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Thread Author flwareagle Post Entries
Allison_Road
Allison_Road
Quote Originally Posted by cp3434:

AR.    Have a quick ?    I know your system works but I am curious about what exactly the profit would be when u figure juice     I know we play both favs and dogs.   I understand the system is 54-0 but would very much like to know say what a 100 better would be right with all juice added in.     

Juice only really matters when you LOSE a chase.  Yes, the juice makes it quite expensive sometimes to complete a chase, but once you win the chase, you get back everything you lost PLUS whatever your betting unit is.

If your betting unit is $100 and the chase record is 54-0 with no pending chases, then your current balance would be whatever your starting bankroll was PLUS $5,400.
Danrules24
Danrules24
Dan, you have been running really good lately with last year's MLB parlay systems and this year's NHL systems.  You were due to hit a rough stretch (as all system and handicap bettors both do).  We need to just ride it out and trust that the systems will perform positively for the duration of the season.

Keep the faith....I still have the faith.
Danrules24
Danrules24
Quote Originally Posted by flwareagle:


I am taking the two lowest odds dogs that are plus money (no -102 dogs...+100 is lowest).  I had WAS and COL yesterday.

That should say two lowest odds ROAD dogs.
Danrules24
Danrules24
Quote Originally Posted by traderjoe13:

the way i see it is that if each of these systems hits at a rate of 13% then we should make a relatively healthy profit, therefor days like yesterday are going to be more of the norm.  its all a numbers game from my point of view. correct me if im wrong dan

Exactly what I was going to say.  I got lucky on system one because I have been playing Dan's NHL version with a slight twist.  I am taking the two lowest odds dogs that are plus money (no -102 dogs...+100 is lowest).  I had WAS and COL yesterday.

However, as stated before, bad days like yesterday will be common, but if we stick with it, I believe that we will come out ahead at the end.

Thanks again for your hard work Dan!
Danrules24
Danrules24
Quote Originally Posted by bruin95:


I just checked, and 5dimes has the game at 6.5.  It was never 8.  You must have been looking at the wrong game.

You are correct.  I was looking at the PIT/MIL line.
Danrules24
Danrules24
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Was/Phil o6.5 -110

5Dimes has the total for WAS/PHI at 8.  I think I will skip this one.
Danrules24
Danrules24
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Thursday RESULTS: (Oakland, you're killing me)

System 1 - Cin +100 and NYM +100, $20 to win $60 - WIN

System 2 - Det -142 and Oak -151, $50 to win $91.64 - Loss

System 3 - Tex/Oak o7.5 -105 and Min/Det u9 -120, $10 to win $25.79 - WIN

System 4 - Clev -107, $10.70 to win $10 - WIN

Totals:

  • Sys 1: +106.86
  • Sys 2: -110
  • Sys 3: +93.62
  • Sys 4: +22
  • Total +112.48

We need a game 5 system 2 win on Friday.


I got lucky and bet Detroit and Boston, not Oakland.  I looked at the wrong post before I placed the bet.

Bart_
Bart_
Thanks for both answers Bart.

Bart_
Bart_
Also, would COL be a play after winning by more than 5 yesterday?  Weren't they one of the bottom 10 teams in Pinnacle's odds?
Bart_
Bart_
Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:



Cisco will be posting all games (not just under 470).
I will be posting only under 470 and over 525. For under 470 in April I only post the bottom 10 teams to win the World Series. For over 525 in April, I only post teams which have made the playoffs the previous year.
These filters helped save atleast 4 losses in the past 7 years.

Thanks for the response Bart.  Despite the 4+ losses the past 7 years, do you think that it would still be profitable playing ALL teams for Cisco's system if I am using a labby system?  It seems like there would be so many more plays that it should be pretty profitable playing all of the teams.
Bart_
Bart_
Cisco, I just realized that I was looking at the TODAY tab and not the 5 RUN TALLY tab.  I see that you have OAK there.  I am still curious if you are going to be playing ALL of the teams, not just the ones under .470.  Thanks.
Bart_
Bart_
Hey Cisco, I noticed you have BOS, COL, KC and TOR as plays.  What about Oakland (who won by 8)?  Are you playing all teams regardless of record?  TIA.
Danrules24
Danrules24
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

MONDAY RESULTS

System 1 - Balt +115 and ChiSox +111, $10 to win $35.36 - Loss

System 2 - Mia -134 and Bos -113, $10 to win $22.92 - Loss

System 3 - Col/Mil o8.5 -110 and Bos/Phil o7.5 -110, $10 to win $26.45 - Winner

System 4 - Pitt +107, $10 to win $10.70 - Loss

Totals:

  • Sys 1 -10
  • Sys 2 -10
  • Sys 3 +26.45
  • Sys 4 -10
  • Total -3.55

Dan, are you using the same betting progressions for Sys 4 as you are for the others?
samrock67
samrock67
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I will be posting a new thread soon.

