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Thread Author DogbiteWilliams Post Entries
DogbiteWilliams
DogbiteWilliams
Red Zone Failures

Take a PO dog that forced more DEF RZF's in the previous game than their opponent did.

ATS:   38-22-3 (2.36, 63.3%)

My 3BO variant for this particular SB

I can't come up with the SDQL to check Wild Bill's 3 Blowouts system and that NE 19-point victory made me queasy, so I just did what I could.  I dropped a few early games when NE was playing like crap and included the PO games because I don't know how to exclude them.  I added a defensive parameter and got this QR fading PO favorites:

ATS:   6-23-1 (-6.20, 20.7%)

Take LAR.

I just bet one unit on the Rams.  There are injury uncertainties and I don't know if both teams' DEF PO strength against the run will continue (they were both poor in the regular season).

Good luck everybody.  Enjoy the game which I might not watch until Monday.  I have an important social obligation on Sunday and I probably won't return to my apartment until after 10 P.M., which is too late to watch TV in consideration of my neighbors.
DogbiteWilliams
DogbiteWilliams
Conference Round results

L6S, L6S+, L6SX:   no pla
ys
L7S+:   0-1

3BO:   no plays

DBW:   0-4

Well, that was depressing.  Luckily there is only one game to screw up this week

Super Bowl picks:

L6S, L6S+, L6SX, L7S+:   no plays

3BO:   LAR with an * - As I mentioned in the initial comment, LAR is now the only surviving 3BO team, but NE has 2.95 blowouts (two 20+ point victories and one 19-point victory), so LAR is kind of a weak pick by this method.

DBW:   LAR   

I will cover some topics and queries seldom discussed; hopefully they may contribute to the Super Bowl results.

Goal To Goal Failures

Both NE and LAR each have two OFF GTCF's in their two playoff games.   Favorites ATS: 1-1   Dogs ATS: 4-0

Both NE and LAR each have no DEF GTGF's in their two PO games.  Favorites ATS: 1-8   Dogs ATS: 6-2

That looks promising for LAR.  Remember, small sample sizes are not reliable, but I would certainly rather have the Rams.

Turnover Margin (TOM)

Very few teams make it to the Super Bowl off a game with more turnovers than takeaways.

playoffs = 1 and site = neutral and p:TOM > 0.5

SU:    0-5
ATS:   0-5

Brady threw 2 INT's against KC whose pass DEF is weaker than the Rams'.  Take LAR.

Dog Rushing

Dogs don't need to bite to triumph; sometimes just running will suffice.  PO dogs that rush for over 85 yards are 84-40-2 ATS.  The average ATS margin is 4.19 points.

Although it's only 3 games, SB dogs off a poor rushing effort of less than 80 yards are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS, with the average ATS margin of 22.5 points.

In the 8 NE Super Bowls, NE yielded 90 or more rushing yards 7 times.  Oddly enough, NE did cover when they gave up 162 rushing yards vs. SEA, who should have rushed just one more time.

Take LAR with the NFL's #1 rushing attack and the #1 OL for run blocking.

LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Quote Originally Posted by imaxfli:

Since Kraft came out with his I LOVE DONALD TRUMP speech. I want the RAMS to win more than any game EVER except when Wisconsin beat Kentucky in the Final 4 in 2015!
FYI:  Bill Belichick and Tom Brady also endorsed Trump.

So did six white supremacist leaders.

Go Rams.  This is not about my wager - some things are far more important than money.
EastsideBangers
EastsideBangers
Solid write-up.

I like LAR, but good luck.
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Congratulations on an excellent season.
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:

i think with 2 weeks off it will help Gurley. i expect him to go at full capacity. biggest game of his career and i would expect nothing less. it was kind of pointless to give Gurley a big workload in the Saints game with the Saints run defense being good.  smart move by McVay to let him rest and i dont think he is bluffing here. if Gurley is maybe only 90% healthy then that should still be good enough. Gurley will be 100% ready to play


Excellent observation.  Per Football Outsiders, NO's DEF was ranked #3 vs. rushing and #22 vs. passing.  McVay chose to pass more often.

