Recent Posts

Thread Author Indigo999 Post Entries
Polar_Bear
Polar_Bear

Nice job Buddy......put some in a coffee can and bury it in your backyard.

Stopdabookie
Stopdabookie

Using the whowins website....teams winning on the road in game one of a playoff series have a 35-106 straight up record in game two in the NBA....that equates to an average loss of 7.5 points, which is pretty close to where the line is....the books have quant-types  and computers that know all of that type of stuff...and it's up to us to know it as well.

Indigo999
Indigo999

The kewlest forum on covers becomes a ghost town in the off-season.  I have 4 minutes and 23 seconds of extra time on my hands and thought I'd ramble....already futures up on the CFL......I was a lover of Hamilton all last season, and I felt a hurt that has scarred me that they could not come through for me.

The biggest news is the quarterbacks changing teams and some interesting coaching moves.  Jones is gone from Saskatchewan and the never ending saga of "who's the quarterback?" looks like it continues on in Riderville.  I don't give them a chance this year, as Jones, Claybrooks of Calgary and Steinhauer of Hamilton have been the best defensive minds in the CFL....I don't envision the replacement for Jones will be near what he brought to the table.

Claybrooks becomes the BC head guy and gets a top 2 quarterback in Riley to move from Edmonton.  They instantly move into the top two or three favorites to win the Grey Cup.  Subtracting Jonathan Jennings from the roster instantly makes the Lions 7 points better, and their defense will be among the best in the CFL by the middle of the year.  I'd  consider them playoff worthy and a dangerous team.  And for bettor's sake, lets hope that some (dumb) team gets enamored with Jennings "amazing physical tools"  and "great potential" so we can all make some money betting against him again  this season.

In the East, Steinhauer becomes the head coach, and Hamilton will be the favorite to win the east.  Who is going to play quarterback for the other East franchises?  Perhaps Trevor Harris was a product of good coaching and another one can play the part of a system quarterback in Ottawa.  There are no excuses in Hamilton this year....they should walk away with the East,....Montreal has a chance to be big improvers this year, and pointspread darlings.....shame about them  being absolutely shafted in the Johnny Manziel trade, which was more like the Louisiana Purchase.

Calgary is older and I expect a subpar record against the spread record this year....defending champs often let bettors down their following season,...unless they come as underdogs, I won't be too interested in them.

I pick Winnipeg and BC to battle for top spot in the West.  Would love it if the Bombers traded Matt Nichols to some needy team like the Argos and let Chris Streveler run the team, as he would put the Bombers over the top.  GMs tend to love the tried and true though, how else does one explain the retreads that we constantly see getting money to throw a football around in the CFL, like James Franklin and Brandon Bridge?

I repeat myself often when commenting in threads here, the CFL is the greatest league in the history of sports to bet on, if one bets blindly on underdogs and UNDERs.  Anyone who wishes to check the past history of underdogs/UNDERs will rue the fact that they didn't bet that way for the past 10 years which would yielded new houses, trips to exotic locations and gorgeous women begging to have babies with you.......you have only yourself to blame that the Canadian economy is not significantly better.....meanwhile the bookies in Costa Rica, and other exotic locations are living the high life thanks to some of  us being very kindhearted donators.

There's always the next 10 years though to get it right, right?

 

Any newsworthy news, those with their fingers on the pulse of the CFL chime in.

 

 

 

pucks
pucks

William Hill has a lot of money to slip to who and when they need to to become a sponsor.....they are hands down one of THE worst books out there is you take some money off of them for even a short period of time.

 

I'd love someone to do an honest poll of  bettors' opinions on all the sportsbooks, done by someone besides Covers who William Hill pays advertising dollars to, WH would be one of the bottom 2 or 3 as voted on by sports punters.

Indigo999
Indigo999

Ok Goatherd, we'll see if one of your versions of "reality" is more sound than mine.

Wildcard game where one team had the yards per pass attempt advantage in their  last three games.....record ATS of those teams?

35-30  ATS over the past 20+ years...you might be able to buy an ice cream cone at MacDonald's  using that methodology, but not much else

Teams with the yards per play advantage over the other team?

Similar results.

Next time bring something useful to the table instead of your ignorance.

CoreyPaus
CoreyPaus

Very small sample size,....teams off a shutout win and now on the road in the wildcard round have been 1-2 ATS.

Indigo999
Indigo999

Teams with a 10-6 record during the regular season have been only 7-16 ATS @home in the wildcard round.....Cowboys, Ravens

10-6 teams that are away in the wildcard round have been 10-14 ATS .......Colts, Seahawks

 

Teams with eleven regular season wins have been 8-9 ATS @home, wildcard round.....Texans

Teams with twelve regular season  wins have been 7-3 ATS @ home, wildcard round......Bears

 

 

Teams with an unbeaten home record during their regular season have only been 6-12 ATS @home in the conference semifinals........Patriots

 

Indigo999
Indigo999

The team with the better average yards per pass attempt differential, season to date has been 40-25 ATS in the wildcard round.

Season to date statistics.

