Recent Posts

Thread Author NinjaNight Post Entries
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Hehe. Odell Beckham to the Browns!

It's looking better and better.

Maybe I am a prophet.
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Hey LC what books do you mostly use?
Hoyasaxa
Hoyasaxa
All I know is the one time I watched a Lonzo Ball game he carried the team and dominated. Very impressive
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Quote Originally Posted by fishmac:

Another thing you may want to consider is :

Do you really need 70% or more win rate ? to Achieve this you will have to make less bets and might end up winning less money than someone who runs at 55% range but spams all the different books with 50 bets per day on quarters players halfs live bets and so on 


When I posted this I was thinking of improving my skill to a level that my 121-83 (59.3%) record becomes a 70% record in the same sample size.

Anyway I have an appointment to get to. Great discussions here will be back later.
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Quote Originally Posted by gutinstinctus:

  For real, 70% is mathematically impossible. And as Miracling said, if you are able to hit 60% sustainably I will tail you blindly and will send you an appreciation sum every month. 

There are different sites that don´t ban you. Most of them limit the maximum bet though. For large markets like spreads and totals pregame they are not harder, just sharper at setting the lines. But their reduced juice makes them as beatable as the ones that aim to the "public". The problem is for smaller markets such as props or for live play, where only a small number of guys get the right price before the lines shift. 

 With effort and discipline you can still make a great living out of this. Im scared that soon it will become borderline unbeatable, but it isn´t there yet. So jump in while you still can. 


I think you're talking about 70% in a much longer time period than 2 months though (around 200 picks)?

If you look at my documented record it's 121-83 (59.3%) so far and that's with plenty of screwing around changing my way of betting. You can't tell me it isn't possible to do 70% in that sample.
But if you still disagree, okay.

That's very nice to hear, I was getting pretty worried about the banning aspect.
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Quote Originally Posted by Miracling2:

“Leans record” and “betting real money record” performance are different man.

Pulse entirely different In choosing picks from real money involve and just leans...

So a lot of factor involve.

60% ? Betting all real money each win or lose in your record?

Call me man. You will be my handicapper if that happens.

I will just sit play your pick everyday, every week i collect imagine that.

Bol man. 



Point well taken and will keep in mind.
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Quote Originally Posted by fishmac:


there are books like pinnacle who dont ban winners but winning there is way harder than for example on williamhill or bet365 . bet365 has like worst odds on the market but its easiest site to get banned on 

What makes pinnacle so much harder? I don't mind being harder just don't ban me for winning.
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Quote Originally Posted by fishmac:


If you bet 1k per bet and make 10 bets a day 55% will get you banned pretty fast 

Hmm that's frustrating...
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Quote Originally Posted by fishmac:

Books ban you for the amounts of actual money won(and cashed out from them) not for your % if you bet 10$ per bet you wont get banned even with 90% ( considering you will have to make very few bets to keep up that percentage ) however if you bet large sums they will ban you for any positive record over couple of months of betting im talking here about most popular online books like 365 williamhill etc.

Ahh, awesome insight thank you. I thought they'd care about percentage even if you aren't winning too much money.
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63:

But now Mr. Ninja, seeing that you are 24 years old makes me now understand your mindset. You have yet to learn the hard way that true wealth generation is statistically and prohibitively unlikely to be achieved in gambling. True wealth is obtained by hard work or owning a business, or investing in the stock markets or real estate. You are setting on a path that has left 99% broken and busted.

Unfortunately, you are under the spell of dreaming of 60%-70% and even 90% win-rates. The end of this story is already written and leaves you doomed before you start. In the event that you are not the sub 1% statistical outlier, just remember that you were warned.

 


Believe it or not I totally understand where you're coming from with this, but experience shows me otherwise. Time will tell.

Sorry for treating you the way I did btw I thought you were trying to be malicious. Just a misunderstanding then.
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Quote Originally Posted by gutinstinctus:

  70% with a significant volume is impossible, trust me. You would have to cherry pick and play 2 bets per week, but then you´d be leaving a ton of value on the table. 

In all honesty,  I know some guys that have been living from this for 5 years+ and they are not in that 60%. Playing -105 or -110, if you are hitting 55% thats a shitload of money. 

Imagine you bet 1k per bet at 1.9 odds on average you hit 60%. After 100 bets you would have a profit of $14k (That would be 14% ROI!!) That is what a very good and risky investment would pay you PER YEAR!


Hmm interesting, I imagined 55% would only be slight profits since -110 means you need 52.4% to break even. Doesn't seem like much. 

The thing is I've accomplished about 60% in 2 months and I'm new to NBA betting. There's no way I'm already anywhere near as good as it gets. So 70% must easily be possible. I don't know what that would translate to over a much longer duration than 2 months though.
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63:

I think once a serious gambler starts putting money on the line and starts factoring in juice and bankroll management while making multiple plays per day, a 60% win-rate turns into an illusion or an oasis so to speak for 99.5% of the gambling population. To make an assertion that a 2-12 month window of results is evidence of a long term statistically reliable 60% win rate over the long term is something only the eventual reality of going broke will disprove. It is statistically unlikely if not impossible that laying 5% or 10% price for the opportunity to double an investment, will result in a predictable and reliable profitable result over the long run. The best cappers in the world struggle to make it to 60%. As far as 70%? I would put that in the same category as an investment broker promising 30% yearly returns or more. The past is littered with those that made those false promises while hiding behind the walls of a ponzi scheme turned into a prison sentence. 

