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Blue horseshoe loves the Kansas City Chiefs.
 

Coming off a massive prime time let down against Denver. Green Bay coming off an emotional prime time revenge win against Seattle. Green Bay likely playing without Lacey and god knows who else.

Andy Reid one of the better coaches when he has extra time to prepare (they played Thursday night). Back-to-back prime time game for KC (no one likes losing in prime time 2 weeks in a row)

Jamal Charles fumbled the game away last week...look for him to be hungry and run angry...I'm thinking 150 yards rushing...7 points is way too much!!!! 

Take the Chiefs for my game of the week.
 

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Quote Originally Posted by Coloneljim:

The Packers seem to be the bet which is why I might take a shot on the Jets who are 3-0-1 ats last 4 at Lambeau.

Packers - 20                                      Jets - 13

New York +8                                under 46

 


Im on board w the colonel on this one.  This line is inflated because Green Bay is coming off a loss and has the longer week, while the jets "struggled" to put away the raiders. The jets look like a really improved squad from last year and I wouldn't let the score from last weeks game deter you from backing the Jets. They flat out dominated that game and made a couple very correctable mistakes that gave the raiders easy points and took points off the board inside the redzone. 

I won't be the least bit surprised if this game comes down to the wire. Green Bay just doesn't have an answer for their holes at both left and right tackle. The jets have the tools to exploit those weaknesses and the pass rush should make up for their lack of talent in the secondary. 
Taking the 8.5 points and hoping for at least a back door cover and a hard-fought game that ends in a kneel down.
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Things can get awfully hot and humid in Miami this time of year. I'm talking on the field temps close to a 100 and nasty humidity. Not to mention, it's week 1 and these guys haven't even played a full game yet. Should be a division dog fight and quite a test of endurance. Miami was a tough out at home last season and didn't lose a game by 4 points or more all season (until week 17).

I can also tell you that New England prob isn't looking forward to seeing Knoshown Moreno again. He carved em up pretty good last year w Denver. Maybe that's why the Fish picked him up?

I think I'll take the points on the fish in this home opener. I'm hoping for a good game and 5 points is just the right number to get me on the home dog who won this matchup last season.

Just remember...it's week 1,
You don't have to bet big to have big fun. 

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Upon further review, I am sticking with my original pick and going with the Denver Broncos on the nicest day we've seen in north Jersey in quite some time. 

My inner wise guy remains suspicious for the following reasons: 
Not seeing much line movement despite the 60% plus on Denver. Would like to see the line get to Denver -3 but the books aren't moving it. And out of all the Super Bowls being played, only six times have the two teams met in the preseason of the same year. In 5 of 6 of those games, the team that won the preseason game, won in the Super Bowl (Seattle beat Denver in the preseason this year). 

But my gut tells Denver just has too much firepower on offense....even for the legion of boom. I agree with Steve Young in that in order for Seattle to win this game, they will have to get pressure on Manning with their front-4...just like the Giants did in 2007 to shut down Brady and the 2nd best offense of all time. The Giants had a hall of famer in Michael Strahan, and Justin Tuck & Osi Umenyiora in their prime. Seattle's strength has never been their defensive line, and I don't see Denver's offensive line having any issues tonight. You give Manning time and he will throw people open...I don't care who's covering them....it may be a flutter ball, but his accuracy and ability to make the right reads have never been better. 

So in conclusion, I am going with the public and taking Denver. As one of my idiot employees told me back when I was running the Tangiers, "Its a casino...people gotta win sometimes." I ended up firing him, but I think he is right tonight. 

