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Thread Author oli_renaud91 Post Entries
oli_renaud91
oli_renaud91
Quote Originally Posted by AJLightning:

Still A or B....you can forget about Pampling. No chance...

You're missing the point. I dont give 1 f*k about the players. It's the concept that interrest me. Value ? EV+ ?
oli_renaud91
oli_renaud91
Quote Originally Posted by AJLightning:

Book A or B because you get better odds. Why bet +105 when you can get +125?

Book A and B are 3-Ball. (3-Way). There is 3 player involved. Not 2
oli_renaud91
oli_renaud91
Ok I dont know much about Golf. casually catching it on TV here and here waiting for other stuff. However. I like looking at Line Movement and comparing line at different bookie to find value or miss line. 

I noticed some strange stuff between 2-ball and 3-ball line in golf betting. Here it is. Tell me what you think about it...

EX: 3-Ball line for a tee start in the upcoming round 2 of the PGA Champs

Book A: Pieters +125 / Schauffele +130 / Pamplings +360
Book B: Pieters  +125 / Schauffele +145 / Pamplings +355

Book C isnt offering 3-Ball line. However, he offer 2-Ball line between most 2 player combinaison starting on the same tee time. (EX: Pieters vs Pamplings, Shauffele vs Pamplings etc...)

Book C offer: Pieters +105 / Schauffele -115

So now I look at the 3-Ball line offer from Book A and B and it tells me both Pieters and Schauffele have the same chance of finishing with the best score in that 2nd round with a slight advantage for Pieters (+125 vs +135/+145).

So There is value at Book C betting Pieters +105. Since line at Book A and B told us he will finish with a better score than Schauffele slightly over 50% of the time. The value is there at Book C. 

I found 4 of them for the round 2 of the PGA Championship. Let me know if there is something I'm missing here. A rule or something I Might have overlook. Of course it could be that Book C is right and both Book A and B are wrong. I guess the more Book you can use to compare the  3 Ball-Line the better you can be sure of the +EV pick on Book C
joshfactor
joshfactor
I do really love the under myseld. Good Luck sir.See ya at the cashier
oli_renaud91
oli_renaud91
Well Well Well.... 4-4 at the break. Wasnt expecting Perry to stick that long. Even had a 4-1 lead after 5 frames. My score prediction is obviously off. But I still think O'Sullivan find a way to win it without any difficulty. 10-7/6
accountant4life
accountant4life
I think Raonic dispatch him in straight sets w/o loosing his serve. But im not into future myself and included Nadal ML in one of my parley today. Good luck to you sir
oli_renaud91
oli_renaud91
Tennis / Sunday Action / View Post
Switched side in the last few hours. Got some volume today with ATP/WTA Australian open adding up to the Championships Games in the NFL. Here is all my action. Have a great day gentlemen and enjoy the games. only 3 left before we have to wait all over again until september before getting our sunday RogerBall 

100$ Packers +6
50$  GB/ATL U60
25$  Coleman U1/2 TD +100

100$ Steelers +6
50$ PIT/NE O50
10$ Big Ben +1,5 PAY (vs Tom) +150

#NHL
50$ Flyers ML +100

#AussieOpen
40$ Brady +150
25$ Makarova +300
25$ Gavrilova +300
25$ Williams+Nadal+Dimitrov+Raonic+Goffin +300

Total stacked: 500$

Switched my main from Pats -5,5 to Steelers +6 this morning. Tons of action on the Over in GB/ATL game. I feel that this is a very high total that need both offense to get it rolling all game to hit the over. Really possible with those two O. But I feel either Ryan or Rodgers will go cold for a couple quarters and make the under hit. Not a very popular opinion for sure. 
oli_renaud91
oli_renaud91
NFL Betting / Sunday Action / View Post
Switched side in the last few hours. Got some volume today with ATP/WTA Australian open adding up to the Championships Games in the NFL. Here is all my action. Have a great day gentlemen and enjoy the games. only 3 left before we have to wait all over again until september before getting our sunday RogerBall 

100$ Packers +6
50$  GB/ATL U60
25$  Coleman U1/2 TD +100

100$ Steelers +6
50$ PIT/NE O50
10$ Big Ben +1,5 PAY (vs Tom) +150

#NHL
50$ Flyers ML +100

#AussieOpen
40$ Brady +150
25$ Makarova +300
25$ Gavrilova +300
25$ Williams+Nadal+Dimitrov+Raonic+Goffin +300

