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Juventus/Atalanta - final home match, celebrating Scudetto, our womens team TOO  (so we DID pull the 'double. laughing').  Allegri leaving. Giorgio out so the BTTS is "in", but its too juiced.  Atalanta coming in off an emotional letdown but need points, any kind of points. but now it looks as if their HC is heading off to Roma next year. tho im not in that locker room, 'me's thinks theirs seasons unravellings fasts'. i cant remember when we've lost our final home match, its been a while. but if there was ever a time........i smell a 'draw'.... this would be "nice" to help prevent our fiercest rivals from getting the CL slot. our Ultras would love nothing more than to roll over and prevent Milan/Roma into CL. just shove that broomstick waaaaay up in there. in any case. 
BTTS + over 2.5 @evens.

fun play: looks like Max going with Dybala/Kean/Christian up front for his last match. something everyone thought he SHOULD HAVE done 2 months ago. (laughing)
Dybala to score anytime @+180 - if theres one player on our roster whom is probably happy with this news its him. practically need a calculator to figure out how many times hes been in Allegris doghouse through the years. banging one home in the last match would be heavenly for him.   

Parma/Fiorentina - Parma have won just once in past 16, Fior are winless in 14 and had their summer vacations booked weeks ago.  Viola havent scored more than a goal in 7 straight, Parma forgot how to play defense; but a win in their final homestand ensure safety next season. books got the prices messed up.
Parma to win @+220

****i really SHOULD stay the h*ll away from this one and simply 'hedge' next week**** 
Empoli/Torino - Empoli promoted this year & trying to fight their way out of relegation to stay (and I never, ever, underestimate that type of motivation), Torino wants europe slot...... badly.  for the home side, with Genoa set to grab all 3 on Sat, theyll most likely need to win at all costs here (keeping in mind they have a trip to Inter team desperate to nail down that UCL spot the final wknd in San Siro) so Empoli knows a draw will do them no good here.  for Torino, its fairly simple, to have any chance of europe they MUST win their remaining 2 games and then discuss the 'help' scenarios. so the Serie A 'draw' specialists on the road are going to have to change their tune on Sunday. Belotti has been on fire the past month, either scoring or assisting; actually need 4 more from him to hit a future but will happily accept that 6th slot instead.  bottom line is a 1-1 draw is the absolute worst thing for BOTH these clubs. i like these prices considering the situation.   Empoli/Torino over 2.5 @-110 

Euro U17 Champ:
Italy to win @+160, over 3 @evens - been on the train since the start, not stopping now. 

Bunde season-ending "itch" is next:
9-game over 1.5 @+137
9 game over 2.5 @+1351

might have a few others on Sunday if something pops up. have good wknd. 

GL to all 
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Serie B Promotion Playoffs: no guarantees or anything of that sort, but youd think books would 'catch on'; they keep hanging ridiculous juice on the unders with these rounds. this is a single-match 'one-off' between the 5th-8th place clubs in the table. the 'over' hits at an abnormally high rate, and even the BTTS too.

Spezia/Cittadella over 2.5 @+131, BTTS @-105 (friday)
Verona/Perugia over 2.5 @-103, BTTS @-125 (saturday)

this isnt "THE" reason, but its definitely a contributing factor. one of the little 'rules' many might not be aware of (and Serie C does this too) is that if the match ends level after 90; theres no away goal rule. and if it still remains level the team whom advances is the one whom ended up higher in the table ('C' does this too but they dont even bother with the xtra time); and keep in mind the teams whom are at home are the 5th & 6th place squads.  So, anotehr way of looking at this is the home side is basically given a goal even before the starting whistle blows; if it ends 0-0, they advance. 
and before you might go on thinking this is unfair --- actually, its a pretty good rule ---- every single year its a bleeping mid-table dogfight of a traffic jam in Serie B. and if you understand Italy then you'd understand what i mean when I say thats one less thing to worry about in May it gives the clubs incentive to get higher ranking. because sometimes youd need a bottle of aspirin to sort thru all the cr*p that hits the newswires in this league. so kitchen sinks come forward regardless what the scoreline says. we'll see if this year holds true to form. 