Good Luck...Hopefully its a classic!! Can't wait for next season fellas. 
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I am not going to give some fancy analysis for this one. It's the Super Bowl and both teams are elite. We can throw all the playoff statistics out the window (they only played 2 games each in the playoffs). Believe it or not, I think the public is pounding Denver merely for the disgust of Richard Sherman's post-game antics. Like it or not, his comments have turned the public eye into a matchup of good guys vs bad guys. What do you think the public would rather see: Richard Sherman hoisting the Lombardi trophy or Champ Bailey, who's waited 15 years to get to the Super Bowl?? Obviously, Peyton and the Broncos are now in the "good guy" camp. Although it's impossible to say a bad thing about Russell Wilson. The guy is a winner and carries himself as the clear captain of his team (really impressive for a 2nd year pro)

Nonetheless, I was left with 2 simple conclusions on Sunday. The Broncos are a much better team than New England and there should be no argument on who should be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. However, I can't say the same thing about Seattle. I think if it weren't for the 12th man, the 49ers could have easily won that game. The Seahawks were also the beneficiary of some favorable officiating, and some untimely 49er turnovers. Maybe that's also why the public is on Denver?

Needless to say, we have to pick the game we're dealt and that's Seattle-Denver. I think Peyton got away with a couple errand throws last week that would have definitely been picked off by Seattle's ball-hawking secondary. Fortunately for the Broncos, Peyton has a whole 2 weeks to watch film and study Pete Carroll's legion of doom. 

I think it's going to be a great game. And as much as I like to root for the bad guys in movies, I think the public might be right about this one. When the game is on the line in the 4th quarter, I'd feel more comfortable backing the guy who's played over 20 playoff games, the guy playing in his 3rd Super Bowl, and the guy who knows how hard it is to get to the big game. When Peyton was Russell's age, he was playing under Jim Mora when he gave his famous "playoffs" rant. That goes to show you the age gap between the two.

But I digress...I expect the Broncos to use their super hurry up offense early and often, and for the first time, I think the pressure will be on Seattle's offense to play catch up. I am not worried about crowd noise even though it's the Super Bowl (I've been to MetLife multiple times and it's just not a loud stadium). If I were Seattle, I'd pray for wind and a wintry mix. The weather could really be a big factor in this one so I am going to wait till next week to make a wager. 

But for now, I'm ignoring my inner wise guy and siding with Denver.

TO BE CONTINUED.....
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After embarrassing myself by taking Carolina last week, I'd like a chance to redeem myself. 

Much will be said about history here. Many of you have probably heard the following on ESPN, the NFL Network, and talk radio everywhere:

Tom Brady and Belichick are so clutch in the playoffs. 
Brady knows how to win the big game. 
Brady has Peyton's number.
Peyton is the best REGULAR SEASON quarterback of all time and Brady is the best POST SEASON quarterback of all time.
Manning chokes in the big game.

While some of those comments might be justified, the fact remains it takes more than a good QB to decide the outcome of a game. It takes a team effort in all 3 phases of the game. For much of Peyton's career, he had to carry the Colts in the post season. During this time, the AFC East was a joke of a division with the Patriots emerging as the only real threat every year. Consequently, the Pats have played most of their playoff games in the confines of Gillete Stadium. In fact, the Pats haven't played a playoff game on the road in 8 years. 

Public perception is that Peyton isn't clutch in the postseason, and that Brady usually wins the big game. That's why bettors are chomping at the bit to take the Pats in this spot (getting 6). "Brady as an underdog in the playoffs?? No way he loses!!"

But when you take a look at the facts, Peyton has usually been on inferior teams and on the road. I strongly believe that the shoe is on the other foot this time around. I think the Broncos are better on both sides of the ball. Belichick is always great at devising a game plan to shut down a team's best weapon, but the Broncos are the most loaded offense we've seen in quite some time. There's no way to single out one player and say that it's key to stopping them because they have so many ways to put up points. Defensively, I'd say they are pretty equal, but it's a little easier to stop the run when you're playing at Mile High with the crowd at your back. 

And all this talk about quarterbacks, I forgot to mention that the Broncos offensive line dominated the Pats front-7 in Foxboro. Moreno ran the ball like a wildebeest, going for 234 yards on over 30 carries (and that was with Brandon Spikes in the lineup).

I think this time around, the Sheriff and the Broncos will find a way to get the job done and represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. I'm predicting a last minute 3rd down conversion by Peyton after the Pats burn their 3rd and final timeout, and then a Peyton kneel down.

