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Indigo999

Indigo999
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Indigo999 replied to week 6 Indigo lines
in CFL

It's got to be an ego thing where these British books are saying..."we will win and we will not let you win".

whereas pinnacle is saying "you can win as much as you want if you are good enough."

8
Indigo999 replied to CGY should cover vs. HAM
in CFL

Use queries with a bigger game history EVERY time over smaller higher percentage queries.

You've proven to yourself that 70% smaller sample systems are not predictable or effective.

6
Indigo999 replied to week 6 Indigo lines
in CFL

I would say that the difference in Pinnacle and the British bookies is this.....Pinnacle doesn't care about profit margin, but cares about volume.  If they can bring in 10 billion dollars every year and make a profit of 4-5%, that is 500 million dollars of profit.

The British books have to be more concerned with margin or profit percentage.  They would want maybe a 7-8% margin, but they would lose customers and lose volume by doing so.  They would take in much, much less money but have a higher profit percentage.  Ultimately they would have much less profit than the pinnacles of the world, because they would have a small percentage of a total betting population than pinnacle....it's a flawed strategy, but hey they're millionaires, just not multi-millionaires.

It is similar to Walmart who now is one of the biggest, most profitable companies in the world...we are going to sell 100 million toothbrushes with a 10% profit per item sold, and if you want to sell 100 toothbrushes at 50% mark-up, "be my guest".

8
Indigo999 replied to week 6 Indigo lines
in CFL

They have the smartest bettors in the world punting at pinnacle, and yet they haven't changed in >20 years, and they are the biggest bookmaker in the world to my knowledge.   If that was a poor business model, pinnacle would be long gone.  It is not so different from Walmart in the USA, where you know you're going to get the best deal and so what if you want to buy 100 packages of toilet paper?  They will say, "No worries, but perhaps you should get that bowel problem checked."...haha.

Yet, there aren't many other bookies that are modeling their success, which is soooo strange to me.  The pinnacle model is the antithesis to the British model of outlawing/limiting winners and taking no risk whatsoever.   That strategy is the "no balls" bookmaking model, which I would say 90% of bookmakers utilize.  Well,  "nothing ventured, nothing gained Buddy".  Those types are the ones that need to market, because smart punters that may win some of the time, flee from them to go to customer friendly pinnacle type books.  And by customer friendly, obviously I don't mean they are really nice to talk to (which most aren't anyway), I mean they are offering punters fair lines, they know that in some cases the player will win and don't sweat it, because they know they have a house advantage and 96% of punters lose...."why worry about the 4%?"

Aces Gold by the way, went broke when offering vig free Super Bowl betting when the Rams played the Patriots (the infamous time when Belichek had spies watch the Rams pre-Super Bowl practices and stole some of their play signals).  The head guy made the Pats +14.5 point dogs when the consensus line was 14.  Every punter that wanted the Patriots bet on them at Aces Gold and Mr. Big had several million dollars exposure on the Patriots...in other words, he was punting himself on the Rams.

The rest is history, as the Patriots won 20-17 and the Aces Gold head guy disappeared, never to be heard from again.  Perhaps he ended up wearing concrete shoes at the botoom of a body of water, courtesy of some irate bettors who didn't get paid on their winning Patriots' bets.

8
Indigo999 replied to week 6 Indigo lines
in CFL

It is looking likely that the days of receiving  CFL lines from the bookmakers on Mondays will be a thing of the past.  Those lines that are put out late signify that the bookies are at least leery, and more probably getting beat.  It is similar with the WNBA that are sometimes put out a couple hours before the game. 

I've contemplated their strategy...why not delete those games altogether?  Perhaps they don't want to admit defeat, or possibly in the past they did win, but so so far this season have lost.   As the public has gotten educated, the use of quant mathematics using computers,, bettors computational and situational  skills have gotten better, and they are possibly now enough smart people in the game defeating the bookies to make the games they offer not profitable.

