Recent Posts

Texas AM v. Duke

North Texas v UNLV

Georgia v. Nebraska

South Carolina v. Wisconsin

LSU v. Iowa

Stanford v. Michigan St.

Baylor v. UCF

Alabama v. Oklahoma

Ohio St. v. Clemson

Missouri v. Oklahoma St.

Vanderbilt v. Houston

Ball St. v. Arkansas St.

Florida St. v. Auburn

Thread Author Low-Roller Post Entries
Yah i pick games on feel and try to stick with teams i know best.Im in a bowl pool that im trying to take seriously. Some of these early bowl games are matchups I have very little feel for.

So i tried something new and resorted to the Sagarins to try to give me a starting point on looking at these teams/

As someone mentioned before, Sagarin is computer model that does not account for recent situational develpments. Like injury, coaching change, new guy getting PT or whatever. It is 100% data with no adjustment for variables that different from the past. It weighs each result of the season evenly with no emphasis on recent results over something that happened in September.

The Buffalo pick is starting to concern me with all the opposite line movement..maybe it should be a comfort.

Like it alot.  My favorite play tomorrow too.

Really dont think Broadway will make a go and wont be 100% if he does. 

Motivation favors Tulane for sure. Good luck and thanks for the write up.
Quote Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:

Not an Auburn hyper, but thanks anyways...

How many games have FSU ran the triple option this year?  How many plays?? 

Thats my point....Can FSU "practice" this....sure....can they allow their defense to prepare like they need to for what Auburn will show???  NO....

Sure, they can throw backups and run triple options, but it wont be like what Auburn does....if you think it will be then you know nothing about football

Just because you can run the same type of plays, doenst mean it will get your team ready....when FSU is "practing" this they wont be as fast and execute as quickly as Auburn will...

Sure, teams can try to practice like Baylor or Oregon by running spread and hurry-up in practice, but that doesnt mean it will be the same thing

Auburn is getting better every week since their loss....

You can throw out whatever stats you want about FSU and their defense....THEY PLAYED NOBODY


BC had no problem running against them....FSU allowed more yards than Bama, and Auburn ran all over them

There is no point in talking about the same thing over and over and over....

We know FSU has the best team ever in college football according to FSU fans....its a shame they will lose playing their first tough game of the year in a couple weeks


You sure showed you know more than Auburn people  Thinking that because FSU has athletes, they can prep their defense for what Auburn will run

I Love the Rice play Carter. Did you happen to catch that CUSA Championship post-game footage in the RIce locker room ? They accepted this bowl bid and man were those kids friggin psyched. Feel like this team is senior laiden and the program is on an emotional high in this spot. Maybe we can get lucky and double down if the line moves to 7.5?

I dont know if you really consider A&M and Mizzou true SEC teams yet but I hope you will let us know if you have a take on their games.

I like Duke and Oklahoma St to cover them.

Best of Luck and happy holidays
I am with you guys. Rutgers passing game is now useless with their new QB. In my opinion atleast Nova made a play every now. This kid they play now looks like he should be in H.S. or Div III. No way Rutgers gets a running game going.

ND           38
Rutgers     10

Yes. Sagarin rankings would predict Wazzou -14.4 and Buffao -9.7
That other thread seemed to be getting pretty sloppy. Starting over with the results of this little analysis.

Sagarin Rankings would forecast a line that is 3 or more points off from the actual betting line in 9 games. Those nine are listed in order of the greatest difference between Sagarin and the line.
THE team listed in the team with the "advantage" ATS according to the Sagarin rankings.

(+9.9 Wash St.)

(+8.72 Buffalo)

(+6.13 FSU)

(+5.44 Washington)

(+4.31 Duke)

(+4.04 USC)

( +3.52 Navy)

(+3.25 GT)

(+3.05 Houston)

I like Buffalo, Navy and Duke the most cause I think they have appreciable motivational edges on their opponents.

 Thoughts? Good Luck to all. 

Quote Originally Posted by MrDokie:

You do realize this FSU team might be the deepest team in CFB history? There isn't a single player on Auburn's defense that would start on FSU -- and on the entire team, the only player of Auburn's that MIGHT start at FSU is Tre Mason. Of the 20 or so players on FSU's 2 deep depth chart, I'd say 16 or so of them are guaranteed draft pick pros. If you think a one dimensional offense is going to score 66 on this elite defense, you haven't watched a single snap of football this year. 

No they wont score 66. But I say they get to 30 minimum, and probably more. I know FSU is the better team but laying more than a TD to this Auburn team doesnt feel good to me. 
I agree that FSU will score its points. 38-52 if you want numbers. I also feel you correctly identify the critical matchup as FSU's ability to stop the run.

Basically nobody has come close to stopping or even containing this Auburn running game. From what i see Malzahn's attack is unique in the game of football right now.

The long layoff may give an advantage/opportunity to give their athletes a scheme that will slow it down considerably, but that is big IF by my estimation. FSU wins the game,  I do not see it being as easy as you do.  

I will agree with Omerta that the coaching advantage is with Auburn. FSU is more balanced and more talented, naturally this is why they are laying the points they are. Good luck though If i play the game it will be for nominal amount to make it more interesting
San Jose St. and USC? Could they be more different?
I agree that Texas A&M might be laying a few too many. Duke with edge on motivational Factor.

Also like Rice who has alot of Seniors and will have a motivational advantage in my opinion. 

