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BANG!!!!   Municipal  

after a slow start, swept the conmebol for a nice end to a big week. 
Genoa/Lazio under 2.5 @-103 (L)
Samp to win @+630 (L)
Alessandria -1.5 @+228 (L)
Olbia/Carrarese over 2.5 @-105 (W)
Doncaster/Palace over 2.5 @-115 (L)
Municipal(Melgar) win @+540, draw @+290 (W, L)
Huracan(Talleres) pick @+110  (W)
Penarol(Defensor) to win @-120 (W)
Equidad(Nacional) +1/2 @+125 (colombia) (W)

Loose, a little different this year in the sense a whole lot fewer draws but more outrights hitting.  will get back to you on this later when have the time. 
zal, hou  either format is fine. i tend to float from one another; but stop short with using fractionals. after all these years it still makes me stop & think. 
wci , pardon was out all day. wouldnt have been able to help much with that one anyways. Toro are the draw specialists this year 9 of 12 heading into yesterday on road. 
barney , 1st leg of prelims on deck this week with tickets to the group stage & cash infusion for the clubs.  6-3 on the wknd with those clubs. after years of sitting on sidelines & keeping tabs on results it's not a bad start for my first full-season voyage into that. will do this again next wknd for sure.  8 clubs from 8 different countries. geez. 



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tried getting this up earlier in AM , gave up.     not much time here.     going lightly today and a huge midweek card on the horizon with 'CL's all over the planet' 

Serie A: dont like any of these matches, lots to watch today, not much to play on though. letting down thy guard and go with a few hunches. 
Genoa/Lazio - how to "read"  a Serie A line (laughing) . Genoa cant score, Lazio forgot how. Genoa lost Piatek whom banged in half of their 14 goals at home while he was there;Lazio missing Savic + Immobile is not 100%, played just 3 days ago in Austria and have scored the fewest road goals of any team in the Top 10 in table. local opened overs near evens and then took off into juice-land.    'overs' are not supposed to take off when BOTH teams leading scorers are gone. decent prices on this.
Genoa/Lazio under 2.5 @-103

Inter/Samp - been going back-n-forth all day long on this one. one of those situations where being too familiar with a certain league can be a good/bad thing. have already mentioned many times of Inters off-field distractions, teams a mess and you can pick any of the 5 things. and this is a team whom has scored just 2 goals during the run of play in their past 7 games. their Captain left, Icardi pulled a hissy-fit after being stripped of his armband and stayed home last Thurs (out again here), and they just played 3 days ago in Austria and they looked unorganized in the back but gifted a PK and won. Samp just lost to cr*ppy Frosinone last week; a game where they conceded zero shots on target and had close to a 75-25 possession advantage; just one of those games. but they cant stop anybody on the road; have conceded 2+ in 7 of their past 8 roadies. consider Inters woes of late, prices with Samp look TASTY;  but re-read my last sentence.   PASS (for now)
****EDIT  small play on Samp to win @+630.   breaking one of my "rules" in the process: "if ur going to play a big dog on the road, better make sure its one whom at the very least has shown some semblence of keeping the opponent out of the net". so cutting the risk in half for fun.

Serie C:
Alessandria -1.5 @+228
Olbia/Carrarese over 2.5 @-105

England FA Cup:
Doncaster/Palace over 2.5 @-115

Conmebol:
Municipal(Melgar) win @+540, draw @+290 (peru)
Huracan(Talleres) pick @+110 (arg)
Penarol(Defensor) to win @-120 (uruguay)
Equidad(Nacional) +1/2 @+125 (colombia)


GL to all 
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decided to come here first.    decent day yesterday: sandwiches didnt come thru but hit a nice draw down there in conmebol. 