 


Great....looking forward to it!!
samrock67
samrock67
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Sam that's some good stuff. I think you used some of my hockey parlay system in your rules, but just so you know I use something a bit different in baseball.

In baseball I will not use the  bank method with a pocket account. I'm just going to let it run on it's own, whether up or down, no set bankroll. I also started using the 2 strongest dogs (closest to +100), it could have been home or away. I the switched to more handicapping usin Degen's Dog system spreadsheet as a guide. As Oilcountry stated, the key is handicapping the best Dogs that day. The betting line is simply public betting and there is usually value elsewhere.

If you are betting RRL (dog -1.5) it would be better to use road teams to get that extra AB in the top of the 9th. Also if you are trying to decide on 2 teams that are close on odds you might want to look at the totals number on the game. If one game is O/U 6 and another O/U 9, I'd lean toward the 9 game. With an expected high scoring game, there is more variance to the score increasing your chances of a game won by 2 or more.

 

Best of luck, I will follow.


Good stuff Dan.

I remember in another thread you stated that you would be running 3 or 4 different parlays and that one of them was using totals.  Do you mind stating the rules/parameters for that system?  Thanks.
Bart_
Bart_
Quote Originally Posted by Upside:


I can't find the rules either , bro , oh well .. Bit confusing without knowing how it works and what to look for .. Good luck guys ! 

You may not be looking at the correct spreadsheet.  You should be looking at the one listed in the first post.  There is a tab on the bottom that is labeled RULES.

Here is the link again:

http://tinyurl.com/krbces6
Bart_
Bart_
I was looking at your spreadsheet and noticed an error in the rules tab.

In the rules for the 5 Run Win Chase (over .525), line 22 needs to be changed from "A team will be eliminated if they lose by 5+runs during a skip game & gets over .470" to "A team will be eliminated if they lose by 5+runs during a skip game & gets UNDER .525.
 
Great job on the spreadsheet.
BuckeyeKaptn
BuckeyeKaptn
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Rizz's...This is a quote from 2011:

Some people like this system, some people hate it.  I had days on each side during the season last year.  The jist is that the oddsmakers know more than we do.  Our hope is to use this knowledge against them and turn a profit using an aggressive labouchere money management.  If you hate laying juice or using labby management, this is not for you.  Won +175U last year going 231-10

Here is the plan:

Play on teams that open at -145 or higher in the first game of a three or more game homestand.

Chase for 3 games only

Run this on an aggressive 3 line labouchere (will post lines).


Is this playing any team that is -145 or higher in the first game of a 3 or more homestand or are there filters (winning pct, etc....)?
Bart_
Bart_
Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:

I tried playing around with different variation & labby lines. Have not found a strategy that is more profitable then straight martingale.

I have only done martingale in the past, but have been strongly considering doing a labby system this year.  Do you think a labby system would be very profitable....especially as compared to a martingale.
Bart_
Bart_
Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:

Here is a link to the backtesting for the Over 525 chase. I tried playing around with different variation & labby lines. Have not found a strategy that is more profitable then straight martingale. 

I originally backtested all games, but found 4 losses in the past 5 years in April. I added a filter to play only teams that made the playoffs the previous years to eliminate those losses. We use a similar filter in the under 470 system where we only play the bottom 10 teams using Pinnacle's World Series odds. 

Please feel free to download it into Excel and play around with it. 
http://tinyurl.com/ma9b64o

Another question, have you backtested the 5 Run Win system with a lower winning pct?  I just arbitrarily chose .525 when I came up with this system (at first I considered .530 which is .030 over .500 since Cisco's pct is .030 under .500, but lowered it to .525 to increase plays).  Have you checked using .520, .510 or just over .500?  Just curious.

Also, you say you backtested using all teams, but had 5 losses in April over the past 5 years.  Does that mean that the results were favorable using your new filter or by waiting til May?

Thanks again.