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fastbreaker
fastbreaker
only Hidden Scroll and Maximum Security have cracked 100 and Hidden Scroll's Beyer is suspect because he got loose on the lead with weak competition in the slop.  Maximum Security's big Beyer was at 7 furlongs, a sprint so it doesn't really count. there's a pretty fair chance he's just a sprinter.

Haikal got only a 95 and Tacitus only a 93 for their wins yesterday


https://www1.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer
fastbreaker
fastbreaker
I don't see the fast splits in the F.O.Y. as being a legitimate excuse.

To me, it looked like he didn't like the longer distance and the higher quality horses breathing down his neck

if he can't hold his speed for 8.5 furlongs what chance does he have to hold his speed for 10 furlongs?

slim and none
fastbreaker
fastbreaker
on another forum a poster made an NBA pick on an under the first day back from the All Star game - saying he hoped the shooters would be cold after the break

except for the ones who were All Stars they hadn't played in a real game for almost a week

it sounded to me like a good angle - like something like that might not be totally factored into the odds - I never thought of that angle before

so, anyway I checked and on the first day back which was 2-21:

it doesn't prove anything but on this day the unders went 5-1

not only that but every single under that won won by double digits - and 2 of them won by about 20 points
fastbreaker
fastbreaker
very interesting (to me).it's very rare but it does happen.  found a 1995 column by Andrew Beyer claiming you can guarantee a win in a minus show pool when the big horse has 96.6% (my calculation) of the money in the pool bet on it.

a couple of points:

because of the change to net pool pricing from standard pool pricing when the article was written the bettor gains.  in Beyer's article the other 2 horses only paid $2.10 when the big horse showed.  Bellafina created a minus pool at Santa Anita on 2/9, she showed and the other 2 horses paid $2.40 and $3.20 because of net pool pricing.

But the more interesting point is that Beyer is actually wrong.  You can't guarantee a win because if 2 horses are longshots in the show pool and they don't come in you may not have a profit.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/1995/10/03/heavy-bets-offer-a-little-show-and-tell/e1b7679e-4200-44f6-abe6-573696a9db26/?utm_term=.14ad211178db
fastbreaker
fastbreaker
downthestretchs.com offers an assortment of free PPs from Brisnet

the Equibase charts now have speed figures which means although it takes more time to click on each horse in a race than a PP you can get all of the same info and some info that is better than in the PPs from their charts which are free

the speed figures for Brisnet and Equibase are surely not as good as Beyers in the DRF but IMO the difference is so small it is insignificant
fastbreaker
fastbreaker
the Nuggets are 13-3 at home and 8-7 away

last season they were 31-10 at home and 15-26 away
that's really extreme - I don't think I've even ever seen a college record that extreme

I wrote a poem about them just for you guys

it's called:

                          THE DENVER NUGGETS


Where the air is thin
The home team usually wins



I'm hoping the literary community will take notice and nominate me for a Robert Frost award
fastbreaker
fastbreaker
The filly Enable won Europe's most prestigious race, Le Prix de L'arc De Triomphe in Paris last Sunday for the 2nd year in a row.
She is one of the greatest fillies of all time. 

She's won 8 races in a row, the last 7 being Grade 1s.
In many of those races she ran against males and humiliated them.

She is most likely headed to The Breeders Cup Turf race and she will probably be the most heralded superstar in all of the races over the weekend.

She will very likely be a favorite to beat the boys in this classic race. 

This year, the race is being held at Churchill Downs in Louisville so I'm praying there won't be rain that ruins the turf or forces them to take it off the turf. Recently it's been run in CA where there is very little chance of that.

Her jock is Frankie Dettori who is one of the greatest turf jockeys out there.

I'm not saying she's an advantage play, she will surely be bet pretty far down.

I'd be shocked if she finished worse than 3rd.

She is regarded by many as being "The Greatest Racehorse in the World" right now although some might give that title to the mare Winx. 

Even without betting this race will be very fun to watch.



On the downside it's possible she won't like or react well to the very long trip over here. I doubt that will be a factor but it's always a possibility.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/oct/07/enable-joins-horse-racing-greats-frankie-dettori-prix-de-larc-de-triomphe-win-horse-racing




fastbreaker
fastbreaker
I'm betting that the Browns and Baker Mayfield are for real.
fastbreaker
fastbreaker
one more pick for 6/26

Angels....................+ 155
fastbreaker
fastbreaker
MLB Betting / MLB Picks 6/26 / View Post
thanks dcgmt

one mor pick for 6/26 -

Marlins..................+160
fastbreaker
fastbreaker
from best line at vegasinsider.com
all bets for $100 for accounting purposes

Pirates..................+115
Reds.....................+138
Cubs.....................+145
Rockies.................+120
Orioles..................+133

may post Marlins game later - no line yet
fastbreaker
fastbreaker
results 6/25 picks:

3-5 - ($128) based on $100 bets

includes Cubs game that was put on another thread
fastbreaker
fastbreaker
Cubs..............+150
fastbreaker
fastbreaker
all bets from best line vegasinsider.com at time of posting
all bets for $100 for accounting purposes

Marlins............... + 115
Reds...............    + 138
Orioles............... + 125
Phillies............... + 125
Padres............... + 140
Cardinals........... + 115
Royals;.............. + 152


may post cubs game later - no line right now
fastbreaker
fastbreaker
thanks for the good advice.  yeah, I''m not going to take out a 2nd mortgage.  I just juiced up my words a little.  I will make what is my largest bet but not one that will destroy me or knock me out of the game if I lose.  
fastbreaker
fastbreaker
early odds from vegas for Wednesday's game has the Warriors -4.5.

I'll definitely take the Cavs.

I think the public is mistaken if they don't think the Cavs can compete strongly in Cleveland.

this is going to be my empty the wallet bet. I'll take a plunge. hope I don't drown.
fastbreaker
fastbreaker
Quote Originally Posted by bum:

an_light


some good answers - but look at it from another point of view

a guy plays craps and only bets pass

the house edge against a pass line bet is 1.4%

but this guy tells you that's not right because that doesn't count the many rolls that do not resolve the bet which are basically the same as pushes

he tells you he's figured out the average no. of rolls to resolve the bet and that the house edge against him is only 1.2% (just an estimate).

nobody's going to accept that.  everybody will say it's nonsense.
fastbreaker
fastbreaker
If you wanted to report your ROI betting against the spread and your record was 50-40-10 would it be more accurate and better or insignificant if you included pushes in the reporting.  If you bet a dime ($1,110) on each bet you would have won $6,000.  If you report that you had bet $110,000 (100*$1100) then you would report that your ROI was 5.4%.  If you ignore pushes then you would report that you bet $99,000 ($1,100*90) and that your ROI was 6%.  Pushes did not cost you money but they cost you time.  If you report pushes it looks like they cost you money; that your ROI was less.
..........So which way is bettor or more accurate to report.  Or is it insignificant.  My own feeling is that it is better not to consider pushes when reporting your ROI.  But I'm not really 100% sure.  Thanks.
fastbreaker
fastbreaker
betting against the Caps in a very big game


EASY MONEY


fastbreaker
fastbreaker
They always fold.  That is their history.
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