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AtlantaDavid
AtlantaDavid

Dang. Got nothing. Prices were there but I didn’t have the right ones. Close to putting together that late pick 4 for stacks but leg one knocked me out. Next up the Wood and Florida Derby. 

AtlantaDavid
AtlantaDavid

Race 10  The Grade II New Orleans Handicap  My huge price play of the day is #4 Noble Indy 15-1ml. He was a good early 3yr old horse and ended up beat down when trying the triple crown trail last year. Gelded and given time off, he got back to the races last month in a 6 furlong sloppy fitness tune up vs stud sprinter XY Jet. Working fast and I am trusting Pletcher with this move as if he wasn’t feeling good and back in form then this ship doesn’t make sense. No one will bet this horse off his last 4 PPs but if he is right and he is slightly better now then a year ago when he won the Louisiana Derby at the same distance then he can beat this marginal Grade II field.   $50 Win,  $1 tri box 3-4-6-10 Cost $24, and starting a pricy .50 cent pk 4 which is a big guaranteed pool    3,4,6,10/3,4,5,7/2,3,4,6/3,5,6,7 Cost $128

Race 11  Grade II Muniz Memorial Handicap on turf  #4 Bandua 12-1ml ran a good 2 on this track and has some nice works since. Maybe this 4 yr old is ready to become a prime-time turf runner. Always has had some hype and he hasn’t disgraced himself in some Grade I races either. I think this distance is what he wants and should get first run on the closers and hopefully good enough to hold them off. $50 Win

Race 12 The Grade II Fairgrounds Oaks  The 2 may be even money fav however in her last race she got an easy lead so I am hoping she gets pace pressure and gets nipped late. Playing a exacta and hoping #2 gets 2 and using some stalker/closers I like to get first. $20 exacta 3,4,6/2  Cost $60

Race 13 The Grade II Louisiana Derby for 3 yr olds   #6 War of Will has done nothing wrong routing on dirt and deserves to be an even money favorite in this race but I am looking for a horse that could improve by many lengths and turn the tables on him has landed me on #7 Mr. Money 20-1ml. He made a menacing move and tired late in the Risen Star but had to need that race after coming back from running a good 4 in the Grade I Breeders Cup Juvenile. He will be every bit of 20-1 or more but I really like him and am confident he gets a huge piece. $50 Win and $50 Place on #7 and playing a big exacta box with a few other longshots I like with the fav  $5 Exacta Box 3-5-6-7 Cost $60

AtlantaDavid
AtlantaDavid

Race 5  MSW for 3 yr old fillies going mile on turf  Really can make a case for many of these so I looked for a potential break out lightly raced horse. Landed on #3 Sparkling Champagn 10-1ml who raced well at 5.5 furlongs off the turf debut. Hope she got some fitness she will need for this demanding mile and shouldn’t be bet much. $20 Win #3,  $1 tri box 3-5-7-10 Cost $24

Race 6  Crescent City Derby for state bred 3 yr olds going a mile and sixteenth. The 2 will be odds on in this one and tough to beat but I am hoping #12 Jus Lively 8-1 continues to show his race to race improvement as he continues to stretch out. Looks like he can run forever so will be coming late under Florent Geroux. The 3 is a price and could get a soft pace and have a shot. I’m playing $20 Win #12 and $5 exacta box 2,3,12 Cost $30 and starting a .50 cent pick 4   2,3,12/7,8,9,10/3,4,8/6,7,9,11 Cost $72

Race 7 MSW a mile on the turf. #9 Stage Ready 15-1ml finally gets turf after running up the track on his 2 lifetime off the turf tries. Wants turf and bred up and down for it. Some other decent prices I like in here also so playing an exacta box with some shots.  $20 Win #9 and $5 exacta box 7-8-9-10 Cost $60

Race 8  MSW going mile and sixteenth  #4 Box of Chocolates 12-1ml disappointed in only career start as the favorite but stretches out and Geroux stays on and may be overlooked. Been working well for 2 time out and should be forwardly placed from the beginning. $20 Win #4, $5 exacta box 3-4-8 Cost $30

Race 9 Costa Rising Stakes for state bred turf sprinters going 5.5 furlongs. #6 Fame Feather 12-1ml takes on the boys in this loaded sprint stake. She found what she excels at in 5.5 furlong turf sprints and is 4 for 5 at this trip albeit against fillies. Gets the big boy test here. Confident trainer move.  $20 Win #6

AtlantaDavid
AtlantaDavid

Huge fields and perfect weather on tap for Saturday’s Louisiana Derby card tomorrow. I am playing long prices and hoping to catch a long price exotic or multi race wager for a huge score. Competitive deep fields so there is money out there if you get the right one. I’m playing a little over $1,000 pending tomorrows changes/scratches. Good luck

