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Thread Author grabbitt Post Entries
CKP22
CKP22
I'm in between what Danrules24 is saying and what Nuscas/Sabbathen are saying.  In following this thread, there are conversations quite often about how people manage their money in different ways to make sure they're never risking a ton of money.  So it has been discussed many times that people fold their losses from 3 straight losses into a new series or that people never risk more than X dollars on a game.  So strictly looking at how a Martingale budget would have you down big isn't necessarily accurate.  That being said, if we're hard pressed to find anyone on the thread that follows the 6 game chase, why is the 583-2 record relevant?  The 583-2 record strictly says that 2 teams ever have lost a 6 game homestand (of teams that qualify).  If nobody here is chasing for 6 games, why are we discussing that record?  Wouldn't a record for the first 2 or 3 games be much more relevant if that's all people are chasing?  CKP always posts how many Game 1 wins and Game 2 wins and etc. for the current season, but I'd like to see that for the entire history of this system if this system isn't designed to go for a 6 game chase.  Saying "this team will win one of the next 6 games" seems to only be relevant if someone is chasing them for 6 games.  If nobody is chasing that team for 6 games who cares if they win game 4 or 5 or 6 when they've already lost you for that series.
CKP22
CKP22
It's 5 games for the double dip but 6 games for starting a regular home stand chase?
Danrules24
Danrules24
Hi Danrules24

Would you mind pointing me in the direction of where these losses occurred and let me know if you've tinkered or altered your position in any way based on those losses?  
CKP22
CKP22
I see that the Texas Rangers are the only loss this system had - are there any modifications that people are using to account for the dreaded losing streak that kills your bankroll??  For example, I saw someone mention they use a labby line and never chase past a game 3 loss.  Would love to hear any ideas
CKP22
CKP22
rjoine, I've been following this system since the break and have made exactly $180.  That is with a "unit" of $20 and includes all the double dips that have been mentioned.  And the first chase started like 18 games ago too so there's an average of $10/day.  

Be careful - it may sound like you don't win that much each chase, but if you end up on game 3 or 4 of chasing a big favorite like the dodgers, you could be risking a ton of money.  

I like to pair this with Danrules24's fade system as well as some extra chases of my own - although the only losses I've had this year are from chases that I've chosen to add (Brewers @ Pirates and Rockies @ Cardinals are 2 recent losses I've had)
Danrules24
Danrules24
Thanks for your response guys.  I've been doing a standard chase system with regular 3+ game series and almost always target the Reds when they're on the road.  They've been swept on the road 5 times!!

Anyway, because of this system and CKP's system, I've expanded to considering home stands and away trips as opposed to just the basic 3+ game series against one opponent.  And it's been profitable.


Thanks all and much appreciated for the system Danrules24
Danrules24
Danrules24
Question - how do you feel about adding the Reds to this system?  They have a .400 win % overall (42-63) and a .327 win % on the road (17-35).  At the All Star Break, their win % was .443 (39-49) - just over the threshold to be included.  In my opinion, they seem to fall into the category of tanking teams after the ASB (they've traded away a few players and are 3-14 since the ASB).  I'm not asking you to amend your system here to include the Reds; but since you know this system better than anyone, I'm wondering whether you are opposed to me personally including the Reds based on your experience with this system.  


TLDR: I'm planning to include the Reds in this system but would love some veteran insight into whether this is a bad idea.
nfl_huskers
nfl_huskers
I don't see any potential plays today.  Cardinals, Mets, Astros, Indians, Blue Jays, Nats are the only away favorites (and it looks like it'll stay that way).  Without even getting to check whether the total is >= 8, the win percentages don't work out.  
Cardinals (48%)/Reds (45%)
Mets (44%)/Rangers (46%)
Astros (72%)/Royals (43%)
Indians (53%)/Rockies (61%)
Blue Jays (48%)/Athletics (44%)
Nationals (64%)/Dodgers (59%)
w1s3k1d
w1s3k1d
Quote Originally Posted by w1s3k1d:

I want to get peoples opinions on this. This has been very profitable for me over the last couple of years. I wanted to know what you all thought about it and see if there was any way to improve it. This only works on sports where the PL/RL is always -1.5 (so MLB and NHL).

The idea is to bet on opposite teams in a parlay bet, grabbing + odds for every pick. 

For example, let's say you have Red Sox vs Yankees and then Cubs vs Cardinals and the odds look like this:

Red Sox: ML -160, RL +130
Yankees: ML +130, RL -200

Cubs: ML -170, RL +120
Cardinals: ML +135, RL -190

I would parlay all 4 possible winning combinations, taking the + odds for every pick:

Parlay 1: Sox RL, Cubs RL
Parlay 2: Sox RL, Cards ML
Parlay 3: Yanks ML, Cubs RL
Parlay 4: Yanks ML, Cards ML

The only way you would lose is if either the Sox and/or Cubs win by exactly 1 run. Chances of winning are very high, but your profits aren't going to be that high depending on the amount you bet on it and also if you add something else to each parlay. 

