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steponaduck

steponaduck
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steponaduck replied to 2019 NCAA FB RSW PLAYS
in College Football
Texas State RSW Under 4.5. -130

Projected losses:

@A&M
Wyoming
@ SMU
@Arkansas St
@ UL Lafayette 
Troy
@ App State 

Will elaborate more on these games. 

7 projected losses. Is Texas State going 5-0 vs:

Nichols
Georgia St
Coastal Carolina
South Alabama 
UL Monroe

???

Doubt very seriously. They could start the season 1-4 before hosting ULM, who will be itching to get to 3-3 and keep bowl hopes alive. 

Schedule is too tough, coastal Car is improving. ULM and Georgia state will be close games. Nichols...they almost beat Georgia that one time...(kidding). 

Under 4.5 RSW. 
16
steponaduck replied to La Tech Week 1
in College Football
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

its does not matter what they have done in teh past. This year 3 under Herman...Personally, I would not touch Texas against a pretty good La Tech team...But, if you think this a L, then you are mistaken...Texas has a chip on its shoulder and it is getting closer to exerting its will on bad teams...that's a transformative shift. Sure, call me a homer, but Texas is getting closer to Bama, Clemson, UGA, than the $hishow it has been for the last 10 yeqears.


Stop it, you just sound foolish. Texas is nowhere near those other teams, in fact I would give you Texas +28.5 against Bama right now. 

QB play is mediocre and they would get dominated in the trenches. 

Texas is staring 8-5 and the holiday bowl right square in the nose. 

They are no where near Bama/Clem 
18
steponaduck replied to La Tech Week 1
in College Football
Huge play for me too. Have you seen TX the last three 

Year 1 games?   La tech should compete here 
18
How many different threads or posts are you going to make about this? Do you have posted in everybody’s thread about regular season wins, we know you like Michigan State

Good luck to ya bro 
14
Love the insight here. 

GL double. You are awesome dude. 
43
steponaduck replied to 2019 NCAA FB RSW PLAYS
in College Football
Slightly better on Nevada. Same on the others. BOL my much respected brother. I will love collaborating with you this year DU4L!! 
16
steponaduck replied to 2019 NCAA FB RSW PLAYS
in College Football
Updated List of Plays:

Western Ky u 5
Nevada u 6.5
Tulsa u 4.5 

I am just getting warmed up. Will have 3-4 more plays 
16
steponaduck replied to 2019 NCAA FB RSW PLAYS
in College Football
Tulsa RSW under 4.5. -135

Tulsa schedule is brutal, with Michigan state and Oklahoma state in the non conference, draw Cincinnati and UCF in the aac cross over, play Memphis, Houston, navy...smu on the road with the ponies having revenge.  they really only have 4 winnable games on the slate. Their OL will be in shambles to start off. 

@michigan state. +21.5 currently. MSU not a team to run up the score, but Tulsa might not score more than 7-10 facing the MSU pressure sound defense. Loss. 

@ San Jose state. Likely a win but who knows what Jose will be or what Tulsa OL state of mind will be in. And on the road again. 

OK St. could be a max effort spot here and might love the golden hurricane catching 20+ (+28.5 if they lose to Jose??) but they aren’t winning this one. 

Where is there mindset if they sit at 0-3?? Does physical Wyoming style push them around? Do they get up for this game before the bye week? Anywhere from 0-4 to 2-2 would not surprise me. Wyo is awful on the road. Just 9-26 the L6 yrs. but have a great shot to open 3-1 themselves. Wyoming game is a toss up. 

@SMU. This should be a thrashing. Tulsa kept smu from bowling last year and should really max out as they play this game and head into a bye week (smu does). Ponies much improved in y2 under sonny dykes. Loss for Tulsa. 

Navy. Loss. Tulsa awful vs triple option cutting schemes. 1-4 L4 vs navy and 0-4 ATS L4 also. Not happening here, especially if navy would beat AF the week before. 

After navy they get to play @ Cincinnati. The highest rated team in AAC E. Cincy should max out here and could be really hungry for a win. Loss for Tulsa 

Memphis. Best team in AAC W. Loss. 

Now they play Tulane. 0-2 L2 vs wave, and likely will not be able to solve 3x option here as well. Although Tulane will incorporate more passing this year. Loss. 

UCF. Exceptional spot for golden hurricane here at home on a Friday night (colder weather maybe) catch 18 or so. No SU win. Loss here. 

After a bye week they play HU. HU takes Tulsa lightly every year and it nearly hit them LY. (Final sector not indicative of VERY CLOSE Game. Tulsa lead 26-19 late. Maybe Dana will take Tulsa seriously. UH wins. TU covers. Would love to catch the GH +14 or so. 

@ ECU. Has Tulsa mailed it in? Do they care. Is Philip Montgomery fired already? RSW likely won’t come down to this game. 

Tulsa absolutely brutal schedule. Tough situations galore. Tough home games. Tough road games. Tough non conference. Completely new OL. Crappy D. New QB. Tulsa has not won a road game in 2 years. 

Even tho they might be better than last years team, there are only 3-4 wins on the slate. 

Under 4.5 RSW


16
steponaduck replied to Lets talk Win Totals
in College Football
I WOULD go as far as to say I would call the Air Force vs cu game a toss up. Not beating Nebraska (shouldnt). 

2-1 or 1-2 in the non conference. 

No way they win 3 P12 games with that schedule. 

Under 4.5 seems almost certain. They are going to have to win a game or two as +7.5 or greater...not likely. 
10
steponaduck replied to Lets talk Win Totals
in College Football
I think Colorado will be awful once again this year. But I also tend to bet RSW unders. Good luck pal. 
10
steponaduck replied to 2019 NCAA FB RSW PLAYS
in College Football
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

What up Step? Look forward to interacting with you this season!

