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RicciAlfonsini
RicciAlfonsini
Quote Originally Posted by Cap-Master:

scratch that, Orlando is not an official lean for me. My lean tonight is for Boston game OVER 203.

I just said it was a lean as I am not 100% sure of the pick. I do believe toronto might cover. But I cant bet against the magic in a must win game as they were the much hotter team to close out the season, than toronto was. If they can play a complete game the score might be the other way around. But I havent capped Toronto in a while on the road, so I cant recall from the top of my head, how often toronto gets blown out on the road.


I don't think a Boston and Indiana game could hit 204 if they played 10 more games.  The Pacers lack the talent and Boston has a great game plan against them.
Brian7479
Brian7479
Spurs have won 13 straight at home against Denver....another interesting trend if you are a ML Player.
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Spurs are on a 13-0 win streak at home vs. Denver unless the Cover's Stats are wrong.  Makes ML bet on Spurs look pretty tempting.

Just something to consider.....BOL!  
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:


Are you sure they'll win though..........

Certainly changes the strength of the trend, but many of the home games they lost were games where they had more than 106 points.....15 minutes after I posted this their total went to 107.
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Something to consider tonight with the Celtics. 

In 27 of Boston's last 28 home games that they won this year prior to Monday night, the Celtics scored more than 106 points, which is their Team Total tonight.  

This is a pretty strong and meaningful trend and these low scoring games like Monday night tend to reverse themselves.  I trust the Celtics to get their points tonight a lot more than I trust the Pacers, so taking Celtics team total over 106 looks pretty solid to me as long as they do not shoot 36% again from the field.  It will be a MAX Limit Play for me.

Just something to consider.  BOL tonight LC!!!


HipB23
HipB23
Maybe you should consider the Celtics Team Total OV 106

You said they average 113 at home and surely they will shoot better than 36% tonight and historically they very seldom win a game and score less than 106 points.  The first game in this series definitely an aberration with one team only scoring 8 points in a quarter.  

In 27 of Boston's last 28 home games that they have won this year the Celtics had more than 106 points.  

This is a pretty strong and meaningful trend and these low scoring games tend to reverse themselves.  I trust the Celtics to get their points tonight a lot more than I trust the Pacers, so taking their team total over 106 looks pretty solid to me.

Just something to consider.....BOL! 
OverAmbassador
OverAmbassador
If yesterdays trend continues today I like UN 156.  Teams playing at 11:00am seem to struggle offensively and I don't see either of these teams getting 80 points.  I can see 76-68 type game.
Bluejay50
Bluejay50
Quote Originally Posted by Caff3inekil0s:

 

 

I used to follow your page? You were on a heater... and looks like you still are? Why dont you post anymore? 


Guys really sorry about not posting, as I was really enjoying it, but I fell from a ladder on Feb 10th and really messed myself up.  My right arm ended up separated and below my clavicle and they had to put me under in the ER to get everything back in place.  Pain is still excruciating and difficult to get through each day and see a surgeon tomorrow to fix my Rotator Cuff that got completely torn in half.  Thank God it was not worse and I am continuing to win each week.  Last 5 weeks the most was 17.3K and the least was 4.7K, which has made life a little more bearable.  Took me 15 minutes to type this with my left hand and doing all I can to get my bets in.

