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matt-e-matticle
matt-e-matticle

Quote Originally Posted by matt-e-matticle:

Quote Originally Posted by BlueStar57:

Is there a system in play here?
Hey mate, yes many.

what he meant to say was, in this forum, we outline the SYSTEM or STRATEGY to how the wagers are selected.  otherwise, you're just touting your picks.

Danrules24
Danrules24

Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Monday - LA Clippers +13.5, game 2
hell of a comeback. moneybag

Thasian
Thasian

https://www.covers.com/forum/ViewThread/102439289/beat-the-sweep-system

there are a few extra perameters on this system that you might want to consider applying.  if nothing else, worth a read

cisco
cisco

Who is this other Dutch?

jaker122
jaker122

Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Apparently Dutch and I had the same thought on betting and were posting at same time. Hahahaha

yep.

jaker122
jaker122

the only feedback i'd have, would be to consider a slower, more gradual and longer chase since the lowest a 2-team dog payout could be is on two teams that are +105 each. 

a $20 bet would yield $64.05

a $25 bet on the b game would yield, again w/ both at +105, would pay $80.06, net of the 'a' game loss of $20, that's $60.06 which is still a 3 unit win. 

$30 on the 'c' game would yield $96.07, minus $45 for a & b losses, is a $51.07 win on the chase.  or roughly 2.5units

$40 on the 'd' game would yield $128.10, minus $75 for prior 3 losses is still a $53.10 win on the chase.  still, roughly 2.5 units

point is, i played 4 games to get to "2x" whereas your progression jumped there fast, and still yielded over 2.5 units.

*all above assume +105 on both teams.  payouts could be hire depending on odds.

i'll try to quickly run it to pay approx 2.5 on the chase:

$55 would pay $176.14 minus $115 = $61.14 (over 3 units)

$70 would pay $224.18 minus $170 = $54.18 (roughly 2.5 units)

$95 would pay $304.24 minus $240 = $64.24 (over 3 units)

so continuing my above point, i've gotten to play 7 games and i'm not even at "5x" where you are with your progression on game 4, all while still yielding between 2.5 and 3 units.  and again, that's using the lowest possible "dog" number of +105 on both teams

kenkean89
kenkean89

Quote Originally Posted by kenkean89:

Alright, tough January overall with quite a few bad beats. Apparently, their is a rather large gap between the haves and have nots in college hoops to date this season. I will continue to monitor this system and see if things turn around; at this point may be worth fading these home dogs as the road faves continue to cover at a high rate.....

I was wondering the other day if conference scheduling may play into this.  i know the AAC (American) has switched to a model where they want to have the top tiered teams all playing each other later in the season, meaning the 'good' teams are mostly playing patsies in January and early February.  they do this in attempt to have the top tier teams have better records coming into the stretch, and also to have those premier games fresh on the minds of the committee for at-large bids.  don't know about other conferences, but that seems to be the case.

Roggs05
Roggs05

following along.  tried to find this when bowl season started.  enjoyed following the last few years.

vankiep_0007
vankiep_0007

Quote Originally Posted by vankiep_0007:

Quote Originally Posted by LoveCFB1_:

Do you think the rain showers affects the scoring and total much? Light winds though! Do you lean a side? Guessing Ohio... Thanks Van!
The weather will be fine by the gm time according by Don Bet site. Hopefully, both teams will score enough ov53.5 tonight Frisco Bowl in SD!!

FYI, Don Best's Weather page for this game is showing the weather for San Diego, CA.  the Frisco Bowl is in Frisco, TX (north of Dallas). 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/frisco-tx/75033/hourly-weather-forecast/346100

that shows the rain starting at 6pm and progressing to thunderstorms at 8pm (central time) which would be middle of 2nd quarter.  local weatherman also had a similar report this morning and i can see the clouds blowing in from the south out of my office window right now.

Danrules24
Danrules24

Quote Originally Posted by jaime2309:

Dan, not sure if this has been asked but have you ever tried doing a round robin with this? Just a thought.

 

when i first started following this prior to last season i read every page.  i even tried some contra strategies of my own.  just about everything's been considered.  it works just fine the way it is, even with this year's loss. 

Danrules24
Danrules24

played for the texas rangers too.

Danrules24
Danrules24

an_nailbiter

Danrules24
Danrules24

at over 100 pages, i will say this one is a lot of info to sift through for changes. 

also, i'll add for anyone new - just follow dan.  don't question it.  sometimes we have played slight dogs in the past.  usually if low in the chase count - i.e. A or B game in the chase.  best thing to do is just be patient and don't try to force plays. 

Danrules24
Danrules24

Quote Originally Posted by sport247:

Last time on this.  I appreciate informative posts and questions. The concentration post above is a waste of my/your precious time to open this thread just for that sh#t.

Don't be a buzzkill. Enjoy the wins and thank Dan with a an_cheers

Danrules24
Danrules24

Quote Originally Posted by elketa1252:

Hey Dan,Do you know which sportsbook would be good to use this strategy in? I would like to try this system and I would like to know which sportsbook would not block me from winning "too much"? Supposedly  I have heard that accounts get blocked once they see you are winning to much?Sorry if there is a section explaning this and what sportsbook do this practice and which don't. If there is any, just paste the link and I will do my research myself. Thanks a lot.

shouldn't matter.  the system has plenty of losses that will reflect on your account activity.  you will have up and down weeks.  if they do review your acct, they'll probably pick up that you chase your losses and let it slide b/c books LOVE people who chase losses. 

IIRC Dan's in vegas and uses william hill, among others.  find a local bookie if you're worried about offshore.

 

Danrules24
Danrules24

Quote Originally Posted by castorjouflu:

All right thank you for all of your replies, this system is indeed very much on point. I am actually following a martingale based system for soccer. I just found out about the tony stoffo money management technique and the results for my system are better with it than the martingale strategy, so yeah I will just follow along! I am just starting on NHL betting. Did you all start with a 740$ bankroll too?

starting bankroll should be 74x whatever your base unit is, and that might be different for everyone based on their overall bankroll available "to lose"

to answer your question though, yes, last year started w/ $740

Danrules24
Danrules24

Quote Originally Posted by castorjouflu:

All right. Another question, you've been doing this for 4 seasons now, on average, what are the odds that you get on each bet? I'm asking because I'm curious to see what the returns would look like if we used a martingale strategy instead.

google “Vegas insider parlay calculator” 

 

Balage87
Balage87

i think i get the underlying "unicorn" theory being applied here, and it makes sense for a chase system.  where i'm confused is on this most recent with the Kings and Jets.  how do the Kings qualify here?  maybe i'm just not fully understanding it. 

 

Danrules24
Danrules24

worth noting that there is a midday game tomorrow.

zebrakiller
zebrakiller

Quote Originally Posted by dt500:

whats the system?

"old man yells at cloud" is what it's loosely referred to.

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