Serie A: 4 matches, the rest not even going to bother (for now)

in any case, jumped on this the second Correa scored to go up 2-0 in Coppa. 
Bologna +1/2 @-120 (monday)- theyll (Lazio)  be celebrating for a few days down there; and the Coppa win makes the remaining two matches meaningless - no longer have to worry about that UEL slot (the UCL is out of range). Bologna a point from safety, so this looks about right.


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one more week before my 'Christmas in May'. 
tomorrows a good day to head to the mountains.  phone/fingers/eardrums need a break. 
The Annual "Circus" is in FULL BLOOM again.  Gasperini heading to Roma, Allegri gone,  Palermo sent to Serie C (never mind theyre in the promotion  playoffs. money laudering??  those d*rn Sicilians), DeRossi(Roma) kicked to the curb and their Ultras are all out of sorts (even by their standards) i HATE Roma, but shame on you to treat a man whom gave you 18 years of sweat & blood; players of that stature DESERVE to be able to leave on their own terms. 
sadly to say, its just another "routine" year-ending Drama-Fest and with a media on par with anything England has to offer, its like tossing blood into a shark infested water and telling the sharks to stay in line and take your turn. 

Regarding Allegri, this was just released in the media but most of us 'clued-in' already saw this coming. the media is spinning this nicely.... "a mutual agreement".  its anything but mutual. im not going to go into the details but in a nutshell Max demanded more control within the organization, the bigwigs said   these are extremely powerful people he was messing around with (go ask Conte), not just related to soccer, but within society as well. and there had been growing discontent of his approach towards matches.  its time to move on. board went "all-in" for the CL this year, and when that didnt pan out? heads gotta roll.   our Ultras going to excitedly foam at the mouth Sunday evening. 

anyways, on to the wknd.....

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had this reply typed yesterday, forgot to post. 
yoro,  our kiddies beat France to make the finals  (and a nice payout to boot) 
 people asking about whats going on.(ill get to Max later)  first of all, I hope Atal can hold off those others too. theyve had a great season thus far, and you know whats crazy?   only had 1 win in their first 8 matches and Zapata only had 2 goals heading into December. but one of the talking points with a few buddies is the fact that Atalanta, in those matches where it REALLY mattered (aka financial impact) theyve crumbled under the 'pressure' both times:
but the thing that got a a whole mass of us scratching our heads was :  when Lazio finally scored after the 80th to take the lead.....Gasperini subbed out Zapata.   so, here you are down a goal, in a Cup Final roughly 10-15 minutes remaining,  with the most in-form striker in perhaps ALL of europe since winter break practically, a guy whoms goals have either given you the lead or pulled level 80% of the time (aka, his season was NOT a 'stats stuffer' getting garbage time goals).   and you pull him out???
supporters saying he wa thinking ahead - they do have a visit to Turin this wknd - and pulling level would have extended the match another half hour and perhaps even PK's.   
but when you have a chance to secure a europe slot & the xtra $$$ from it, you do whatever is necessary. and in hindsight as of today, with 2 Rounds remaining, they are still at risk of getting nothing at all. 
but heres the 'kicker' Yoro, reports Gasperini announced hes going to take the job down there at Roma next year.
and he would NEVER do that if he knew Atalanta would be able to retain Zapata during this summer transfer; so put a gun to my head and Zapata might be headed elsewhere too. 

fyi its a  circus out here. 
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Settle  i hope Atalanta wins, they deserve it with the kind of year they're having and love their fans over there.  they have a GREAT fan base.    lots of late movement on Lazio, they have had some really bad luck with this Coppa losing to Juve a few times so theres some sentiment for them as well.    might start taking a peek at all this 'Nordic commotion' coming from you    (after Serie A finishes.... of course) 

