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Thread Author vaas187 Post Entries
packersbackers
packersbackers
markhammmm in the house! 

lets get it packer! 
IGotMoney2Blow
IGotMoney2Blow

yeah. mines +230 

croatia to win is +370 i think 

shadowmagic808
shadowmagic808
not sure on this. I like no tiebreaker first set a lot. its worth a small flyer on no tiebreaker in match. 
personally I'm on France ml + no tie breaker 1 set. and then France 1H/FT + Joker 3-1 sets 
vaas187
vaas187
there is zero value there though. the play would be france/draw no bet. the juice isn't worth it though. 
vaas187
vaas187
no i am not. i took a few weeks off and was going to actually wait until nfl....

i love joker tomorrow. he will win, I'm not giving anderson any credit here. i don't like the spreads though. 3-1 seems like the best value but i agree it is a bit of a crapshoot. and the capping for under 38.5 makes sense....just unsure so far. 

I've talked myself out of the soccer game, i don't know why.....i was liking croatia to lift all week. the more i think i am getting pulled into france. it just makes sense. 

the most logical play may be the draw here, as i figure a lot of money is being put on croatia to lift, and france ml specifically....the draw hedges it perfectly...france lifts in extra time? I'm just looking on what would benefit vegas the most here. 
vaas187
vaas187
im torn with my morning parlay.....

for tennis. torn with Under 38.5 +100 or Djokovic 3-1 sets. 

So Anderson has played over 15 hours of tennis since Monday, and now faces one of the best returners the game has ever seen in Novak Djokovic.
 
Djokovic had his own marathon match against Nadal but that five hour battle was split across two days and his body will find it much easier to recover than Anderson given the height differential with Anderson standing at 2.03m
 
Fatigue will have severe consequences for Anderson's gamestyle, his serve & movement will be significantly slower as the match progresses.
 
He depends on his serve for winning cheap points but the court conditions aren't going to help him either, the ball is bouncing higher and will be more comfortable for Djokovic to return.

I want the big value on 3-1 but under 38.5 seems so much safer. this is basically a bet on joker to win the first set. I also don't think there will be a tie breaker in that first set.


other play I'm leaning is france ml but had been sitting on croatia to lift @ +200 for so long.....i just think croatia hasn't been THAT inspiring, their exhausted....couldnt close russia inside 90....england was underwhelming to me.


thoughts ? 
Achilles1629
Achilles1629
Tennis / Del Potro/ Simon / View Post

over was the play. simon has played well this tournament. 

that being said , 48.5 is worth a shot live now. i see del po taking this third 6-4 or less.....

IGotMoney2Blow
IGotMoney2Blow

I like Monfils and I agree Djokovic wins Wimbledon 

accountant4life
accountant4life

Just need munier to steal a set here....

accountant4life
accountant4life

I’m being a bit over exaggerated. I love the guy as an athlete. He is unreal....I carry zero negative energy for him, except at this moment. The past 3 times I’ve wagered backing him he has faultered. Today he is smashing. I wasn’t convinced by his win against kukushkin, so I took over 32.5 expecting some effort from munier. still early, we’ll see. Feels like a 25 game match. 

accountant4life
accountant4life

I have this too. 

 

I hate nadal. Fuck. Rolling so far. I hope we see a zerev repeat and he implodes. 

Over 32.5. Had good analysis for this, I still dont know why I took it 

specimen24
specimen24

Surprising result. Brazil was the better overall dominated the game but tactically Belgium just killed them. Belgium won by an own goal but tactically it was impressive. 

Im rooting for Russia now but I think it’s Frances tournament to lose at this point. 

ryuhn
ryuhn

Brazil had lost its “value” but I still think they win. 

