AtlantaDavid

She ran a solid race at over 20-1 but couldn’t touch the top pair. I’m done for the night and got a big sweat anyhow. 

CD race 9. Coming back with #7 Belle Laura   Best lifetime performance was here in BC. No world beaters in this one and she is over 10-1 right now. WP for $50

Heartbreaking 2nd at 13-1. Hurts when I knew he was ready for this division and now cats out of the bag so never get that price again  oh well 

lost leg 1    going $5 DD all over Quip and $100 Quip to Win   He has all the looks of running a breakout race before everyone finds out how good he now is

Race 6    $5 pk3

3,4/all/9

Really like Quip to be a major player in the classic divsion     He should be right in first pack and can win this at a great price

The BC has to move now yes-- but I am hoping they move it to Del Mar as the weather is perfect. The BC at Del Mar a few years ago was awesome. Churchill is a great venue the potential crappy November weather may hurt the event. If the BC was ever moved to September I would like it on the east coast at CD or Belmont. 

But they just cant keep it at SA due to media risk. If there was a horrific break down in the BC this year at SA then horse racing would be extinct in the US in the next 5 years.

Race 7  #5 Fancy Dress Party 10-1ml is 4 for 4 and will be out front pressing the pace and may gun for the lead. This is her test for class and distance but she may be the goods. Worth the gamble

Race 8  #11 Wendell Fong 10-1ml ran better than looked last out and that was a career best win and figure. Huge upside- will be overlooked at the windows with the super trainers in here. Love this horse.

Race 9  #9 Price Lucky 12-1ml hated the sloppy going last out but now gets fast ground and a perfect draw in this mile loaded with pace. Should sit 4 or 5 outside and make a run late.

Race 10  #10 Channel Maker 9/2ml is the best non Chad Brown horse in the race and all the Brown entries will get hammered and one will probably win but #10 fits with them and looks to be in peak form. Hopefully Rosario goes towards front early and if he can he has shown guts to stay

Race 11  #1 Joevia 30-1ml  Calling my shot. This is a complete pace play and I feel he gets lead pretty easily with all the logical pace types letting him go. He has never had an uncontested lead and has that look as one who could just get really brave and blow up the tote. I do think the race is wide open and hate War of Will as I think the triple crown grind catches up badly to him today. Tacitus was a big horse for me this spring and I do like him to be the logical winner but he doesn’t tower over anyone.

Race 12  #7 Mr. Maybe 12-1ml needed comebacker in last race and raced great last year so why not keep it going at 8 years old. Nothing much to beat in here

Race 13  #2 Campaign 7/2ml made a very eye catching late run at this marathon distance last out in a career best performance. You just don’t see those kinds of winning runs at this distance and this 4yr old son of Curlin may be the best marathon horse the US has had in a awhile.  May be the last time you get anything close to 7/2 on him.

Weather is perfect and should be fast and firm. Im playing these prices and others in multis but have no time to post it all.  Quick write up. Tons of Grade 1 races. Insane!  Good Luck

Race 1  #2 Shadow Rider 8-1ml looks to get a dream trip in this short field. The favs all like racing on the pace and this 7yr old gelding loves Belmont park and will be coming late.  

Race 2  #9 Uncle Artie 9/2ml has improved since being gelded in March and should relish this two turn maiden turf route. Rosario should make one nice run late as there is some cheap pace entered.

Race 3  #5 Majid 6-1ml has rounded into a real race horse and should be the pace setter. Takes a huge step up in class against these but this isn’t a stellar stakes field. If #6 doesn’t go with him early its over

Race 4  #7 Got Stormy 6-1ml should sit right off the fav #4 early and wouldn’t shock to get her late. This mile has very little pace signed of so the #7 will get a ideal trip and she is coming off career best effort.

Race 5  #4 Escape Clause 9/2ml is a freak of nature. 31 starts and 20 wins. 5 yr old Manitoba bred is definition of a race mare and a real rags to riches story. She wont be bet much but can win this.

Race 6  BOMB  #1 Undrafted 12-1ml will be overlooked with Disco Partner and World of Trouble taking all the money but looking closely at his numbers and style he can shock in here. Key is there needs to be multiple horses trying to go early with World of Trouble. If that happens maybe he gets softened up and the #1 gets dream trip. He will be more than 20-1 off odds I believe but shouldn’t be

Angle- for 7 furlong races on dirt always look to horses who race well at a mile or more vs 6 furlongs or less but first look for  7 furlong specialists at that same track.  Very easy way to cash on a long price playing an out of form horse getting back to 7 furlongs at the track he has won at the same trip.   

Im capping tracks for tomorrow and an reminded this is the time of year the 3 yr olds are moving into races facing 3yr olds and up. 

Angle-  Always play the older horses vs 3 yr olds in May and June when they appear similar on paper. Reasoning is that the 3yr olds have been facing much weaker (their own age) so their performaces look strong but when facing older they will dissapoint more times then not.  The only exception is at the very bottom levels as the older horses are proven losers for life but the 3 year old may jump up and still have some upside.  

What are some of your key angles?    

Thanks! She was brave and much the best! And that price was just fine. 

Wont be much of a price but Belmont Race 8 is a 7 furlong turf stake and #2 Significant Form 2-1ml doesnt lose this race if she is ready off the layoff. Steady works in for awhile now and I have always thought she would be a great one turn turf sprinter every since her huge burst she showed in in her debut. Case could also be made that she has the hottest owner out there.  :)    Im laying $300 hoping for 8/5 or better and that will be my Belmont Card money.

