirez is 38 - 0 with 25 KO’s.  He’s 27 years old and in the prime of his career.  Ramirez is a southpaw one rough dude, as he started his pro career as an 18 year old with three fights in the first month.  He has big power in each hand and does excellent work to the body.  His uppercut might be his most effective punch.  His jab is an afterthought and very inaccurate as he typically only lands 10% of them but he lands 38% of his power punches which is phenomenal. He has a granite chin with good head movement on defense. He applies effective pressure as he constantly works his way inside but can be hit on the way in.  He gives up his 6’2” height by leaning over and is susceptible to uppercuts.  He tends to be very patient which can cause him to lose rounds to active fighters.


Jessie Hart is 25-1 with 21 KO’s.  He is true to his “hard work” nickname in that he tries to out work his opponent at all times. Hart has good foot movement & balance and flicks out stinging jab. Hart has a good defense including head & foot movement to avoid punches. He has big power in his right hand and prefers to counter punch with his opponents. He fights effectively on the inside which includes a great uppercut. He tends to finish strong in fights and has excellent recuperative powers after getting hit hard. He does have this weird habit of locking out his front leg before he punches (normally you flex your knee when punching) and only throws one punch at a time.  


Prediction:

These two fought in 2017 and Ramirez won a close decision.  It was a really interesting fight in that Ramirez was clearly the harder puncher as Hart was down hard in the second and also in trouble again in the fifth.  In many of the rounds, Ramirez was way too patient and outworked by Hart.  Good thing Ramirez has cement in his chin as be was repeatedly hit with crushing upper cuts to no ill effect. I think the second fight is much the same as the first.  Hart outworks Ramirez but Gilberto’s power and ring savy does just enough to take the close decision.  I‘m taking Ramirez to win at -360. I think the odds will come in closer to fight time so wait and you can get better odds on Ramirez. If you want a good hedge to this bet, take Hart to win by decision (odds not posted yet, but I’m guessing at +600.)


.



Horst-Meinders
Horst-Meinders

Lomachenko is 11-1 with 9 KO’s.  He’s holds the record for winning three championships at different weights in the fewest number of fights (11). That after losing his 2nd pro fight to the Orlando Salido.  In his last fight against Jorge Linares, he was on the canvas in the 6th and down on one score card (tied on another) before stopping Linares in the tenth with a lethal shot to the liver. Lomo has the feet and balance of a “ballroom dancer” combined with a non stop punching engine.  He’s an offensive juggernaut with a laser right hand that looks to hurt his opponent to the body. The one guy in his armour is that he does not counter punch but instead he’s just an offensive machine.   In his only loss, Solido bullied him and roughed him up. So what type of fighter beats Lomo?  He must have a great chin, box from the outside and control the action with a stiff jab.  Lomo can be reckless and dropped but is Pedraza the one to stop this Ukrainian train?


Pedraza is 25-1 with 12 KO’s. In his only loss, he engaged in a firefight with Gervanta “Tank” Davis and lost the war and succumbed in the 7th round.   In his last fight, he took the belt from Ray Beltran by controlling the action with a quick jab and effective head movement.  He’s a southpaw that prefers to stay in midrange with his gloves held high moving his head to minimize punishment.   He prefers to move forward, hands held high pumping out the right hand jab.  He has a tendency to tire late in fights but held up well against Beltran.  I think one of his flaws is he too macho as he likes to move forward, but if his opponent moves forward he will stand his ground and engage (see Tank Davis fight.) Prediction:

If Pedraza studies Lomo, he knows the best course of action is to “be a Sniper” and stay on the outside constantly shuffling to his right and pumping jab after jab at Lomo. He should know that Lomo is not adept at counter punching and this is his best chance for success. It would be nice to catch a +2500 underdog bet, but sadly this won’t happen.  Pedraza likes to linger-mid range with gloves held high. Lomo is much to quick and clever for Pedraza. It's only a matter of time before Lomo rushes in and catches Pedraza with a body shot forcing Pedraza to go “Randy Poffo” on Lomo and engage in a firefight and before falling for good. (Did anyone get the Poffo reference?)  Expect Pedraza to be under heavy pressure throughout as I like Lomo to win inside the distance at -230 odds. I’m also betting the over 7.5 round prop at +150 and trying to catch a middle and win both bets (hoping the fight ends in rounds 8-12.)   



Horst-Meinders
Horst-Meinders

Quote Originally Posted by LRM704:

There is no dancing in a 20 foot ring. Wilder will knock him out within 8 rounds.

 

How much did you lose on that bet? 

Horst-Meinders
Horst-Meinders

Quote Originally Posted by wayofcalm:

Will you have a prediction for the stevenson vs gvozdyk fight?

