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Thread Author Buckleys Post Entries
Buckleys
Buckleys

Losing by 8 points when Melbourne kick 7.15 wasn't the plan. 4.10 in the second half. thumbs_down

 

Buckleys
Buckleys

Stephenson 1.3... should have been 3.1 

Garlett passing from in front, 40 out

I'm adding some more on over 150. The game style is right but the skills have to improve. They can't get worse by Melbourne. 

Buckleys
Buckleys

I've been quiet because there's been some really variable results. 

Swans are getting better, Tigers too many injuries. GC getting back to expectations. Roos and Blues changing coaches to mess things up.

 

I think the Pies win this by 20-30. I think Melbourne are going to play better but I think the Pies respond to the unexpected loss against the Dockers in Melb. I think it's the reality check they needed. They were consistently playing the 4Qtr 3 goals better than their opponents and lost the contested ball. 

I see this game being a free flowing game. Having May and Lever back will help the rebound (if they aren't rusty) but it's not really going to stop Cox on the lead or DeGoey. Melb have been leaking goals. Melb played one of their better games last week because they were hitting targets inside 50. They'll have move the ball quickly to avoid Darcy and Howe intercepting. 

If I'm reading this game correctly, this will be a free flowing game. I expect a total score of 185 (105-80) so I'm going big on the over 162.5. 

 

Collingwood haven't scored 100 in their last 2 games. The other "blockbuster" game was the ANZAC day game which was 69-73. I think Melb give up bigger scores than the Bombers. Melbourne has also been generally poor with goal kicking (but last week kicked more goals than points).

capperchris1
capperchris1

Quote Originally Posted by capperchris1:

R12Geelong -9.5 ($1.91 Beteasy)

 

I really liked that one and was on it without seeing it. 

I can't see Carlton beating Brissy. It's about time they start pushing looking to next season and just playing kids without looking at the scoreboard. Brissy are pretty good and at Marvel are the better team.

Target2million
Target2million

Quote Originally Posted by Target2million:

R99,   i have saved your money mate.. i told you brumbies to win free money...  they won  26-21.. what a week for NRL.. WOW   sofar this week all 6 home teams won and cover..I had good feeling AFL lions to cover and they did..lets go bulls -9.5   free money

 

well done on the Lions. I think that the Cunningham helped you.

I got hurt by the nba. Blazers to win by 3.5 was one of my biggest bets for a long time. For it to lose by .5 is probably the thing that hurts most. 

Gonna take a break for a while. I hope you got on the Roos. 

Buckleys
Buckleys
Other / AFL Round 7 / View Post

Quote Originally Posted by Buckleys:

Adding Grundy over 112.5 dream team points. >$2. I know they will try to negate him but the key is tackles. At Marvel, he'll do well.

 

rested him for the second half of 4th Qtr. Didn’t expect that.

1-1

Buckleys
Buckleys
Other / AFL Round 7 / View Post

Adding

Grundy over 112.5 dream team points. >$2.

I know they will try to negate him but the key is tackles. At Marvel, he'll do well.

Target2million
Target2million

Quote Originally Posted by Target2million:

Quote Originally Posted by Buckleys:

Phi will lose one at home. Not free money mate.
lost of people backing toronto just becacuse for normal season results mate.. when its come to playoff  just forget all past resualts..today game is completly differant  game..
Quote Originally Posted by Target2million:

Quote Originally Posted by Buckleys:

Phi will lose one at home. Not free money mate.
lost of people backing toronto just becacuse for normal season results mate.. when its come to playoff  just forget all past resualts..today game is completly differant  game..

 

Well done. I couldn't pass on the live bet of -9.5 an_burn_money.

Buckleys
Buckleys
Other / AFL Round 7 / View Post

Port and Pies at Marvel. I think the line is about right because both teams can take the game. Marvel is a fast track. I would think the over 167.5 is best.

 

Dees and Hawks at the G. Can't expect either team to be great. Have to look at player exotics on this one.

Saints at Giants... Giants will control the game. The weather will play a part in this game so I'm not too keen on that line.

Swans at Lions... Lions should win but another where rain could change the game. In the dry, Lions. In the wet, close because the swans have bigger bodies around the ball.

Doggies and Richmond at Marvel... should be a good game. Tigers lots of injuries. Should be interesting. Doggies are in with a chance here.

Suns at Eagles... there's likely to be rain in the morning but should be ok at game time. It's just not going to be a pretty game and that line is high. 