Those that believe in the false promises of great riches awaiting them in the world of gambling, would be better off investing in the casinos and sportsbooks themselves to get on the right side of the numbers. Some people just need to learn for themselves.

 


Oh yea, that's another thing. 60% in 2 months might not be that high over the course of a full season. So there's plenty of room for improvement either way. 
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Quote Originally Posted by baseballfanatic:

NN, 

I'm in agreeance with a lot of the guys who have commented, so please don't take this the wrong way because I'm all for people having vision and going after their goals, and yours is a great goal - however 60% I imagine would be absolute maximum over a sustained period. I'm no maths genius but I understand the basic concepts and you are a statistical CERTAINTY for a run of outs or variance at some point. The reality is you won't be a statistical outlier. You will be unlikely to have a sustained edge over the market.

I'd suggest IF you were able to hit at 70% as stated, you'd not last long because every book would ban or severely limit your action to the point you'd rarely get set. You'd certainly need a team of people placing bets on your behalf.

As I think someone else has mentioned, your best bet to achieve this is to play purely premium plays. That means a lot of patience and knowing where the market has severely overestimated or underestimated a probability of a result. You're therefore looking at unloading on only a few plays a month or maybe a dozen plays in a year at a considerably higher bet size than what you likely are now.

In any event, I really hope you can make a profitable pastime from your punting endeavours.

Best of luck.

 

BF


Based on what I've experienced I can tell way over 60% is possible over a sustained period. Very hard yes but possible. There's too many great spots where the linesmakers were clearly wrong.

Yea the possibility of books banning me is the thing that has plagued my mind since I started this journey. But if I prove I can do 70% in practice I can at least start feeling very confident in my picks.

I think you're underestimating how many strong line value plays exist but I perfectly understand where you're coming from with the purely premium plays thing. That's not necessary.

Nice post though and thanks for the analysis
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Quote Originally Posted by gutinstinctus:

If you are truly hitting 60% on odds of -110 or better, after 100 bets or more, you are KILLING it. Not much to improve. 

70% at odds of -110  is impossible and more so in NBA. Seriously, even Pinnacle would ban you with that record.  

I´ve made 65k in a year, where I started with 5k. NBA has been a friggin grind filled with ups and downs. This season, I would think that my ROI in NBA is 2% at best. Im quite sure Im running well below EV, but still... 

Again, 10% is insane. Keep it up. I know you are young and I see great potential for you in this and in NFL! darn em haters.  


Hmm yea books banning is my biggest worry. How quickly would they ban for 70%? It's not even close to impossible, trust me. I'm convinced a perfect capper would be at least in the 90%'s by picking the best spots. 

Nevertheless being capable of that would make me way more confident in the picks I choose. 60% feels like a ton of losses and I feel like I'm doing poorly.

You're right I'm only 24 years old. Thanks a lot for the thoughts, very helpful post to put things in perspective.
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Add 3/3/19: 2-1 to the record
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Quote Originally Posted by masterkush:

Also remember NN. Records can be misleading. I've seen guys with shitty records up a lot of units. This was achieved by winning the games that mattered with a lot more at risk...  so a record can be misleading. Either way, good luck bro.

Oh yea I know, that's why I switched my style to equal units on every bet. That way winning percentage is what matters.
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Quote Originally Posted by knight703:

an_cheers exactly. 


Whatever. Another future admirer who can shoo off. Why did you even click the thread?

I posted this so people who follow me are aware and aren't wondering why I suddenly disappeared.
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Quote Originally Posted by masterkush:

You have a lot to learn if you think 60% is bad. I have no personal issues with you at all so please don't take it the wrong way. You also have left out your yearly record.... by doing so it has built you a reputation that I don't think you deserve. I'm not bashing you for wanting to be better....  but posting a full season at 70% at the amount games you play is highly unlikely. I personally believe 70% can be achieved but only at a lower number of games. Maybe I'm wrong. Capping isn't easy and some of the best cappers on here would love to hit 60%, myself included. Good luck to you NN and I really hope you achieve your goals. But 60% isn't bad at all.....

Posted a comprehensive record in my thread yesterday.

I know 60% isn't bad but I'm working towards great not merely "not bad." And I meant at least 70% in the 2 months that I've been posting. 

I strongly believe I'll have better results in the long run by doing it this way. When I began posting this season I only meant to test the waters anyway and see how I do.

Thanks!
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Also I would keep posting but I'm mostly focused on the long term and I think everyone will be better off long term if I do it this way. Matters more than what could be gained from continuing to post. Cheers
NinjaNight
NinjaNight
Quote Originally Posted by umgmu:

NN,

Why are you stressing over what people care on Here.
Some do, some don't.

Those who provide value gain a following 
 60% is terrific.
70, even better.

You should keep po otting imho but do what you need to do.
Emkee was a big contributor here...believe that.

I don't really stress over it much. I just try to counter it because people could be misled. 

Thanks!

And I don't care who he is. No one person can speak for the entire forum, you understand? No one.
Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View