Pats 27
Broncos 34 

Good luck
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It's a game of inches I guess. Carolina knocking on the door from inside the 3 twice in the 1st half and get no points each time!!! Huge cooler!!! They outplayed San Fran in the 1st half and could have easily been up by 2 scores at the end of the half w some better execution. The 49ers defense wanted it more and deserve the credit. 

Oh well, can't wait to watch next weeks 3rd rematch of San Fran - Seattle 
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Lots of good points being brought up by 49er-backers and rightfully so! They are one of the best teams in the NFL and having Crabtree back is a big deal. I just think these teams are fairly similar, but the cards are stacked for Carolina to pull off a close one.

-bye week vs physical back-to-back road game in a subzero vortex / advantage CAROLINA
-home field where they went 7-1 vs traveling across the entire country  for a 1:00 start time on the east coast / advantage CAROLINA
-Panthers already went into Candlestick and won!!! / advantage CAROLINA

If I were still running the Tangiers, I would have set the line at Carolina -3 and welcomed boat loads of public money on the under dog San Fran. But now all the books use these silly computer-generated algorithms to set lines...these kids with their computers!! I miss the old days when the wise guys had more say on the action.

Needless to say, it's the playoffs and the 49ers are preferred by the public because of last year's near Super Bowl win, and because the Panthers are an unproven commodity in the playoffs. As a gambler, investor, or trader, our goal is to look for value. And in my opinion, the value is with the Panthers at a pick'em. As scary as it feels to bet against Harbaugh and the 49ers, sometimes the harder bet is the right one.

So I'm sticking w Carolina because some of the cardinal rules of situational betting tell me they are the play, and I'm not going to re-invent the wheel just because we are in the playoffs. I hope some of you guys took the under on the Saints/Seahawks and have a free roll for Sunday.

Cheers to a fat boy Sunday fellas & good luck!
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Quote Originally Posted by cocky24:

If the weather is gonna be as nasty as they say its going to be the under is the play

I concur!! If there really is going to be 30 mph winds, it obviously impacts the Saints. However, I wouldn't underestimate their running game or short passing game. Sean Payton is a heck of a coach, and if anyone is capable of making the right adjustments, it's him. 
But I have one cardinal rule that I try to avoid, and that's betting against Seattle in Seattle.  
I don't normally take totals, but I can endorse this UNDER as a strong play. 30 mph winds can wreak havoc on a passing game, so I think you will see some small ball, and lots of hand-offs & short passes. The Saints will not want to get embarassed like they did on MNF earlier this year, so turnover-free football and field possession will take precedence to taking shots down-field...at least that's what I think.

Good Luck
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Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:

Won't need no stinking points. Carolina SU

I think Best Bets has some horse sense and I'm on board.

Last week the 49ers did what many had predicted. They were built to win a physical game vs a "finesse" Packer squad. Colin Kaepernick carried his team to victory, breaking contain several times for a 100 yards rushing. But more importantly, he played mistake-free football and delivered the goods on 3rd down, making several clutch plays with his legs and his arm (although you won't see his near pick-6 in the box score). Many media experts predicted it would happen and kudos to them. I stayed away.
While the 49ers played a very physical game in a subzero vortex, the Carolina Panthers watched and enjoyed a week off after winning the NFC South for the first time in a long time. In a way, they remind of the 49ers from last year. They have a ferocious front-7 and they have an offense that is starting to find their identity. Much of the focus on defense has been on Luke Kuechly (rightfully so), but Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson have been the unsung heroes of this team. The two defensive ends have combined for 26 sacks. Not to forget about rookie nose tackle Star Lotulelei, whose emergence has clearly helped Kuechly enjoy a breakout season. 
The Panthers were built to match up well against this run heavy physical 49er squad. In their previous match-up at Candlestick, they sacked Kaep six times and held him to 15 yards rushing!! Now they get the 49ers on their home field, coming off a physical subzero vortex game, and they've had an extra week of rest and preparation. I have the strangest feeling that the home field and the extra week of rest will help lead to some type of special teams or defensive TD. Sorry 49er fans, but I think you're going to need a much better pep talk than the one from Ric Flair to win thin one.
I think the cards are stacked for Carolina, and I'm going with Ron, "the Riverboat Gambler",Rivera to win Carolina's first playoff game in 9 years. 

