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Thread Author bulldog79 Post Entries
tchamps
tchamps
Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:

Just to clarify, Hooker didn't play any of the past 7 games for the Colts. They did just fine. If you like Indy, this is a non issue. I do not like Indy for other reasons. Carry on...


Great and helpful clarification 

Thank you
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:


Yea I was already planning on doing that, but all this hate is still really stupid. You guys really want to hate on someone who has been giving great plays so far?

I do agree I already felt like my thoughts were getting way out of control here. Lol

Hey man - I was just going to compliment you on a great thread.  DON'T let some trolls or even other legit posters question and bother you into changing what you do. 

It's refreshing to hear someone openly discussing their thoughts and system. That's what real people do. I'm a bit of a system, stat nerd - it's nice to see you question and refine. That's how you gather data and get better.  

The last thing we need is another capper who uses the words CRUSH and LOCK all the time. 

I think this is one of the toughest weeks I've seen in awhile. Your questions seem to confirm that.  

New England usually finds a way to step up at home for big games. When KC was read hot in week 6 they beat em.  Same for the Bears and Vikings (not as big of a win, but still). NE has looked bad on the road, so it's confused people. It's a tough pick imho.  

The last 3 games or so of the regular season can be misleading, so that can through off perception and a system like yours as well.

My most solid advice: Realize there's bozo's who just want attention and to be jerks - and ignore them. Not everyone has to agree. 

Good luck this week!

I have a pretty good teaser system I use. Maybe we'll chat after the season and compare notes. 

bulldog79
bulldog79
Quote Originally Posted by whyamiheres:

Unless Pac gets old overnight, he should be able to pick apart Broner.  I really think after getting brave with Maidana, Broner goes into survival mode when he feels the heat from great competition.  Seen him do it vs Porter and Garcia.  

Thanks for the input. The fight game is so hard to bet on given the nature of the judges and not knowing their motivation.  

I've been reading up and every time I ever hear about someone like Broner "having the ability and could win if he just applies himself" means they never really apply themselves.  :-)

If I knew a Mayweather rematch was riding on this, I'd feel even better about betting on Pac, but I'm not sure May plans on fighting him unless he blows through enough money and needs it.
bulldog79
bulldog79
Is there a reasonable chance that Pacquiao loses this fight?  

I know anything can happen, but you can get decent odds on Pac.  I just haven't followed him recently.  

Thoughts?

Thx
bpickin
bpickin
Quote Originally Posted by Fishman13:

The reason line opened 4 and may seem low is because the masses of ave joe's think just like you, they love to back proven winners while fading guys who've never won or lost more in playoffs past.

The books know the masses will back Rodgers.

If you do your homework backing proven winners is foolsgold, backing the better team by effiency indicators will give you a far better record in the long run then backing proven winners and that'd be Falcons .

And you will get far better value with non proven winners because this deep in playoffs the line gets shaded to proven winners as we see here.

When proven winners win again it's because they play on teams better in effiency indicators and when proven winners no longer play on the better teams in these indicators like Seattle they get beaten and many times badly.

Where people get confused about proven winners is when the play on better teams and win then they say, see, see I told you the proven winner will win, well yea he played on the better team.

A much truer test of a proven winner is when he does not play on the better team and those results do not bode well for proven winners.

Had you back Rodgers as an unproven winner to win SB it would have taken you 2 trips to playoffs to win.

Had you backed him as a proven winner to win SB , 5 years later he still has not won it again or made it back again.

He even lost in his opening playoff game as a proven winner after going 15-1 in regular season but playing on a team which was out-gained in total yards in regular season which is again, a very poor indicator as a potential SB winner.

Bye teams that get out-gained in total yards you can kiss their arses goodbye in the playoffs, are you listening KC ?

And there's a 15-1 team with a proven winning QB who could not win a game in playoffs but could win as a unproven winner as a wild card 10-6 team that need the final game to make playoffs but was strong in total yards
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
My head hurts after reading that....So are you saying Falcons are the play?


He's saying that it's been proven that backing unproven winners when the unknowing public is underestimating the value of the previously shakey loser is a sure bet to happen. If you realize that, then look for certain situations where backing a proven winner is actually riding a loser, then switch to the shakey short-term winner who is about to become a proven winner (time-frame of this switch is variable however). The problem is that I have no idea whether the guy writing this thread is a proven winner. And even if he is, does that mean I should fade him?

Hmmmm
Wizerguy
Wizerguy
NFL Betting / NFL Week 14 / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

Raiders +3.5 seems like it can't lose. They are undefeated on the road this year and not to mention afc west roadies are solid and revenge and they have been solid on the road ats for a very long time. The only thing I don't like is that the game Is on Thursday which has some trends of its own, but honestly with the hook I can't see you losing this bet no way no how. Too much favoring Oakland here for it not to matter... good luck with your play.

Hmm... I'm suddenly liking KC more and more.  :-)
Madden21
Madden21
Quote Originally Posted by Madden21:

Disappointed with Denver, 

Still a positive day 3-1.

Just remember man, winning record or losing from week to week, it's good to people that put thought into each pick and discuss. People can make up their own mind after that.  

Don't get too high or too low.  
Teasersystem
Teasersystem
NBA Betting / Totals System- / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by Teasersystem:

3 units on under Celtics 112 2nd half

Nice. Fellow stat geek sent you a friend request.
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