Newport/(ManC) +2.5 @+152 (L) (was that really necessary Mahrez?? )
Vallecano(Atletico) +500, +275 (L, L)

Cagliari/Parma BTTS @-110 (W)
Perugia to win @+152 (W)
Foggia to win @+245 (L)
Hibernian -1.5 @+160, Hibs/Hamilton over 2.5 @-111 (W, L)

Conmebol: once group stages come around will be jumping in with both feet. 
LaCalera(Palestino) win @+127 (W) (friday)
River Plate(Libertad) pick @+140 (paraguay) (P)
Aragua(Caracas) to win @+380, draw @+290 (venezuela) (L, W)
Tupi(Mineiro) +1/2 @+150 (brazil) (L)


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(Pending Sandwiches)
Newport/(ManC) +2.5 @+152
Vallecano(Atletico) +500, +275

Serie A:like it when we play on fridays, frees up the whole wknd  downside is it screws up the agenda.   tough card again; treatment table issues all over the place, short turnarounds (UEL teams) and a few low-scoring clunkers look to be on the menu.

lost writeups, out of time.

Cagliari/Parma BTTS @-110


Serie B:
Perugia to win @+152 
Foggia to win @+245

Scotland:
Hibernian -1.5 @+160, Hibs/Hamilton over 2.5 @-111

Conmebol: got the first one in ystday, most of the Lib participants in midweek with weakened lineups. 
LaCalera(Palestino) win @+127 (W)
Equidad(Nacional) +1/2 @+125 (colombia)
River Plate(Libertad) pick @+140 (paraguay)
Aragua(Caracas) to win @+380, draw @+290 (venezuela)
Tupi(Mineiro) +1/2 @+150 (brazil)

was asked about Europa; buddy thought it was a good fade, spot for those teams this wknd with a domestic squeezed between the 2 legs.  for me, I shy away as several teams RESTED players for this wknd.  and then theres those other clubs whom might have simply given up & focus domestically after a lousy 1st leg result. motivation is always a pain with this comp.  and many of those eastern european teams havent even come back from their winter breaks yet. PASS.

GL to all

 
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Pal/Bresc Draw + over 2.5 @+1100, BTTS & under 2.5 @550 (L, W)
Augsburg(Munich)  +1100, +550, +1.5 @+120 (L, L, W)
Guigamp +1.5 @+110 (W)
LaCalera(Palestino) win @+127 (pending)

3-3 fun parlay didnt come through but Munich & Lyon did as expected and hit a nice one with Brescias late goal to get that btts-draw  

straight win for us but more importantly, no injuries.    on to tmrw. 
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out, got a few minutes here before heading off.  regarding Palermo, one of the small reasons i took them to win the title, their situation is always interesting. been toggling back n forth betweeen Serie A/B all deccade long.  too good for 'B', not good enuff for 'A'.  ya can go back and check too, every time theyve dropped, they came right back up the following year.  part of it is the 'social' aspect of it. (too long of an explanation) you already know their location so wont need to delve into that here. but theres some pretty powerful people associated with them, whom hold some pretty powerful positions in the futbol world of italy. and one of the things about Serie A is that its always represented by a club from the south.    just watch, put a gun to my head,  cagliari drops and palermo promotes.  getting that promotion is huge, the money which comes with it can keep a club afloat for years.    im hoping Brescia can hold on. 