For what its worth, If you happened to see the post game of the C-USA championship in the Rice locker room they accepted this bowl bid on the spot and the kids were fKing psyched

84.04 – 75.85 = 8.19 (+4.31 Duke)

70.37 – 63.41= 6.96 (+.46 UNLV)

83.80 – 74.22 = 9.58 ( +.58 Georgia)

86.21 – 88.32 = +2.11 Wisky (+1.11 Wisky)

86.96-79.43 = 7.53 (+.03 LSU)

93.24 – 89.56 = 3.68 (+.82 Michigan St)

91.04 – 77.17 = 13.87 (+2.63 UCF)

97.46 – 83.27 = 14.19 (+.81 Oklahoma)

87.89 – 86.61 = 1.28 (+1.22 Clemson)

88.37 – 87.31 = 1.06 (+.06 Mizzou)

75.46 – 75.51 =.05 UH (+3.05 Houston)

70.62 – 59.88 = 10.74 (+2.24 Ball St.)

104.95 – 90.32 = 14.63 (+6.13 FSU)

Hard to Pick. I wont play it, but have to pick it for a Pick'em contest.

with the line at 4.5 i want to take the points. Shaw and D'antonio are 2 of the best doing it right now and they know how to call a FXing game. I give nobody a coaching edge. So again lean towards the points. 

Stanford playing in their 3rd consecutive Rose Bowl maybe they are not as jacked as MSU who makes their first appearance since '88 i believe. Give the motivation edge slightly to MSU.

Both are special defenses. Common opponent in Notre Dame, but totally difference circumstance.

MSU lost a close one on the road to a healthy ND team. Stanford wins unspectacularly at home against a banged up ND team. 

I feel like points are likely to be at a premium and am leaning Spartans +4.5.

Thanks for asking so I had to put my thoughts down. Good luck man

OK RebelTell, I believe that the line is different for some reason.  Oddsmakers are obviously accounting for something that Sagarin is not, or vice versa. I agree the former is more likely.
for the sake of discussion does anyone care to identify the specific factors (they believe might) account for the line difference in:

1) Wazzou v. CSU
2) Buffalo v. SDSU
3  Navy v. MTSU

or any of the games with a significant difference?
Im with you Gunner. All things being equal, give me the stronger Defense especially in a big game.

So few teams today are able to rely on their defenses with consistency. It seems to me that when most teams run into a defensively oriented team on their schedule they struggle. And I find more often then not it takes another defensively focused team to give another trouble.

U raise the examples of Stanford and Michigan St, totally agree. These teams won big games with defense consistently. But look at the games they lost or really struggled in?

Stanford - USC and Utah (On the road). Two defense oriented teams.

Mich St. - Notre Dame. Defense oriently.

So despite the Fresno D showing life against a pretty weak looking Utah St. attack I am with you on USC.

The other 3, Bulls, Green Wave and Cougars are my favorite 3 plays for the opening week.

Best of Luck
Again his ratings/predictions are not biased toward the favorite. In this batch of 12 games  his system favors 6 dogs and 6 favorites.

Favorites Washington and Navy and Dog GT are the games Sagarin feels the line is off by more than 3.

Something tells me Navy will prepare and play this game in a more disclplined and prepared way than will Middle Tennesse.

So far Buffalo, Navy and Wash St. feel good considering these numbers and my situational/matchup take on those games.

Washington v. BYU

Notre Dame v. Rutgers

North Carolina v. Cincinnati

Louisville v. Miami

Kansas State v. Michigan

Navy v. Middle Tennesse

Mississippi v. Georgia Tech

Oregon v. Texas

Arizona St. v. Texas Tech

Arizona v. Boston College


Miss. St. v Rice

87.64-79.20 = 8.44 (+5.44 UW)

79.98 – 61.61 = 18.37 (+2.87 ND)

74.70 – 71.56 = 3.14 (+.14 UC)

80.98 – 76.70 = 4.28 ( +.78 UL)

79.76 – 77.56 = 2.20 (+1.1 UM)

72.16 – 62.68 = 9.52 ( +3.52 Navy)

78.58 – 78.80 = +.25 GT (+3.25 GT)

91.67 – 78.51 = 13.16 (+.84 Texas)

88.81-74.22 = 14.59 (+.59 TT)

82.32 – 72.39 = 9.93 (+2.93 Zona)

87.41 – 78.55 = 8.86 (+1.86 UCLA)

76.52 – 70.16 = 5.36 ( +2.36 Rice)

To clarify I am using the figure marking "Rankings" Rankings on his website.

"rankings" averages his two different point based models which he labels "Predictor" and "Dimin Curve". Not sure of the difference in the calculation between these two systems.

I dont follow Sagarin closely enough to know if he favors one system over another. Not obvious from his website.
As Door54 suggests above, one thing you can say with certainty about the Sagarin data is that it cannot/ does not account or adjust for specific situational off-field factors.

recent Injuries, Coaching changes etc. 

For example if Louisiana Lafayette QB does not return from injury I really like Tulane to win easily. But I have no solid information on his (Terrance Broadway) progress and they arent confirming any starter obviously.

The game I like most considering this data and situational factors is Buffalo.

I agree that the Pac 12 conference is strong, but Sagarin has Wazzou as the 30th best team in Country. I cannot buy into that. If I play Wazzou it will be for the matchup they have throwing the ball.
I see you on ULL. To me it does not seem like ULL QB Broadway will play. Officially he is day to day and might be a "gametime decision". Had surgery on his wrist/hand ~ 3 weeks ago. Do you think otherwise?
In 4 quaters without him the offense has looked awful.

Without Broadway I really like Tulane
Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View