BOL and I will try to get back soon.
Bluejay50
Bluejay50
ONLINE
03/03/2019
09:55 AM 
[ # 396283993 ]  PARLAY (2 TEAMS) ( Risking: 300.00 - To Win: 382.50 )WIN
03/03/2019 @ 03:40 PMCBB[834] Illinois -250 Score: Northwestern(76) - Illinois(81)WIN
03/03/2019 @ 10:10 AMCBB[840] Charlotte -160 Score: UTEP(58) - Charlotte(68)WIN
$382.50
Bluejay50
Bluejay50
ONLINE
03/01/2019
07:54 PM 
[ # 396026216 ]  PARLAY (3 TEAMS) ( Risking: 200.00 - To Win: 983.75 )WIN
03/02/2019 @ 01:10 PMCBB[663] Texas Tech -3-123 Score: Texas Tech(81) - TCU(66)WIN
03/02/2019 @ 11:15 AMCBB[636] Tennessee -2-127 Score: Kentucky(52) - Tennessee(71)WIN
03/02/2019 @ 11:10 AMCBB[638] Duquesne -6-121 Score: Massachusetts(73) - Duquesne(80)WIN
$983.75
Bluejay50
Bluejay50
ONLINE
03/02/2019
05:12 AM 
[ # 396055476 ]  PARLAY (3 TEAMS) ( Risking: 200.00 - To Win: 950.53 )WIN
03/02/2019 @ 11:15 AMCBB[636] Tennessee -2-127 Score: Kentucky(52) - Tennessee(71)WIN
03/02/2019 @ 12:10 PMCBB[651] Texas Arlington -3-129 Score: Texas Arlington(79) - Troy(66)WIN
03/02/2019 @ 01:10 PMCBB[663] Texas Tech -3-123 Score: Texas Tech(81) - TCU(66)WIN
$950.53
Bluejay50
Bluejay50
Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyChalk:

I don't understand the fascination around here with parlays. I've been betting for 20 plus years and can count the parlays I've played on one hand. Such fool's gold. Sucker bets 


Not Fool's Gold or Sucker Bets, if you have been doing this for OVER 20 years and know what you are doing.

ONLINE
03/02/2019
05:38 AM 
[ # 396057342 ]  PARLAY (3 TEAMS) ( Risking: 200.00 - To Win: 1,028.86 )WIN
03/02/2019 @ 11:15 AMCBB[636] Tennessee -2-129 Score: Kentucky(52) - Tennessee(71)WIN
03/02/2019 @ 03:40 PMCBBAdded Game [774] Tennessee Martin -4-110 Score: Tennessee State(86) - Tennessee Martin(91)WIN
03/02/2019 @ 11:10 AMCBB[644] Purdue -12-123 Score: Ohio State(51) - Purdue(86)WIN
$1,028.86
FunKyRufus
FunKyRufus
Quote Originally Posted by Irish7878:

 

Hey In2,

Good to see you - hope the Missus is doing well. :)

 

I'm on the Currys tonight as well.....let's cash!

 

Hope to see your excellent parlays again this season!


Hey Irish.....my wife is doing great now, but my luck outside of sports went way south, but I appreciate the well wishes.  I have been killing it,..just killing the college basketball teasers and ML Parlays.  Even did a 6 Team Round Robin parlay last Saturday and all 6 teams/ 20 bets won.  Added 37K to my account the last  3 weeks.  I might try to post later tonight for tomorrow, but my absence has been because I fell off a ladder on Tuesday Feb 5th changing a recessed light bulb in our media room and my right arm and shoulder hit the granite top of a wet bar on the way to the ground and I separated and dislocated my right shoulder and injured several other areas and ended up in the hospital.  The pain sucked the life out of me for a week.  Sorry for the long story on FunKY's thread, but that is why I disappeared so abruptly and I have to type with my left arm pecking "key by key" as my right arm is in a brace and I cannot use it at all.  If I am able to post later for tomorrow, still in a lot of pain and very low energy, I will probably cut and paste this to explain why I disappeared.

BOL and thanks for asking.
FunKyRufus
FunKyRufus
Hey FunKY......have you looked at Davidson -1 tonight.  They are 1 game behind VCU for Conference Title, so cannot afford another loss and URI has looked like garbage having lost to much worse teams at home.

BOL!
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Agree.....I just wish OKC had not gotten thrashed so bad their last game before the All Star Break.

BOL tonight!
packersbackers
packersbackers
With all due respect IF you made the bet as you actually said you did with two equal bets of $37,500 at -1.50  you better go recalculate your return.

You state $75,000/$125,000.  This bet does not get you back a $50,000 profit.  At -1.50 you return would be half of your wager or $37,500.

If you were getting back $50,000 profit the wager would have to be made at -1.33
In2it
In2it
For Props to count I am certain that a Player must play in the game.

I had the Prop that Gurley would get UNDER 67.5 yards and I think it started at 83.5 yards, so it got hammered to the UNDER.

