Recent Posts

Thread Author Thasian Post Entries
Thasian
Thasian

With the Nats beating the Mets in G4 (that bad beat, you remember?) D-Bets would be up +4.57

If the Dbacks would have won game D -10.46.

 

So I won't stop playing D, just because of that. Just looks very bad at the moment.

Thasian
Thasian

My mistake. 

I lost 55 A-Bets (27+14+9 + some open), and 23 B-Bets. So it adds up.

 

A-Bets are 84-55 +10.76

B-Bets are just 27-23 +0.76

C-Bets are 14-9 +35.48

D-Bets 0-2 -37.15, so lets forget them REALLY quick ;)

 

Ttoals +9.85, so some difference to the 10.37 I got here, but at the moment I'm not motivated to search for the mistake :) Seems like one game I got in another way here, probably an A-Bet Dog that lost. 

On the other hand: Let now a couple of those win, and we are good.

 

 

Thasian
Thasian

Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:

Just for your info: I just run a check on just playing A&B-Bets: +23.78 so far..

 

Hm. I have to check again. I got too many losses in their in my count.

Having 112 winning bets in my quick and dirty sheet is okay, seeing that I should have 84+27=111. In the end, it's just to get an idea.

But 27 (Losing A-Bets)+14+9 = 50 doesn't add up with the 78 Losing results I got. So.. I will run it again, with a little more time, but shouldn't get worse 

Thasian
Thasian

Just for your info:

I just run a check on just playing A&B-Bets: +23.78 so far..

Thasian
Thasian

A: 84

B: 27 (4 running)

C: 14

D: 0

Lost: 9+1

+10.37

 

 

Thasian
Thasian

Dbacks v Rockies will be a play.

 

Also strong Over-series in my ratings.

Thasian
Thasian

Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:

Angels @Blue Jays (A): Pena - Jackson: 1.90 to win 1.00

Astros @Reds (A): Miley - Castillo: 1.06 to win 1.00

Athletics v Orioles (A): Fiers - Cashner: 2.90 to win 1.00

Braves v Mets (A): Soroka - Wheeler: 1.84 to win 1.00

Brewers @Padres (A): Chacin - Lucchesi: 1.06 to win 1.00

Cardinals v Marlins (A): Mikolas - Hernandez: 2.63 to win 1.00

Dodgers v Giants (A): Maeda - Beede: 3.12 to win 1.00

Nationals v Phillies (A): Corbin - Arrieta: 1.65 to win 1.00

Rays @Yankees (A): Chirinos - Tanaka: 0.88 to win 1.00

 

Nats still a play due to double header on Wednesday

Thasian
Thasian

Had a spontaneous bookiechange today, since I was excluded by my old one. Still waiting for reasons, they simply paid all my money out and thats it. 

New one applies the german gambling tax in combination with bad odds. Yet, I wanted to post something here. Looking for a mid- and longterm solution right now, but this was the quickest to be able to post something and stay in the game. 

Thasian
Thasian

Angels @Blue Jays (A): Pena - Jackson: 1.90 to win 1.00

Astros @Reds (A): Miley - Castillo: 1.06 to win 1.00

Athletics v Orioles (A): Fiers - Cashner: 2.90 to win 1.00

Braves v Mets (A): Soroka - Wheeler: 1.84 to win 1.00

Brewers @Padres (A): Chacin - Lucchesi: 1.06 to win 1.00

Cardinals v Marlins (A): Mikolas - Hernandez: 2.63 to win 1.00

Dodgers v Giants (A): Maeda - Beede: 3.12 to win 1.00

Nationals v Phillies (A): Corbin - Arrieta: 1.65 to win 1.00

Rays @Yankees (A): Chirinos - Tanaka: 0.88 to win 1.00

Thasian
Thasian

Angels, Astros, Athletics, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Dodgers, Nationals, Rays will be A-Bets today.

Thasian
Thasian

Quote Originally Posted by yanks21x:

astros reds under series? nats phillies over series? mets braves over series? cardinals marlins under series? not sure why i even ask but just wondering your opinion... chasing can get scary real quick... and i find myself just jumping off if i am already up for the week... too scared to take that one big loss to wipe out a lot of wins...

 

Haha. Looking for some action despite my failings? :)

 

I got:

Astros @Red Under - basically, due to solid pitching on both sides, but a very bad ranking for CIN-Offense. Houston also stronger on the defensive end. You got that too, out of your gut feeling, so this could work out.