He knows what he's doing.
bpickin
bpickin
I like LAR, but good luck, BP.
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
You people are making a mountain out of a molehill.  C.J. Anderson has averaged 6.95 YPC in his two LAR playoff games, and NE is ranked #19 against the rush by Football Outsiders.

CJA's career average against NE is much higher than his average vs. the rest of the league.  LAR may not miss Gurley at all.
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:


I would consider not even posting next year because very few want to give the respect that is deserved. Why should I bother here?
Please keep posting.  Don't let the inconsiderate a*s*s*h*o*l*e*s run your life.
hillardoh1
hillardoh1
TB is 5-3 SU in the SB. He is 1-0 ATS as a dog, 1-0 ATS as a rough pick 'em (-1 to + 1 vs. ATL), and 1-5 and a F of at least 2 points.

team = Patriots and date > 20020101 and week > 21.5

I like the LAR.  Brady and Belichick's alleged superiority is builtinto the line.



Wizz_KIDD35
Wizz_KIDD35
NFL Betting / SUPER BOWL 53 / View Post
I also like LAR.  Good luck; at 47-19 (!!!) you will have many tailers, WK.
scalabrine
scalabrine
Quote Originally Posted by joel00:

One fun trend that favors the bet: teams that were favored by fewer than three points in playoffs games were 6-20-3 ATS (there were only two games that had a -1.5 line though).

Great stat.  Also, teasing the small dog produces a winning leg almost all of the time:  27- 2 (93.1%)
FunkFreaker
FunkFreaker
Quote Originally Posted by FunkFreaker:

Decide to ride with one of my best queries in the first game. Since 2002 playoff underdogs that lost previous game against the same opponent by 9 or more points (Rams) in the same season are 27-12-2 (69.2%) ATS. This cashed twice for me so far in the season (Chargers in WC round and Eagles in Divisional Round). Can't see a reason to stop follow this ATM machine for years. Teams adjust in playoffs and they almost always play better and harder in such revenge situations. Saints have home field and QB advantage but in overall I think Rams team have more balance and they can make more adjustments to different type scenarios in game. Also Drew Brees at home where he almost never lost is laying 3-4 points... that smells big time. This game will be very close. 3 points either way so my money are on

Los Angeles Rams + 3.5


Nice pick.

Congratulations
Macwestie1
Macwestie1
My early lean is LAR.

Good luck.
DogbiteWilliams
DogbiteWilliams
That should have been "Playoff road dogs who lost by at least 10 points on the road during the regular season are only 1-15 SU seeking revenge while coming off a game where they won by less than 10 points."
DogbiteWilliams
DogbiteWilliams
Why I do NOT think LAR will "get revenge."

I just ran the relevant query:

playoffs = 1 and P:LA and P:season = season and p:margin < 9.5 and AD and P:margin < -9.5

The query results (QR's):

SU:   1-15-0 (-9.81, 6.2%)
ATS:   9-6-0 (-1.88, 60.0%)

Playoff road dogs who lost by at least 10 points during the regular season are only 1-15 seeking revenge while coming off a game where they won by less than 10 points.

Maybe LAR will cover the spread, but most of the relevant games featured big pointspreads.  There were only two games where the road dogs got less than 5 points:  the QR's - PHL lost by 20 at DAL and CIN lost by 16 at IND.

A sample size of just 16 games is not that reliable.  A sample size of 20 is required for a valid Z-test, so exercise caution.

Good luck, everybody.

FunkFreaker
FunkFreaker
We split our opinions, but good luck.
EastsideBangers
EastsideBangers
Quote Originally Posted by EastsideBangers:

Sunday 3:05pm EST

New Orleans Saints -3


Sunday 6:40pm EST

Kansas City Chiefs -3

Best of luck 
I am with you on both.  Good luck.
VGPOP
VGPOP
Attention revenge fans:

Maybe the playing surface is more important.  Playoff road dogs playing on artificial after 4 straight on grass are 2-14 SU.

Of those 16 games, the road dog lost 10 of them by 9 points or more which bolsters the case for my NO -8.5/+194 alternate line bet.
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
I have NO and KC, but good luck to you, LC.  You have many tailers. who need your picks to prevail.
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