My question and reference to Gurley-Gate is, did he come into this game injured and they only gave him the ball 3 times in the 1st drive, so he could say he played in Super Bowl LIII and not make things look too fishy if they only gave it to him once?  

If I missed something, let me know since I am focusing between the TV and taking care of my ill wife.   I hope there is a good explanation and it is not all about $$$'s or Gurley Props, but sure looks suspicious.  Him not playing also helps several other Players, so this really affects at least 6 or 7 other props.

Also, I had $500 (-1.67 pretty juicy) on the prop that the Rams 1st Play of the game would be a run after Tony Romo said in pre-game he was certain McVay would start Goff off most likely with 2 straight rushing plays get him past the butterflies.  ROMO has incredible insight into the games and what the coaches or players will be doing probably from how they related to him and what he has access to. Next year, I will follow and listen to him his pre-game analysis on every game he broadcasts.

Taking OVER 27.5 in 2nd half just because I can imagine a Super Bowl with Under 31 points.

BOL and would be interested in anyone elses thoughts on what is going on with Gurley.  


Ggod303
Ggod303
Interestingly....one article said 45,000 Patriot Fans were descending on Atlanta for the Super Bowl and they out numbered the Rams Fans 28 to 3.  

I interesting they did not say 9 to 1.  Do they really have it estimated that close?
TheBuddah
TheBuddah
NFL Betting / NE and why / View Post
The other way looks like there was possibly a mistake and that N.E. really opened at -1.5 and then went to -2.

Does make sense how they have done it.

BOL!!!!
TheBuddah
TheBuddah
NFL Betting / NE and why / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by TheBuddah:

It’s Supersunday, let’s end the season with Bang. We hit NE against KC - let's see if we can get this as well.

A major thing that needs to be recognized – the teams are playing on a neutral field.  That being the case, in order to make a prediction you want to ensure your comparison is apples to apples; therefore, I’m using current numbers but comparing it to previous Superbowls.  I have found looking at numbers and comparing the numbers to results of the regular season (where it’s home vs away data – typically) – doesn’t work as good as looking at previous superbowls.   Let’s look at some numbers:

 

           New England     5    6    8     22     1    28

-1.5    La Rams              3    5    15    16    2    18

 

According to Donbest.com the line opened at – 1.5 for the Rams – it quickly switched and NE became the favorite currently at – 2.5.  

LA is better at Rushing Off. 3 vs 5;    Passing off.   5 vs 6;   Def. Passing 16 vs 22 ;   Schedule Strength 18 vs 28;  

NE is better in Def. Rushing 8 vs 15;  Sagarin rank 1 vs 2.   The Rams are better in 4 of the 6 stats which does provide rationale for folks to consider the rams the better team on paper.  

After doing a rack and stack of a variety of stats for the superbowl and trying to figure out the key driver that results in the Winner/cover – I have found in the Superbowl, very often the team that has the best schedule strength is the team to go with.    In this case it would seem to indicate to go with the Rams;  however, I’ve been doing this for a while and there’s another issue with this game that causes me pause. 

If you were to go to Donbest.Com click on NFL, Odds -  You will see the Game listed accordingly:

 +1.5   NE Pats

            LA Rams

Typically the Line is noted as minus something; however, in this case you have a + line – I study the lines and data, I don’t know exactly what the + means; however, over the years I have found the team that has a + line usually wins and covers the game often going away.   What the + line means exactly – I don’t know.  I speculate it means an injury to a major player possibly (Gurley) .

I have found the team with the + is the team to go with.  Between the patterns in the numbers and the + line situation -   I’m taking NE – 2.5. 

 

Good luck all.         



Hey Buddah.....I made my large wager for SB on N.E. -2, so best of luck.

Regarding the +1.5, all that means of this game is that the Rams opened up as -1.5 point favorites and since the N. E. is now the favorite the list the line progression as:

N.E. +1.5     -2      2.5      -3      -2.5       -2

The alternative would be to list the line progression as:

N.E.             -2     -2.5      -3       -2.5      -2

LA       -1.5

There is no mystery to it.  They just feel doing it showing that N.E. started as +1.5 will cause the least confusion.  The other way looks like they 
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