Honestly, it’s not coming home. England isn’t winning it, not worth the hedge in them imo. I’d rather take Russia than England.

if I’m you, I’m taking brazil, even Uruguay before anyone else...good luck

specimen24
specimen24

Honestly, if I had to take a flyer on this I’m taking the draw, I feel it’s underpriced here.....but I can’t back down form brazil. This could easily go to penalties though. The value is on the draw, or brazil and btts. 

mr_bollox
mr_bollox

Lololol ya mom agrees so it’s a sound play eh? I was already leaning both my plays. Hard to talk somebody out of what they believe.....I liked your opinion though. Solidified my thinking of it. Taking a huge risk with Brazil ml and btts but I bought brazil winning the whole thing and believe they’ve only gotten stronger with each game. Such a deeper sounder team than Belgium just visually if you’ve watched the wc. I feel my parlay really makes sense but game still has to be played. France could easily steal this 1-0 but I actually lean Uruguay to advance here in extra time. 


Gl buddy

vaas187
vaas187
Soccer / World Cup Bets / View Post
URUGUAY +0.5 

  • We’re more than happy to take Uruguay on the spread here despite the fitness of Cavani being unknown. Should he not be fit Uruguay will still offer a legitimate goal scoring threat with Suarez and Stuani likely starting up top. 
  • France’s 4-3 win over Argentina has been blown out of proportion in our opinion, most teams at this stage of the World Cup would have carved through that weak defence. Uruguay are going to offer a much tougher test
  • As we mentioned in our last preview, Uruguay have won every single game they’ve played in 2018 conceding just once.
  • Portugal were unbeaten competitively for almost 2 years before losing to Uruguay last weekend
  • Uruguay have conceded only 1 goal from 360 mins of play at this World Cup
  • France have struggled a lot against teams this World Cup who sit deep and defend well. Against Australia they relied on a penalty and a fluke own goal to get past Australia and then against Denmark we seen a 0-0 stalemate when they created next to nothing.
  • France haven’t gotten the best out of their team and are still searching for the best system. Giroud was a passenger in the game against Argentina and despite Pavards wonderstrike he still looks a weak link in defence.
  • France have played Uruguay 5 times since 2002 and have failed to score a single goal in any of those games (4 draws 1 loss)
  • In their last game Uruguay limited Portugal mostly to shots from outside the box protecting their area very well.
specimen24
specimen24

No way Belgium has more talent or class than Brazil. They can’t hang with them over 120 mins. Their history shows they can’t  hang with anyone really. Their qualifying was horrible. Their history is horrible. We’ll see. Could be a 1-1 game. I just don’t see it. I actually figured 2-1 maybe 3-1 Brazil. I think Belgium wilters, Brazil has looked better after each game and half. Belgium. Not so much. 

vaas187
vaas187
Soccer / World Cup Bets / View Post
BRAZIL AND BTTS LOGIC
here’s the write up for those who are interested 

  • As we seen in the Japan game Belgium are vulnerable at the back, especially with wingbacks Meunier and Carrasco, both should have a really tough night with Brazil's fullbacks + Neymar and Willian exploiting the flanks.
  • Belgium have given up 2+ goals in half their games at this World Cup, the exceptions being a weak Panama and England's second string team
  • Belgiums games at this World Cup have averaged 4 per game. The only game that didn't go Over 2.5 was the meaningless game with the English
  • Since their opening game Brazil have scored twice in all of their games (Costa Rica, Serbia, and Mexico) Against Mexico to team generated 2.5xG in chances and we expect see something similar in this game.
  • Looking at Brazil's last 15 in all competitions we see a goal scored average of 1.9 goals per game
  • Under Tite Brazil are averaging just over 2 Goals per game (25 games)
  • Expect Brazil to dominate this game but don't be surprised to see Belgium contribute to the goals tally either, although they are weak at the back they offer a real threat going forward.
freestlyin
freestlyin
Soccer / WORLD CUP 2018 / View Post

Gl bro

vaas187
vaas187
Soccer / World Cup Bets / View Post

So both the write ups were posted above obviously. 

Just going for it here....fuck it

uruguay +0.5/over 2.5 Brazil parlay 

$1000 pays $4296

brazil win and btts +352 $1500 

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