could care less if we win/lose today.  but for the love of dear god, please... no injuries.   
outoforder
outoforder
Soccer / February bets / View Post
GL today out    on that 'B' draw as well. my only worry is brescia isnt good with bus-parking so hope its a high scoring one. 
SettleDownSpaz
SettleDownSpaz
Soccer / Friday 15 Feb / View Post
GL today Settle 
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Out    when i first stated doing thing  many moons ago i used to fade everyone across the board (home/away). lets just say its a "learned" adjustment. after a few years i stopped fading the home teams, the big boys tended to clobber 'lesser' opponents in front of their supporters. which still pretty much holds true today.  which i why I pick my spots with the home teams.  ill never 'fade' Barca at home, not as long as Lionel is still alive. same with my guys; quite a few of our supporters dont appreciate half-a**ed efforts, doesnt matter vs whomever/whenever. so i avoid them.  Lyon has shown an MO of looking ahead the past few years, so i dont mind taking a calculated risk on that one.  and as long as im getting '+' money on it, its worth a shot even if they did beat this team already twice this year. didnt Guigamp lose to PSG by a touchdown recently though? 
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Barney    thanks for chiming in, was hoping youd give an update. watched tape of the game and exact similar analysis/take on it. i'll chalk that up as a loss this is why i laugh at these guys whom come in with the "fixed" conspiracies without a clue of the situation.  its a Lib Prelim ..., soo close to the Group Stage qualification where not only the clubs benefit but I guarantee almost all the players have a contact incentive which kicks in if they qualify. ya think theyre just gonna throw that all away?     let me guess, like you said, they can somehow hit the woodwork exactly when needed, or that shot from 5 feet away  which deflected off defenders leg just over the crossbar, or like that forward whom angled a shot between the defenders legs there which skimmed inches away from the post.  thats pretty skillful if ur able to do that stuff on cue.  hint: if ur gonna throw a game u wouldnt pile forward creating chance after chance. especially when ya didnt even need to when ya had the advantage after the 1st leg. chr*st. 

hope you dont mind, but im slated to fade ur boys this wknd. they WILL be resting everyone..... right?

Out    as always. 
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Holland Friday FUN Parlay (as always): hit this again last week as things been picking up, 3-2 since winter break:
9-match over 1.5 @+297

playing todays card lightly. when found out the final score we celebrated the hoops win (cork popping) a tad too enthusiastically. ensures will remain on '+' side for remainder of month. so now back to our 'regularly scheduled programming' 

Serie A:
Juve/Frosinone - cazzo!!  4 hours before the start and i still cant find/figure out our lineup. will have to wait till when arrive and see. with an 11 pt lead and a trip to Madrid looming; this COULD be our 'throw-away' game. but then again, we dont "do" throw aways at home.  Max in a sticky spot with key players back from injury so he'll want to at least give them some time out there. (Chiell & Bonucci especially).  Christian might be rested, if starts, he'll probably get pulled at the half anyways. so he'll get his 1 hour to pile on the goals and extend that lead. but if I know Max like I do, he'll go out with the same formation which is being planned for midweek and get everyone "set" so dont be suprised if you see us playing deep with the 'horseshoe' formation and just defend & hit off the counters. prices juiced to the moon. at same time I wouldnt touch the +1.5 either simply cause I dont know whats going thru Christians brain. he can bang in 2-3 alone here.  PASS.

Serie B:
Palermo/Brescia - 2nd vs 1st, separated by a point.  stingiest defense with the fewest total goals vs best offense with the most total goals. Brescia won reverse fixture 2-1 and will be playing for the draw here; theyre tied for the most draws on road. (hoping they can do this) and havent been cleansheeted in any of their 25 matches this year. got lucky with the scheduling as this is the best time of year for northern clubs to be visiting sicily as temps/humidity are reasonable. for fun, going to try my luck with this. split it in half: Draw + over 2.5 @+1100, BTTS & under 2.5 @550

Sandwiches:
Augsburg(Munich)  +1100, +550, +1.5 @+120  - same darn spot as last year prior to their KO Round opener, almost the same date too. visited relegation contender Wolfsburg, fell behind a goal and ended up winning on Lews injury-time PK in 92nd with a 400+ hanging on the draw.  they owe me one.  but honestly, getting '+' money on that 1.5 looks nice; with that trip to Anfield looming - not to mention 'Pool is off this wknd, so theyre sitting there resting, reviewing film, practice, and get the strategy/formation down to the nitty-gritty. i dont expect Munich to go 'all out' here but 5 pts behind Dort theyll be eager for the 'w' and dial up the pressure on them. grab lead, conserve energy, and - most importantly - like my Juve, be injury-free. 
Newport/(ManC) +2.5 @+152 -i REFUSE to cherry-pick this trend, once i start doing that ya end up going down a slippery slope. if im not mistaken, couldnt Citys bench win League 2?  
Vallecano(Atletico) +500, +275