Total stacked: 500$

Switched my main from Pats -5,5 to Steelers +6 this morning. Tons of action on the Over in GB/ATL game. I feel that this is a very high total that need both offense to get it rolling all game to hit the over. Really possible with those two O. But I feel either Ryan or Rodgers will go cold for a couple quarters and make the under hit. Not a very popular opinion for sure. 



mr_bollox
mr_bollox
Other / Tour de France 2017 / View Post
Bring the money to the bank 
oli_renaud91
oli_renaud91
Ronnie O'Sullivan @ Joe Perry

Watched almost every game this week end. O'Sullivan has been flawless as usual but the guy isnt mutliple world champion for no reason. Joe Perry started out very strong in his first couple of matched dispatching his opponent quickly. But lets be honest. He's lucky to be where he is right now. The only reason he has been able to move past Barry Hawkins in the semi finals his because Hawkins couldnt capitalize on Perry mistakes. And yes...Perry make a load of mistakes. At least 2 per frame which is enormous but Hawkins couldnt finish the job and let Perry comeback from 2-5 deficit to win it in 11 matchs. Their game has been a 5h+ grind that will give Ronnie a huge advantage in the final because he havent played since saturday. The final will be a best of 19 thing and I just dont seee how it could be possible for Joe Perry to keep the pace. That would be one of the biggest upset of the year for sure. I will be surprise if Perry win 5 frames. 

O'Sullivan ML -500/-550 at most sportsbook at the moment. This is as close to a lock as it can possibly be. 

Sure there is alot of juice. Personnaly my Unit size is a very low % of my bankroll so I ll pay the very high juice and make it a play anyway. But it can also be very good parley material if you were thinking about playing any of the home favorite in today NFL championship matchup

Prediction: O'Sullivan 10-2

Good Luck
oli_renaud91
oli_renaud91
Tennis / Tennis Pick / View Post
Seppi being very impressive so far keeping up the pace against Wawrinka. You gotta feel that somehow Stan will find a way to win a few games in a row at some point but Seppi playing great tennis on serve and winning his games pretty easily to 15/30. Wouldnt be surprise to get an other tiebreaker in the 2nd set putting the total at 26. Which mean I could hit the Over even a 3 setter. 

oli_renaud91
oli_renaud91
Tennis / Tennis Pick / View Post
Pick #2

Tsonga + Federer +100
jack4469
jack4469
Number of dumb poeple here not understanding the guy locked that bet a while ago and this is why he got 28-1...Is too damn high.

Too much juice for me hedging out here on ATL ML. I'd play the Falcons ATS and cross my finger I dont get screwed by Ryan winning the game by a FG
VegasVandal
VegasVandal
I'm not that much into Props and when I do its for a fraction of my standard unit bet. But this one is probably EV+ considering the GB WRs crew mess
oli_renaud91
oli_renaud91
Locked in:

Pats -5,5

Strong Lean:

GB/ATL U60,5
Waiting to see if the line can move up an other half point. Will more than likely still play it at 60

Lean:

GB +6
PIT/NE U
dumped97
dumped97
Quote Originally Posted by dumped97:

 

Your response is mongoloid  cause I only posted my opinion.

oli_renaud91
oli_renaud91
Tennis / Tennis Pick / View Post
Pick #1

Stan/Seppi O35 +108 
accountant4life
accountant4life
Well, I would lean on the Over. But Murray could dispatch Zverer 62 62 60 without anyone being surprised so I'd stay away. Zverev not looking bad so far in the match so I hope you locked it in
oli_renaud91
oli_renaud91
Tennis / Tennis Pick / View Post
Nothing so far today. Horrible Aussie so far. Would basicly need to win all my remaining wager till the end of the tourney to break even. However, cant do anything like to cap and grind those match like every others....

Leaning..

Federer + Evans +100
Federer + Evans + Wawrinka +120

Nothing locked so far. But I will probably play them shortly. Stan going on court very soon so not a lot of time cap it more. 

Good luck all 
oli_renaud91
oli_renaud91
Tito Ortiz ML +185 
Under 2,5 +140 
 
Both very small wager. I'm confident in both those picks but with Sonnen 67 year layoff and the fight taking place in awkward condition (weigh, age, etc...) Its hard to consider anything close to a lock in this one but I'll take the size advantage and a very good +185 line. Enjoy the show gentlemen