elpr  pulling for ya.  and we can both still win our plays too.   
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DTP personally, dont htink you neednt be too concerned with changing any approach due to VAR. kind of had the same feelings when this first started in Serie A; you're going to get it crammed down your throat on a weekly basis come august anyways and youre going to start to realize that it all evens out. last Sunday Christian broke free and banged one in wile it was 0-0, VAR-review, he was offsides by a shoulderblade. jesus.  i find people gripe about it the most when it loses; and perhaps they dont watch all their matches they have plays on but ppl will start realizing you win just as many because of it. 
back to the topic tho'.... agree with your asssessment regarding all these changes lately.  quite a few of them dont even hit the newswires or generate much discussion. (but in my mind) some of them arent deemed necessary, removing the 'away goal' is one of them. but the thing which makes this a 'little' different is we're having coaches/former players speaking out. not owners or those guys in suits sitting behind their desks with one eye looking at the bottom line all the time. it carries a little more weight though I still dont think much will change.  like you said, teams need to adapt. 
remember when Giorgio was out, everybody and their mother was on Juve; Ajax banged in 2.    sorry...  get a better defense.
then Tott returned that favor to them, sorry... get a better defense.
even Pool banged in 3....and then another for good measure.  sorry Barca... get a better defense. 
but thats just me DTP, raised on that stuff.  we won a World Cup building a team from the back... to the front. but the game has evolved and nowadays its become building from the front, to the back.  whether thats good or bad for the sport I really cant say.  but quite a few of these changes are made by people whom have never laced up the boots. 
a frind once told me all the major north american sports installed changes/rules this past decade (whether its was for the good or bad of things I honestly am not qualified to even know). 

by the way, that "PINK' team down south.    just got sent to Serie C....  owners money laundering.     of course theyre going to appeal.  and the guy whom signed off on it felt it wasnt even necessary to wait for the Playoffs and he is about to be introduced to the underword of Italian soccer.  a place where you seriously do not want to be in the crosshairss & stay out of.
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pj     theres always that one match whom 'didn't get the 'memo' we'll see how it goes. 
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another adventure. this time its chimneys and ads enlargening

Serie C Promotion Playoffs: nice to hit the early one at the half. hoping this continues

Catania to win @+130
Arezzo to win @+135, Arezzo/Novara over 2.5 @+140
Feralpisalo to win @+115

Eredivisie FUN Parlay: nailed the season ending 10-teamer to end a profitable season with a bang in the lower division. just one of my annual season-ending 'itches' which I tend to do with a lot of these leagues, as always, lines are juiced/bloated to the moon. missed with the EPL, Bunde is up next this wknd:

9-match over 1.5 @+130 
9-match over 2.5 @+1380
 
Coppa Italia: first of all, its practically impossible to discuss this w/out bringing up the logjam in the Serie A table. its massive. 
Atalanta/Lazio - toss out Atalantas 3-1 win here last week. fyi this is being held @Olimpico, so basically its a "home" game for Lazio. and this is Lazios 5th tine in the finals the past 10 years.  and aside from the European "prize" & bragging rights, this is a pretty huge match with a lot of implications which could affect several other teams in the table.
1) if Atalanta wins AND holds down that 4th UCL slot, this means everything gets 'bumped down' a notch and the 7th place team would end up getting in Europe.
2) if Lazio wins life will become very interesting for Torino/Milan/Roma the final 2 weeks. 

personally, for a LOT of reasons, would love to see Atalanta win the title, prices on the outrights flipped overnight but Lazio are the ones whom remain more juiced to hold the trophy by nights end. and out here, doesnt matter whom the teams are, its bloody tough to beat the same team twice in a 'weeks time'; and never mind it being at THEIR home too. Atalanta on one heck of a joyride the past few months and hope it continues but I think we see xtra time here. prices on the draw are cr*p.  so im taking this instead for fun:
will match be decided in xtra time?  Yes @+500
will match be decided on penalties? Yes @+550 

Golf: as always, another Major = 'Molinari Time'. hometown hero has been a 'MAJOR' cash cow the past 24 months, more than made up for the past 10 years (laughing) tied for 2nd here in '17/6th in '18, won Claret Jug last year, 5th last month in Masters, 4 Top 10 finishes in his last 6 majors and swept his Ryder H2H's. can take him for the next 10 years too and still come out on top.  dont know when this is going to end but we are all going to continue riding this tsunami 'wave' till it stops. whats crazy is hs whole career prior, hes done bad on US soil:

Molinari to win @+2800
Molinari Top 5 @+480
Molinari Top 10 @+290
Molinari Top 20 @+130
Molinari Top European @+800 (the 3 'R' havae me worried: Rory, Rose, & Rahm)

Forza Francesco!!!! 

