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Thread Author AchillesTG Post Entries
VGPOP
VGPOP
No way the Clippers franchise is worth as much as the Dallas Cowboys!  Why would he overpay by a billion dollars?
crbravens33
crbravens33
I have no idea where they get their stats, but you can use this as a general guideline.

http://www.wunderdog.com/public-consensus.html


begginerboy
begginerboy
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:


There are a couple of sites I'm looking at (vegasinsider being one of them). Interestingly, when the line first opened at +2.5 Nets it was the Sharps that jumped all over it. But now the public seems to be on Miami. I agree that the Blazers are in a very different situation. They have much stiffer competition and I'm not touching that one. 


VegasInsider's +2.5 is based on Sportsbook.com handle of action. Sportsbook started at 2.5, went to 3, and back to 2.5, so no sharp movement from that perspective. If you are looking for Sharp moves, I would check 5 Dimes due to their sheer volume of bets. They opened at 1.5 and have stayed flat. Normally on 5 dimes, I can see a line change within 30 mins of the opening and I can assume the sharps have jumped in and staked their position.

For percentage of Public bets, I would use SportsInsights in that they incorporate odds from 6 to 10 books into their numbers.

You have a great write up and I agree with your assessment. I have read quite a few of your threads and doubt you are a beginnerboy. You seem more like a seasoned vet.

Good Luck
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Quote Originally Posted by StraightWagers:

that's a good looking dog


Thanks

Poor Boy is lame now on his left, back leg. Going to the Vet tomorrow, really worried about the "Big Guy"!
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
LC has made plenty of people money this year.

It is mathematically impossible to maintain a 60% to 70% win rate, especially during these strange playoffs.

You do realize that 55% win rate (over a year or more, betting spread), will make you a really good profit.

LC is a true gambler that has good money management skills, great insight, and knows when to back away.

It bothers me when people say, "I won, so I am betting on house money". A long term gambler with a decent bankroll, will never think like that. You want to make a profit each week or month.

You Guys should have learned from LC more than just the winner of the day. Please learn and grow!

If you are betting deposit by deposit, you will definitely lose in the long run and make desperate, bailout picks. LC will keep floating along making money over time while short timers lose money and girl.

I guarantee LC will make money in the long run and followers will lose money.



animals26
animals26
Brilliant move!

Create this firestorm at the Pinnacle of Clipper's success this year, then buy the team at below market value.
animals26
animals26
"This is 100 percent Magic's plan," a league official intimately involved in the buying and selling of franchises told Yahoo Sports.
animals26
animals26
Mod had to remove the name I called the "so called" girlfriend, but her attorneys scripted the audio for her.
animals26
animals26
I have no doubt Magic and the Guggenheim Partners were pushing some buttons in the background, not to mention the person Team of attorneys.

Exit strategy for NBA, Donald Sterling: Sell Clippers to Magic Johnson

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/exit-strategy-for-nba--donald-sterling--sell-clippers-to-magic-johnson-073015142.html

bobmaloogatimesfive
bobmaloogatimesfive
Just go to Google and type "why are white people so" and check what Google autofills. Try each race and you will get every stereotype you have ever heard.

Stereotyping and racism is so prevalent, they are the first things that bubble up.

Try it!
bobmaloogatimesfive
bobmaloogatimesfive
There are a lot of old white men that grew up in a different age and cannot let go of their old racist stereotypes. Just look at the GOP Right Wingers!

It sounded to me that she had her part all scripted, no doubt by her attorneys. I presume she has a Team of attorneys, since she is being sued by the family and Sterling is probably footing the bill.

How pathetic we are as a Nation. Cliven Bundy, Donald Sterling, and then the Supreme Court votes 6-2 to end affirmative action because there is no more racism in America.
MagicMen
MagicMen
Frank Vogel pushed them too hard at the start of the season. They wanted Home Court throughout the playoffs, but ended up burning his Team out when it was most needed. Consequently, they are tired and lost all confidence. Bad Coaching!

You would never see Popavich try that tactic. He knows how important it is to have a fresh team for the crunch time push.


dimndimn
dimndimn
NBA Betting / ATL @ IND / View Post
I am also wondering whether the line goes to -8, based on the Clippers game last night?
dimndimn
dimndimn
NBA Betting / ATL @ IND / View Post
I agree with dimndimn.

Bounce back and zig-zag betting requires that there be some kind of value. Indiana -7.5 is not value. The Books know the Public really wants to bet the Favorite anyway, then add on a bounce back spot just makes it worse. That is why they can hang such a high number and still 52% of the money to bite.

I think the only way Indiana covers is if Hibbert has a 21 - 12 kind of night. It is possible he will break out of his funk, but is that worth 7.5 points?

Lifes_A_Gamble
Lifes_A_Gamble
NBA Playoffs and the start of MLB, will drain your bankroll quickly. It is best to only spot play and stick with strict money management.
Furry_Owlet
Furry_Owlet
Carlisle for the Mavs is a good Coach. He said this on the Star Telegram. Hopefully, they will bring the "A" game.

“I know we’re tougher than what we showed [Wednesday] night,” Carlisle said after Thursday’s practice. “This is the first time we’ve dropped three in a row all year, so it’s a time of great urgency, and we’ve got to step up and we’ve got to respond. We’ve got to have a stronger disposition, we’ve got to have a stronger posture, and we’ve got to show a lot more resistance than we did all [Wednesday] night. And if we don’t, it’s going to be very hard for us to win enough games [to get to the playoffs].”
Furry_Owlet
Furry_Owlet
How many times have you seen the Public pile on a dog and ML?
Public getting sucked in to this one!

I will side with Vegas and took the Mavs -2.
mikeru3
mikeru3
When I ran a thread on another forum, I documented each day, so there was no confusion and people could see my hot and cold streaks.

It was a very clean thread.and well documented.

I am on a heater right now, so this seems a little far fetched.
Day3/6/20143/5/20143/4/20143/3/20143/2/20143/1/20142/27/20142/26/2014
Total
WLT Pct Net Winning
4-0-0 100.00% 765.86
4-2-0 66.67% 284.09
3-1-0 75.00% 367.12
2-0-0 100.00% 454.55
3-1-0 75.00% 518.18
9-4-0 69.23% 1,254.55
5-2-1 71.43% 763.64
5-2-0 71.43% 323.54



35-12-1 74.46% $4731.53




mikeru3
mikeru3
I enjoy reading your threads and also check out your picks, but winning percentage means absolutely nothing. It's all about Units Won.

I have seen many people make a nice profit hitting 46% ML dogs, others lose money hitting 70% of their picks.

To shut down some of your Taters, you would need to display a running total of Units won and lost.

But then again, if people are having a good time with your thread, more power to you!


Covers
Covers
Dallas has been winning against the weaker teams, they just cannot beat the upper echelon teams. Since Charlotte is not a top echelon team and Mavs are on a good streak, I will ride the hot team -3.
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