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Thread Author iamhuge Post Entries
iamhuge
iamhuge

Moolah plays by UNC and Texas A&M hurt me this week....2-6 on the week.  44-39 YTD  53%....time to hang it up til bowl season

iamhuge
iamhuge

Fail ole miss and duke.  0-3 this week

iamhuge
iamhuge

Hope you liked the picks and the write ups.  Is anyone with me on any of these games?  Best of luck to all!

iamhuge
iamhuge

charlotte +14.5 @ MARSHALLI made the HUGE mistake of betting against charlotte last week.  Nice lesson learned…now I intend on collecting.  The 49ers are a shitty team, almost as bad as the NFL 49ers.  However, their last 4 games have been very good.  Despite going 2-2, they have found a new way to stop the run and have impressed their opponents.  Charlotte has looked very strong in wins against WKU and Southern Miss.  They have looked even better in their 8 point loss to MTSU and their 11 point loss to Tennessee.  In those last 4 games, their defense has only given up only 16.5 points per game.   More stunning than that was Tennessee, at home during homecoming, ran the ball 26 times for only 20 yards against Charlotte.  Shocking.  Against MTSU, Charlotte held the Blue Raiders to 33 yards rushing on 32 attempts.  Against WKU, Charlotte held the Hilltoppers to 42 yards rushing on 17 carries.   I mean, this is a mudhole stomping defense!  Who knew????

So we know Marshall isn’t going to be able to run the ball, especially since their leading rushed is injured and won’t play.  Their QB tandem has been very generous with the football – throwing 10 interceptions against only 14 touchdowns.  In fact, the Herd’s overall offense hasn’t been terrific, averaging only 26 points per contest in their last 6 tilts.  It makes it really tough to cover 14.5.   Charlotte is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games.  This contest will be very low scoring, which makes covering 14.5 a HUGE mountain that won’t be climbed.  Taking the points and the Charlotte 49ers.

iamhuge
iamhuge

ole miss +12 @ TEXAS A&M – Texas A&M is a less than remarkable 5-4 this season.  Ole Siss is also 5-4 this season.  Both teams are good.  Neither team is very good.  You certainly can’t trust either team so – when in doubt – take the points.

Now Texas A&M has played a brutal schedule, with 6 of their 9 games against teams in the top 20.  Not surprisingly, their record is only  2-4 against those teams and both of those wins were squeakers.  In fact the only time that Texas A&M covered this 12 point margin against an FBS team was against Louisiana Monroe, who barely counts as an FBS team (Ole Miss beat Louisiana Monroe by like 50).

On the other side of the coin, Ole Siss doesn’t need to win the game for me to get paid.  That’s good when their offense is averaging 39 points per game as the back door cover is alive until the final bell. Ole Miss hammered a strong Texas Tech squad in week 1 and they also slapped around a few patsies.  In their two games against teams that are ranked similar to A&M, they lost by 15 to Auburn and by only 4 points last week to South Carolina – a game they really should have won.  Texas A&M also should have beaten Auburn last week…so I would expect a tightly fought contest which bodes well for the double digit doggie.  Loving the points and the Rebs.

iamhuge
iamhuge

new mexico +13.5 @ AIR FORCE – If you want to relive the story of the tortoise and the hare, look no further than the offense of the Air Force Falcons.  They are the tortoise.  They try to run the ball, but they never score.  The have only beaten 2 FBS teams this year (Navy and UNLV).  Neither of these teams are as good as the Lobos.  Against UNLV, Air Force didn’t even cover the spread.    So in 8 games against FBS opponents, Air Force only covered this spread once.  Against Army, they only scored 14 points.  It’s pretty hard to cover 13.5 when you’re only scoring 14.  I watched that game beginning to end, and Air Force looked really bad.  They can’t pass at all…at all.

New Mexico has a fairly balanced offense, and in their 9 games, they have covered this spread 6 times.  Four of New Mexico’s games were against teams in the top 50.  Air Force is ranked around 100.  New Mexico has played 5 teams ranked 100 or worse.  Against those five teams, they have a record of 3-2 and have covered the 13.5 points 5 out of the 5 games.  The odds, as they like to say, are in your favor.