(Thursday)
Euro U17 Semis: Italy vs France
Italy to win @+220, Italy/France over 3 @+102 

GL to all  
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strange evening yesterday. tho shouldnt be suprised as Monday nighters always bring out the 'weird' stuff. Parma self-destructs after GK misjudges a free kick and Inter 17-0 corners, 70-30 posession and doesnt even concede a shot on target for a 'push'    at least our kiddies won and advanced to the semis  

slow week.... going to tail friends.  

Croatia: 
Hadjuk -2 @+105 - Hadjuk still in running for europa slot with 3 rounds remaining playing an opponent already relegated whom will be rotating with youth and have won all 4 meetings this year by 2+ goals. 

Scotland:
Inverness/Dundee over 2.5 @-105

got one hockey play, finally. this year has been the fewest amount (by far) the entire decade. (NBA too) usually I can get about 30-35, so 18 is barely even half of a 'normal' year. 

Tampa Bay 1st period @+104, over 2 @+106 (L, P)
Winnipeg 1st period @+180, over 1.5 @+102 (L, W)
Boston 1st period @+165, over 1.5 @-120 (W, W)
Nashville 1st period @+150, over 1.5 @+106 (L, L)
Pittsburgh to win 1st period @+160, over 1.5 @-105 (L, W)
Carolina to win 1st period @+125, over 1.5 @-120 (W, L)
San Jose to win 1st period @+170, over 1.5 @+130 (W, W)
Calgary 1st period @+150, over 1.5 @-120 (L, W)
New York to win 1st period @+175, over 1.5 @+140 (W, L)

Carolina to win 1st perid @+175, over 1.5 @evens

GL to all  
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mr_bollox
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Soccer / Sunday EPL / View Post
Boll , nice to see you mention that.  we dont need any reason for a feast (sometimes the sun rising is good enough) but La Festa Della Mamma is a big one.  just dont step in the kitchen, youll get an earful. and when thy Matriarch carries the pot leans over and asks "more?"  she really isnt asking you if you like more food.... you just better nod 'yes' even if ur already on tilt up to your eyeballs in pasta   if shes up before the sun preparing, you better find room. 

by the way.... did your local pay for Aubameyang?   
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Whiskey, had some time, figured id respond as Im watching Parma self-destruct in the 2nd half.  

"Spec, curious of your thoughts on the away goal rule since you mentioned it. Got into an argument with someone who said it should be abolished but I think they away goal rule saves us some from passive first leg matches"

great question you brought up as bunch of us were discussing this the other week. (come to think of it, bunch of us had a BIG argument the other week too. laughing)   its been gaining 'steam' in europe this year again as a few coaches have become outspoken in having it removed.  but if you noticed.... most of them are defensive gurus/masterminds (aka, Simeone from Atletico)

my attitude is I'd rather keep it. its been around for god-knows how long and a part of futbol (at least european) culture forever.  though theres some lower leagues and a few domestic Cups - NOT use it and goes straight to PK's after 90 minutes, for the most part, I like it. 
when the rule was first created waaay back then, it was designed to encourage visiting teams to be more 'offensive' when playing on road. but back then, I dont think anybody envisioned Klopp being born. laughing.  Naysayers nowadays say the rule is "outdated" and not current with the times.  so yes, theres truth to that as the way the game has evolved theres quite a few clubs whom are comfortable on the road with coaches..... whom use it to their advantage. 
im not taking ANYTHING away from Pool/Totts performance, but this year was kind of a 'freak' occurence. or maybe its the start of a new trend, I honestly dont know.  but it wasnt too long ago where the general mindset in Europe was getting the 2nd leg at home was a HUGE advantage.  this isnt the case any longer.  Tottenham/Ajax blew that theory into the Atlantic the past month fer godsakes. 
but heres why im against changing it:
1) you know the World Cup (or even the Euros), those first matches of Group Stage? I fear we'd be seeing a whole mass of games looking just like those. boring, cluster (bleep), yawner of matches where the visiting team simply parks the bus.  then when the 2nd leg rolls around the OTHER opponent would probably do the same exact thing.
2) thoug I consider myself in the category of 'defense over offense' i love the idea of being able to LOSE a 2nd leg yet still advance.  win 1-0 at home, lose 2-1 on road and you're moving on. this isnt everybodys cup of tea i understand. 
3) (personal opinion) its a royal pain in the you-know-what capping a 2 legged series if the away goal isnt applicable.  im not fond of that. 