Home teams to fade:
Lyon/Guigamp - Lyon at home this year before CL? draw Caen 2-2, lost 2-0 to Rennes, won 1-0 to Eti, draw Bordeaux at home, beat Nimes 2-0 with help of an injury time goal, draw Nantes. these guys blew chunks last year before even their UEL matches,  gosh.  with Mr. Lionel & Company coming to town in a few days and Im getting '+' money on this? OK.... Ill bite.  cr@ppy cellar dweller and all. and hoping for an uninspired 2-1 win.
Guigamp +1.5 @+110

Conmebol: all these clubs just recently advanced this past week; 3rd and final Preliminary round is set for next week. soooo close to qualifying for Group stage, almost positive none of these clubs will be fielding full-strength squads this wknd (if theyre even playing at all) fade them all irrespective if its home/away:
one goes off today:
LaCalera(Palestino) win @+127

GL to all 
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Bologna +650.     like clockwork yearly. 


Nacional -1.5 @-135 (L)
Seville pick @+129 (W)
Napoli -1 @-139 (W)   
Vienna +1/2 @+125 to win @+515 (L, L)
Kiev +1/2 @-110 (W)
Arsenal -1.5 @+125 (L)
Salzburg to win @+125 (L)
Shakhtar/Frankfurt BTTS @-133 (W)
Pari/Monagas over 2.5 @+120 (W)

5-5 for a nice gain on the pitch, and hit the biggie outright + 2 HC's with the hoops special. 
- disappointed with that Inter result, should have swept the Serie A teams ystday.
- SHOULD BE disappointed with Arsenal. 70-30 posession, 12-3 corners; lose 1-0.  another normal "day" with me taking them. ill just file this one away with the others. should take the juiced -2.5 line next week or whatever the heck it is at, just for the h*ll of it. 

on to tmrw. 

Babu ,  nice to see ya around again. trust the "sauce"   
WCI  honeymoon?  italy?....  ur going to Venice arent ya?   well, if thats where ur "boss" wants to go then by all means take her.  makes sense anyways, that city is always #1 in weddings and marriage licenses year-in & year-out.   drink? ...... you need to pluralize that please. 

over,  cmon, geez. had they won 2-0 with 2 PK's would you have still said it was fixed.  
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(adding)
Copa Sud:
Pari/Monagas over 2.5 @+120

weird stat a buddy dropped into my lap this morning. was thinking about "blanket-playing" every match on this prop cause of the prices, but passed.

Will there be a goal scored before 27th - or whatever minute?  yes. 
in the last two years in Europa 23 of the 32 matches saw a goal before the half hour mark.  this goes totally against how i THOUGHT these matches would play out thinking along the lines of a 0-0 snoozefest.  thats UEL in a nutshell for me. 

Loose  not to take anything away from Real, but that was an undeserved result for Ajax. they were the better team YESTERDAY.    but when that ball hit the netting a friend slaps me on the back and says:

"Buon San Valentino!!!!"  (happy valentines day)

our "sweetheart" has good timing ehh??   gave us a BIG 'kisser' you-know-where.   


weird stat a buddy dropped into my lap this morning. was thinking about "blanket-playing" every match on this prop cause of the prices, but passed.

Will there be a goal scored before 27th - or whatever minute?  yes. 

in the last two years in Europa 23 of the 32 matches saw a goal before the half hour mark.  

Settle , those Belgium clubs are a migraine . I honestly wish I cant even figure out anymore if its a strong/weak mid-european league. im not implying its any worse than anywhere else but gosh...... theyre impossible to cap sometimes. the whole lot of them.  score when they shouldnt, concede and open up passing lanes wider than some airport runways then come back around and cleansheet a "power team". just to keep my melon off-balance.  look at Brugge this year: draw Monaco at home and then come back around and cleansheet BOTH Dortmund & Atletico. 
Genk is another one, blown away by an 8th place Norwegian team on road and then waltz into Turkey and beat Besitkas.  I give up. 
I passed on the over here simply because Slavia hasnt shown the desire to get into shootouts at home. they cleansheeted Bordeaux, Copenhagen, and Zenit. and Genk might not be so willing to open it up since its the 1st leg on road. 