Gvozdyk is good but a bit mechanical .  He's actually struggled and been down in a fight. I expected Stevenson to be a -200 favorite.  As Stevenson as a  +150 dog, I'm taking a shot on him.  

 

 

 

Horst-Meinders
Horst-Meinders

Horn is 30 years old with a record of 18-1 with 12 KO’s.  In his last fight, he was KO’d himself by pound for pound champ Terence Bud Crawford.  Horn is fit, aggressive and sets an extraordinary pace.  His defense is good as he has good head movement and darts in and out.  He is susceptible to cuts as he likes to brawl and often rushes in head first which can cause clashes of heads.  He’s reckless at times and can be caught with counter punching. He throws “punches in bunches”  and wins rounds with activity. 


Mundine is 43 and in the twilight of a sports career that started as a professional rugby player.  Frankly, as a fighter, Mundine is an enigma as he looked great in a few fights, good in others but awful in some. His competition is almost exclusively Australian based fighters.  His best win was against Daniel Geale in 2009 and once beat a faded Shane Mosley when he was about ten years past his prime. The 2006 version of Mundine was sleek and threw rapid combination of punches as he darted in and out kind of reminding me of a poor man’s Roy Jones Jr.  Today he’s sports a “straight rangefinder jab” and throws one maybe two punches at a time.  He stands straight-up with his hands held high with no foot movement.  He still has very quick hands but at times holds his left very low.  He does have a good upper cut with a sneaky quick right hand.  He has a questionable chin and can be roughed up. 


Prediction:

Mundine is the bigger man in this fight which has been made at a catch weight of 156.  Mundine has fought as high as 175 and Horn is a smallish welterweight.  Horn is aggressive and will look to rough up Mundine.  Mundine will try and control the action from the outside and outjab Horn.  I think Mundine will have success early in the fight and use his quick hands to outmaneuver the on rushing Horn and even be ahead after the first four rounds.  At that point, Horn’s aggressiveness wears Mundine down and Horn drops and stops Mundine inside the distance.



Horst-Meinders
Horst-Meinders

Wilder is 40-0 with 39 KO’s and he’s 33 years old and 6’7” in height.   The Bronze Bomber didn't start boxing until his early 20’s but proved to be a quick study as he earned a Bronze Medal (get it Bronze Bomber) in the 2008 Olympics.  In general, he has faced mediocre level of competition. His last fight with Luis Ortiz was a back and forth contest of wills. Wilder put Ortiz down early in the fight only to be outboxed and down on points until he stopped Ortiz in the 10 round.  He has big, one punch knockout power especially in his right hand. When he gets an opponent in big trouble, he looks like a 5 year old fighting his older brother as he swings wildly and recklessly with both hands.  He tends to flick a powerful, accurate  jab to control the action but has next to no foot movement. Avoids punches with head movement and sports “iron in his chin” and has excellent recuperative powers.  


Fury is 27-0 with 19 KO’s.  He’s 33 years old and a massive 6’9”.  He has faced a good level of competition and after gaining the heavyweight championship by defeating Wladimir Klitschko in 2015, Tyson retired from boxing and spiraled out of control for 2.5 years only to come out of retirement in 2017.  Tyson is unique in that most fighters “are who they are” and can fight only one way. Tyson is a chameleon in that he changes his style based on the competition. If he feels a fighter poses no threat, he will stand, clown and fight but if he senses a threat, he dances and moves.  He has good defense and roles with punches with head movement and feints. He does have a tendency to hold his left hand low and can be hit as Steve Cunningham a blow up cruiserweight put him on the canvas.  Fury is a “rhythm fighter” and likes to dictate the pace by reducing the fight speed to 30 miles per hour vs someone that Wilder who would prefer the fight at 80. He has a good sense of distance and stays on the outside. He can “dirty up a fight” and has been penalized a number of times for hitting behind the head and other infractions.


Prediction:

Wilder can end the fight at any moment with one big right hand. Knowing this, I expect Tyson will bring his “dancing shoes” to this contest. Fury weighed 258 pounds in his last fight, but I expect him to weigh around 240 this time. Fury will dance, move and stay on the outside as Wilder stalks him around the ring. Wilder is not adept at cutting off the ring and I think Fury’s movement will confuse and frustrate him. Fury will need to stay vigilant and weary of Wilder power at every moment or he will be caught and stopped. If Tyson wins it will be by decision and if Wilder wins I lean to a KO.  I bet the over 9.5 rounds prop at -150 odds.  I think Fury’s style is all wrong for the Wilder and Tyson dances his way to a decision victory. 



Horst-Meinders
Horst-Meinders

Buglioni is 22-3-3 with 16 KO’s.  He has been KO’d twice himself.  He recently lost to Callum Johnson by first round KO.  He is aggressive, hits hard and constantly wants to move forward hunting down his opponent. He’s a straight puncher with a good overhand right.  I think he’s a good domestic level fighter that you can't really trust as he can be beat by inferior fighters.