you know whats frustrating at times tho? (and this is the case once in a while even with Juventus). those head coaches/fans/etc etc, especially the defensive/tactician types, are the ones whom want this rule dropped. nothing "eats" their minds more than conceding at home. yet those coaches like Simeone, or Mou, even Allegri..... when they absolutely need to score... not saying they would but, my ohhhhh my can they be fluent, and press forward when their backs are to the wall. so a lot of people just say "hey... why dont you START the matches that way?". 

but thats just me.   this away goal rule can start a sh*tsorm of arguments because basically youre instigating two completely opposite school of thoughts on the game amongst people. and theres a LOT of coaches out there nowadays loaded up front whom have the 'Old Guard'/fundamentalists turning in their graves. 

(opinion only) changing this rule would have a bigger impact than installing VAR has. 
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Soccer / Monday plays..... / View Post
Serie A: bad wknd from the wagering standpoint, took a bunch of chances with 'risk' plays and nothing went right. great time in brescia celebrating their promotion  & nothing trumps La Festa della Mamma (aka, Mothers Day); not even losing to Roma. anyways, all 7 of the clubs which "needed"/motivated to win .... won. sets up for a very interesting final two Rounds.

Whiskey, saw ur question in my thread, will get back to it. 

took our kiddies to win their Qtr-final matchup with Portugal, so hopefully they can hold on to that lead at the half. 

decided to take another chance here. 
Bologna/Parma - yet another local Derby, about an hour apart on opposite sides of Sassuolo. both still in danger of relegation but personally I dont think either has much to worry about when taking a peek at Empolis remaining schedule. to the untrained eye a look at the table and 'common sense' says "draw". which would suit me fine as I need Parma to remain above Empoli for a future (currently at 3 pts); its something theyve done 5 straight matches anyways. Bologna in really good form tho, especially at home, of late but have several key missings/suspensions for tonight.  and Parma too have missings, but get Inglese back though I doubt he will start after a lengthy treatment table. 
though Parma historically have a terrible record vs their rivals keep in mind the reverse fixture this year is just the 1st meeting in over 5 years in Serie A. so a lot of those statistics are just that, history. on a more 'current' basis, those 3 missings are pretty significant for the home side, the entire left of their formation; the same side Gervinho(Parma) lines up on. so im going to take another calculated risk tonight with decent prices, as a friend noted, Rossoblu are brutal with juice attached.
draw @+240, Parma to win @+490
Gervinho(Parma) to score anytime @+250 (overdue, & should get a few chances tonight vs that lineup hopefully) 

Inter/Chievo - if Inter doesnt win this by at least 2 then they dont deserve that CL slot, especially vs an opponent planning summer vacations.  push at worst.  Inter -2 @-115.  and going to take a fun play; after a meat-grinder of a schedule this past month playing Roma, Juve, and then that 'juve hangover' scoreless draw with Udinese last weekend. Inter also has a date in Naples next week .... even though its the bloody dreaded Monday nighter, something tells me theyre going to explode tonight. if SPAL can hang 4 on them..............
Inter TT over 3.5 @+175

GL to all
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Soccer / Monday plays..... / View Post
back in a min.  
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Cagliari/Lazio - after losing at home to Atalanta last wknd putting a huge dent in europe next year, they have the Coppa Final midweek. going up against those island boys whom are one of the stronger home teams in Serie A and have contract incentive if they can come in the top 10 (currently sit 2 points out). Lazio lost to god-awful, cellar dwelling Chievo (at home too) a few weeks back, then went out and played their best match in months beating Milan in San Siro in the 2nd leg to advance to the Coppa finals.  now 2 weeks later, same scenario and slipping in the table; worth a shot with a motivated home side.
Cagliari +1/2 @-110

Fiorentina/Milan - (YAWN). Viola havent won since February, 13 matches. not even a coaching change helped, but this is one of the places Milan historically struggle in as I think theyve won just once here this decade. PASS.

Torino/Sassuolo - in line for a big payout if Toro can come 6th or higher. so no need to do anything with this one except pray they grab the 'w'. Torino do not fare well in the heavy favorite role. and have won just twice in past 9 meetings. PASS.

