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Thread Author begginerboy Post Entries
StraightWagers
StraightWagers
NBA Betting / Blazers / View Post
Portland would be my lean in game one, for all the reasons you mentioned. They lose this and the series ends before it begins. 
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
I've been warning you about his team all season, LC. They don't have any leadership, they don't play for each other, or with real joy, and the parts just don't fit.
begginerboy
begginerboy
Rockets led the entire game against OKC and lose on a fluke 3.
Nuggets down 11 with 3:30 to play, score 15 straight to win.
Blazers down 28 come back and win. 

All three results had to happen for us to get Rockets as a 4th seed. Just amazing. Can't make this stuff up.

The odds of all three events happening as they did must be a billion to one
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
I guess Portland changed its mind about playing the Jazz and then GS, LC. A wise move on their part.
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
LOL. What idiots the Blazers are!! They prefer to go through a red hot Utah team and a red hot GS team, instead of the sputtering Thunder and the no defense Rockets. 






begginerboy
begginerboy
Portland has tiebreaker over the Rockets...
begginerboy
begginerboy
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

They can help Portland get the 3rd seed, which means they will be able to play a team (i.e., Portland) that they have owned this year, in the playoffs? 

This should be good. But my question is, what does the NBA want to see happen? Jazz have the ability to knock out the Rockets, which means you might not see Rockets vs Warriors if Rockets drop to the 4th spot. 


Great game. Rockets now in a world of trouble if they have to play the Jazz and (if they win) the warriors. Will the Kings and the NBA rescue them tomorrow night?
begginerboy
begginerboy
Quote Originally Posted by joel00:

The seeding scenario is a lot more complex and interesting than what you stated. The Nuggets did a good job throwing away the Blazers game yesterday to manipulate the seeding. The move could potentially push both the Rockets and the Thunder out of their playoff bracket until the conference finals.

For the Thunder: if they lose any of the remaining two games they likely drop to the eighth seed and play the Warriors in the first round. If they win both then they likely get to the 5th seed and play the Rockets in the first round (because the Jazz could throw away games to get to the 6th). I suppose they will try their best to get a win vs. the Rockets at home.

For the Rockets: they retain the 3rd seed and likely play the Spurs if they beat the Thunder and drop to the 4th otherwise.

For the Jazz: they can guarantee playing the Blazers if they lose both of the remaining two games and the Blazers win both. So they could throw away these games like the Nuggets did yesterday.

For the Blazers: they get to the third seed if they win both of the remaining games and the Rockets lose to the Thunder.


Yes. Excellent job of summarizing what is at stake. Wonder which teams are really invested in trying to achieve a desired outcome and which ones will let the chips fall where they may. I imagine everyone and their mother wants to play Portland and even Denver (as top seeds) while avoiding the death sentence of facing the Warriors and Rockets.
begginerboy
begginerboy
They can help Portland get the 3rd seed, which means they will be able to play a team (i.e., Portland) that they have owned this year, in the playoffs? 

This should be good. But my question is, what does the NBA want to see happen? Jazz have the ability to knock out the Rockets, which means you might not see Rockets vs Warriors if Rockets drop to the 4th spot. 

scalabrine
scalabrine
Quote Originally Posted by the6ix:


 Yikes. Way off on this one BB.   Like wayyy off!

I was not high on the Lakers to begin with, as you know from my previous posts, and thought they'd have a tough time making the playoffs, but this level of bad is pretty shocking. 

The team is broken and LBJ does not care or give a darn. Why? He wants Walton, and some of the scrubs on the team, gone, and if LA makes the playoffs he might be stuck with Walton and those scrubs next year. That is the biggest reason (imo) as to why the Lakers are tanking. If LBJ gave a darn, he'd mend fences and will this team to make a final/push run. 

 But it is obvious he is not interested in doing that. He will get his numbers on a nightly basis, but as far as this iteration of the Lakers is concerned, he has checked out.
begginerboy
begginerboy
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

I don't think much of this Lakers team. In fact, I think they will struggle to make the playoffs. It is not a well constructed team and will not be able to maximize LBJ's talents. They don't have enough shooters to spread the floor and they have too many playmakers, or guys who need the ball in their hand to be effective. Unless they make some kind of trade, I see this team as a 6th or 7th seed at best. Meanwhile, the Rockets are coming off a humiliating loss at home which I'm sure they will want to atone for tonight as Harden, Paul, and Anthony take on their buddy LBJ.

Rockets -3.5

I should have listened to myself and just faded this team all season!
begginerboy
begginerboy
This guy and Foster or two of the fishiest officials. 