 

Giants @Dodgers Under; Giants offense sucks. Dodgers Offense is solid but nothing more. 

 

Marlins @Cardinals Under: Here we agree Marlins offense sucks, STL is just average in my rating defensively (and with the bat too - which should be ok to handle for MIA-Pitching) but good enough to play strong against the Marlins.

 

Red Sox @Twins Over: Both solid on defense, but offense is above averange for both and that could / should add up for high scoring games.

 

Royals @Mariners Over: Royals below average on both sides of the ball, but offense is a tick stronger. Mariners WAY better with the ball as with pitching.

 

Regarding the two questions open:

Nats v Phillies: Both average on both sides. Nats on both sides a little above, Phillies below. I don't think that the Nats-Pitching will falter and their down Offense should be better as the Phillies-Pitching but not by a broad margin. I wouldn't touch this series.

 

Braves v Mets: Mets are nearly total average, Braves are better on offense than on defense. So the trend is okay. Summed up, I got powerranking of +5 on offense, +2 on Defense and I need difference of 5 to make a call. Anyhow: No clear Veto, BOL if you go for it.

Thasian
Thasian

Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:

Brewers @Giants (C): Anderson - Samardzija: 12.10 to win 7.98

 

A: 80

B: 27

C: 14

D: 0

Lost: 9+1

+12.49

 

 

 

 

 

Thasian
Thasian

Brewers @Giants (C): Anderson - Samardzija: 12.10 to win 7.98

Thasian
Thasian

Yankees @White Sox (C): Green - Lopez: 13.95 to win 8.43

 

Brewers @Giants (B): Nelson - Bumgarner: 3.63 to win 3.35

Thasian
Thasian

Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:

Rays v Angels (B): Snell - Heaney:5.71 to win 3.40

Yankees @White Sox (B): Sabathia - Giolito: 3.76 to win 3.67  

 

Astros v Blue Jays (A): Cole -Sanchez: 2.86 to win 1.00

Braves v Phillies (A): Fried - Pivetta: 1.25 to win 1.00 

Brewers @Giants (A): Davies - Pomeranz: 1.35 to win 1.00

Indians @Tigers (A): Plutko - Carpenter: 1.60 to win 1.00

Red Sox @Orioles (A): Rodriguez - Ortiz: 2.31 to win 1.00 

Twins v Royals (A): Gibson - Keller: 2.21 to win 1.00

Thasian
Thasian

Rays v Angels: Snell - Heaney:5.71 to win 3.40

Yankees @White Sox: Sabathia - Giolito: 3.76 to win 3.67

 

Astros v Blue Jays (A): Cole -Sanchez: 2.86 to win 1.00

Braves v Phillies (A): Fried - Pivetta: 1.25 to win 1.00 

Brewers @Giants (A): Davies - Pomeranz: 1.35 to win 1.00

Indians @Tigers (A): Plutko - Carpenter: 1.60 to win 1.00

Red Sox @Orioles (A): Rodriguez - Ortiz: 2.31 to win 1.00 

Twins v Royals (A): Gibson - Keller: 2.21 to win 1.00

 

Thasian
Thasian

I have the Cardinals @Mets as a very open series, with a very slight advantage for St. Louis. Definitely no bet for me. Total is the same: a very very very small under-leaning, but no bet at all.

For the Padres @Rockies: I would like to chase a Unter Teamtotal for the Pads. That might work. Yet, Colorados Offense is better than the pitching and a total "under" is no option for me.

 

Todays A-Bets:

Diamondbacks @Nationals: Greinke - Fedde: 1.13 to win 1.00

Dodgers v Cubs: Kershaw - Lester: 1.69 to win 1.00

Rays v Angels: Yarbrough - Skaggs: 1.40 to win 1.00

Yankees @White Sox: Happ - Nova: 1.67 to win 1.00

Thasian
Thasian

Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:

Cubs @Rockies (C): Hamels - Senzatela:  8.70 to win 7.50

 

A: 73

B: 26

C: 12 

D: 0

Lost: 9+1 

 

-2.51

Thasian
Thasian

Cubs @Rockies (C): Hamels - Senzatela:  8.70 to win 7.50

Thasian
Thasian

Well.. Thought about it, but didn't check back with the odds yet.

At -200 "standard odds" I would lose REALLY bad - with -75 Units at the moment.

At -125 I'd end up at +18.75 so far. At - 110 I'd even be up +34.92.

 

Breakeven this year would be -141.45 . out of my tummy I would say that I'm way above that on average.

Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View