Good Luck 
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Hahaha...I will never forget that glorious Giants win at Lambeau. That definitely gave them the shot in arm to win the NFC Championship and go on to beat the Pats in the Super Bowl for the 2nd time. Maybe a win in this climate could do the same for the 49ers...

The 49ers are no doubt built to win a physical game, and as some of you know, I rode the 49ers like Sea Biscuit whenever they were at Candlestick. Their front-7 is about as good as it gets. I am just a situational better and I see record low temps for a team that hasn't played in the elements all season. I also see a Packer team that has lost 3 in a row to the 49ers and just might be due. And I am noticing that every single "expert" on ESPN and the NFL network are saying the 49ers are built to win this game. 

Personally, I just can't take the public side on this one. So for me, it's Green Bay or no play. But I wish every degenerate on this site the best of luck.
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Cincinnati has statistically been the best home team in the NFL both straight up and ATS. That's a bit of a surprise given the home reputations of Seattle, Denver, and New Orleans. I expect the Bengals to get the job done this Sunday and to earn themselves a match-up at New England. However, I am expecting the Chargers to cover the spread. 

The Chargers have also gone under the radar in the 2nd half of the season. They have been winners of their last 4 games and have racked up some quality wins at Kansas City and Denver. They have also been extremely competitive in all their games this season. Through the entire regular season, the Bolts have only lost 1 game by 2 scores or more!!! (oddly enough, that game was to the Raiders). Needless to say, playing a lot of close games is a good primer for the playoffs. As for the Bengals, its easy to look like a dominant home team when your piling on points against the Vikings, Jets, and the Browns (sorry Bengals fans).  

I am well aware that the Bengals already beat the Chargers in week 13. But keep in mind, that was after the Bengals' week 12 bye, and it was also after a very dramatic Chargers win at Arrowhead Stadium. I had a chance to watch their week 13 match-up and I feel the Chargers let one get away because of 3 correctable mistakes.

First, on their opening drive, the Chargers were moving the ball down the field, and Antonio Gates fumbled the ball in the redzone. The Bengals than proceeded to go three and out, and punted to rookie Keenan Allen who inexplicably didn't field the ball and allowed it to bounce another 20 yards. The net result was a 75-yard punt that brought the Chargers all the way back to their own 4-yard line! A horrible change in momentum and a horrible way to start a game. Nevertheless, the Bengals changed the entire field position without moving the ball on offense and ended up scoring first. The second big mistake was once again made by Gates. In their first possession of the 2nd half in a 7-7 game, the Chargers were once again on a nice 60-yard drive, and Dre Kirkpatrick stripped the ball from Gates at the Bengals 25-yd line. Another crucial turnover that wiped out a long drive.   

The Chargers ended up losing a close one, 17-10. Without the 2 fumbles by Gates and the rookie mistake by Allen, the Charges could have taken the lead twice. I think they could have easily won the game, and they definitely played well enough to cover the spread. They could have done a better job against the Bengals run game, but all in all, it was a good enough effort for me to endorse them getting 7 points this time around.
   
I see a very confident Charger team showing up this Sunday, and I don't anticipate weather being too much of a factor given the forecast (I would keep an eye on the wind). I am hoping for a competitive game with a couple lead changes.  

Good Luck
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I had the chance to do a little NFL rewind on their week 1 matchup, and I came away with one major conclusion. The Packers were unable to generate any type of pass rush with a healthy Clay Matthews. Kaepernick had a very clean pocket to throw from for the entire game, going 27/39 for 412 yards and 3 TDs. Obviously one of Kaep's best games as a pro. Boldin was responsible for about half those yards. The only time Kaep was more dominant was when he played the Pack in the playoffs last year and went 17/31 for 263 yards and 2 TDs, BUT also ran for 181 yards and 2 rushing TDs. Should we expect another career day for the young QB??? He has certainly had the Packs number, or should we say his offensive line has had their number. I think it's important to note, however, that those games were in the Bay Area. Playing in Lambeau in December is a horse of a different color.