Air Force is home, but they hold very little altitude advantage over the Lobos, who also play their home games at altitude.  I wouldn’t be surprised if New Mexico goes in and steals a win…but I’ll be satisfied with the cover.  Taking the Lobos and the points.

iamhuge
iamhuge

north texas -14.5 @ OLD DOMINIONNot too long ago, the North Texas Mean Green stood on top of the Group of 5 mountaintop with a nifty QB and a big win over Arkansas to brag about.  Now everyone knows Arkansas is ass and North Texas dropped a couple of games and has fallen off of the radar.  The good news is that their offense is still really really good, and if they play an ass team, they can still put up a lot of points and get an easy cover.  Most recently, they beat Rice by 24, Southern Siss by 23 and Liberty by 40.  Of course, Rice is better than nobody, but the other two teams are better than ODU.  On top of that, the aforementioned 27 point win over Arkansas, a 23 point over SMU – two more teams that are better than ODU – makes a strong case for a cover here.

But what of the Monarchs?   Well, they lost to Liberty by 42, lost to FAU by 19, lost to Marshall by 22 and lost to MTSU by 34 last week.  None of these teams are better than North Texas.  ODU essentially blew their wad when they beat Virginia Tech.  It was a win that made their season.  There is nothing left of their season.  They are giving up 40 points per game.  The Mean Green is averaging 38 points per game.  They are coming off a bye and certainly will be looking to ring the bell here.  Chalk this one up as a blowout.     Lay the wood..collect your cash.

iamhuge
iamhuge

arkansas state -7 @ COASTAL CAROLINA – who gives a flying fuck at a rolling donut about Arkansas St and Coastal Carolina?  The people who bet on the game.  Actually Coastal Carolina rocks…it’s located right on Myrtle Beach and there are bikinis galore there.  But enough about that.  Which is the better team?  Arkansas State or Arkansas?  Surprise!  Arkansas St is better than its SEC cousin, Arkansas.  Actually in Arkansas, everyone is a cousin.  But never mind that.   Arkansas State is 5-4 this season.  If you don’t count the games they played against teams that are better than Coastal Caroline, their record is 5-1.   In those 5 wins, their margin of victory has been 27 points, 9, points, 7 points, 16 points and 24 points.  So they have no problem winning by a touchdown or more.

Coastal Carolina is also 5-4 on the season,  but when they play a decent team, they lose.  They lost by 34 points to South Carolina, 24 points to Troy, 25 points to ULM and 16 points to App State.  They don’t know how to lose games close.  They don’t know how to cover. 

Coastal Carolina prefers to run the ball, and for good reason – they can’t pass with their freshman QB.  This late in the season that doesn’t work.  Arkansas State will load the box, and then that’s all she wrote.  Coastal Carolina defense gives up 442 yards per game, so Ark State won’t have any problem scoring.  If they score a lot, they’ll cover.    Last year, Arkansas State won this game 51-17.  .  Laying the 7 points on the Red Wolves of Arkansas State.

iamhuge
iamhuge

and Ohio loses...0-1 out of the gate...doh!

iamhuge
iamhuge

Quote Originally Posted by Dougayvhu5q8be:

Check out the guys I hear on the radio here in Houston, they give picks for free by text message:    You Just Text NCAA to 555999 You Get Their Wednesday Night Whack The Book Blowout ABSOLUTELY FREE!!!!   Just Text NCAA to 555999   I Already Texted And Got My Play For FREE!!!!

What's the fun in betting if you just blindly follow someone else's picks?  You might as well invest in the stock market.  The fun is in doing the analysis and seeing your thoughts confirmed...that's the challenge!

iamhuge
iamhuge

just saying....

iamhuge
iamhuge

northwestern +10 @ IOWA – When I watch Northwestern football, the Wildcats remind me of the Matt Damon character when he plays Texas Holdem against Teddy KGB in the movie Rounders.  He keeps, “hanging around, hanging around, hanging around”.  Given Iowa’s ponderous and erratic offense, this is just too many points.  Last week, Notre Dame outplayed Northwestern, but they only beat them by 10 points.  I’m pretty sure the Irish are better than the Hawkeyes.

Iowa has played 3 teams equal or better to Northwestern this season (Iowa State, Wisconsin, Penn State and Purdue) and they went 1-3 in those games with their victory over Iowa State by 10 points.  Certainly no blowouts against tough teams, which Northwestern is.  Northwestern has played 5 teams equal or better to Iowa this season (Purdue, Michigan, Michigan St, Wisconsin and Notre Dame) and they went 3-2 in those games .  The two losses were by 3 points (to Michigan) and 10 points (to Notre Dame).  The Wildcats have lost only one game by more than 10 points this season.  It’s hard to see Iowa scoring more than 30 points in this game, since Notre Dame struggled to do so.  So you’re really threading a needle to figure out how they get up by 10 in this game.