The house has a small advantage in sports betting, as it does with blackjack...however there were punters that came up with a card counting system in blackjack that when the deck was overloaded with aces, that the punter increased his bets to take advantage of the increased likelihood of getting blackjack so that for small instances of time  the casinos were at an actual disadvantage.  There were blackjack teams that went into casinos for a 10 year time span and cleaned up.  All of that process has been documented in a few books, and largely had its heyday in the 1980s-1990s.  If one staggers their bets in blackjack at a casino now, you are very likely to get tossed out and asked not to come back...perhaps they are British casino owners that now run sportsbooks...haha.

I would say another reason they are waiting, is that bettors bet, and bookmakers  don't offer CFL or WNBA games right away, that leaves bettors with the  inclination to bet other more profitable sports for bookies like baseball, ice hockey and other pro footballs.  If that is fact a consideration, it is a brilliant strategy.  No one ever said that bookmakers were not savvy and given the chance to take advantage of punters' weaknesses of needing action, they will take that advantage EVERY TIME.

From a punter's view, it's aggravating, because bookies are millionaires as long as they don't do something stupid like betting themselves.  In the early 2000s there was a offshore bookie called Aces Gold, that was similar to Pinnacle...they offered no-limit betting, and on Fridays of the NFL season they offered no vig betting, which was like a "too good to be true" scenario...you were getting -100 to win a hundred.  It was an indictment on the public that he could offer those types of lines and still be profitable.  Pinnacle says basically the same thing...."we are going to offer you -105/-106 on almost everything and we'll let you win as much as you like, and we know from experience that there will be more losers than winners".  

It's brilliant.

 

8
Indigo999 replied to week 6 Indigo lines
in CFL

Typically teams play well the week after they "shoulda, coulda, woulda won"

Teams falling into that category this week are Calgary and the Riders.   Obviously the Riders got smoked last time out, but they were in a very good situation.  

It may awhile for the Lions to have bettable lines as the public is enamored with Riley who's been a good CFL quarterback...unfortunately for him, he's got no support this year and any team with a good defensive line is gonna terrorize him. 

We'll follow how Stanbeck, the running back for Montreal is this coming week.  They've been bad for so long, that again, it may take awhile for the bookmakers to adjust.  The line in the Alouette/Eskimo game will be the most intriguing of all of the CFL lines.  The Eskimos have looked awfully good this year and the linemaker could make this anywhere from -4 to +4.

Teams off an away dog win when the line was >6 have been 6-2 ATS...Alouettes

 

 

 

8
Indigo999 created a topic week 6 Indigo lines
in CFL

17-14 ATS season to date, 2-5 ATS last week.

Horrendous week, we move on.

Stamps        -14     Argos       49

Bombers .     -11    Redblacks 52

Alouettes      pik    Eskimos   55  

Roughriders -10    Lions        49

 

Super impressive performance by the Alouettes, though I am not sold on Vernon Adams yet...he could have been picked off quite a few times versus the Redblacks.  Their new middle linebacker and safety have solidified their team.  Their new defensive coordinator is top notch.  Their play calling, which was so terrible for at least two years, now looks very good.

Possibly the Redblacks will suffer from the championship loser syndrome this year, as they look like a bottom 3 team, along with the Lions and Argos.

Arbuckle for the Stamps looked looked good, obviously their special teams blew the cover and the game for them...and the Argos special teams also were terrible. 

 

 

 

8
Indigo999 replied to Indigo week 5
in CFL

2-5 for the week.

 

 

62
Indigo999 replied to Indigo week 5
in CFL

Congratulate me AFTER the game if you want....nothing is "on track",...we either win at the end of the game, or we don't.

62
Indigo999 replied to Indigo week 5
in CFL

16-16 at half time...crazy game, CFL at its finest.

We won't assume anything for the second half, except the unexpected

These two teams have not ANYTHING on offense.  The kickers have been abysmal and I don't think I've ever seen three special teams touchdowns in a half.

 

62
Indigo999 replied to Indigo week 5
in CFL

1)  Eskimos UNDER winner

2)  Argos +15' loser

3)  Argos UNDER loser

4)  Alouettes +9'  winner

5)  Alouettes UNDER 51' loser

62
Indigo999 replied to Indigo week 5
in CFL

9-9 at half time...Montreal defense has been very good....Vernon Adams some questionable throws.  Montreal winning the running game which is good for covering purposes.