Team              offensive yards per pass    defensive yards per pass

Colts                       6.9                                 7.0

Texans                    7.2                                 7.0

Chargers                 8.0                                 6.7

Ravens                   6.4                                  5.8

Seahawks              7.2                                   7.0

Cowboys                6.7                                  7.0

Eagles                   7.1                                   6.9

Bears                    7.0                                   5.7

 

Bears, Seahawks, Texans, Chargers

 

The team with the worse record their past 6 games has been 28-17 ATS in the wildcard round, .......the Texans have won four of their past six games, while the Colts have won 5.

Teams that win the rushing yards in the wildcard round?......51-13-3 ATS

Since Jackson has been the starting  quarterback of the Ravens they have averaged 230 yards rushing/game and have allowed 61 yards/game.

Teams that outrush their opponent by >50 yards in the wildcard round?   32-6 ATS, 17-2 ATS @home and 18-1 straight up.

Teams that outrush their opponent by >100 yards in the wildcard round of the playoffs?   

18-0 ATS, 18-0 straight up winning by an average of 16 points/game, if they are playing at home this moves to 10-0 ATS and 10-0 straight up, average winning margin has been 19 points.

 

Good fortune.

Roggs05
Roggs05

I have been aware of your O/U system, but haven't bet it.

I've got a good bowl underdog system, but it doesn't do well before Christmas and after Christmas day it has done very well for over 20 years.  It got crushed this year before Christmas as favorites had a very good run and then kicked into gear, as it usually does......then as the New Year starts it becomes mediocre.

You might consider doing some backtesting starting your system after Christmas day to see if that makes a difference, as for whatever reason things change after December 25.

Good fortune the rest of your season.

Polar_Bear
Polar_Bear
NFL Betting / Week 17 / View Post

Would the BC Lions take him?  I'd trade for Pipkin or Manziel instead.

 

With you on the Dolphins and Browns (and  have got the 49ers, Bengals and Lions)....good fortune.

Indigo999
Indigo999

It's game 15, and (almost always) week 16.....sorry for the confusion.

Indigo999
Indigo999

Sunday non-SNF Home dogs week 15 with a total>42

 

24-10-2 ATS (+2.10), 15-21 straight up (-3.81) and 10-25-1 UNDER (-3.93) 

Average score            19-22.8

Average line/total    +5.9   45.8

Indigo999
Indigo999

If our home dog scores >19 points, the home dog in week 15 has been 63-10-2 ATS, going 55-20 straight up.

 

If our home dog outrushes their opponent they have been 55-10-2 ATS, going 48-19 straight up. 

 

If they do both, that is outrush their opponent AND score >19 points this is a ridiculous 44-2 ATS, and 39-5 straight up.

 

What is the likelihood that Seattle outrushes KC and scores >19 points?

Indigo999
Indigo999

Home dogs since 1989, game number 15

Sunday (day)   58-28-7 ATS (+3.47)  and 44-49 straight up (-1.62)      Cardinals, 49ers, Jets, Panthers, Lions

Sunday night   6-3 ATS (+5.50)  and 3-6 straight up (-1.89)   Seahawks

Monday night 7-4 ATS (+1.23)   and 6-5 straight up (-4.45)  Raiders

 

Good fortune

smacksmiter
smacksmiter

Actually, dividing 3445/4841 would mean that a favorite that wins the game outright covers 71.1% of the time.

smacksmiter
smacksmiter

Going back to 1989, regular season games only.....

Favorites have a record of 4841-2347-12, winning straight up 67.3% of the time.

The favorites have an against the spread record  of 3445-3556-199, covering 49.2% of the time with an average line of -5.6.

So betting a favorite, you would not have won (you either lost or tied) 27% of the time when the favorite won the game outright.

This obviously means that a favorite that wins the game outright covers 73% of the time.

 

Polar_Bear
Polar_Bear
NFL Betting / NFL Week 15 / View Post

none of my  ingredients in that soup of yours   new_cool.....good fortune this week.

thegetaway
thegetaway

Using a database, from 2010 onwards, the team allowing less average  points/game in  a bowl game.

December games   106-82-3 ATS, 56.4%

as dogs 

46-31 ATS, and 35-42 straight up, average line, +5.3 and average score 28.4-31.7

Qualifying teams this year 

North Texas, SD State, FIU, Louie Tech, Troy, Minnesota, Iowa State, Virginia, Michigan State, North Carolina State

 

Better defense on a points/game basis December games as favorites since 2010

59-47 ATS, 78-31 ATS, average line -6.4, average score 32.1-24-2

Qualifying teams

App State, Fresno State, Tulane, UAB, Marshall, BYU, Army, Memphis, Boise, Vanderbilt, Miami, FL, Auburn, West Virginia, Michigan

 

 

Indigo999
Indigo999
CFL / CFL playoffs / View Post

So much for my playoff picks.

Ended up 41-32 ATS for the season,...the last three seasons' percentage have all been between 55-58%.

Congrats to the Stampeders and those that backed them....we'll see if I do it again in 6 months' time.

freakyfreddies
freakyfreddies
CFL / Grey Cup / View Post

Hope you're right Freddie about the Redblacks.....I've managed to only lose a little on the CFL playoffs this year,.....better than normal.

And yeah, even when Calgary was dominant they still had trouble with Ottawa, would have liked the Stampeders to finish strong to jack up the price and public opinion on the Stamps.....worries me about Trever,........don't know if he comes through when it really counts...we'll see.

Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View