Circus , appreciate it.  but i must add, the UEL can be a cr*pshoot sometimes.  in my opinion, much tougher than the UCL for this one simple reason:  motivation.     in the UCL ya dont have to worry about teams, theyre going to 'bring it' no matter whom is out there --- so in a way, its easier to cap. and the matches are usually decided by a single errant pass or some mental lapse.   the UEL?   didnt have time ystday to reply in ur thread but you asked how can a team like Ajax lose to Heracles and beat Real?  well, stuff like that happens when teams rest their entire regulars or just 'play not to get injured'. and a lot of those teams, what they do during practice sessions in the week leading up to it is focus on their plan for the CL opponent; could care less about the league match.   thats how those "suprise results" sometimes pop up.  but in the UEL, (at least in Italy), the POLAR OPPOSITE can happen (see Rewinds comment)  teams leave their stars behind or rest them in the UEL match in anticipation for their wknd Serie A game. 
its not an exact science and i wouldnt go painting this with a broad brush and apply it to every league around europe. EPL clubs probably look at this tourney different, Spain too. etc etc etc.    all i know is I check starting lineups and coaches team selections for the UEL waaay more than I do with UCL.



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the Italia Special.   or Italia Jobber.   or whatever you want to call it.

Italian Cup (basketball)
Bologna @+650, +12.5
on a side note, dont do hoops that much - or any other sport for that matter aside from alpine skiing season. been doing this for as long as I can remember; friend sent his annual reminder and thought Id post it for fun.  for those of you whom like basketball and enjoy a good, freshly FIXED Italian fettucine with a heaping amount of sauce the only thing I plunk some spare change on is the Italian Cup and for as long as i can remember will plunk some on this. (watch, now that I finally elect to post it, itll screw up) wont go into the details but take Bologna @+650 this Thursday. the +12.5 will do but apparently, you can bypass that. Milano is "THE" team out here, they have the best resources, players, and have won twice as many titles as anyone else in league...... 

......and have an ownership over there which ....."allegedly" (laughing)....has ties to people you really dont want to meet. 
he jut updates the email every year
"last year Milano went off something like 13 pt favs (4 digit outrights) --- lost by 18. 2 years ago? 800s and double digits, won by 2 on a last gasp H-O-R-S-E shot. 3 years ago in finals? double digits again and 4 digit juice, won by 6, but were down in the 4th until the call probably came in. 4 years ago?? 1500 favs, won by 2. 5 years ago 500s & double digits, lost by 2."
do you see a pattern here? if this doesnt hit?  get 'em next game,  works every year"  
for fun,  he takes the line at every 3rd point till it hits evens (+3,6,9, whatever)   .
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Rapid/Inter - so, the 8th place team in Austria whom got here via Qualifiers & unbeaten at home shouldnt pose too much of a problem right? but Inter still in a mess; all those media distractions ive documented already; knocked out of UCL, Coppa, and up until winter break they were a 'lock' to qualify for CL next year. but their offense evaporated & suddenly a pack of teams are in their rearview and they have a HUGE game vs Samp on Sunday.  last thing they want is a trip to sub-freezing Vienna on a weeknight. and hearing rumors Spaletti might rest Icardi as well as a few others here. giving me 500s for this??  cazzo!! i smell an upset brewing here but really need to wait for lineup confirmations before making a play. PASS for now. 

****EDIT: Icardi just excused himself from team,. pissed off he was stripped of captaincy. Spaletti removed him from the roster so he wont be in there. (serves him right for complaining about his contract halfway thru the year)*****
thats all i need to know.    
Vienna +1/2 @+125, to win @+515

Olympiakos/Kiev - really like this one.  Kiev, coming off a 2 month break; have had weeks to prepare for this one and should be rested and ready. Olympiakos here when pulled a rabbit out of their butts beating Milan with 3 2nd half goals back in december; but they have their hated rivals AEK in 3 days time. last year Kiev in a strangely similar scenario - 2 months off - went into Athens, took an early lead, and held on to their dear lives and got the draw with AEK.   deja vu?? worth a shot.
Kiev +1/2 @-110