Taking the points and the ‘Cats.    

iamhuge
iamhuge

DUKE -10.5 vs north Carolina – This game is intriguing in that if you look at the offensive and defensive statistics of these teams, they look very similar.    Both Duke and UNC have played schedules that are remarkably similar in strength.  Both teams average around 400 yards per game on offense and give up around 400 yards per game on defense.  Both teams play in the ACC.  Both teams are from North Carolina.  Both schools are great academic institutions.

The similarities end there.   Duke is 6-3 on the year.  UNC is 1-7.  There is a reason for this.  One team is pretty good, the other team not so much.  Duke’s QB Daniel Jones is being touted as a first round draft pick.  UNC has a never round draft pick at QB (UNC is ranked 117 in passing efficiency).  Duke is the home team..it’s a game they always get fired up for.  Duke won last year’s game by 10 and Duke is better this year than they were last year, North Carolina is not nearly as good.

Duke has won 5 games against teams that are ranked higher than UNC.  In those 5 games, Duke has covered the 10.5 points in four of those five games.    This will be the second toughest game that UNC has played all year, and they have lost 6 of their 7 previous games including double digit losses against 2 teams that Duke has already beaten (Georgia Tech, Miami).    With UNC’s defense giving up 35 points per game, this should be a big day for Jones as he creates window dressing for the pro scouts.  Laying the wood on the Blue Devils.

iamhuge
iamhuge

Miami’s injury report is a medical train wreck:

11/05/18          DB       De'Andre Montgomery            Undisclosed     is "?" Wednesday vs Ohio

11/05/18          LB       Junior McMullen         Undisclosed     is out for season

11/04/18          DB       Daryus Thompson       Undisclosed     is "?" Wednesday vs Ohio

11/04/18          DB       Deondre Daniels          Undisclosed     is "?" Wednesday vs Ohio

11/04/18          DL       Isaac Hampton Undisclosed     is "?" Wednesday vs Ohio

Ohio is coming in hot on a 3 game win streak.  Miami OH has been playing better, but they are not the better team.  Ohio has been able to run the ball really well all season (averaging 236 yards per game), and they are also tough stopping the run.  Miami OH only averages 145 yards per game on the ground.  Since Ohio can control the line of scrimmage, it’s unlikely that the game gets flukey.  I’m happy to take the better team in this contest with such a tiny point spread to cover.  Go Bobcats.

 

iamhuge
iamhuge

ohio -3.5 @ MIAMI OHit’s always good to get in on some MACtion early in the week, and certainly this game in particular.  When it comes to this series over the last decade, Ohio has been beating Miami OH like a red headed step child, covering this spread in 8 of the last 10 meetings.  The Bobcats were really used to pouring firewater on the Indians, but then political correctness meant that Miami OH would now be the Redhawks.  That didn’t help their football team any. 

This year it’s not going to be much better for Miami OH.  The Bobcats are 6-3 on the season, but their 3 losses were to teams far better than Miami OH (Virginia, Cincinnati and Northern Illinois).  Their 6 victories have been very convincing.    They have covered this 3.5 point spread in 5 of their 6 victories with their margin of victory being 23.5 ppg in those wins. 

If you want to look at head to head, it favors Ohio also.  Ohio beat Western Michigan by 45 points.  Western Michigan beat Miami OH.   Ohio beat Soylent Green by 35 points.  Miami beat them also, but only by 15 points.  Both teams lost to Cincinnati, but Ohio lost by 4, Miami lost by 21. 

 

iamhuge
iamhuge

Here are my week 11 picks...will provide write ups in the days ahead:

ohio -3.5 @ MIAMI OH

DUKE -10.5 vs north carolina

northwestern +10 @ IOWA

arkansas state -7 @ COASTAL CAROLINA

north texas -14.5 @ OLD DOMINION

new mexico +13.5 @ AIR FORCE

ole miss +12 @ TEXAS A&M

charlotte +14.5 @ MARSHALL

 

best of luck to all

ckattar8
ckattar8

I don't think Clemson can protect Sunshine.  I am sure Saban will roll the dice and come after him.  I think Michigan vs Clemson would be a great game.

iamhuge
iamhuge

Feeling blesses the Tennessee game wasn't on TV.  What a horrible pick that was.  They couldn't run the ball against Charlotte.

iamhuge
iamhuge

Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:

Keep up great work... you mean 42-33 (typo above).good luck next week - maybe i will run into you in AC some weekend.

 

yessir. 42-33 ytd

iamhuge
iamhuge

Tulsa and bama easily cover for a 4-4 week and 42-32 ytd.  Army should have covered but I am still grateful for their service.

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