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Thread Author wildcat95 Post Entries
MikeHawk22
MikeHawk22
They know the public is going to try to tease Pitt down to -3, now it takes an 8.5 pt teaser with higher juice to get there. 
concavecapital
concavecapital
If sports were easy to predict, Vegas would stop spending billions on new casinos.
tonychiza
tonychiza
I won't lay 10.5 in the playoffs, I don't care who is playing.
MikeHawk22
MikeHawk22
Yes, they use alt lines and juice it up.  That protects them on the teasers
Damaged99
Damaged99
Hard Rock is cool but quite a distance from the strip.  I always end up at Mirage Sportsbook.  Wynn is my favorite casino.
cadman04
cadman04
Yes, all of the Packer backers must have arrived in Vegas this afternoon and pushed up that ml, now at -240.
ct4242
ct4242
NYG +4.5 is the right side on this one.  Their def is superior.  Should be a heck of a game!
Jrod6
Jrod6
Texans are hardly a lock.  They got completely blown out in rd 1 last yr at home 30-0.  Their offense is offensive and Oak has some solid pass rushers:  Mack and Irvin.  This one will be ugly, no doubt.  I wouldn't touch it....
DaGmen
DaGmen
Why not just take a parlay on Sea ml, Pitt ml and NYG +4.5 if you like them to win SU?  No need to cross zero with Sea.
Odds1_stinker
Odds1_stinker
Quote Originally Posted by concavecapital:

You obviously have wayyyyy too much bias Gavin towards our team.  I on the other hand am a realist.   This team was done after earl broke his leg.  His replacement Terrell is pure trash.  Mccrae ain't nothin either.   Lane is always getting beat.   Shead and Sherman need to do their jobs or it's game over.   they are second vs the run which will help vs Atlantas duel threat.   But you are in never land if you think Seattle has any shot at all in Atlanta.  I mean hell.  If it wasn't for a 9er fumble at midfield , they most definitely would have gone down 21-6.   The team plays ONE HALF of football.   Pretty sure that doesn't worm in this league.  Sorry pal.   I won 2500 win they beat Denver in the SB then backed em again for 7500 vs New England and well.  We all know how that ended.   Best of luck 

End rant 


Agreed, I also backed Sea huge in SB vs Den, then again vs NE.  I still can't get over that one....Anyway, I just don't think it an impossible path in the NFC for either Sea or NYG to make it through.  Neither ATL or Dall is battle tested.  Great records, but it takes more than that in the playoffs.  Coaching, poise, mental toughness.  I have Pitt/NYG at +7600, adding Pitt/Sea today +3200. 

tonychiza
tonychiza
Agreed, I believe it is more likely that Sea wins by 14+ than Det winning SU.  Teaser looks good but I would add NYG +11.5. 
glyde69
glyde69

You can grab the Hous ml -195, that seems safer to me, this could easily be an ugly FG game.

wildcat95
wildcat95
Agreed, the only value you get is matching them up with a long shot in the NFC.  The Giants have a legit path.  I strongly considered NE/NYG at +2250.  Then you are only taking one dog and hedging them vs GB, Dall, and Atl/Sea winner.  Those numbers didn't make sense.  Basically, NE has one semi-challenging game to make it through to SB.  They will be -6.5 vs KC and -4.5 vs Pitt.
BIGfnPOO
BIGfnPOO
NFL Betting / 50/520 / View Post

NYG

wildcat95
wildcat95

Pats are beatable but it will be very tough for the Chiefs to go on the road and pull off the upset.  Actually, I don't see them getting past the Steelers at Arrowhead. 5dimes has the Pats -295 vs Chiefs.  I would expect around -260 vs Pitt.

Mark_The_Narc
Mark_The_Narc
I have been playing futures for 20+ yrs.  Once in a while you can find a book who has been sleeping and hasn't updated theirs to closely match others.  It sounds enticing but you really have to figure out what future odds will be as that dark horse advances.  Personally, I like Pitt and NYG.  We all know that the Pats are chalk and will draw tons of public $.  In my opinion, they would be -240 vs Pitt in the conf champ so if you can get +975, you are getting value with Pitt.  Their path is not impossible.  Obviously you are assuming they will discard of Mia this week, but then would be a very small dog to KC.  So their biggest obstacle resides in Foxboro on Jan 22.  I believe they would be a slight dog to Dallas in SB, probably a pick em vs any other NFC opponent.
Mark_The_Narc
Mark_The_Narc
Futures bets are all about crunching the numbers and predicting future odds.  Obviously, you don't believe they will win the SB.  So let's just assume they beat Oak this weekend.  Then they would go to NE.  5dimes has prelim lines on future rounds and are favored by 14 with a whopping -900 ml.  So if you lay $500 at 100/1, that pays $50K on your futures ticket.  You would have to hedge it by laying $4500/500 in rd 2.  If NE wins, you break even.  If Hous wins, they would go to KC or Pitt in the conf champ where they would be dd dogs again.  So you would have to lay -500 in this rd to hedge.  This equals a $25000/5000 hedge and if they somehow win this game, you are in for $30K vs the NFC winner, who would be at least a TD fav.  So the answer is NO on this future bet.  You would do better to pick a different team or just bet Hous ml every game.
wildcat95
wildcat95
You need to add Pitt v NYG, much better odds
wildcat95
wildcat95
If I had waited an hour, the line jumped to +8400 on 5dimes.  Maybe I will double up, but then you are laying around $25K on a Pats hedge.
TrueAscension
TrueAscension
I think the right side of this is Seattle.  I fully expected the line to open at 7.  When they opened at 7.5, it seems like the books are begging for Det $.  I feel fairly comfortable at +14.5 but the Lions def has been getting torched lately, now they have to go outside to arguably the most difficult stadium for roadies in the leage.
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