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Target2million
Target2million

Quote Originally Posted by Buckleys:

The favourites for the next couple of games are starting to look like very good value. Mainly because the results appear random at the moment. Hawks have too many injuries. Melbourne are giving up huge scores. It would be a brave person who goes with either team.

The link didn't work before so reposting. ABC article which shows the team tipped to win the wooden spoon on top of the ladder. Every team has won a game before the end of Round 4. It's not the game... it's THIS season.

Target2million
Target2million

 

 

The favourites for the next couple of games are starting to look like very good value. Mainly because the results appear random at the moment. Hawks have too many injuries. Melbourne are giving up huge scores. It would be a brave person who goes with either team.

AussieDownUnder
AussieDownUnder

Already on it. Glad we are on the same side.

Target2million
Target2million

Quote Originally Posted by Buckleys:

Quote Originally Posted by Buckleys:

I got Sunwolves +24.5 for $1.40 and added OKC -7.5 for a parlay
  I grabbed a live bet GWS -7.5. I'll grab Melb -15.5 small.

 

Freo beat GWS by 30 as 30 point dogs. an_beatup 

I'm not posting until it levels out. I am giving all my profits back with AFL bets.

Target2million
Target2million

Quote Originally Posted by Buckleys:

I got Sunwolves +24.5 for $1.40 and added OKC -7.5 for a parlay

 

moneybag

I grabbed a live bet GWS -7.5.

I'll grab Melb -15.5 small.

 

AussieDownUnder
AussieDownUnder

Quote Originally Posted by AussieDownUnder:

I think OKC can win this game by 12+ points.

an_clap

Target2million
Target2million

Quote Originally Posted by Target2million:

Quote Originally Posted by Target2million:

Nothing going our way... f...ing chiefs...Sunwolves. +20.5.    1.50Mel.  +6.5.                 1.35Parlay. @2.02
no f....ing way to beat AFL mate....its worse than NBA...see problem is every AFL teams got more than 30 players.. so we dont know much about these players..  may be ausis knows... but we can not  get lots infors about players..not like NRL atleast we know who  are the players...how the earth  west coast lost like garbage today.. even kangaroos...stay away from AFL mate.   unless play off..

 

22 players on field, not 30. It's not THAT hard. NFL has more. 

NBA has a long season. It's like baseball where they will be ok with losing games because it's such a long season. 

WCE played like that last week in the second half which was one of the games I was pretty sure of. They covered the full game line then changed. Port have been better this year. My first big game that I lost was when Port beat Melbourne in the first round. Port are much better this year and Melbourne much worse.

AFL games are reliable usually. I've done well with player bets that are often more reliable than games. I agree that there's not much value at the moment. 

Target2million
Target2million

AFL is too close for value this year. It's got pockets but it's not a profitable year. I'm just breaking even and losing when I'm confident. I have been very confident for two games this year and both lost. 

 

The WCE Port game is going to be sloppy. It's been wet overnight and might be wet during the game. It's unlikely to be a game with clean disposals. 

Saturday games - GWS will thump Freo. the line is about right for Canberra.

Melbourne should get a big win against the Saints. I would say that's the best option for the round.

Richmond v Swans. Close game with a lean to the over.

Sunday - Dogs Blues... Dogs should cover. 

Crows GC - Crows should win at home. Should also go over. GC should put up a bit of a fight but are about to run out of puff.

Monday - Cats and Hawks. Always a great game but Cats are a much better side this year. The cats should cover.

 

I got Sunwolves +24.5 for $1.40 and added OKC -7.5 for a parlay

 

AussieDownUnder
AussieDownUnder

an_cheers

Target2million
Target2million

Just an FYI - it's really wet and windy for the AFL game in Perth. It might dry up but in 6 hours but don't expect good margins or high scores. 

Got the GS under. GS hopefully slow down.

Josh09782
Josh09782

AFL isn't easy thia year. Nice hit.

Buckleys
Buckleys
Other / AFL Round 4 / View Post

AFL is having another random season. I thought it would level out now but I was wrong.

WCE were up by 30 just after the half and stopped. Poor form but that’s betting.

Buckleys
Buckleys
Other / AFL Round 4 / View Post

Pendles should have a great game. I'm picking him up with over 26.5 disposals.

Buckleys
Buckleys
Other / AFL Round 4 / View Post

What a wacky opening to the AFL. Maybe I should have held off until Round 5.

 

Pies down to 23.5, mainly because of Beams' headache. I'll take that. Glad I waited for the late changes.

Playing that WCE line now at -35.5.

I can't find a matchup that Freo wins. Maybe their ruck but WCE should win easy. The weather will be great for footy. The derby is often a real hard game but this one is a real mismatch. I don't understand why the line isn't bigger which sometimes means the bookies know something that I don't. Picked Fyfe to be out... Brad Hill will say he's ok and he probably is if it's just a corkie... but maybe not. Playing WCE big. I'll back off for a couple of rounds if I don't this one right.

Buckleys
Buckleys
Other / AFL Round 4 / View Post

Thursday night

Sydney will be ramping up. They usually start slow and this year is the same. They won their first game so watch them get on a roll. Dees will lose this one and win the following week against the Saints.

Friday night

Pies bounce back. There's no reason to pick the doggies.

Saturday

Geelong and Giants will be a great game. Don't pick a side. Just enjoy the game.

Brissy at the MCG? They probably will win.

Port at home against the Tigers. Home team advantage.

North v Adelaide. Two teams that should be in better form but aren't. Marvel is gives neither an advantage. Sit out.

WCE thump Freo by 60. Get on the train early before the line goes up when Fyfe is out. 

Sunday

Suns and Carlton... who knows. Before Round 1, it was a line of over 30 but now it's close to even yet Carlton haven't won a game.

Saints and Hawks... Hawks have a slight advantage but depends on which Saints team shows up.

 

Obvious pics are:

Sydney -4.5

Pies -31.5 and

WCE -33.5 (Max bet)

Target2million
Target2million

I was watching the Bris AFL game and I was worried when they were losing by 10 with 10 minutes to go. Their last 5 minutes was great. 

 

While I think you'll win, most people would cash out with the payout.

AussieDownUnder
AussieDownUnder

an_cheers

AussieDownUnder
AussieDownUnder

I took Over 228.5 live... didn't expect them to roll over at the end. Damn!

AussieDownUnder
AussieDownUnder

an_clap

KempDunkLister
KempDunkLister

Quote Originally Posted by rod_steel:

64 points in the first halfWho is brave enough to hit that 2H OVER of 112.5?

 

very few games go under 167 when the original total is 216. 49 points under the projection means no one can predict this one.

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