Been looking at the cards and the big tracks and there are some nice fields going. Weather at all major tracks forecast to be perfect and all races should be fast and firm. Should be a great day to play with minimal scratches.   

He is a good horse but most likely a sprinter/miler     this years firenze fire  

The 3 got 2nd so you just missed. The 4 got third 

thanks    if I can get the current 3-1 price on the 8 in race 3 I will be going $200 on the win

Some of my win bets are scratched-- replacing them with below 

Race 8  $50 Win #12  12-1ml 

Race 9  $50 Win #12  Orra Moor  10-1ml

Lots of scratches in Race 12 also-- my #9 will most likely go of as fav now-- and should win easy as the two other speed balls scratched    Race 12 updated exotics are  $10 ex box 2-9 Cost $20   And $1 pk 3  2,9/6/all   cost $28

Race 11  The Grade II Black Eyed Susan stakes. Good looking evenly matched field in here. #8 Point of Honor 5/2ml looks the part of a future star and I really like the other favs in here also. Used all three favs in the pk 4 but just making a flat win bet in this race and hoping for 5/2.  $100 Win #8

Race 12  #9 Completed Pass 8-1ml showed he liked turf last out and is a super fast sprinter. I like his outside draw in here and has stalked and pounced before in his career so doesn’t need the lead in a race that has many front end types. $50 Win #9  I do think #2 will run late for 2 passing the fading speed so I’ll use him underneath in an $10 Exacta 3,8,9/2 Cost $30   $1 pk 3  2,3,8,9/6/3,4,8,11,12 Cost $20

Race 13 #6 Golden Award 5/2ml looks to get a very soft front running trip at this distance. She is stepping way up against some good graded fillies and mares but the pace on paper just isn’t there. Total lone pace play for me $50 Win #6 

Race 14  #8 Along Came Mizzy 30-1 Bomb! Has shown much in 3 lifetime starts but I think she wants turf routes.  This a weak 25k maiden claimer so why not this one? $20 Win #8 and .50 tri box 3,4,8,11,12 Cost $30

Race 7  #8 Majestic Won 15-1ml should be forwardly placed stalking cheap speed and get first run on the big fav in here. Wide open race if #3 Chalon needs a race 1 since Breeders Cup.   $20 Win #8

Race 8  #9 Sue’s Fortune 30-1 Bomb! New York bred shows up in here off the break and was a fast 2yr old with only loss coming against Jaywalk in Grade 1 Frizette at a mile. Already a Grade II winner last year and been training lights out. There really isn’t a reason to ship in from Belmont for this unless trainer thinks she can win. Can’t see getting 30-1 or more but anything over 15-1 looks juicy. Bad morning line here. There are a ton of other fast ones showing up so its really wide open. $50 Win #9 and starting a .50 pk 4  2,4,5,9,11,12/1,2,5,11,12/2,13/4,6,8 Cost $90

Race 9  #1 Primela 20-1ml raced ok vs better than these last out in a Grade II at the trip. Was 10-1 that day so no reason she should be 20-1 in here. Chad Brown has two horses in here so you know his 3yr fillies will get hammered at the windows deservedly so since he most likely will win but the #1 deserves a shot.  $50 Win #1 and .50 tri box 1,2,5,11,12 Cost $30

Race 10  Pletcher looks to have a great chance between his two very good route horses #2 and #13. #2 Rally Cry gets the better draw and should be forwardly placed early. Distance will be a question with that but not with the #13 You’re to Blame. I’m playing a $10 exacta 2,13/2,4,13 as #4 Carlino will be rolling late and could grab 2.   Cost $40

Weather looks good and these fields are super deep. Dirt should be fast and races should stay on turf. Always a tough handicapping choice on Preakness weekend whether to play in form Mid-Atlantic based horses or invaders from the big circuits many coming off long layoffs. Will be prices out there. I’ll be heading to the OTB and playing $1,000 Friday.  Good luck!

Race 1  #2 Midnight Mass 5-1ml was sent off as fav in lifetime start number one and came with a nice late run to get second at 5.5 furlongs in a 10k maiden claimer. Connections stepped her up for 25k next out at mile and she showed speed contesting the pace and faded. Drops back down and cuts back to 6 furlongs. Also beware ##13 is she draws in.  $20 Win #1  and $5 DD 2,7,13/8,9,14 Cost $45

Race 2  #8 Family Tree 6-1ml was disappointing last out against tougher but was never comfortable and contested early then faded. Looks to get a softer pace against weaker opposition and should be right there at the end. $20 Win #8

Race 3  #8 Fleeterthan 3-1ml is the best of the day. She should set pace and romp or stalk a weak front runner and pounce. I just can’t see her losing this race. Anything over 2-1 looks like a gift to me.  $100 Win #8  Singling to start a .50pk 4  8/1,4,5,9/4,5,6,7,8,11/5,8,9,14,16 Cost $60

Race 4  #4 Belmullet 15-1ml deserves a look first time on turf. Well bred for turf sprinting and not in for the tag. Wouldn’t surprise me. $20 Win #4  $1 tri box 1-4-5-9 Cost $24

Race 5  #7 Olive Kat 12-1ml showed a ton of ability as a 2yr old dirt sprinter. Comes back as a 3 yr old and will be overlooked in this one due to the presence of some super trainers. Her numbers as 2 yr old fit snuggly and if she doesn’t need a race and takes the progressive step up she can win. $50 Win #7

Race 6  #9 Makes Mo Cents 20-1 Bomb! Has ability and tried turf last out split the field lagging back and running late. This is a large field size and race really has the look to produce a crazy result. Hoping to catch something. $20 Win #9   .50tri box 5-8-9-14-16 Cost $30