 

Carlton and North at Marvel... Carlton showed good signs against Hawks in Tassie but that second half let them down. A footy coach once told me you start the next game how you finished your last. North need this more so I expect them to get this by mid 20s. Ben Brown is due for a bag.

Geelong and Bombers at the G... both teams are in decent form but like last week, the Cats should show they are better. Cats by 30.

Freo at Crows... Crows are building in form. Freo away. Crows win but the margin depends on them. They should cover but it might be close.

 

Big Bet

North -8.5 (I got them ML early in the week then again at this)

Value bets 

Port and Pies O167.5

Cats -14.5 

Target2million
Target2million

Phi will lose one at home. Not free money mate.

RicciAlfonsini
RicciAlfonsini

win Great work RA.

Target2million
Target2million

Just locked in Roos to beat Carlton. It's gonna happen.

Buckleys
Buckleys

I'm just observing that OT is statistically around over 5% of NBA games. I'm not sure about the variance in finals.

 

So far, there's been 44 games in the finals this year without an overtime. 

The Unders have been hitting well. I prefer to go with trends but we are due a couple of big scores and for an OT.

I'm expecting the 76ers to push a couple of overs in this series. OVER 220 tonght.

clover

Target2million
Target2million

Great call on Manly. Both the Manly and Tigers games were scary at the start but came through. Well done.

 

I'm expecting Sydney to become desperate and start playing better. Buddy out last week was significant. Brissy showed they are still a young side and really didn't play that well in the first half. It is going to be wet in Brissy all week. Sydney have more mature, stronger bodies. Too many variables so I would wait until before the game to check the teams and weather.

I think there is value in the Sunday games. North, Cats and Crows are all good options depending on teams.

GWS should cover but the combo of Canberra and 4.5 goals concern me. Pies and Tigers should win but I expect those games to be closer than the line. Gold Coast have too many points for a WCE team that lost their mojo since half time in that Freo game. Also, Melb to be close to even money is a mystery. Like the Crows last week, there's gotta be a reason so I expect Melb to beat the Hawks. 

 

NBA finals are always about the Under. They inflate the scores during the regular season because they get paid on stats. Defense wins championships. Spurs home unders in finals have been great for a decade.

Raptors and Blazers at home should cover. I'm like the Rockets to keep GS to lower scores. I don't like any under for the Bucks even against the Celts. I expect Giannis to respond in his next game otherwise that's all he will hear for the next year. MVP who got shut down by the Celts.

midnightprowl
midnightprowl

I'm not a fan of sportsbet. Their limits are annoying.

 

Target2million
Target2million

Quote Originally Posted by Target2million:

gs is leading 3-2 now.. they dont have to win this game.. they may be happy to go home and win final game..  few days ago hou did same things..clipers +11.5/under 233.5  @ 2.80 tigers win   free money bri win        free moneyl

 

I went with your tigers and broncos. I was worried when the tigers were 0-14 so doubled up on the broncos.

Sorry I couldn't help with the AFL.

Target2million
Target2million

Quote Originally Posted by Buckleys:

Following with the Bulldogs tonight.

 

Thanks gents.

Re the Saints, home team 4-1 vs interstate team 2-3. Only -2.5? I'm not going near it but good luck.

Target2million
Target2million

Following with the Bulldogs tonight.

Don't like the Swans in the AFL. I would suggest allocating those funds to other bets. Still don't have an opinion on the Saints game. Too many variables.

ActionMagnet
ActionMagnet

Both teams are strong at home and average away. I see the Spurs lift at home with a strong team performance. Joker is the best player on the court but the Spurs won't want to lose their last game of the season at home. 

 

Isn't the most likely scenario two home wins? 

I didn't expect the Clippers would take two games from GS at home. Crazy stuff happens in the NBA at times.

 

Target2million
Target2million

Quote Originally Posted by Target2million:

I’m leaning  swans  and st kilda..this week..

 

Before the season, I thought St Kilda would take the wooden spoon. I can't put money on them. If it was at the MCG, I would give St Kilda a chance but it's too even at Marvel.

Swans should start getting into form but again, I think GWS are the better side at the moment. I think it will be close so the line is a decent option.

 

I got the last two correct so hopefully it levels out. I expect the Pies to be too strong for the Bombers. It is always a good game but the Pies should get the win at the MCG. Bombers are better at Marvel. 

Port will win but don't know the margin.

I like Brissy to woop Gold Coast. GC showed against Adelaide that they have done enough already to consider their season a success. I expect them to get real bad, real quick.

All the other games should be close and I can't see much value. Cats are most likely to cover with a good margin.

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