Sampdoria/Empoli - Samp nothing to play for excpt help Quag win the goal scoring title; many hoping the old man can do it. Empoli needs to go for pts to avoid relegation, but with one of the worst defenses on road this should become pretty entertaining as the 6 goals in the reverse fixture.  Samp/Empoli over 3.5 @+150

Frosinone/Udine - PASS
SPAL/Napoli - PASS

Serie B: too many conflicting rumors making this round impossible to cap; especially the matches involving those two southern teams battling it out for 2nd place auto-promotion slot (Lecce, Palermo). 

Brescia to win @-120, Brescia/Benevento over 3.5 @+140 - invited and heading out there to join the festivities as the wknd celebration began (actually tonight) for Brescias promotion back to Serie A, along with their Serie B title. heard rumors of Baggio in attendance .  season ending home match vs an opponent safe in 4th place awaiting the playoffs. 2 of 3 teams whom have over 100 total goals (for/against)  for the season should be a fun one between teams whom dont need to worry about defense. 

Verona/Foggia draw @+220  

EPL: a festive season-ending wknd being able to put all 4 clubs into the Finals after this past midweek. im not even going to try to figure the card  out   
10-match over 1.5 @+420 - as a close friend out there says: "score..... ya bloddy wankas!!!" 

Scotland Promotion Rounds 2n legs: (tailing). *** away goal rule doesnt count ***
Queen/Montrose over 2.5 @-133
Forfar/Raith over 2.5 @-120   


GL to all 
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had started this midweek. getting this out of way now.  chunk-blowing session yesterday, tho having a decent week with a couple of big days its been a roller coaster ride.   
Serie A: tricky card. and on top of that have several futures pending.  decided to take a bunch of chances. 
 
I know the EPL got their season ending "thing" going on this wknd; though no titles or anything like that at stake, there still some very interesting scenarios in Serie A.   

(please "skip" this one)
Roma/Juventus - at seasons start, this match was on everyones Top 5 of dropping points (we've only won ONCE in past 7 visits there) but the season unfolded quite differently. thy big "D'OH......Captain Obvious" Homer-Extreme play. first of all, we have nothing to play for as everything is wrapped up. Totti, like clockwork, running his mouth again all week; and Roma fans saying all sorts of sorts. our former coach Conte this past week just announced he turned down their job offer (which is like spraying gasoline on a wildfire).  not sure if Christian is "on-board" with this rivalry/derby and all that, being 'new to the area'. but im positive Giorgio clued him in and brought him up-to-date on things. and he still wants that goalscoring title so perhaps everyone will feed him the ball. and nothing would make our upper management happier than helping to knock Roma out of europe next year. Roma badly needs points; but they were d*mn lucky to get one last week with a saved PK in injury time. 
 they havent scored against us 5 of the past 6 H2H's.   lets make it 6 out of 7. scr*w them. 
Juventus to win @+185
Juventus -1.5 @+450 - because I can. 


The Coppa Italia Final is being played this coming wednesday. no Juve. no Napoli. no Roma. a "once-in-a-decade" kind of thing for these clubs. (Lazio/Atalanta). with the prize of a "backdoor" entry into UEL next year. 

Atalanta/Genoa - this is one where I didnt expect to have to wait till May, need the home side to drop pts in either of their two remaining home matches; theyve been quite fortunate in regards to the scheduling this year when hosting the bigger teams. and with them sitting in that final 4th CL slot makes it interesting, but im not entirely sure theyll be able to hold that down. Genoa still in the relegation fight and have been playing poorly of late. but prices on the visitors have been hammered the past few days.
1) several suspensions; their key midfielder (Gomez) whom makes their offense run & most experienced defender are out. which is why Zapata is juiced to be a goalscorer, tho not taking him he's #1 choice this round in fantasy group cause of Genoas leaky defense on road.
2) the match was moved south to Sassuolos  grounds due to construction on their home stadium.
3) Coppa Italia final midweek.
though I need them to drop pts to hit that future, I'd rather see them grab the 4th spot than Roma/Milano, not sure theyll be able to manage (especially with that trip to Turin next week). though they are familiar with this stadium (had to play all of their Europa home games there due to UEFA regulations; however, they have played very poorly there. and that suspension to Gomez is significant to them.  worth a chance at these prices considering the scenario.
Genoa +1/2 @+175, Genoa to win @+600
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