If you were to put $50 on each of the 4 parlays, you'd spend $200 total and make between $253 ($50 profit) and $270 ($70 profit) if you win. 

I tend to add the biggest ML fave to each parlay, even if it's at -300. That will noticeably increase the payout.

The system pays more in NHL, but there's more risk because goals don't come around as often as runs in MLB. Even + line between ML and RL in MLB is about +130. In NHL, that's about +160.

I don't have any results handy but I plan on starting this year as soon as the regular season kicks off!

Sorry, but I don't see any mention of win percentages in post #1.  Maybe it was discussed later and you could point me in that direction?
nfl_huskers
nfl_huskers
how strict should we be on where we get odds from?

like mike7002, I have TB at at -110 and -1.5(+140) which allows them to fit all criteria.  I use a local book so I have no clue where the odds comes from.

What I'd like some advice on is whether this makes sense for me to play?  For example, our odds are clearly different or else you'd be making the TB play right now. Since you are basing this system on your odds, should we be only making plays when your odds say to make them (since that is what the system is based on)?  AKA would you advise against playing this system with any odds other than the consensus odds?
w1s3k1d
w1s3k1d
Hello and thank you to everyone who's been contributing to this thread.  I'm sure w1s3k1d got busy so maybe I can kickstart this back up.

A question I had, if there were 4 games that fit, would you pick the 3 you prefer or split it into 2 2-team parlays?

Today there are 4 games that fit the bill:
LAD RL +145 @ STL ML +101 (o/u 8)
CHC RL +115 @ SD ML +132 (o/u 8.5)
NYY RL +110 @ BAL ML +132 (o/u 8.5)
DET RL +120 @ KC ML +121 (o/u 9)

Also, nfl_huskers, have you run any tests on whether this is profitable over an entire season?  I see that you're running very helpful tests on the probability of certain outcomes, I'm just wondering whether you've seen anything to suggest that this is a good profit.  I always wonder about profit when I see that a successful night (straight bets) results in .2 units won whereas an unsuccessful night results in 2 units lost.  So you'd need to win 10 times to account for every loss.  Any insight would be appreciated and if I can be of service in tracking this system I'm happy to help
Oneplayperday11
Oneplayperday11
for some reason I didn't see all the posts of people jumping down your throat already when i typed that lol

don't mind stopthemadness either.  i see him all over the forums talking garbage to people who are just trying to help others by giving out winning picks for free
Oneplayperday11
Oneplayperday11
good looks last night on the yankees I certainly wouldn't have put my money on them winning by 2 with how they've been playing... 

that being said, you are 1-0 last night, not 2-0.  people are obviously very strict about record rules here so I just wanted to point that out so you could correct it before everyone and their mother jumps down your throat about it

koreatine
koreatine
i requested you but you never responded.  I also can't find your account anymore... you still running through twitter?
ff99l1
ff99l1
NBA Betting / NBA TOTAL / View Post
sorry man I didn't really think this was a big request or anything.  it would add like 2 seconds to your posting process.  Of course i appreciate you posting to covers I just didn't think this was something that you'd consider leading to a slippery slope of people requesting things from you.  No worries I'll drop it
ff99l1
ff99l1
NBA Betting / NBA TOTAL / View Post
Jeez there are a lot of insanely impatient people here huh? Didn't ask for the world simply asked for a few extra numbers in the thread title. Sorry to waste so much of everyone's time!
ff99l1
ff99l1
NBA Betting / NBA TOTAL / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by ff99l1:

My friend there is a date on every page, just look at the top of each a little to the left you can't miss it., gl,ff

Yeah but that's the date of the most recent post and most of the time someone (like me right now haha) posts in the thread for your pick from the previous night.  Like this thread is dated 3/22 but the pick was for 3/21
Tune2ime
Tune2ime
helping you bump since people are commenting on the other one!
ff99l1
ff99l1
NBA Betting / NBA TOTAL / View Post
Love your picks!  Have been following for quite some time and making some $$$$ so thank you!! Would it be too much trouble to ask you to put a date on your threads?  It would just help distinguish when you have a new play out so I don't need to check old ones repeatedly.  No worries if not I'll be checking either way... just a suggestion
GIANFRANCO1114
GIANFRANCO1114
that was completely outrageous... i doubted the system and took the under cause that was so many points.   thought i was in the clear and then the final score popped up.  oof
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