In fact, if you take a look at the 49ers schedule, they have only played one game below 40 degrees this entire regular season (MNF at 35 degree Washington). The rest of their games have been played in relatively mild climates and domes including Zona, Tampa, Nola, St Louis, Jacksonville, Tenn, and Seattle in week 2. Say what you want about cold weather, but playing in 12 degree weather does have an impact on ball security and it's a little harder to catch a pass from a gun slinger like Kaep. Unfortunately there's no way to simulate 12-5 degree weather in their Santa Clara practice facility. I've seen the 49ers using their jackets in 55 degree San Fran. They are in for quite a treat this weekend.

Regardless of the weather, I think most of us would agree that the 49ers are a better team than Green Bay. But betting on them to win their 4th straight against the Pack in 2 seasons is a little too ambitious for me. Especially if corner Carlos Rodgers can't play. Even in the last 3 losses versus San Fran, Aaron Rodgers has had his way with this secondary. After shaking the rust off last week, he might have revenge on his mind. I could see the Pack spreading them out and challenging this secondary. My gut is the 49ers will try to blitz more to see if Rodgers has happy feet from his injury. Well as they say, you live and die by the blitz. Don't be surprised if you see James Jones connect on a bomb or 2. 

Right now, I am leaning Green Bay, but would also like to enjoy this one without giving myself indigestion when Kaep and Gore run wild on this leaky defense. It's been a long season and this game could go either way. Plus I need to conserve cash for all the Super Bowl prop bets. Good luck fellas.

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Normally I would be worried about the Skins shutting it down so they could go for the higher draft pick, but that pick belongs to the St Louis Rams next year...so maybe moving up to get RG III wasn't such a good idea???

Needless to say, the only way the Skins could improve their draft situation is by showcasing Cousins and trading him for a 1st or 2nd rounder. So this will be Cousins last audition to impress NFL GMs. I expect this game at MetLife to have horrible attendance and a tepid crowd at best. 

I guess that means I like Washington for a small action wager. But it's hard to have faith in either of these teams.
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Too bad the Eagles can't carry over some of the 50+ points from last week into this win-or-go home showdown. I think Dallas will cover the 7 points WITH or WITHOUT Romo. I don't have a lot to justify my reasoning other than Dallas already went into Lincoln Financial and pretty much dominated Nick Foles and Chip Ryan's offense. Obviously the Eagles have looked like a much better team since that game, but I don't think they should be laying 7 points to anyone on the road (as proven by their loss vs Minnesota just 2 weeks ago). I think the Cowboys will make the Eagles earn the NFC East Championship. Plus, I think this Romo injury could be a blessing in disguise. It will force Dallas to be more balanced, which should help give one of the unsung heroes of this team, DeMarco Murray, more touches. The cowboys offensive line has been one of the major bright spots on this team, and aside from Trent Cole, that Eagles front 7 is about as worrisome as a cloudy day. If Dallas can run the ball effectively, that will help keep that explosive Chip Kelly offense on the sideline and out of rhythm. Of all the teams we follow, we know Dallas has always been one of the more pass-happy teams (evidenced by their 2nd half melt-downs vs Green Bay and Washington). 

I see this being a hard fought game that ends with a kneel down in the final minute. 

Good luck and happy new year. 
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Both these teams are coming off tough losses, but there's a big difference between the losses that will hopefully pay us dividends in this matchup. 

The Redskins finally made the move they should have made at the beginning of the season in playing Cousins. Their offense finally showed some signs of life, and they nearly pulled off one of the most remarkable wins of the season. Last Sunday they turned the ball over 7 times!!! 5 lost fumbles and 2 INTs. And yet in the final minute they were in position to take the game into overtime. Whether we like it or not, that is a sign of resilience!! Who would have expected that type of effort in a meaningless game? Unfortunately Shannan elected to go for 2 and the win. While I don't respect Shannan, I think that type of move expresses confidence in his team and will help boost morale for a team in desperate need of some type of confidence builder. 