Fanlong “Cold Blood” Meng is 13-0 with 8 KO’s.  He’s 30 years old and very tall at 6’2”.  He has been brought along very slowly and faced very week competition.  He has questionable chin and a opponent with a 5-5 record knocked him down twice even though he tripped during the first knockdown. He’s a southpaw with a good jab, and sports good feints and looks to counter. He likes to slowly circle his opponent and  when he circles right, he only throws the right and when he circles left he only throws the left.


Prediction:

Buglioni is a wild card as he looks good in some fights and awful in others.  Meng is unknown and untested.  I think Meng stays on the outside and tries to control the action with his jab.  Buglioni tries to stalk Meng and tests his chin, while Meng looks to counter. I like the over 9.5 round proposition on the fight. I also put a small amount on Meng to win outright.    



Horst-Meinders
Horst-Meinders

Dimitry Bivol vs, Jean Pascal


Bivol is 14-0 with 11 KO’s.  He’s 27 years old and is 6’1”.  His notable fights include Isaac Chilemba (won wide decision) and Sullivan Barrera (12 round TKO).  Bivol has power in both hands and sports a strong and straight jab.  He has good defense but holds his gloves high which makes him vulnerable to body shots.  While he has power, he does not have one punch KO power.  He tends to dive in when he punches which leaves him vulnerable to clashes of heads. He has quick hand speed, little foot movement  and wins rounds through activity.  He has a good understanding of distance and likes to fight and stay in mid range.  


Jean Pascal is 33-5-1 with 20 KO’s.  He has been KO’d himself twice. His notable and recent fights include Eleider Alvarez (lost by middle decision) and twice fought Sergey Kovalev and lost both by KO. He most recently fought a MMA fighter with one fight of experience and it took Pascal eight rounds to get rid of him. I’m guessing he carried him but don't know how much he has left to offer after a long career.  He’s quick with a good chin and looks to counter. He has good power and looks to brawl. He likes to dive in when he punches and recently started throwing with both hands at the same time when he dives in.  


Prediction:  

Bivol wins the question is how.  Pascal has had a long successful career and retired a few years ago only to reconsider and agree to fight on. Bivol is young, hungry and very good. Pascal will try to stay in the fight by brawling with Bivol and making the fight ugly. Pascal has a good chin and the over/under is 5.5 rounds -I like the over.  I hope Pascal can use counter punching a rough tactics to stay in the fight.  But I also like Bivol to win by KO in the second half of the fight.



Horst-Meinders
Horst-Meinders

Kerman “The Revolver” Lejarraga is 26-0  with 21 KO’s. He has fought his entire career in Spain but has faced decent competition of late.  He has a tight defense, good jab but can be countered as he constantly looks for the power shot.  He has power in both hands and constantly marches forward as he stalks his opponent.  Decent fighter but susceptible to losing to a fighter with an active jab that uses good movement. 


Gavin is 33 years old with a 26-3 record with includes 15 KO’s.  He has lost by KO twice himself. Other than Kell Brook, the level of competition he has faced is woeful and his bet win was on points vs. Bradley Skeete in 2014.  Lejarraga KO’s Skeete in 2 rounds in 2018.  Gavin is a southpaw that throws a good straight punch. Even though he has 15 KO’s, I question his power and his own punch resistance.   


Prediction:  

Gavin is a decent domestic level fighter and a champion in the unpaid ranks. At 33, he’s in the twilight of his career and he tends to loses to better competition. He has won his last three fights against abysmal competition. Lejarraga is young, undefeated and fighting at home. Gavin does not have the foot movement needed to handle Lejarraga.  I expect “The Revolver” to take some hard jabs from Gavin as he marches in but eventually catches and stops Gavin.      



Horst-Meinders
Horst-Meinders

Hooker is 24-0 with 16 KO’s and 3 draws on his record.  He’s 29 years old with 8 kids to feed (talk about motivation!).  In his last fight, he travelled to Manchester, England to fight Terry Flanagan and lifted his WBO Super Lightweight title.  Flanagan was undefeated but has little power which Hooker took advantage of by boxing, moving and scoring points.  Hooker is tall 5’11” and uses a “range finding” jab to control the action.  He has good defense and constantly moves a few half steps to his right or left to stay out of range of his opponents jab. He’s faced fairly good competition and sports a decent chin. 