Born September 3, 1957

Residence Las Vegas, Nevada


scalabrine
scalabrine
Great pick, Scal. Clippers are tanking. You might as well throw the Lakers in there to make the playoffs at -110. They are about to go on a nice winning streak here, trust me. If they beat the Rockets, which I'm confident they will, they are looking at 5-6 wins in a row. Their schedule is less brutal than the Kings and they will get the friendly whistles. Only way they don't make it is if LBJ gets hurt. Think about what a bargain this is is. Before the season, Lakers were -500 to make the playoffs. HUGE value here.
alekim
alekim
Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

Yeah, BB, but there's a big difference between a few refs and/or players plotting to fix a game and an all out conspiracy involving every player, coach, ref, and league executive, of all time, and fully scripted games. I believe that games are sometimes rigged to various degrees and unrelated manners. I even believe that leagues are involved soometimes, putting the word into refs ears in support of the team they want marketed a la Lakers vs. Kings. What I can't get behind is the notion that everything is scripted and everyone is in on it. That's insane. These people clearly have no idea how much time and work goes into learning and acting put actual scripts. Yet the NBA have somehow found the miracle dumb jocks who carry these scripts out to near perfection with not one, in thousands, breaking kayfabe. Really? These guys don't even practice that much. Couple times a week, if lucky.

Another thing. With all the people who scream about scripts, you figure most would fall into two groups. 1.Those who don't bet. 2.Those who see  the script for what it is and use it to their advantage. You don't see very many of either on this site. It's always losing gamblers and guys who post no insight pregame, then come in post game claiming they knew the script all along. There are a handful, yourself included, that have ever created a thread pregame stating where they think the league is leaning and why. And offering logical reasons, " To market player X, coach Y, team Z, ect. To punish team Q" Most don't even offer reasons for the script though. When they make it about wagering, they just show that they know nothing about how the sports wagering industry works. If they did, they would know that this makes no sense. And when they present the entertainment angle.....Well, let me just say that would be a lot of time, money, and effort put into bad story lines. Most vans don't like the "stories" in most sports. Rarely is there a good story, such as the Golden Knights last season.

Have players fixed games? Yes. Have refs? Yes. Do leagues sometimes influence games? Most likely. Does that equate to league wide conspiracies and scripts? No.


I agree with what you say. Script is bullcrap. But fixing goes on, by players, refs, and yes, the league. Why wouldn't they get in on the action, since they have the most to gain, and lose. I'm very interested to see if the Lakers make the playoffs. They have one of the toughest schedules left so unless they morph into a new team only "the fix" can save their season.
alekim
alekim
Don't bother wasting your time, there are people here who will never believe it (even if it was happening right under their nose). 

Force
Force
Don't agree with this one. Not worth a play (IMO). Dallas tanking and the Blazers have a brutal, brutal schedule coming up where they stand to lose 7 out of the next 10 games. Interest level/motivation is low before the all-star break, but you have to think the well rested Blazers take care of business today, with sure losses waiting for them against OKC and GS.
Mancity
Mancity
NBA Betting / Dallas +3 / View Post
Another loser....


scalabrine
scalabrine
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


No that’s someone who reads what’s actually posted in his thread and incorporates it into a cap as the week goes on.

Usually you cap a game in 12/24 hours so there’s no real time to reassess.

When BeginnerBoy was on the other side with others posting, I started looking into it. Sunday morning I didn’t like what I saw. I made the bet two weeks prior and stayed with it. A “fraud” would keep his unit total the same. I’ll count this as a loss with subtracted Units. Thanks Packers.

The redemption angle is very powerful, Scal, as you know. Almost as much as the revenge angle. When the Pats lost to the Giants a second time, it took another miracle play, so you'd know they'd be ready for this one. Also recall the Spurs redemption series against the Heat. Redemption: it's what western mythology/religion is based on. Perhaps there is no stronger motivation/psychological angle than that.

Mancity
Mancity
NBA Betting / Knicks ML / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by Mancity:

Are you talking to me ? lol

Knicks win it , don't worry bro 

LOL. I think you need capping lessons. Do you even follow these teams. You know how desperate the Grizz were fo a win. Did you watch the ending of their last three losses? Did you know this was a revenge game for them? Did you know they were going against their old coach? Did you know the Knicks have a bunch of new players that have not played together? Ask me next time before you so casually dismiss my warning.
Mancity
Mancity
NBA Betting / Knicks ML / View Post
I don't think so.
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