Now in come the beat up Dallas Cowboys who find themselves under the gun in the month of December after allowing one of the biggest comebacks in franchise history. That is not a character-building loss like the Redskins just had. That's a flat out choke job and I am not going to back a team laying points on the road when they are reeling. The cardinal rule in handicapping is things never get easier on the road. Especially when you have a defensive coordinator that looks like a senior citizen and is coaching a defense missing some key personnel.

I think the stars are aligned for the Redskins to come together as a team and embrace the spoiler role. Keep in mind, they've lost their last 3 home games, and there last home game was a humiliating loss to the Chiefs. They owe their fans a much better effort on Sunday. Now with Cousins under center, London Fletcher playing his last home game, and more importantly, a chance to knock their hated division rival out of the playoffs, the Redskins finally have some incentives to win a game!!! Winning this Sunday might finally put some meaning to a season that has been an utter disaster.

Riding with my man EasyPics and taking the Skins for my spoiler play of the week.
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In the past 2 weeks, the New York Giants have looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL. Their defense has been porous and Eli has looked absolutely lost. The Giants weren't that good with Pierre Paul and Victor Cruz in the lineup. Now with both those guys out, and the season pretty much over, what will be the Giants motivation here? To maintain the integrity of the game? To play for Coach Coughlin's job? We all know that's not in jeopardy. I think this season couldn't end fast enough for the Giants, and they will be going through the motions in the next couple weeks. 

Meanwhile, we have Detroit in a great bounce back situation. They have lost 2 straight and they are hanging on to their playoff lives by a thread. And their coach is also hanging on to his job by a thread. And I've noticed a very interesting trend with these Lions. First, they haven't lost 3 consecutive games all season. And second, they have covered the spread in 6 of their 7 wins this year, winning by an average of 10 points a game. So when the Lions win, it has usually been by double digits.

I expect this time around will be little different, and I see no reason why Eli and the Giants will give a good effort here. But I see every reason why Detroit will empty the tank and do everything they can to win this one.

So I am recommending a play against my sorry New York Football Giants. 

Lions in a comfortable win.
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Lol, the Dolphins were long overdue to beat them. Good game
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I hate to disagree with everyone on this thread, but I'm taking the Titans. As some of you know, I've backed the Cardinals several times this season. But there's something about this Mike Munchak coached team that has me believing. Theres a lot of lame duck coaches out there, but I would like to think that end of the season, Munchak will not be part of the house cleaning. I think he has won the respect of his players. I saw the Titans fight like hell at mile high last week even though they were totally outmatched. I think they have a much better chance of getting that W when the Cardinals travel east. Below is an exerpt from the Tennessean which quotes Tommy Smith, the new CEO of the Titans:

Everyone is displeased with the record right now. If there is anything that is a bright light, I believe the players are still playing hard for Mike, and I think that is a testimony to his character. A lot of these other teams are not. We just need to finish out the season the best we can, and then we’ll evaluate and see where things stand.”
Munchak’s fate could hinge on what happens in the final three games, Smith said.

As you can see, Munchak's fate has yet to be decided and don't think for a second that the players don't know that. Munchak is a players coach (not like Shannahan) and I think the Titans will win one for the Gipper. Plus the Cardinals have only won 2 road games all season (vs the Bucs and Jags). I could easily see them looking ahead to their division showdown at Seattle next week. 

Listen to your inner wise guy on this one and take the Titans!!!
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Obviously with Denver losing last night, New England can win out and own the tie breaker over the Broncos. Whether I like it or not, that changes the stakes of this game. 

However, I am not going to flip flop and take the Pats. We all know that for the last decade, the AFC East has pretty much been New England's by default. I think Miami is finally turning the corner and is well positioned for a statement win here. For those of you who had a chance to watch the week 8 match-up, you must admit that Miami more than held their own at Gillette. 

My play is not based solely on Gronkowski being out (although it certainly helps). I like the Fish because they have a lot to prove after falling victim to Brady's 4th quarter magic; they are fighting for their playoff lives; and they are probably tired of being a walking mat for New England. Not to mention, they've looked pretty damn good over the past 2 weeks. 

Good Luck Fellas 
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