Likewise pal. 
16
steponaduck replied to 2019 NCAA FB RSW PLAYS
in College Football
To quote our good buddy Dennie Green, these teams are who we thought they were. 
16
steponaduck replied to 2019 NCAA FB RSW PLAYS
in College Football
New favorite RSW. Playing this one equal to Nevada. 

Western Ky Hilltoppers under 5.0 RSW. -125

How in the world is this team going to get to 6-6 and cause me to lose this?

Likely wins:
Central Arkansas. 
  LY WKU lost to Maine. Is this a sure thing?? 

Toss ups: 
  @ODU. “No D U” (old dom) improved? Could be really hungry for a win after playing VT, UVA and ECU

Charlotte. Toppers beat up after playing army cut blocking scheme?


MTSU likely playing (MT that is) for bowl eligibility. Blue raiders could be really tuned up with rice and ODU before wky. Wky on the other hand will likely be dead after playing marshal, FAU, Arkansas, so miss. Before this game. 

Likely losses:
@FIU. Road game. Panthers should be focused on toppers as they just have New Hampshire on deck. 

Louisville (neutral site). Louisville should flex their muscles and win my a couple of scores. 

UAB. Blazers a better team overall. Super soft schedule with Alabama state, Akron and so Alabama. Blazers could be 7-0 before going to IT. 

Army. Tough test here. And not much time to prepare for the option. Army is in another class if team here. 

@Marshall. “Rivalry game” if you must. Marshall projected at the top the division, wky at the bottom. Week 5 of 7 strait for toppers. 

FAU. FAU is in a b2b road stretch. This is game 2. Lowly ODU before it. They should be the class of CUSA east if they avoid injury and lane kiffin hooliganism. 


@arkansas. Ark is a good bully in this spot. Hogs should be starving for a win after playing auburn, tide and miss st. 5/5 times in this spot ark has won, covering spreads 4/5 instances (Tulsa LY, Texas state 2016, uT Martin 2015, UAB 2014...non cover in 2017 vs CCU. Still won). 


@so miss. Eagles playing for cUSA west title? 1st trip to haitesburg for tops. Are they out of contention at this point?  

I see 8 likely losses, one likely win and 3 coin flips. 

They likely will win one they shouldn’t and lose one they shouldn’t. 

At 5.0 this is a play. Takes 6-6 to. Beat you. 

Tough CUSA west draw, two power 5 + army in the non conf. Makes this schedule really tough for them. 

Under 5.0 RSW. 

16
steponaduck replied to 2019 NCAA FB RSW PLAYS
in College Football
1st play... favorite play of the RSW Card. 

Nevada Wolf Pack under 6.5 wins -140. 

Likely wins :
Weber St
UTEP
San Jose St

Likely losses: 
Purdue. Rondale Moore will rip this secondary to shreds. PU needs to start out hot to have bowl aspirations. 
Oregon. Nevada 16-60 vs p12 foes, although they have had recent success. 
@utah state 
@sdsu- Aztecs off a bye and playing with BIG revenge from LY
@fresno st. Fresno just a better MWC team overall, and fres has Jose on deck, so likely a max effort from Fresno state 
Here. 

Toss ups:
Hawaii. Play 5th st week here, bows face 3 p12 and univ of central ark. So should be prepared for Nevada to open conf. Play. Could torch Nevada secondary

@wyoming. Wyo bye week on deck so should see max effort from the pokes. Really a must win for wyo to go bowling. 

New Mexico: who really knows. They were decimated with injuries and in the middle of a huge offensive philosophy change. See Ga Tech. Tough to call. Likely pack win 

UNLV. Nevada playing with revenge. Rivalry game. Might not matter as pack could be 5-6 playing for bowl elig. Or 4-7. Likely not 6-5. Rebs QB finally plays up to potential this year??

Nevada suffered some big losses this year, QB Ty Gangi. WR Mannix ( big loss. Lots of clutch catches from him in RZ, on third down and many explosive plays. Really good WR Xfer to Texas Tech), loss three secondary starters. New kicker and long snapper. 

They broke through last year. I look for regression back toward their mean. 6-6 is absolute top in my opinion on the wolf pack. I could see 5-7. I could see 3-3 or 4-2 in their F6, but three road games out of 4 is a tough stretch for them. 


Under 6.5 regular season wins. 
16
FAU. 

9
steponaduck created a topic 2019 NCAA FB RSW PLAYS
in College Football
Beautiful day to you all. 

My RSW card will be out soon, with reasoning. I love regular season wins, my favorite thing to bet in college FB. 

Good luck this year guys. 

  Until our wallets are full!!

16
Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:

Looking at Clemson's schedule....Its so weak and they play a 12 game regular season schedule..Surprised the win total is not at 12......They are almost a lock to reach the ACC ship game..... Their toughest game will be A&M @ home and they could still lose that game and easily get tot 12 wins..


22
Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:

Looking at Clemson's schedule....Its so weak and they play a 12 game regular season schedule..Surprised the win total is not at 12......They are almost a lock to reach the ACC ship game..... Their toughest game will be A&M @ home and they could still lose that game and easily get tot 12 wins..

You clearly don’t know how this works. 

They are called regular season win totals. 

Only the 12/13 Reg Ssn games count. 




22
steponaduck replied to South Dakota State
in College Basketball
 

GL today sir 
5
steponaduck replied to South Dakota State
in College Basketball
SO DAK ST is soooo streaky. 

If they aren’t hitting shots, they stink and will likely grind out a 5 point win. 

Also tough shooting in a venue they have never played in. 
5

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