Race 1  MSW State Breds   The horses who have run more than once don’t look like much so I leaned some 2 timers and firsters. One I really like is #8 Malasong 8-1ml who was bet decent in his lackluster debut at 5.5 furlongs where he raced wide and showed nothing. Stretches out to 6 furlongs for Al Stall Jr and gets James Graham to ride. Have a feeling he is much better than he showed. $20 Win on #8, $5 Exacta box 8-9-12 Cost $30, and playing a .50 cent pk 4  6,8,9,12/1,7/2,5,9/2,9,10  Cost $36

Race 2 The Crescent City Oaks for state bred 3yr old fillies going 1 mile 70 yards   If she goes in this race (cross entered in the Grade II Oaks) then #1 Crescentcitypretty 9/2ml is my best bet of the day. She should be forwardly placed breaking from the rail and is 2 for 3 with an excuse in her only loss which was against some of these. A gate to wire score here possible at a good price. $50 Win bet #1

Race 3  New Orleans Ladies Stakes on the turf going a mile and sixteenth.  Looks wide open to me so I’ll take the comebacker #9 Sensitive 6-1ml. Off since last May but been working great for Brad Cox and raced good in only FG turf start. $20 Win #9

Race 4  State Bred AOC  Hoping for a pace collapse in this 6 furlong sprint and if so then #10 Greely Went West 15-1ml does fit in a meltdown race. Cuts back and does his best as a very late running sprinter and won’t be bet at all. $20 Win and $20 Place on #10, and a $5 Exacta Box 2,9,10 Cost $30

AtlantaDavid
AtlantaDavid

I cant get around the chalk this morning   Maybe some dogs tonight but havent narrowed down yet

Louisville -6

LSU -6.5

Auburn -6

mikeyp1
mikeyp1
Horse Racing / Atlanta Dave / View Post

Thanks Mikey.  Putting in some time and having a good early start to the year. Fairgrounds card Saturday is epic with large and pretty equal fields. Perfect weather to boot! I’ll be playing and posting for sure. 

Kaino3
Kaino3

This match today means a lot to Fed. Thiem can’t beat Roger on hard courts. Age isn’t an issue. Roger got his bad serving match out of the way last out against Hurkacz and had a day to get right. Straight sets win with no tiebreakers. 

AtlantaDavid
AtlantaDavid

Came out profiting $200 but just missed out a nice late pk4 that would have been nice. I’ll be trying again next week with a bigger bankroll. 

AtlantaDavid
AtlantaDavid

That means I put $20 on horse to win and another $20 on horse to place. So betting  $40 total. 

AtlantaDavid
AtlantaDavid

Race 6 there were some sratches and the 5 and 12 are out. So doing a 1-2-10 exacta box to replace the 5-10-12 box and using 1-2-10 in the pick three I played. 

AtlantaDavid
AtlantaDavid

A win bet means horse must finish 1st. Place bet means horse must finish 1st or 2nd. And show bet means horse must finish 1st 2nd or 3rd. I normally recommend playing win bets only as place and show bets don’t return much in payouts. However it’s ok to play place bets when playing price horses many price horses can run well but still find a way to just get beat at the wire. 

Tailgatingcats
Tailgatingcats

Yes-- I am a Bovada Hall of Fame rewards member but since the software changed I believe the management or ownership changed also. The cancel more live bets then they honor and my last 2,000 check took a month to receive. Not to mention a customer service rep called me 2-3 times during that month saying they were working on it but it would be better if i switched to bitcoin for faster payout.  I am done with them.  I mainly play horses and their rebate is phenomenal but not if i cant funds back when i need them, 

AtlantaDavid
AtlantaDavid

Race 9  The Essex Handicap  #5 Chris and Dave 15-1ml steps up in class but fits against these and should be towards the front early with soft fractions.  There aren’t any world beaters in here and many others have disappointed all their careers. My horse tries hard every race and likes to be there at the end finishing 1 or 2 in half his 40 lifetime starts. Had a great 5 yr old year and no reason to think he can’t keep firing as a 6yr old. $20 Win and place and $10 exacta box 5-7  Cost $20

Race 10  The Rebel Stakes Grade II (Division 2) #2 Laughing Fox 10-1ml may be the best local 3yr old at Oaklawn this year and has improved every start. Let the cat out of the bag last out with a big performance at this same trip. LOVE the fact that there are big names in this race with him and he may be overlooked at the windows. Do not ignore this horse. $50 Win and place $2 tri box 2-4-5-6 Cost $48

Race 11  #10 Firecrow 4-1ml looks like a scary good 1 timer for Ron Moquett. Expensive 2 yr old purchase for a sire known to throw fast young sprinters. Indian Charlie dam also and fast works. If as good as the profile looks he can score first out. $20 win and place  