Saucedo is 28-0 with 18 KO’s.  He’s tall 5’10” and also fights tall as he has a good straight jab and power in each hand.  He has an excellent trainer in Abel Sanchez and has been brought along slowly as he has faced mediocre competition to this point. He prefers to fight in the middle of the ring and stays in “mid range” throughout the fight. As a result, he can be hit and is susceptible to counter punching. He has good hand speed and takes punches well. His last fight was a step-up fight vs. Lenny Zappavinga in which he won by 7th round KO.  There was a point in the fight were he got tagged by Lenny with a combination of punches and almost went down. 


Prediction:

Saucedo is fighting (literally) in his backyard and will have the fans cheering his every move.  Hooker is the champ and as they say, once you are champion you immediately improve by 25%. Saucedo is quick with power in each hand but tends to get hit and hurt by counters. Saucedo likes to bang and to have his opponent stand and fight. Will he be able to cut off the ring as Hooker moves and flicks out jab after jab? This is a close fight to handicap.  I would have made Hooker the favorite at -150.  The oddsmakers disagree and installed Saucedo a 2:1 favorite.  I bet Hooker to win at +150.  I plan to wait to close to fight time and I assume (hope) the odds will tighten up so that Hooker will be bet-up to the favorite by fight time.  If that happens, I can then “hedge” by betting on Saucedo at even or better odds.    



Horst-Meinders
Horst-Meinders

Glowacki is 32 years old with a record of 30-1 with 19 KO’s.  His lone loss was to the master boxer Usyk in 2016.  He fights out of the southpaw stance and like to wade-in and make the fight rough. He swings big and has a huge left hook but also a competent counter puncher. He takes punches well and never stops trying.  He was down on the cards against Marco Huck only to KO him in the 11 round.  Vulnerable to losing against fighters with good jabs and movement.  


Vlasov is also 32 years old with a 42-2 record with 25 KO’s.  He’s tall 6’2” and his losses were against Gilberto Ramirez and Isaac Chilemba in 2011.  He’s an active puncher with a good jab.  On defense, he holds his hands very high to protect his face which leaves him vulnerable to body punches.  He fights in the orthodox stance but seamlessly switches to southpaw. His level of competition to date is mediocre. 


Prediction:

This is a competitive fight. Does Vlasov have a good enough jab to control the fight or does Glowacki get inside and rough-up Vlasov? I agree with the odds makers that this is an even fight. Both fighters have studied the other closely which I believe will lead to a tactical fight that goes rounds. I like the fight going over ten rounds prop.  



Horst-Meinders
Horst-Meinders

Oleksandr Usyk is 15-0 with 11 KO’s and has been matched against a “murders row” of cruiserweights. He is one confident dude as his last six fights against Glowacki, Mchunu, Hunter, Huck, Briedis and Gassiev have all been fought in the his oppositions backyard. You don't usually see his name listed as one of the “pound for pound” top ten best but he's near the top of my list. He fights out of the southpaw stance and pumps out a volume of punches to control the action. Calling him fundamentally sound is an understatement, as he’s really a master boxer with power to boot. He has good defense with very good footwork and movement.    


Tony “Bomber” Bellew will be 36 at the end of this month and in the twilight of a good career.  He’s 30-2-1 with 20 KO’s and has been KO’d once himself.  Started fighting at 175 but after getting “run over” and stopped by Adonis Stevenson in 2013, he reinvented himself as a cruiserweight and fought and won eight times against mediocre to good competition.  His last two fights were grudge matches against David Haye at heavyweight and he won both as a big underdog. Bellew is tall (over 6’3”) with a solid jab and good head movement.  He looks to counter and throws his left hand as he “swings for the fences.”  But his all-out left hand leaves him vulnerable to counters and in many fights, he gets marked up under the right eye.  


Prediction:

Bellew is well liked in the U.K. and somewhat of a “cinderella story” after moving up to heavyweight and putting a grateful end to David Haye career. I’m not sure what time the fight will take place locally, but the clock will strike midnight for cinderella in this fight.  Usyk to “provide” Bellew with a boxing lesson in this one.  The only question in my mind is how Usyk wins the fight.  At first, I leaned to Usyk stopping Bellew within 10 rounds.  But in his last six fights, Usyk has only stopped two fighters and both late stops.  It all depends on Bellew, does he continue to fight if he’s hopelessly behind later in the fight?  Does his corner throw in the towel after a sustained beating? You can pick up Usyk by decision at +160 or by KO at -160.  Not confident in either of those proposition picks.  Take Usyk to win but wait to bet until close to fight time as I believe the odds will come in as “players” take a shot at the underdog Bellew.



Horst-Meinders
Horst-Meinders

Quote Originally Posted by Maximus1978:

I like this prop, but was thinking what round as well. Any ideas?

Picking the exact round is really tough.  The "pick the round" odds that books post don't reflect the true odds of picking a particular round to end.  I would not play that prop,   it would be the equivalent of winning the lottery. 

 

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