(fade me 
Arsenal -1.5 @+125 - remember when you were little and looked under your bed for monsters?  thats me and Arsenal. so if Im going to back them? might as well take the "worst" type of play in my personal opinion: road favorite on a HC line in a European comp in the 1st leg. lets go for the glory. (laughing)  they thumped this team...TWICE... during Group stages last year. but im getting this nagging feeling theyre gonna roll over & play dead. last year they opened the KO rounds thumping a Swedish team 3-0 (i lost that wager.  yes, i remember every freaking Arsenal play.  dont ask) since the EPL is off this wknd, their next match is the reverse fixture at home where they can rest everyone for the EPL game. they are the far superior club here.

Salzburg to win @+125- a little suprised with this line, should come with a little juice attached. 

Shakhtar/Frankfurt BTTS @-133
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tried getting this up earlier, gave up.  not in mood to scr*w around in morning so finally got thru. 

Copa Lib: (Barney put a nice writeup in my thread ystday, similar reasonings)
Nacional(Col)/LaGuaira(Ven) - jumped all over this the minute the lines came out last week and did the same earlier this week. Colombians won 1st leg (on road) 1-0. tho the scoreline might not reflect this, it was a fairly 'comfortable' win as Venezuelans simply were unable to mount any kind of attack. without the exaggeration, Nacional could have easily won that by multiple goals. now at home for the 2nd leg and yes, theres the risk of them playing it 'safe' and simply doing enough to secure advancement. which is one thing i do feel the need to point out here: Colombian teams, at home are typically one serious nut to crack. flood the midfield, pack it in and defend like crazy. thats their 'MO'. especially after having teh advantage after the 1st leg.   but the quality gap is too large for them to not bang in several in front of their home fans. they won the posession battle 70-30 last week.... on the road; part of it might be due to Venezuelans attempting to keep it close but after Nacional scored, they still dominated possession the final 20 minutes. thats a telling sign when a team can dominate posession in a situation (1st leg on road) which dictates 'playing it safe'.  Another 'variable' to consider is that "miracle" Guaira had in advancing last round, Im fairly certain those Colombians are all aware of that and should leave nothing to chance and hit them on counters. smells like a 2-0, 3-0 scoreline.
Nacional -1.5 @-135

UEL: migh be asking for trouble but going with the roadies
going to stick with the Serie A teams first and perhaps add a few others.   

Lazio/Sevilla - im ignoring Inzaghis comments about 'giving their best" & "aim to go far". load of BS. he knows his job security hinges on a top 4 finish and getting that coveted CL slot next year, and Serie A mid-table is jam-packed. same could be said with Sevilla as they are clinging to that 4th spot as well; but I love backing Spanish/Portuguese teams in this tourney, both countries clubs approach this with a little more enthusiasm. they didnt breeze through 3 rounds of qualifiers and win 4 of their 6 Group stage matches just to roll over here. Dont necessarily think they can - or will even attempt to - go for the 'w' here, but these teams are fairly equal and Ill gladly take the half because Lazio hasnt beaten a quality opponent at home all year long thus far (Inter, Milan, Samp, Frankfurt, Torino, & Juve). 
Seville pick @+129

Zurich/Napoli - not sure exactly why this line is coming down. yes, its well known Serie A teams tend to not care for UEL. but Ancellotti sending all the key firepower out there up front. and with Juve pulling away, UCL failure, and Coppa too... this is their last chance for hardware. my biggest worry was 1) motivation & 2) approach/tactics.  both were answered with Ancellottis squad selection and it appears they arent planning to wait for the 2nd leg. Napoli have scored just ONE goal in their past 6 roadies so this is a perfect chance for them and I dont see Zurich being able to contain. this is just a massive step-up in class for them. 
Napoli -1 @-139  - yes, juiced. and right near my threshhold of comfort level. but dont see any reason why Napoli shouldnt - at worst - 'Push' this.

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