AtlantaDavid
AtlantaDavid

Race 5   #9 Atthepearlygates 15-1ml showed some early zip from the rail in career debut when dismissed at 44-1 in a loaded field with a couple next out winners.  Should get a softer pace on the stretch out and there isn’t much pace on paper. Will be a big price.  $20 Win and place  $1 pk 3   6,9/5,10,12/all Cost $36

Race 6   #10 Tapsolute 20-1ml is a bomb that fits neatly in this AOC 50k mile for older horses. Runs best at Oaklawn mile and if he can get some pace to run at he can close late for it all. $20 Win and place and playing a $5 ex box with 5,10,12 also  Cost $30

Race 7 Grade II Azeri Stakes  Wow- what a great field albeit a short one.  If Elate is right or Midnight Bisou takes to Oaklawn then one of those wins easily. Hoping that doesn’t happen and then its wide open and looking at the pace it appears #6 Shamrock Rose will be stalking #1 Tapa Tapa Tapa or if one of those doesn’t break then the other one should get the kindest of front end trip. I am not playing a win bet but I think one can win with the other fading late so playing a large ex $10 ex 1,6/2,5  Cost $40  and playing a .50 pk4 all/2,8,9/5,7/2,4,5,6  Cost $72

Race 8  The Rebel Stakes Grade II (Division 1) #2 Long Range Teddy 10-1ml would really benefit if he can sit 3 or 4 early behind the cal shippers then try to run by them late. The Cal shippers #8 and #9 will be very short prices and I am hopping that leads to #2 being overlooked. He has good natural race progression and could be sitting on his break out moment. $50 Win and place

AtlantaDavid
AtlantaDavid

Looks to be a beautiful day tomorrow and I am playing some local price shots vs California shippers particularly Baffert’s two odds on favs in the features as I believe the break in training caused by the poor track conditions plus training over a bad track period the last month will play a part. Not to mention racing a week later than originally scheduled for many of them and the unplanned ship to Arkansas. I may get blasted by the fast and classy Cal crop as they really tower over these local horses figure and class wise but I stand to make a few nice scores tomorrow if I am on to something. I did include some Cal shippers in some multi race wagers especially in both divisions of the Rebel since i have prices in most legs. Risking around $850 depending on scratches tomrorow. 

Race 1 and early Pick 4    #4 Ludington 8-1ml ran a credible speed and mild fade race in his debut exactly one month ago. Morse is ice cold but is too good of trainer to discount and he may heat up today with some prices. Steady works since last race for this homebred son of up and coming sire Creative Cause. $20 Win and place   $.50 pk 4  1,2,4,6,8/1,3,6,9,10/2/4,5,6  Cost $37.50

Race 2 #10 Tonedaddy 9/2 ml gets my money in this pretty cool 1 and ½ marathon starter allowance race. Distance won’t be a problem and should settle in a perfect stalking trip all the way twice around. Horse should be super fit after going slightly shorter on March 7. $20 Win and place

Race 3  #2 Proverb 6-1ml is my best bet of the day and a single in my early pick 4. Came back and raced ok in 3yr old debut Feb 9 but put in a serious work Sunday. I look for a big improvement and stalk and pounce trip with Rosario on board. $50 Win and place

 

Race 4 #6 All Bizness 10-1ml stretches out and faces some well-meant 3 yr olds in this AOC 62.5k route. Looks like a real race horse and won’t be bet but if he improves in third career start like he did last out then watch out. Could be any type. $20 Win and place

 

DiverRon
DiverRon

There is cheating in racing and all kinds of sports when betting is involved. Money rules in the end. The cheaper the racing event the more likely some cheating going on. I feel there isn’t much jockey cheating (trying to lose) so that leaves drugs and medication. I take the opinion that most trainers get the horse ready as best they can, drugs or no drugs. You can analyze percentages off claims and other angles to help predict which trainers moves are best for whatever reason. Best game in the world to gamble on to me 

FeltonsFollies
FeltonsFollies
Wofford is a very confident and great team- lay the points 
AtlantaDavid
AtlantaDavid

thumbs_up 

AtlantaDavid
AtlantaDavid

Im playing all over today and my best bet so far is GP Race 12    #7 He Hate Me 9/2 needed last race in his comeback and pressed and faded. Gets the perfect draw today and should stalk and pounce. Been working perfectly since last race and should improve by many lengths off last. $100 Win

fastbreaker
fastbreaker

Dont really trust the number on Tacitus. Set stakes record yesterday although track was playing fast yes. It may be him and Outshine are really fast and ran triple digits. The Beyer team doesn’t really know thus the safe number they gave. That track is super quirky also. 

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