62
Indigo999 replied to Saturday Dubya Indigo line
in WNBA

Play:

Vegas +4'

Vegas falls into a 53-28 ATS angle that says to take the away non-conference dog in July who had a worse record last year than their present opponent.

Good fortune.

4
Indigo999 created a topic Saturday Dubya Indigo line
in WNBA

The Aces have been productive on the court, they just don't blow teams out as they should, letting inferior opponents take them to the wire.  Liz is nowhere what she was a year ago, so credit to Fred Williams for what he did with her last year in Dallas.  Liz could be the Shaquille O'Neil/Wilt Chamberlain of woman's basketball, but the game comes easily to her and she's too busy being friends with everyone, including her opponents, to be the superheroine that she could/should be.  If she had just 10% of her coach's mentality when he played, she would be the best woman's basketball player in history.  Alas, those that don't have a lot of talent, make up for it by being savage and aggressive and those that have all the talent often just skate by.  Kelsey Plum has been bad as the ball handler for the Aces and if they had even an average point guard they'd win the title.  McBride is very capable but has not gotten near enough shots as she should.

Besides the Sparks who have about 10 different personalities as a team depending on what  day it is this year in the W, the Mystics maybe are seeing the same psychiatrist and taking the same medication.  They blow out the Sun by about 40 and then get blown out twice in succession after Della Donne goes out with a bloody nose.  Ariel Atkins has been super impressive this year, easily the best player off the bench in the league and I would make her an all-star....other than that, everyone else has been up and then down and then up.  For most bettors that are male, it brings the age-old question of where exactly the headspace is of those women closest to us.  If we were geniuses at it, in this case of trying to make money at it, we should be rich.  Perhaps we should take the same pill as they are to get on the same wavelength.  Is that your secret Brutal Joe?

Mystics -4   164

4

Bills should be good as dogs this year as Allen is still young enough to run at first opportunity,...this alone should give them the rushing yards edge, and dogs that win the rushing yards battle cover 74% of the time in the NFL.

If Allen can complete some 10+ yard passes this season they'll be in the playoffs.

9
Indigo999 replied to Indigo week 5
in CFL

Adding:

6)  Montreal +9'

7)  Calgary OVER 55'

 

62
Indigo999 replied to Indigo week 5
in CFL

When you allow two 80+ returns and turn it over, you are not covering.  Bethel-Thompson still a country mile better than Franklin.

1) Edmonton UNDER winner

2) Toronto +15' loser

3) Toronto UNDER loser

Plays:

4)  Montreal UNDER 51

5)  Calgary +4

 

62
Indigo999 replied to Friday
in WNBA

Well Brutal, you can call me Indigo, but NOT Inigo nor "LateForDinner".

You are having a season for the ages, and I never get jealous of anyone, but I am a bit envious  at the season you are putting together.

I root for you, and would read your stuff even if you were 40%, instead of  60 because you can entertain as well as rock it when making your plays.

That combination is rare,........ puff your chest out once in awhile, but of course the gambling gods are watching to see how you handle success.  

I am with you on your Sky over 1st half again today.

 

11
Indigo999 replied to Friday
in WNBA

Plays:

1)  Fever OVER 156'

2)  Sun -5

3)  Wings +5'

11
Indigo999 replied to Indigo week 5
in CFL

Here's another query for you data types.

Play on an away dog in game number 1-5 that missed the playoffs last year versus a team that made the playoffs.

38-25 ATS.....Argos and Alouettes

tpS(playoffs)=0  and opS(playoffs)>0 and game number<7 and AD 

If the team they are playing has not lost this moves to 13-5 ATS, versus Bombers

If our play ON team has not won yet, this is also 13-5 ATS, 7-1 ATS (6-2 straight up) after game 1.....ON Argonauts

 

62
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Thread Title Last Activity Created Posts
BUFFALO BILLS in WEEKS ONE and TWO July 16, 2019 9
week 6 Indigo lines July 15, 2019 8
CGY should cover vs. HAM July 15, 2019 6
Indigo week 5 July 13, 2019 62
CFL -5 July 13, 2019 9
Saturday Dubya Indigo line July 13, 2019 4
Friday July 12, 2019 11
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